Both the surge and the fall aren't there, OK the biggest optimists were too optimistic but there aren't many of them. Anyone realistic should expect it to hurt, but a jab of a knife is very unlikely to kill you, hurts though of course. There is no precedent to base anything on, for boredom's sake, we can still see the broken window-theory in effect, that's not someone told me it is what I think with my very limited understanding of the actual situation and all the perfectly justified redicule that comes with it, maybe I have too much trust in my judgement but it worked so far for me.