Trump Thread

[Strike For The South]

There was a point in time where I thought the long game, 4d chess narrative had some merit to it. I no longer think this is the case. Trump was an outsider candidate who had to surround himself with outsiders in the GOP tent. He has essentially ousted the traditional GOP people and has doubled down on pandering to his nativist base (cue him hugging the flag yesterday). I don't think there is really much more to it than that.

I think these people have power and are simply willing to inflict pain. Their bumbling implementation of these policies is proof of that. I don't think Miller is particularly smart or capable. I think Miller has simply seized the levers of power. I would caution against conflating this and some type of long term plan.

Of course this does not make anything they are doing any better or not horrible. It does however underwrite the need for direct action. A congress that could get it's shit together could put a clamp on these mouth breathers in pretty short order. The executive branch doesn't have a plan or a legal basis for what they do (See all the travel ban).

The northern triangle is a disaster and this is a refugee crisis. It is a moral imperative to help these people.

Cruzs bill is only there so Beto does not outflank him on this issue. This is extremely unpopular in Texas and the kind of thing that could cause Cruz to lose his seat. Call me cynical.

[Montmorency]

There was a point in time where I thought the long game, 4d chess narrative had some merit to it. I no longer think this is the case. Trump was an outsider candidate who had to surround himself with outsiders in the GOP tent. He has essentially ousted the traditional GOP people and has doubled down on pandering to his nativist base (cue him hugging the flag yesterday). I don't think there is really much more to it than that.

I think these people have power and are simply willing to inflict pain. Their bumbling implementation of these policies is proof of that. I don't think Miller is particularly smart or capable. I think Miller has simply seized the levers of power. I would caution against conflating this and some type of long term plan.

Of course this does not make anything they are doing any better or not horrible. It does however underwrite the need for direct action. A congress that could get it's shit together could put a clamp on these mouth breathers in pretty short order. The executive branch doesn't have a plan or a legal basis for what they do (See all the travel ban).

I agree, but I should lay some distinctions.

1. Trump does not have principles, but he does have instincts.
2. Bannon, Miller, and others in and out of the admin evidently do have some sort of "plan", or better put, an agenda. Even something as simple as a series of broad steps or sequence of policy or social outcomes. To say they have an agenda is certainly not to say that they are geniuses or masterminds, or that everything has been charted beforehand.

The northern triangle is a disaster and this is a refugee crisis. It is a moral imperative to help these people.

Every economic and social reform we envision for Latin America depends on the decline of cartel violence as a prerequisite. We set three policy areas that have empowered and continue to empower cartels:

1. War on Drugs
2. Firearms proliferation
3. Restrictive immigration and border control policy.

What are the three pillars of cartel revenue and activity?

1. Drug trafficking
2. Arms trafficking
3. People trafficking

Our policies are what created the Central American refugee crisis, what plunged some of the safest and coziest countries on the planet into the most violent warzones within just one decade.

We owe reform to ourselves, to the people of the Americas, and to the World.

Cruzs bill is only there so Beto does not outflank him on this issue. This is extremely unpopular in Texas and the kind of thing that could cause Cruz to lose his seat. Call me cynical.

Cruz' proposal is so narrowly and marginally preferable to both the status quo and Trump's extension of it, he should switch parties.

The GOP has always been closer to my preferred 'government at the lowest level practicable' approach...but all too often in words only.

So shouldn't you be one of those "vote Republican local, vote Democratic national" types?

[Husar]

Just when it looked like Trump may have acted due to public pressure, it turns out to be a pretty bad bandaid:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-...n-for-20-days/

[Gilrandir]

That sounds different to me, they're not militarizing space by sending soldiers there. Trump talks about a military space branch and then about sending people to the Moon and Mars, which seems to hint at literally claiming space with the military before others do, in part to prevent them from going there and claiming things. That's quite different from just having plans to defend against a laser satellite, ICBMs or whatever.

That might sound different but for the nature of the person who is responsible for carrying out the "defense plan". Do you honestly believe Russia would limit itself to defense? Or, to make it more general, do you honestly believe Russia would do what it says?

[AE Bravo]

At least they had the decency to pull out of the UNHRC...

[Fragony]

At least they had the decency to pull out of the UNHRC...

Don't really know if you are being sarcastic or not, can go both ways. But considering the human rights of some of the UNHRC members it's a all a bit of a farce no?

OT: At the child seperation, that is too harsh yes, but human-traders are as creative as they are relentless, how can the USA know that it are really their children. Things that are defendable can be made to sound worse than they really are. Some people are absolutily ruthless, and human-trade is probably the most cynical of them all

[rory_20_uk]

Just when it looked like Trump may have acted due to public pressure, it turns out to be a pretty bad bandaid:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-...n-for-20-days/

He is applying the same methods to this as he has done with all other negotiations - create an impossible situation so the other side will compromise and do what he wants.

He wants money for his wall and all right now. He appears to think that this will force Congress to give him what he wants and everyone will blame Congress for the whole situation. That appears to be extremely wishful thinking.

[Montmorency]

Just when it looked like Trump may have acted due to public pressure, it turns out to be a pretty bad bandaid:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-...n-for-20-days/

20 days because of legal ruling from the 90s.

Obama pioneered the use of "family detention centers", a form of civil detention, to keep families detained together. In the past, and in the majority of cases under Obama, families were still released on recognizance and tracked, but Obama did pave the way for Trump's "zero-tolerance" policy.

And both Obama and Trump have tried to subvert Flores before. Trump now even seems to be petitioning for it to be weakened, to allow longer-term internment.

So in effect, we're exchanging (some of the) child concentration camps for formalized immigrant concentration camps.

[Husar]

20 days because of legal ruling from the 90s.

Obama pioneered the use of "family detention centers", a form of civil detention, to keep families detained together. In the past, and in the majority of cases under Obama, families were still released on recognizance and tracked, but Obama did pave the way for Trump's "zero-tolerance" policy.

And both Obama and Trump have tried to subvert Flores before. Trump now even seems to be petitioning for it to be weakened, to allow longer-term internment.

So in effect, we're exchanging (some of the) child concentration camps for formalized immigrant concentration camps.

I know, it's just that detaining them together is still a little less evil than detaining them separated. Sometimes you have to take what you can get. Although it says they will have to release the children after 20 days. What happens to them then?

However, at the 20-day mark, under the Flores consent decree, the department will have to release the children from custody.

Lone children roaming the desert?

[Montmorency]

NOTE: I stupidly linked the wrong Flores settlement above without checking the page. Here's the right one, Reno v. Flores (1993/1997).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reno_v._Flores

I know, it's just that detaining them together is still a little less evil than detaining them separated. Sometimes you have to take what you can get.

Just keep in mind, that's genuinely the logic of escalation. If I kidnap you and keep you chained up and starved for a week, but on the 8th day I give you a warm bowl of porridge, imagine how grateful you will be to me for having fed you.

What happens to them then?

Back to the child camps, unless and until the admin gets a superseding legislation or court decision. Then it's, well, not technically forever (unconstitutional), but in practice possibly probably indefinitely. If it's detention pending administration of criminal process like the Republican proposals, then given the case backlog, priorities, inadequate staffing, and the bad record the system has with giving low-status people speedy trials, it really is indefinite.

Be aware that Flores requires child detainees be kept in the "least restrictive" possible environment...

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/174845...nt-immigration

[Husar]

Just keep in mind, that's genuinely the logic of escalation. If I kidnap you and keep you chained up and starved for a week, but on the 8th day I give you a warm bowl of porridge, imagine how grateful you will be to me for having fed you.

More grateful than if I never receive anything until I die of starvation. That doesn't mean however, that my gratefulness meter would be in the positive...

Back to the child camps, unless and until the admin gets a superseding legislation or court decision. Then it's, well, not technically forever (unconstitutional), but in practice possibly probably indefinitely. If it's detention pending administration of criminal process like the Republican proposals, then given the case backlog, priorities, inadequate staffing, and the bad record the system has with giving low-status people speedy trials, it really is indefinite.

Be aware that Flores requires child detainees be kept in the "least restrictive" possible environment...

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/174845...nt-immigration

But aren't child camps just another form of detention? If I understand it correctly, the ruling says they can be held for up to 20 days and then they have to be released from detention. Putting them into a different detention is not a release, or is it? Does it count as some form of child care center? And in that case, wouldn't putting them there actually be required by the law since placing them in detention (with their parents) would be against the law?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I know, it's just that detaining them together is still a little less evil than detaining them separated. Sometimes you have to take what you can get. Although it says they will have to release the children after 20 days. What happens to them then?

Lone children roaming the desert?

I think they keep them longer then, if I recall the reports, unless they can be released TO someone. Not sure if this is working well.

[Fragony]

I think they keep them longer then, if I recall the reports, unless they can be released TO someone. Not sure if this is working well.

Who would that someone be, and who is watching them after them when they are released to 'someone'. As harsh as this all may sounds, there are so many possibilities for truly cynical people. I reckon that parents prefer to be with their children in the not so bad Mexico rather than be seperated from them. As atrocious as it all may sound at first glance it's defendable if you look at what is possible, I just hope it's for the right reasons