Trump Thread

[Strike For The South]

Does not even haven the backbone to fire Mueller. Amazing.

[HopAlongBunny]

Opinions on the results of the investigation are pretty split.
Even if obstruction seems pretty solid, would (or even could) the President be charged?:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...so-what-216539

To me, the safest answer seems the best course:

Dump the turd in the lap of Congress; this plays directly to the perception that ultimately impeachment is a political decision.
Would the report get a "public viewing"? You would think so, but I have read that Congress would have some discretion in this; in any case it seems hard to believe that this lot could actually keep anything secret.

[spmetla]

I think in the end his findings will be dumped in the lap of congress. I can't imagine that they would be released publicly though someone will eventually leak them. I'd expect that at the end Mueller would have a press release with essentially a summary of the findings and his recommended courses of actions to congress.

Mueller's taking such a long time and proceeding so apparently methodically and with minimum leaks means he's undoubtedly trying to make an air-tight case for any conclusions he comes to. Whatever his findings need to be so clear cut and provable in court that only the most partisan would contest them as a politically driven hit.

There's a possibly that the Republicans would start an impeachment trial and find the president not guilty in order to prevent his being tried by the Democrats in the event of a blow out loss during the mid-term elections. Other possibility is they just sit on it and use it as leverage against him in a "you support this bill or we might have to head the clamoring of the Democrats and have an impeachment trial"
That's assuming that this is concluded before November. If it's only concluded shortly before the elections and the Democrats grab the majority in one or both houses there's a good chance of an impeachment trial no matter what the results of the investigation. Whether Trump is removed from office or not wouldn't matter much to the Republicans because either way it would fire up their base against the deep-state, liberals, socialists, progressives, and globalists that are the ire of their world view and allow them to use it for propaganda and try to regain those seats in 2020. Pence would work alongside their agenda much more easily but he is nowhere near the lightening rod for anger and protest as Trump is which allows so many 'small cuts' to go unnoticed by the news while we focus on Trump's latest outrage.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Less than dozen members of Congress voted against Russia sanctions.

Trump signed it into law.

Trump refuses to enforce the sanctions.

Where is Greyblades to perform the mental gymnastics to conclude that this isn't dereliction of duty or that *gasp* WHAT ABOUT OBAMA/HILLARY.

[Fragony]

A president in the US can overule the congres, that's in your constitution I believe. It's probably smart to not make these sanctions, it's better to have Russia as a poor friend, Russia isn't hostile to the west.

[Fisherking]

Less than dozen members of Congress voted against Russia sanctions.

Trump signed it into law.

Trump refuses to enforce the sanctions.

Where is Greyblades to perform the mental gymnastics to conclude that this isn't dereliction of duty or that *gasp* WHAT ABOUT OBAMA/HILLARY.

With regard to enforcing sanctions, the last eight years, if not previous president, have opened the door to selective enforcement. Congress did practically nothing over it then when it clearly violated their intent and have not made a real peep this time. Under the previous administration congress blamed the lack of enforcement on the executive agencies involved. International sanctions would involve any number of them so perhaps it is too much trouble and the players are too Establishment to risk blaming in order to get to Trump.

A president in the US can overule the congres, that's in your constitution I believe. It's probably smart to not make these sanctions, it's better to have Russia as a poor friend, Russia isn't hostile to the west.

The president can not over rule congress without constitutional grounds. Under the question of sanctions, that would be difficult. Congress’s actual constitutional powers are primarily external. International trade, commerce, and relations are clearly theirs, so there is no actual constitutional ground not to enforce their will. It can only be called a policy dispute.

[Fragony]

Why hurt something that isn't interested in hurting you. Solid question I think. Trump might be remembered better later

[Gilrandir]

Russia isn't hostile to the west.

This statement can be thought accurate only by those who aren't exposed to Russian media.

[Fragony]

This statement can be thought accurate only by those who aren't exposed to Russian media.

lol it doesn't work like that, they aren't our friends. They must be laughing their asses of how we destroy ourself with just a little nudge.

[Gilrandir]

lol it doesn't work like that, they aren't our friends. They must be laughing their asses of how we destroy ourself with just a little nudge.

Laughing is one thing and expressing profound contempt and enmity is quite another.

[Fragony]

Laughing is one thing and expressing profound contempt and enmity is quite another.

Well they are clever. The west is the dealbreaker here the west shouldn't creep up on their borders and that's exactly what is being done anyway. I wonder how long it takes before the Russians feel too cornered by the Nato, at some point they will and they would be right

[rory_20_uk]

Well they are clever. The west is the dealbreaker here the west shouldn't creep up on their borders and that's exactly what is being done anyway. I wonder how long it takes before the Russians feel too cornered by the Nato, at some point they will and they would be right

Russia has been trying to increase its sphere of influence since at least the 1800s. Western Europe has been trying to contain them; in the Far East they have been jostling with China and Japan - both who would be keen to have territories returned that Russia annexed. They take what they can when they can. As do we.

Russia is as always picking for weaknesses from the Arctic circle to the Med. And in Syria they're having quite a lot of success as well as Ukraine. They're really doing well at getting the maximum results for the minimum effort.

[Fragony]

China is a bigger concern for Russia. We ourselves, we couldn't possibly do anything, we are too weak, both in budget and mind. The eurozone can be taken with a schnaps and a laugh

[rory_20_uk]

Indeed. A tooled-up China would worry me a hell of a lot more than West Europe. Europe probably would do something (such as a strongly worded letter) should they move in our direction whereas China might take measures to exert control over Eastern Russia. And all of China will be behind that. Quite an unsettling thought.

[Gilrandir]

And in Syria they're having quite a lot of success as well as Ukraine.

Depends on what you consider a success.

[rory_20_uk]

Depends on what you consider a success.

A few years ago it could be thought that Syria would end up being a western-friendly puppet backed by the West, Israel and Saudi Arabia it is now a place where Turkey is currently shelling troops that are backed by the USA - both NATO members whilst Saudi Arabia squares off against Iran. They've got their warm water ports for at least the time being at least. They got to try out all sorts of toys on borderline defenceless targets.

So they dropped a load of old ordinance on targets and have got most of the world bickering about Syria rather than talking about how to force Russia to give back the Crimea.

[Fragony]

Indeed. A tooled-up China would worry me a hell of a lot more than West Europe. Europe probably would do something (such as a strongly worded letter) should they move in our direction whereas China might take measures to exert control over Eastern Russia. And all of China will be behind that. Quite an unsettling thought.

It's going to happen, a friend of mine worked as an English teacher in China, she told me that some Russian areas are already Chinese in schoolbooks. She also been to Russia many times so I kinda take her word for it. I am also still secretly in love with her but never tell her that. The Russions know what's comming their way

[Beskar]

War between Russia and China would be interesting (but very unwanted). Especially as the Narrative puts Russia and China on loosely partnership basis.

Such a loss for Russia in losing Siberia could see them joining the European Union too.

[Fragony]

The EU is already dead they are just a bit slow-thinking in that. War over territories between Russia and China will come, how it will turn out I don't know

[rory_20_uk]

War between Russia and China would be interesting (but very unwanted). Especially as the Narrative puts Russia and China on loosely partnership basis.

Such a loss for Russia in losing Siberia could see them joining the European Union too.

Two large, autocratic, nuclear-armed powers going at it? Interesting is a word I would use if I was living on a self-sustaining colony on the Moon / Mars.

After loosing 3/4 of their area I don't envisage the rump Muscovy would then morph in to a Western facing democracy and join the EU.

[Gilrandir]

A few years ago it could be thought that Syria would end up being a western-friendly puppet backed by the West, Israel and Saudi Arabia it is now a place where Turkey is currently shelling troops that are backed by the USA - both NATO members whilst Saudi Arabia squares off against Iran. They've got their warm water ports for at least the time being at least. They got to try out all sorts of toys on borderline defenceless targets.

So they dropped a load of old ordinance on targets and have got most of the world bickering about Syria rather than talking about how to force Russia to give back the Crimea.

I meant "success with Ukraine".

[Strike For The South]

Putting my Kissinger hat on, War between China and Russia would be good for the west. Not good for the millions who would die needlessly however. War is funny about having that as a sticking point.

The picture is starting to become clearer. Trump laundered money for the Russians, had his debt wiped, and now this is the quid pro quo. The Russian propaganda is little more than a Soviet style throwback that has more to do with Putin flexing his muscles rather than whoever the candidates were.

The vote is so lopsided it is veto proof. This may actually do it. A lot of republican senators can feel themselves on the precipice. Both Cornyn and Cruz were hawking some pre natal pain bill when this news broke. It is a desperate attempt at a feint.

[Strike For The South]

I meant "success with Ukraine".

They prefer The Ukraine.

[ConjurerDragon]

Two large, autocratic, nuclear-armed powers going at it? Interesting is a word I would use if I was living on a self-sustaining colony on the Moon / Mars.

They had border disputes several times already, e.g.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-S...order_conflict
and they solved them more or less peacefully with the Soviets conceding seemingly minor patches of land

After loosing 3/4 of their area I don't envisage the rump Muscovy would then morph in to a Western facing democracy and join the EU.

The Soviets already lost a large part of their colonial empire but I don’t think that China would be out for the whole of Siberia. In my opinion chinese politics are really patient, planning not for the next election period of 4 years but for the next decades, slowly grinding away resistance. I mean, Tibet, Hongkong, Macao, the minor areas ceded by the USSR...

Currently the Chinese seem to be occupied trying to get full control of the South China Sea with the Spratley islands but once they look towards Russia my guess would be that at first they do their usual request of returning areas that once belonged to the Quing Empire and only were lost due to "unequal treaties".


And if they do my guess would be that shortly before they have some friendly negotiations with Japan to ensure them that they get the southern Kuriles back from Russia if they support China diplomatically.

[Beskar]

Two large, autocratic, nuclear-armed powers going at it? Interesting is a word I would use if I was living on a self-sustaining colony on the Moon / Mars.

Hence the "very unwanted" part! I was kind of hoping of perhaps visiting China this year too for some sightseeing...

After loosing 3/4 of their area I don't envisage the rump Muscovy would then morph in to a Western facing democracy and join the EU.

It really depends on the aftermath. If China gobbled up all that territory successfully, it would become a second cold war. Russia would either become a Chinese proxy-state, or it would join Europe Union/Nato, or it would become a border-state. The Russian proxy-state scenario would be more likely if there was deepening of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation rather than a war between the two nations.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A president in the US can overule the congres, that's in your constitution I believe. It's probably smart to not make these sanctions, it's better to have Russia as a poor friend, Russia isn't hostile to the west.

Technically he or she cannot. The President may veto any bill passed by Congress before it becomes law. Congress can override that veto with a 2/3 majority in both chambers.

Once it is law, the President is charged with seeing the laws executed.

Our founders specifically tried to establish an executive that was subordinate to Congress.

In practice, Presidents are pretty good at dragging their feet etc. to not execute a law they disagree with. This is extra constitutional, however, and not part of the basic framing.

[Montmorency]

With regard to enforcing sanctions, the last eight years, if not previous president, have opened the door to selective enforcement. Congress did practically nothing over it then when it clearly violated their intent and have not made a real peep this time. Under the previous administration congress blamed the lack of enforcement on the executive agencies involved. International sanctions would involve any number of them so perhaps it is too much trouble and the players are too Establishment to risk blaming in order to get to Trump.

What did Obama (not) do?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I assume you have Iran or Cuba in mind, but I don't recall the government declining to enforce existing sanctions.

Rejecting sanctions on the basis that their Congressional approval is itself a sufficient deterrent to the target of the sanctions is likely a novel argument.

[Fragony]

pluning americans into debts, more than all his precedetors combined? That?

[Pannonian]

pluning americans into debts, more than all his precedetors combined? That?

Hang on, weren't we talking about enforcing sanctions and ignoring Congress thereof? Constitutionality and all that? How does the above relate to the constitutional relationship between President and Congress?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

pluning americans into debts, more than all his precedetors combined? That?

Every President since 1835 has presided over an increase in the absolute total of the national debt. While the debt has gone up and down as a percentage relative to the entirety of our GDP. the raw total increases every year.

Each and every year, CONGRESS votes to increase the debt and the President then signs it into law.

That blame is as broadly spread as anything in government.