Visor's Small Mafia Game [Concluded]

[Al Sipsclar]

i have never seen Khaan post so much! I did not think GH was scummy. and nothing yet from Khaan to change my mind.
Vote: Choxorn

This was a terrible way to clear khaan and condemn choxorn.

I can also lynch khaan or atheotes today, maybe novice, too.
Then Newyn or Monty or El Barto.
BSmith and Renata probably never, though I'm going to tinfoil about BSmith.

[novice]

To see if novice was going to be willing to vote GH/Khaan, because I think it possible they're teammates.

We're not, but we can revisit that if Khaan flips scum.

Khaan is a stronger scum read right now than Pizza is.

Reading your Exhibit A post I tend to agree. It still feels like not lynching Pizza while there is support for it is a mistake though. I agree that Renata is top townie currently, and if she's scum she's very confident in so off-handedly claiming that. So I guess the onus is on you, Renata. If you insist on Khaan as today's lynch I'll sheep you.

Vote: Khaan

Lacking better leads and proper sleeping hours, vote: Montmorency.

That's not very productive.

This was a terrible way to clear khaan and condemn choxorn.

Very true. As Pizza said, that is undoubtedly the worst vote of the game.*

*OK I guess my/Riedquat's Choxorn vote is bad also, but as a neutral observer it was Atheotes' vote that I noticed.

[novice]

Tally as of post 813:

Lynch votes
3 votes: GeneralHankerchief (Renata, BSmith, novice)
2 votes: Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency, Al Sipsclar)
1 votes: atheotes (Askthepizzaguy)
1 votes: Al Sipsclair (seireikhaan)
1 votes: Montmorency (El Barto)

Voting history:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Askthepizzaguy

Askthepizzaguy

GeneralHankerchief

atheotes

Askthepizzaguy

Al Sipsclair

GeneralHankerchief

Montmorency

Askthepizzaguy

GeneralHankerchief

[Montmorency]

Worst case, Khaan is town, Pizza kills Renata tonight, takes control. Pizza has little to say about Khaan, and he's preparing a soft landing for himself tomorrow.

Pizza-atheotes, or Pizza-Khaan? Pizza shouldn't ignore a partner while under heavy suspicion himself, no less putting up a third partner for the lynch. I think any Al Sipsclar scum pairings with Pizza are much less likely.

I'm going to venture Barto as a general third-candidate for scum team.

Unvote: Pizza

Vote: Khaan

I'll finish what I started, but if the wagon collapses then I hope it doesn't migrate to Al Sipclar over Pizza.

[Newyn]

Vote: Aetheotes
Sheeping Pizza for better or worse. I've been distracted too much by other stuff lately to pay too much attention.

[Renata]

Worst case, Khaan is town, Pizza kills Renata tonight, takes control. Pizza has little to say about Khaan, and he's preparing a soft landing for himself tomorrow.

Pizza-atheotes, or Pizza-Khaan? Pizza shouldn't ignore a partner while under heavy suspicion himself, no less putting up a third partner for the lynch. I think any Al Sipsclar scum pairings with Pizza are much less likely.

I'm going to venture Barto as a general third-candidate for scum team.

Unvote: Pizza

Vote: Khaan

I'll finish what I started, but if the wagon collapses then I hope it doesn't migrate to Al Sipclar over Pizza.

If Khaan's lynched and is town, where do you go next? If Pizza's lynched and is town, where next?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza-Khaan-atheotes-Al Sips needs to be narrowed down.

I'm not voting for khaan.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This was a terrible way to clear khaan and condemn choxorn.

I can also lynch khaan or atheotes today, maybe novice, too.
Then Newyn or Monty or El Barto.
BSmith and Renata probably never, though I'm going to tinfoil about BSmith.

Al would be able to lynch atheotes today if he were to vote with me. But that's not happening.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't create my suspects as convenient scapegoats I think I'd be able to lynch today. There's clear resistance to votes landing on these folks.

I can't convince my townies to vote there, so you guys better hope I'm wrong.

[Renata]

At this point I just want to end this game and move on. It's not been a good vibe for me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

At this point I just want to end this game and move on. It's not been a good vibe for me.

I believe that lynching khaan will hasten that end, yes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Once again atheotes is just skating through the round. You want a clear alternative to khaan, it has to be him.

[Renata]

I believe that lynching khaan will hasten that end, yes.

I can't trust you, is the problem. You're basing your entire defense of khaan -- without actually examining his posts at all, mind -- on meta that I can't follow myself and must therefore take your word for. And you're being manipulative toward me in a way I'd vastly prefer to believe is a scum ploy.

[Renata]

Monty, do you hear me? You don't get to lynch Pizza tomorrow if Khaan doesn't work out. Either today, or not at all (unless khaan is lynched and comes up scum, of course).

So make your choice, who do you want more?

[Renata]

vote: Atheotes

I'm taking myself out of the picture for a while. Sick of people laying off their votes on me.

[Renata]

I don't know if we get told if it's LYLO, but could it be right now? If four mafia, we lynch today, kill at night, 8 left. That's parity. Three mislynches sounds a bit low, though, even with what appears to be a failed vig shot.

If it's three, then there's one more shot at it. I could almost see Monty teeing up Pizza for tomorrow knowing it would win the game -- realistically I think we need to vote in a completely different suspicion group tomorrow if today's lynch doesn't work out. Tell me your opinion on this Monty.

With even numbers we could also no-lynch today, though I don't see much benefit to that beyond likely leaving me out of the decision making.

[Montmorency]

If Khaan's lynched and is town, where do you go next? If Pizza's lynched and is town, where next?

You, atheotes and Newyn/Bart. If there are three scum - and I don't think there are 2 or 4 - then tomorrow should begin LYLO, so it either has to work out or take a totally different approach starting now...

I could almost see Monty teeing up Pizza for tomorrow knowing it would win the game

Is novice my partner in that case?

With even numbers we could also no-lynch today,

It would have to be unanimous.

[Renata]

Those are your next options either way?

[Renata]

Only thing I don't want to see is Pizza-town then Khaan or the reverse. I should probably analyze wolf-wolf possibilities more than I have, but I'm not going to. Right now, while I could see a team involving one of them and not the other, I think we're better off not to try to double down on the Pizza/Khaan idea if wrong the first time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In response to Renata about who tomorrow if khaan is town, you said:

You, atheotes and Newyn/Bart.

We don't have 4 lynches left.

And if you're saying you'd go for atheotes tomorrow, what's the difference? Why is it so important that we not discuss atheotes "today". "Not today". Your words.

Why is tomorrow better?

If you're willing to go khaan ---> atheotes, why aren't you willing to look at atheotes ----> Khaan?

My guess is because khaan's a critical mislynch that may not happen if it doesn't happen today. But enlighten me.

[Montmorency]

If you lynch atheotes today and he is town, then I am certain it's Pizza-Khaan, and Visor have mercy tomorrow. Together those two could lynch anyone they like.

One of Pizza and Khaan have to resolve today, unless I'm taken out of the picture and whoever is left sets a new agenda.

[seireikhaan]

This was a terrible way to clear khaan and condemn choxorn.

I can also lynch khaan or atheotes today, maybe novice, too.
Then Newyn or Monty or El Barto.
BSmith and Renata probably never, though I'm going to tinfoil about BSmith.

Rather silly analysis, by the way. This is some social commentary on me generally being a lurker in most games, and anyone who takes it as "clearing" is a silly goose.

[Renata]

Khaan, atheotes or Al Sips?

[seireikhaan]

Khaan, atheotes or Al Sips?

Al Sips.

[Renata]

Al Sips.

vote: Al Sipsclar

Can't believe I'm doing this. But we need both options.
@novice -- why was scum vig your working theory?

[Montmorency]

how do I suddenly drop off the radar?

OK, in that case, who wants to lynch you? Me? Not Pizza. He would propose me or atheotes. Would you help me lynch Pizza in this scenario - or whom would you cast eyes upon? If you and Pizza are scum, it's catastrophe. If you are scum but Pizza is not, there are numerous other candidates who would pick up 2+ votes before you. If you are town and Pizza is not, then you don't seem to have any good ideas to turn things around.

I figure these odds:

If you are lynched as scum today, 75%+ of victory.
If you are lynched as town today, 50% of victory.
If you are not lynched as town, and town is lynched instead, 33% of victory.
If you are not lynched as scum, and town is lynched instead, 10% of victory.


That's why you must die.

[Montmorency]

If Renata is scum, GG.

[Renata]

I'm not. That's why I always get shot tonight.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why Khaan must be lynched usually should include some reason why he's even scum in the first place, but you do you.

[novice]

@novice -- why was scum vig your working theory?

Because both Stork and Zack were very obviously town.