Trump Thread

[HopAlongBunny]

I think Mueller just started what will be a long road.
The first thing to establish is that interference did occur; done.
Teasing out the threads from that fact will likely be like a dripping faucet.
Short-term it gives Mueller cover; dismissal just hits so many buttons now that its a national security issue.

[HopAlongBunny]

Threads? We got threads all over!
Rick Gates flipping on Manafort? Looks like it.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...-manafort.html

Political version of water torture? (drip-drip-drip)
Maybe!

[Montmorency]

I skimmed through the indictment, didn't read it thoroughly, but it could be summed up with "much ado about nothing".

There were some people who used faked and/or stolen identities to set up pages on social media. Russian government is not explicitly mentioned. No amounts of money were mentioned, except in one case - 1.25 million $ monthly, but that was not the amount spent but rather monthly budget of an organization that operates in many countries of the world. Even if the entire budget was spent on influencing American elections for two years without spending anything elsewhere and not paying a cent for staff and infrastructure, it's not even 30 million. Double or triple or quadruple that and it is still a drop in the ocean compared to the money spent on the elections by just two candidates.

And, still, even journalists can't draw conclusions and are still sticking with the story "Russia supported Trump" even when the indictment says that the same people who tried to rally support for Trump, also helped promote "not my president" when he won. The goal was never supporting Trump, but promoting political instability. Only now are some picking up on that. The problem is, the mass hysteria created about Russian support for Trump is now proving detrimental to serious discourse on the issue.

New York Times today had an editorial mentioning US meddling in the elections over the world. They had experts counting both overt and covert meddling in various elections since the WW2. They came up with 81 for USA and 39 for USSR/Russia, and at least in my humble opinion, those are quite conservative figures. This is nothing new, this is same old, same old, just digital instead of analog.

When you have mainstream media that's more interested in click bait qualities of an article rather than its substance, you're gonna get stories like this.

We've been over this.

1. "Meddling" is not new. This mode of meddling is new, and carries new implications for normal political process.
2.(Fairly productive) Russian attempts to install Russia-friendly right-wing governments throughout the world is alarming in itself, assuming you don't hate America/Western Europe more than anything.
3. US misconduct excuses nothing of Russian misconduct, without reflexively excusing the US misconduct in turn and leaving one flapping in the breeze.
4. We know Russia supported Trump - they supported him for the purpose of creating political instability. Further muddying the waters after the election (continuous since that time, up to now), especially after Trump has his foreign policy maneuvering checked by Congress and media, is a logical and consistent step.
5. Targeted efforts outside legal constraint may be more effective than across-the-board spending in a heavily-monitored organization. As far as full-time employees, the indictment refers to "hundreds" at the IRA while the Clinton campaign maintained 3900-4200 (~900 + ~3000) and the Trump campaign ~900.
6. This story does not relate to the other elements of the Russian effort to undermine the election, and it's rather inelegant to deride them individually as unimpressive if you know the totality is greater.
7. To repeat, we are still under attack, and there is nothing on the public agenda to counter ongoing Russian efforts. It might be easier to acknowledge nonchalance if the government had already taken effective action against the ratf***ing.


If ultimately a concrete and knowing quid-pro-quo is revealed and Trump judged guilty of various crimes, I hope you wouldn't feel the need to point out that it's either not that a big deal since there hadn't (hopefully) been an explicit Trumpian coup attempt, a civil war, or thousands of political dissidents disappeared, or else that we deserve it all for having similarly compromised the leadership of other countries.

[CrossLOPER]

This is nothing new, this is same old, same old, just digital instead of analog.

As mentioned before, it's the mode through which this is being done, rather than whether it's been done before. What we are seeing is that mass manipulation can not only be spread easily and cheaply through social media without physical intrusion, but also automated.

[HopAlongBunny]

What we are seeing is that mass manipulation can not only be spread easily and cheaply through social media without physical intrusion, but also automated.

Is this how the robots take over?

[Sarmatian]

We've been over this.

1. "Meddling" is not new. This mode of meddling is new, and carries new implications for normal political process.
2.(Fairly productive) Russian attempts to install Russia-friendly right-wing governments throughout the world is alarming in itself, assuming you don't hate America/Western Europe more than anything.
3. US misconduct excuses nothing of Russian misconduct, without reflexively excusing the US misconduct in turn and leaving one flapping in the breeze.
4. We know Russia supported Trump - they supported him for the purpose of creating political instability. Further muddying the waters after the election (continuous since that time, up to now), especially after Trump has his foreign policy maneuvering checked by Congress and media, is a logical and consistent step.
5. Targeted efforts outside legal constraint may be more effective than across-the-board spending in a heavily-monitored organization. As far as full-time employees, the indictment refers to "hundreds" at the IRA while the Clinton campaign maintained 3900-4200 (~900 + ~3000) and the Trump campaign ~900.
6. This story does not relate to the other elements of the Russian effort to undermine the election, and it's rather inelegant to deride them individually as unimpressive if you know the totality is greater.
7. To repeat, we are still under attack, and there is nothing on the public agenda to counter ongoing Russian efforts. It might be easier to acknowledge nonchalance if the government had already taken effective action against the ratf***ing.


If ultimately a concrete and knowing quid-pro-quo is revealed and Trump judged guilty of various crimes, I hope you wouldn't feel the need to point out that it's either not that a big deal since there hadn't (hopefully) been an explicit Trumpian coup attempt, a civil war, or thousands of political dissidents disappeared, or else that we deserve it all for having similarly compromised the leadership of other countries.

We have, but obviously we haven't reached a common conclusion.

1) Of course the mode is new, but propaganda is propaganda. From town criers to church sermons, to newspapers, then radio and television, then internet and social mode. There's going to be a new mode in 10 years.

2) The point is more about helping "Russian friendly" than "right wing". Again, it is a two way street. USA efforts have been to create a global economic community that will be dominated by US and exclude and isolate Russia and China. I consider that approach dangerous and not sustainable long term. At best you'll have those two countries imploding and creating instability in the entire world and at worst a war.

3) It kind of does, for two reasons. First, there's no impartial authority to which Russia (or any other nation) can bring this issue, so they can only decide whether to take it or fight back in the same way. Second reason - it would actually mean something if USA did stuff like that in the past but has stopped now. Of course, USA continually meddles in Russia and many other countries in the world, and it has been doing so even while Russia has been meddling in this election and will continue to do so whether Russia meddles in US internal affairs or not.

4) Yes. The point is that supporting Trump was not a goal but the means.

5) Ok.

6) Ok, so the totality is what? Russia meddled and had minor to no influence in swaying voters.

7) Really? Under attack? We're obviously too far apart to conduct a meaningful discussion on this issue.

Behind all of this, the reality is that US simply isn't ready to acknowledge the current situation in the world and adapt accordingly. It still tries to preserve to unipolar system it has grown so fond of. It doesn't want to let go of Bretton Woods system, it doesn't want to relinquish control of world's financial and political institutions and is actively trying to exclude and isolate any potential rivals for power. At the moment those are Russia and China, tomorrow it will be someone else.

It's not going to work in the long term and even the best case scenario for US would be a loss for most of the rest of the world. It can all be summed up with "there's gonna be shit in the world so we delay facing the shit in the USA". At one point USA will have to face those shits and clean them up or drown in them. The longer they wait, more shit both USA and the rest of the world will have to face.

Screw Putin, Putin is a consequence of that. Take that away and Putins around the world will find that people aren't actually so fond of them.

[CrossLOPER]

Screw Putin, Putin is a consequence of that. Take that away and Putins around the world will find that people aren't actually so fond of them.

Putin and Trump are the consequences of the same delusional nationalistic fervor being grasped at by those who have been forgotten by uncaring systems. The US system is uncaring because those who are doing well have the greatest resources to utilize the system to do even better. The Russian system is uncaring because it hasn't had a functional system since the high Middle Ages and continues to prove that even a pile of garbage can resemble civilization if you squint hard enough.

Which one is worse? Ask the ones on the bottom.

On another point - I agree that Russia has been subject to isolation, but that is mostly because it insists on living in its own reality where anything it does is justified because "everyone else is doing it" and that any dissenting opinion is the result of "foreign troublemakers". The PRC? I have no idea why China is incapable of performing far better than it does. It has the base for it, but still insists on trying to drive the economy to its own ends, and failing every time, managing to further destroy the environment and brutalize its people. It also does the "troublemakers" line, but has stern older women deliver the line.

The US has problems, but problems like having a Honda with 150000 miles on it. Russia and China were never functional to begin with and will never be functional because they insist on having this little microcosm that only seems to work when no one realizes that there is an alternative.

[Montmorency]

We have, but obviously we haven't reached a common conclusion.

1) Of course the mode is new, but propaganda is propaganda. From town criers to church sermons, to newspapers, then radio and television, then internet and social mode. There's going to be a new mode in 10 years.

2) The point is more about helping "Russian friendly" than "right wing". Again, it is a two way street. USA efforts have been to create a global economic community that will be dominated by US and exclude and isolate Russia and China. I consider that approach dangerous and not sustainable long term. At best you'll have those two countries imploding and creating instability in the entire world and at worst a war.

3) It kind of does, for two reasons. First, there's no impartial authority to which Russia (or any other nation) can bring this issue, so they can only decide whether to take it or fight back in the same way. Second reason - it would actually mean something if USA did stuff like that in the past but has stopped now. Of course, USA continually meddles in Russia and many other countries in the world, and it has been doing so even while Russia has been meddling in this election and will continue to do so whether Russia meddles in US internal affairs or not.

4) Yes. The point is that supporting Trump was not a goal but the means.

5) Ok.

6) Ok, so the totality is what? Russia meddled and had minor to no influence in swaying voters.

7) Really? Under attack? We're obviously too far apart to conduct a meaningful discussion on this issue.

Behind all of this, the reality is that US simply isn't ready to acknowledge the current situation in the world and adapt accordingly. It still tries to preserve to unipolar system it has grown so fond of. It doesn't want to let go of Bretton Woods system, it doesn't want to relinquish control of world's financial and political institutions and is actively trying to exclude and isolate any potential rivals for power. At the moment those are Russia and China, tomorrow it will be someone else.

It's not going to work in the long term and even the best case scenario for US would be a loss for most of the rest of the world. It can all be summed up with "there's gonna be shit in the world so we delay facing the shit in the USA". At one point USA will have to face those shits and clean them up or drown in them. The longer they wait, more shit both USA and the rest of the world will have to face.

Screw Putin, Putin is a consequence of that. Take that away and Putins around the world will find that people aren't actually so fond of them.

Like, "war never changes"? Guns, planes, nuclear weapons may be nothing new, just another tool of destruction - but the political consequences and the rules of engagement change drastically. Keep in mind, most people probably would have had no real problem with Putin publicly announcing, "We would like to see X_Candidate in office this year because from Russia's perspective..." and leaving it at that.

Of course I understand that Russia is competing with the United States. I don't agree that a weaker US and a stronger (temporarily) Russia are good for the world. What is friendly to Russia is intrinsically anti-democratic, and the far-right is anti-democratic. They are ideologically close to Putin besides being bought out by him. The thing is, what makes the mooted interference something less than an act of war? What has the United States done comparably to Russia since the Cold War? Let's say a socialist (or Sanders-progressive) government and President is elected in America, and immediately embarks on reforms of domestic and foreign policy to address inequality, violence, health, war, trade, climate change, etc. to make the US and by diffusion the world more democratic. You do understand that China and Russia will present even more resistance than they do now, because these reforms (which could generally also have the effect of loosening American economic domination) threaten their authoritarian regimes. And there's a serious danger here, because socialist and progressive distaste for combat and the American military specifically may indicate unilateral disarmament and a dearth of hard power to maintain the integrity and intent of reform. China and Russia are forces of reaction.

Russia and China will conflict with the US and their near abroad no matter what, and a revolution of solidarity isn't automatically forthcoming; don't scapegoat Amerikkka. I agree that if we reduced our footprint in the world and our military spending, they would to some extent reciprocate the slack. But these states fundamentally need to intervene in their near abroad and project population-unifying enemies. An alliance between the US and Venezuela or Iran would be more natural and attainable than an alliance between the US and Russia or China.

Finally, you keep assuming that Russian actions could not have had any effect on the election, and it's a pretty strange asseveration. Trump won by fewer than 100,000 votes in three states.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016...gin-loss-votes

Trump’s margin of victory in those three states? Just 79,316 votes.

This latest number comes from Decision Desk’s final tally of Pennsylvania’s votes, where Trump won 2,961,875 votes to Clinton’s 2,915,440, a difference of 46,435 votes. Add that to the official results out of Wisconsin, where Clinton lost by 22,177 votes, and Michigan, which she lost by 10,704 votes, and there you have it: 0.057 percent of total voters cost Clinton the presidency.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...s-in-all-three
(n.b. There's an interesting angle with Jill Stein, but that story needs more time to develop)

I'm not saying that Russia necessarily must have been the single greatest factor in the election, but how can your consistent denials not be perturbed by these margins? Evidentially, the argument "Russia had some effect" is more credible than "Russia had no or minimal effect". This is the case independent of what one thinks of Trump, Clinton, Putin, Sanders, the alt-right, Russia, the United States...

+++
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Meanwhile...

Conservatives urge Trump to grant pardons in Russia probe

“I think he should be pardoning anybody who’s been indicted and make it clear that anybody else who gets indicted would be pardoned immediately,” said Frederick Fleitz, a former CIA analyst and senior vice president at the conservative Center for Security Policy.

“It’s kind of cruel what’s going on right now and the president should put these defendants out of their misery,” said Larry Klayman, a conservative legal activist. “I think he should pardon everybody — and pardon himself.”

“About time you pardoned General Flynn who has taken the biggest fall for all of you given the illegitimacy of this confessed crime in the wake of all this corruption,” Flynn’s brother, Joseph Flynn, wrote in a mid-December tweet. “Pardon Flynn NOW!” he added in a later message.

During a video interview last week at the Trump International Hotel in Washington D.C. with Jack Posobiec, a pro-Trump activist widely considered a member of the alt-right, Flynn’s outspoken adult son Michael Flynn Jr. encouraged viewers to promote online messages calling for his father’s exoneration and pardon.

“Just keep pushing out those hashtags, the ‘#ClearFlynnNow’ and the ‘#PardonFlynnNow,” Flynn Jr., said.

“The whole super structure of the Russia investigation is compromised,” Fitton said. “Those caught up in it deserve some protection. Rather than just let the virus run its course, it’d be appropriate for the president to consider pardons for people who are caught up in the prosecution.”

In an Oct. 29 Wall Street Journal op-ed column — published on the eve of Mueller’s first indictments against Manafort and Gates and the release of the Papadopoulos guilty plea — two conservative lawyers called on Trump to “end this madness by immediately issuing a blanket presidential pardon to anyone involved in supposed collusion with Russia or Russians during the 2016 presidential campaign… and to anyone for any offense that has been investigated by Mr. Mueller’s office.”

“The president himself would be covered by the blanket pardon we recommend,” wrote the lawyers, David B. Rivkin Jr. and Lee A. Casey, veterans of the White House counsel’s office and Justice Department in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations. They argued that Russian election interference is a matter for a Congressional investigation, not a criminal one.

“If the Democrats take over, pardon everyone,” Cernovich said. “They’re coming for you anyway. They have their nuke with impeachment. You have your nuke with pardons. And then settle in for an interesting two years.”

:|

Can we have a Balkanization Clock to replace the Doomsday Clock?

[CrossLOPER]

“If the Democrats take over”

ha. ha. ha. ha. ha. ha. ha.

They went against Trump and lost. Their heads are too far up.

[a completely inoffensive name]

ha. ha. ha. ha. ha. ha. ha.

They went against Trump and lost. Their heads are too far up.

A fresh face with charisma would crush them. Hillary was neither fresh not charismatic. Obama was, and that is why we won his reelection when lesser Democratic candidates would not against the tea party tide that swept through the US Federal government in 2010-2014.

[Gilrandir]

The US has problems, but problems like having a Honda with 150000 miles on it. Russia and China were never functional to begin with and will never be functional because they insist on having this little microcosm that only seems to work when no one realizes that there is an alternative.

Russia - yes, China - hardly.

7. To repeat, we are still under attack, and there is nothing on the public agenda to counter ongoing Russian efforts. It might be easier to acknowledge nonchalance if the government had already taken effective action against the ratf***ing.

One more allegation involving Russian cyber troops:
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/0...a-cyber-attack

[rory_20_uk]

A fresh face with charisma would crush them. Hillary was neither fresh not charismatic. Obama was, and that is why we won his reelection when lesser Democratic candidates would not against the tea party tide that swept through the US Federal government in 2010-2014.

And the phrase "Yes We Can" is not much better than "Make America Great Again" - both are basically meaningless yet uplifting in a nonspecific way. Both Obama and Trump were relative outsiders with the hope that they could somehow shake up / "fix" all the ills.

[Fragony]

Beggars want change they can believe in. But yeah it are meaningless phrases, Trump is no different in that, in the end you shouldn't trust anyone who wants the job, only narcists and sociopaths want it

[Husar]

Beggars want change they can believe in. But yeah it are meaningless phrases, Trump is no different in that, in the end you shouldn't trust anyone who wants the job, only narcists and sociopaths want it

They, and Bernie Sanders.

[Fragony]

They, and Bernie Sanders.

Must say that I honostly believe he's a really decent person, but it's always the jerk who gets the hottest girl

[Husar]

Must say that I honostly believe he's a really decent person, but it's always the jerk who gets the hottest girl

I think there was actually some research about how people often vote the psychopath into office and why that is. IIRC it's something about the belief that a strong leader is required and the fact that psychopaths often have great charisma.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...ace-jobs-study
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...paths/260517/#

I'm not sure that's a good thing, but it's not like I would know how to change it. It seems a bit simple to say charisma makes you a good leader. Trump is an effective leader, but he's effectively leading people into their own demise, so....

[Fragony]

I think there was actually some research about how people often vote the psychopath into office and why that is. IIRC it's something about the belief that a strong leader is required and the fact that psychopaths often have great charisma.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...ace-jobs-study
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...paths/260517/#

I'm not sure that's a good thing, but it's not like I would know how to change it. It seems a bit simple to say charisma makes you a good leader. Trump is an effective leader, but he's effectively leading people into their own demise, so....

Kinda funny, gf considers me to be a destructive force because of all these things in these links, reality is that I'm really kind, I hope.

[CrossLOPER]

Russia - yes, China - hardly.

China pushed for an economic boom with easy industrial access, but did so in the most short-sighted way possible. The economy is enormous, but unstable.

As for long-term problems, China has never ever been able to function properly without insulation and social pressure. It will eventually be difficult to control information as it gets more decentralized. You'll see that it is less functional the less control it holds.

[Fragony]

China pushed for an economic boom with easy industrial access, but did so in the most short-sighted way possible. The economy is enormous, but unstable.

As for long-term problems, China has never ever been able to function properly without insulation and social pressure. It will eventually be difficult to control information as it gets more decentralized. You'll see that it is less functional the less control it holds.

5 years or so. It's already brewing, China has a problem but they don't realise it yet.

[HopAlongBunny]

Who is Alex van der Zwann?
It seems he "facilitated" Manaforts' Ukrainian adventure.
Mueller has charged him with the usual: lying to the Special Counsel's Office.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1G41YM

Interesting. The people who have anything to hide likely already know what he knows.
Thumb screws are not needed when you can bring continuous pressure.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A fresh face with charisma would crush them. Hillary was neither fresh not charismatic. Obama was, and that is why we won his reelection when lesser Democratic candidates would not against the tea party tide that swept through the US Federal government in 2010-2014.

I am not entirely happy that charisma seems to trump [pardon the pun] so much of the policy/skill evaluation that would ideally be prompting each citizen's vote, but ACIN is spot on in his assessment.

[Montmorency]

I am not entirely happy that charisma seems to trump [pardon the pun] so much of the policy/skill evaluation that would ideally be prompting each citizen's vote, but ACIN is spot on in his assessment.

Leaving the term "technocracy" aside, federal elections should be more of a resume-measuring contest than a question of charisma (or of fundraising).

I'll have more to say about this ACIN, but don't fall into the Democratic trap of "electoralitis". Democrats need to pass proper legislation in office, not just take office to hold it. Also one of the things that makes me skeptical of Sanders: if there's a right way to do things, and you want to implement it in government, you should have a pioneering hard line prepared for all the world to see, not just statement of intent: "Here are comprehensive drafts for just about everything government can touch. The second we have suitable majorities, these bills will be signed into law. Immediately. Here is the substance publicly available ahead of time, for people of knowledge and good will to assess. None of that bipartisan debate crap on the floor. Immediately. "

[CrossLOPER]

I am not entirely happy that charisma seems to trump [pardon the pun] so much of the policy/skill evaluation that would ideally be prompting each citizen's vote, but ACIN is spot on in his assessment.

One requires really basic feelings, the other requires that you sit down and think. Which one is easier?

[Fragony]

Who is Alex van der Zwann?
It seems he "facilitated" Manaforts' Ukrainian adventure.
Mueller has charged him with the usual: lying to the Special Counsel's Office.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1G41YM

Interesting. The people who have anything to hide likely already know what he knows.
Thumb screws are not needed when you can bring continuous pressure.

Really rich legal gun for hire

[Montmorency]

Really rich legal gun for hire

His father-in-law is Russian oligarch German Khan. (German Khan??)



Humor-break time. Here's an image I fished out of my 2010 files:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Seamus Fermanagh]

One requires really basic feelings, the other requires that you sit down and think. Which one is easier?

You are correct, of course, but I have always tried to use my brain and not solely my "oh, that poor little puppy" reactions to things when making decisions that matter. My weakness.

[Gilrandir]

China pushed for an economic boom with easy industrial access, but did so in the most short-sighted way possible. The economy is enormous, but unstable.

As for long-term problems, China has never ever been able to function properly without insulation and social pressure. It will eventually be difficult to control information as it gets more decentralized. You'll see that it is less functional the less control it holds.

I remember Soros or someone predicting the demise of US dollar a couple of years ago. But it is alive and kicking. The same could be said about China. Whatever gloom and doom might be augured for it, at present China's economy is booming and I see no reason why it should stop with no sign that political control is under any threat.

[HopAlongBunny]

Oh my. The Mueller inquiry just gets more convoluted.
Manafort and Gates got dinged with a 32-count indictment; in addition to the charges they already face.
Charges include lying on tax returns and conspiracy to commit bank fraud:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...=.de3b80020e34

Gates threw over his lawyer and apparently backed out of the idea of a plea deal with Mueller:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/ex-tru...probe?ref=home

Made for TV movie? Nobody would believe it :p

[CrossLOPER]

I remember Soros or someone predicting the demise of US dollar a couple of years ago. But it is alive and kicking. The same could be said about China. Whatever gloom and doom might be augured for it, at present China's economy is booming and I see no reason why it should stop with no sign that political control is under any threat.

There's plenty of time.

Besides, this is the same logic climate deniers use. "HURR DURR DAR BE SNOW, LIBRULS LIE AGAIN!!!"

[Gilrandir]

There's plenty of time.

That's the best side of it. Nobody (of the living) will ever know whether you or me was right.