French Presidential Election

[Brenus]

"Specifically - how many people unenthused by the two "mainstream" candidates in contention will assume Le Pen won't win in the first round? If Le Pen can mobilise all her supporters in the first round and the other candidates under-perform due to apathy she could win outright. Assuming she doesn't win outright you still have to account for the recent skew in polling suggesting Le Pen's support might be under-represented." Unlikely. We have roughly 4 or 5 potential 2nd turner. Fillon (Conservative) who is having hard time because paying his family on Taxes payers money... Macron, the air balloon full of helium, favourite and champion of the media. He made a political suicide last week about French Colonisation and Crime against Humanity. Hamon, coming from the actual government, hardly socialist, having no programme but a balance sheet near to bankruptcy statement... Le Pen of course, no programme, but banking on the successive failures of previous government to deliver jobs, and blaming the foreigners... Having problem with taxes, but her base doesn't care. Jean Luc Mélenchon, leftist, against austerity, regain the flag and the symbol of the Republic from the Extreme Right. Born in Morocco, from Spanish ascendant... Black sheep for the media, and the only danger for the upper-class.
They are all around 13-15%.
All will be decided by the 60 % who didn't go to vote the last elections, tired to be betrayed by politicians...
The moods in France is the "great sweep", the "dégagisme", Fillon being the last victim of it. Le Pen can count on her basis, but figures show she didn't increase her base, it is the abstentionist as I who will make the difference if we decide to go to vote. We usually do when Le Pen is on. As Tristuskhan said, 25 % or even 30% is nothing if 75 or 70% vote against.
She was 3rd at the last election, and got 2 Representatives at the National Assembly...

[Tristuskhan]

We have roughly 4 or 5 potential 2nd turner. Fillon (Conservative) who is having hard time because paying his family on Taxes payers money... Macron, the air balloon full of helium, favourite and champion of the media. He made a political suicide last week about French Colonisation and Crime against Humanity. Hamon, coming from the actual government, hardly socialist, having no programme but a balance sheet near to bankruptcy statement... Le Pen of course, no programme, but banking on the successive failures of previous government to deliver jobs, and blaming the foreigners... Having problem with taxes, but her base doesn't care. Jean Luc Mélenchon, leftist, against austerity, regain the flag and the symbol of the Republic from the Extreme Right. Born in Morocco, from Spanish ascendant... Black sheep for the media, and the only danger for the upper-class.
They are all around 13-15%.

We'll know this afternoon if we can add Bayrou to the list. Someone educated, at least, but with a whole buch of incompetent friends (actual and potential: treason is coming among the smoothly conservatives).

And the thing about Airship Macron crashing on colonial memories: too bad. What does he think, that everyone has a good knowledge of colonial history? The conquest of Algeria was a huge series of crimes against humanity (awful... but few, few really know about it, In France and in Algeria too) but puting all this stuff on the political scene is pure foolishness.