French Presidential Election

[Brenus]

"it's a race between Fillon and Le Pen right now." That is what the media try to convince voters in order to have Fillon elected.
Problem for Fillon is he was Sarkozy's Prime Minister for 4 years and has a very reactionary political platform, even if he is trying to backtrack a bit now...
The surprise might be from the "ignored by media" stream.

[edyzmedieval]

Fillon's political platform is more reactionary than the traditional Republican platform, indeed, but it shows that it connects with the Republican electorate because of his surprising victory over both Sarkozy and Juppe.

The next step is the primaries, we will see there who will come out on top.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"it's a race between Fillon and Le Pen right now." That is what the media try to convince voters in order to have Fillon elected.
Problem for Fillon is he was Sarkozy's Prime Minister for 4 years and has a very reactionary political platform, even if he is trying to backtrack a bit now...
The surprise might be from the "ignored by media" stream.

Is there a mechanism whereby a Candidate can win in the first round if they get a high enough percentage
of the vote? I assume not, as that's the mechanism designed to prevent Le Pen being elected.

From the perspective of an Anglo the last president was bizarre, most especially in the way he treated the women in his life but also in the way he dealt with Foreign Relations.

I suspect the Fillion will win, in the current climate a many people will vote Right instead of Left because the Left will refuse to address outsiders as a potential problem despite the damage they inevitably do to social cohesion by their very nature (outsiders are always disruptive).

I don't think Trump and Brexit are simply an "angry backlash", I think they are also genuine expressions of opposition to the general political "direction of travel" in the West.

A lot of people ask why the Welsh voted to leave the EU, completely missing the fact that it was EU regulations against government interference in "competition" that prevented the UK Government from nationalising the Port Talbot Steelworks, and everything else owned by Tata Steel. That's a concrete reason to leave the EU if you're Welsh.

[Husar]

outsiders as a potential problem despite the damage they inevitably do to social cohesion by their very nature (outsiders are always disruptive)

Indeed, it's a common problem all around the world:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/tr...e-holiday.html

Especially poor people are terrible humans:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...her-crowd.html

And they terrify the locals due to their terrible culture:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/1725...h-from-locals/

Something has to be wrong with the "direction of travel" here indeed.

Who invented the terrible idea of travel? Do we really need need bananas, cocoa, cacao, coffee, tea? All this terrible globalism, people should forever stay in the village they were born in. British people would never support the idea to send people all around the world in ships to conquer tea plantations and diamond mines.

I hope that Fillon wins, too, though. I mean, anyone but LePen is okay with me, French politics are weird anyway. Now we have a socialist imposing a seemingly indefinite state of emergency.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Indeed, it's a common problem all around the world:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/tr...e-holiday.html

Especially poor people are terrible humans:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...her-crowd.html

And they terrify the locals due to their terrible culture:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/living/1725...h-from-locals/

Something has to be wrong with the "direction of travel" here indeed.

Who invented the terrible idea of travel? Do we really need need bananas, cocoa, cacao, coffee, tea? All this terrible globalism, people should forever stay in the village they were born in. British people would never support the idea to send people all around the world in ships to conquer tea plantations and diamond mines.

I hope that Fillon wins, too, though. I mean, anyone but LePen is okay with me, French politics are weird anyway. Now we have a socialist imposing a seemingly indefinite state of emergency.

Uh huh.

Sure.

There's nothing wrong with foreigners - but mass movements of people on both a local and an international scale invariable cause disruptions and make things worse for the locals. This is as true for the Upper Middle Class "White Flight" into Devon as it is for the immigrants coming from overseas into the large cities like London.

If all your major politicians tell you that the disruptions, cultural upheavel, loss of housing etc. are good for you or that they can't do anything to help - they're going to vote for someone else.

Witness the rise of the Far Right in Germany after a string of terrorists Attacks perpetrated by Asylum Seekers, where the German Government continues to pursue a policy not only of allowing all Asylum Seekers (regardless of point of entry) but also defends the Schenhan Agreement which allowed one terrorist to cross into the country from Italy over an open border and then back again.

When people get attacking my axes, blown up with bombs and run over by lorries they understandably get scared. If you don't acknowledge that the fear is a rational response and address the cause they will conclude you are not rational and turn to someone else.

We've been hearing it for years here, a refrain something like, "They say the foreigners don't take our jobs but they work for less and undercut us, we can't compete."

Response: "You're a racist/lazy/too greedy."

[Husar]

Uh huh.

Sure.

There's nothing wrong with foreigners - but mass movements of people on both a local and an international scale invariable cause disruptions and make things worse for the locals. This is as true for the Upper Middle Class "White Flight" into Devon as it is for the immigrants coming from overseas into the large cities like London.

If all your major politicians tell you that the disruptions, cultural upheavel, loss of housing etc. are good for you or that they can't do anything to help - they're going to vote for someone else.

They're not saying that. In case you missed it, France is in a state of emergency since the last attacks, laws have been expanded to allow warrantless searches of homes and so on. To say politicians claim they can't do anything is either a lie or ignorance.

Witness the rise of the Far Right in Germany after a string of terrorists Attacks perpetrated by Asylum Seekers, where the German Government continues to pursue a policy not only of allowing all Asylum Seekers (regardless of point of entry) but also defends the Schenhan Agreement which allowed one terrorist to cross into the country from Italy over an open border and then back again.

Why is it important whether he kills people and/or gets caught in Italy or in Germany? Are Germans inherently more deserving of protection than Italians? Master race?
You also forgot to mention that he also crossed from Northern Africa to Italy despite being a known criminal and even though that border is technically closed.

When people get attacking my axes, blown up with bombs and run over by lorries they understandably get scared. If you don't acknowledge that the fear is a rational response and address the cause they will conclude you are not rational and turn to someone else.

It would be more understandable if they were just as scared about getting eaten from inside and demanded similar efforts from the government to stop that from happening. Instead they only seem to get scared by whatever the news and blogs choose as headlines. From an intelligent thinker I demand to see a little more than the carrot dangling in front of his or her eyes.
Can you explain rationally to me why a guy with an axe should scare me more than MRSA or why the truck killing 12 people is scarier than the estimated 3300 traffic deaths in 2016? Is it somehow less scary that you would drive to the bakery and suddenly someone ignoring a redlight T-bones into you and you slowly bleed out with half the bones in your body broken? I've been almost run over by a car a few times and got actually hit and injured by a truck once, but I've never seen someone point a gun at me or murder someone. So if I don't shit my pants every time I cross a street, why should I shit my pants because of terrorism?

Don't say this is relativism because I'm not saying terrorism is okay, I'm asking why it should scare me as much as you think it should.

We've been hearing it for years here, a refrain something like, "They say the foreigners don't take our jobs but they work for less and undercut us, we can't compete."

Response: "You're a racist/lazy/too greedy."

Wasn't the foreigners who thought capitalism is the system we need and competition is better for all of us. So why is the foreigner less deserving of a job than the local? Master race? Tribalism? Where were you when Intel and NVidia outcompeted AMD? Did you shed some tears and complain that AMD employees did not deserve to be laid off just because Intel bribed retailers to not offer their products? Did you ever complain about colonialism because the Zulus could not compete with the British due to spears vs guns?
And why can a British person not compete with an immigrant? Does an immigrant not need shelter and food and possibly entertainment etc.?
And don't immigrants pay the same taxes etc. that the locals pay?
There is literally no reason why a local could not compete with an immigrant, the locals even have the language bonus, the local bonus, they know the laws better, they can organize better and so on. So how can you say they cannot compete? Is it due to the inferior culture of not wanting to share a room with two other people? And then whine that the younger generations are too entitled, lol....

Even funnier if you consider that Trump and the AfD advocate the same kind of trickle down economics that caused a lot of the problems in the first place...

[Viking]

It would be more understandable if they were just as scared about getting eaten from inside and demanded similar efforts from the government to stop that from happening. Instead they only seem to get scared by whatever the news and blogs choose as headlines. From an intelligent thinker I demand to see a little more than the carrot dangling in front of his or her eyes.

This is beside the point. Note that people campaigning for awareness surrounding car accidents or pathogenic bacteria are not normally labeled autophobes or bacteriophobes.

If someone is suspected to have been infected with MRSA, they will likely be put in isolation; whereas if immigrants from some countries are much more likely than others to turn into terrorists, this does not appear to have any impact on immigration policy at all. How does the 'intelligent thinker' justify this?

[Husar]

This is beside the point. Note that people campaigning for awareness surrounding car accidents or pathogenic bacteria are not normally labeled autophobes or bacteriophobes.

If someone is suspected to have been infected with MRSA, they will likely be put in isolation; whereas if immigrants from some countries are much more likely than others to turn into terrorists, this does not appear to have any impact on immigration policy at all. How does the 'intelligent thinker' justify this?

That's a terrible comparison because it does not work. If someone performs a terrorist attack, they are also put in isolation, it's called prison.

Your impact-on-immigration-policy-example is just as terrible, or do you put all older people and infants into medical isolation because they have a higher likelihood to get infected?

Besides, it is not besides the point because I have not seen autophobes and bacteriophobes found new parties that advocate putting old people in isolation because they cause more car accidents and spread so many germs and then actually get a large share of votes. Even though statistically their issues would seem to warrant such a response far more in terms of dead people and direct cost on society etc.

[Brenus]

"Is there a mechanism whereby a Candidate can win in the first round if they get a high enough percentage
of the vote? I assume not, as that's the mechanism designed to prevent Le Pen being elected." No. You have to get 50% + 1 voice at the first round if you want to be elected, then relative majority at the second.
The trick is you can stay on the race if you get 12,5 % of the vote.
For the moment, as polls goes, 4 candidates can qualify: Le Pen, Fillon, Mélenchon and Macron.
I don't believe in them as Macron is the candidate of the establishment and of the news agencies.
However, I believe that Le Pen, Fillon and Mélenchon are in position to be in the second tour.
Le Pen is fighting her own niece ( The Front National is a federation of parties, from Royalistes, extreme catholics to Nazi and Pagans with all the crescendo of the extreme right to right extrem).
Fillon is losing grounds. He is the candidate of a extreme reactionary right and his programme starts to be known for what it is, a big leap backwards. Even his side starts to realize he has to change his speeches. Unfortunately for him, a video of his financial platform has been published on youtube and largely shared...
Le Pen can count on the abstention of the left and the anti-establishment feeling largely spread in the french society, and an absence of questioning of her program, if she has one except "death to foreigners"by the media that use her in order to boost their candidate.
The third one, Mélenchon, might be the out-sider claiming back the leftist vote. His challenge is to convince them to go to vote.
The Pseudo-Socialist Party, whoever they will choose, has not a chance.