Trump Thread

[Montmorency]

Just a personal opinion. I don't think Roe will be overturned. Frankly I think any hypothetical ends in 6-3. I guess one could be worried about death by erosion but that would have been there with Kennedy anyway.

The moral of the story here is YOU SHOULD HAVE FOUGHT HARDER FOR GARLAND. ugh.

I thought the only reliable intersection of Kennedy's vote with the liberal bench was on abortion and gay rights? He functioned a little in the shape of a Blue-Dog Democrat in the Senate. A Doug Jones is worth rather little [n.b. Doug Jones fits well because IIRC he's pro-abortion rights), becomes worth a lot when set against a Roy Moore.

Casey v Planned Parenthood is the ruling we should have our eye on, being as it, while not superseding Roe exactly, did remodel and expand it considerably. So, I agree that it won't be overturned outright, too unpopular and on-the-nose. Republican SOP is death by a thousand cuts, with plausible deniability toward people who aren't paying much attention and don't realize the stakes. After many rulings under the solid 5-4 court, Roe and Casey will still be good law, but really dead letters. Substantively, any state that wants to can effectively reduce legal abortion to ~0.

Think about the fetal-heartbeat limitation in Iowa (?) recently - that's damn near a total ban on abortion, and they'll keep approaching that limit without explicitly meeting the line.


Edit: If I'm wrong and the reactionaries want to be totalitarian about it, they could move to rule somewhere that abortion in general is a human rights or Constitutional violation and so make it vulnerable to criminalization on a FEDERAL level. But that would only reinforce the case for permanently removing the GOP from any position of power.