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  1. #1
    The very model of a modern Moderator Xiahou's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Swear to God anyone reasonably close to centrist the Dems prop up would nab my vote. Have not voted for a Dem for President since I started voting in Presidential elections in 1984.
    We both know the Democrats won't put up a centrist. They've been sprinting left ever since Bernie nearly took the nomination out from under Hillary. Socialism is cool now- it's what all the kids are talking about.

    Again, I think Trump is personally obnoxious. However, policy-wise he* hasn't been too bad. The biggest thing I'd criticize him* for is not doing more to reign in spending, but sadly I think we're past the point where any politician of either party is willing to seriously reign in spending- there's no incentive. We're just going to keep going full-throttle til we hit the brick wall and worry about the consequences then.

    *I refer to Trump's policies, but of course, I mean his administration's policies. I don't really think he personally has much interest in any policy specifics beyond a couple hobby horses.
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  2. #2

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    So the "FBI investigation" into Kavanaugh was a canard that didn't interview anyone or collect any information. It was all a cover. Looks like they were astute who estimated that Republicans wouldn't ride Kavanaugh to the brink just to pull back at the final moment.

    My fixed and final prediction: Kavanaugh confirmed 51-49 - all Republicans confirm except Murkowski; all Democrats reject except Manchin.

    Quote Originally Posted by Xiahou
    We both know the Democrats won't put up a centrist. They've been sprinting left ever since Bernie nearly took the nomination out from under Hillary. Socialism is cool now- it's what all the kids are talking about.
    At this point, Avenatti would be a centrist candidate. The only socialist/New Dealer with a ghost of a chance at winning the Democratic nomination in 2020 is Sanders himself.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    1What I BelieveMichael Avenatti, August 27, 2018Climate Change and the Environment. Climate change is an urgent threat. I believe America should be a leader in taking bold steps to tackle climate change, includingrejoining the Paris Agreement, investing heavily in renewable energy, reducing oil consumption, and setting more ambitious targets for cutting carbon pollution. I believe that America should be the world’s leader in clean energy.Child Care.In most states, child care is as expensive as tuition at a typical 4 yearcollege and evenrent. Childcareis so expensivethatmany families simply cannot afford it, leaving millions of women unable to participate in the workforce. Around half of Americans live in child care deserts, places with severe undersupply of licensed childcare options., which hurts working families. I believe in supporting working mothers and their families. I support expandingsubsidies and tax credits for child care for low and middle-income families.College Affordability. The cost of collegeand secondaryis soaring. No young person in America should have to forego education because it is too expensive. I believe we need to make college and secondary education more affordable for all Americans and reduce the crippling debt load (with exorbitant interest rates) that is trapping millions of young peoplefrom starting their lives and careers.Criminal Justice Reform.Our criminal justice systemurgently needs reform. Mass incarcaration has put millions of Americans behind bars for nonviolent offences,with many more waiting months and years in jail just awaiting trial. African American men are disproportionately impacted, facing higher rates of being stopped on the street and being charged with crimes. African Americans and whites uses drugs at similar rates, but African Americans are imprisoned at a level six times that of whites. I believe we should reform mandatory minimum sentencing, end racial profiling, and ease re-entry by investing in job programs. Also, no American should sit in jail for the crime of being poor; we need to end cash bail. Education. I believe that teachers shouldn’t have to work two or three jobs just to pay their bills -we must provide more financial benefits to our teachers. I believe that a kid’s zip code shouldn’t determine their futureand that every child deserves a quality educationstarting from an early age.Foreign Relations. We need to restore America’s place in the world and reassure our allies that America stands with them. I fully back NATO and our long-standing alliances, which we must now repair. We must also negotiate denuclearization agreements with North Korea and Iran. I believe we cannot choose Vladimir Putin over our own intelligence officials who put their lives on the line to keep our country safe. We should forcefully call out Russia as a serious threat to our democracy and
    2make it clear that we do not serve at the hand of Vladimir Putin. We must impose severe consequences, not lip-service, for Russia’s meddling in the 2016 elections and ensure that it never happens again. Gun Control. Parents should not be afraid to send their children to school for fear they may be shot and killed. We cannot allow mass school shootings to continue in America. I repeat –We cannot allow mass school shootings to continue in America. I support sensible gun control, including background checks and bans on assault weapons and bump stocks. I believe gun manufacturers should be held to the same civil liability standards as other product manufacturers in the United States.Immigration. I believe in a strong, efficient and human border. We need an immigration policy that secures our borders while ending the separation and destruction of families at the border, and that stays true to our history of welcoming those who seek a better life, like my great grandfather Agostino. We should provide DREAMers, who contribute so much to this country, with a path to citizenship. We should not construct a wall on the southern border -it’s a waste of money better spent on a real infrastructure plan. We should not eliminate ICE but we must change the way ICE carries out enforcement.Infrastructure.America’s crumbling infrastructure makes it harder for us to get to work, to get home to our families, to stay competitive. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives American infrastructure just a D+ grade –just above failing –dueto a dire lack of investment and delayed maintenance. I believe in a real infrastructure package to build highways, airports, bridgesand dams that make our country more competitive, while putting hard working Americans to work in good paying jobs. My detailed plan will be called the “Real Deal.”Jobs. I believe we need an economic plan that delivers good quality jobs for American workers, not billions for billionaires and wealthy corporations. Real wages have gone down under Trump, costs are rising, and many American workers haven’t seen a raise in years. It is not enough just to lower the unemployment rate. Creating qualityjobs is even more important than increasing the quantityof jobs. For too long, hard working Americans have not earned the pay, benefits or stability that they deserve. Marijuana. Current marijuana regulation and enforcement disproportionately impacts Black and Latino communities. It also costs the federal government too much money for the little it accomplishes. I believe the federal government should decriminalize marijuana at the federal leveland the Controlled Substances Act of 1970 should be amended to eliminate the inclusion of cannabis and marijuana from Schedule I. Medicare for All. The price of health insurance plans and essential drugs have been rising uncontrollably, squeezing already tight budgets and putting enormous strain on families. The average
    3price of health insurance plans for a family of four rises $100 every month, whilethe cost of the top brand name drugs more than doubled between 2008 and 2014. I believe every American deserves affordable, quality health care. I support the expansion of a Medicare plan for all Americans that covers everyone including those with pre-existing conditions. Individuals should be able to purchase additional coverage if they so choose. We cannot abandon millions of Americans who face serious, devastating consequences from nothaving health coverage.Military Spendingand Veterans. We must ensure that the men and women that place their lives at risk to keep us safe have the latest technology and weapons at their disposal to accomplish their missions. We also need a military that remains flexible and ready to act in an ever-changing world with divergent types of conflict. I believe we need to do far more to take care of our veterans after they serve our country. This starts, but not ends, with providing them with adequate health care and mental health programs. To this end, the VA Mission Act must be implemented in a way that benefits veterans –not private companies looking to get rich at the expense of veterans.Money in Politics. Money is the root of all evil in politics. We need to pass meaningful campaign finance reform that corrects the Citizens Uniteddecision. If I choose to run for office, I will not take any corporate PAC money. I believe all candidates for president in 2020 should refund allcorporate PAC money they have received since January 1, 2016 if they are sincere about campaign finance reform, otherwise it is all talk designed to deceive voters.Paid Family Leave. Our country’s policies are failing to provide basic security to American families.25% of American mothers return to work just 10 days after giving birth. I believe we should enact a paid family leave plan that covers women and men who are caring for a new child, a family member with a serious medical condition, or a personal health issues. We need to ensure that providing critical care to our loved ones doesn’t prevent Americans from paying their bills. Race, Discrimination and LGBT Rights. America deserves a president who is a uniter not a divider, who moves us forward not backwards, and wholeads an inclusive, diverse government that protects allAmericans from discrimination based on race, ethnicity, gender, religion, sexual orientation or gender identity. I believe our laws must protect against discrimination and that Americansshould always be empowered to fight to protect theirrights in court. We must guarantee that the Supreme Court’s prior decisions protecting those in the minority are never overturned.Role of the Cabinet. I believe aPresident’s cabinet should be comprised of experts in their field, not underqualified political stooges. Cabinet members should be listened to, consulted on a regular basis and relied upon to help lead the United States. Supreme Court. Never again can westand by andallow a Supreme Court seat to be stolen from the Americanpeopleas in 2016. Period. The stakes in2020 are clear: if Democrats lose, Trump will usher in a 7-2 Court that will turn back progress from the last fifty years and dramatically change life
    4in America as we presently know it. FOR DECADES.I believe theseriousness of this cannot be overstated. It is critical that the Democratic nominee for President have a full understanding of the Supreme Court and be able to win. Taxes.The Trump tax plan is a terrible deal for American workers. While thelargestcompanies savebillions of dollarsin taxes each year, the average American blue-collar worker has seen an additional $5 in their paycheck. The tax cuts will add nearly $2 trillion to the national debt for our kids to deal with, while leaving no lasting benefits. Corporations are spending theirwindfall on their shareholders, not their employees. I believe in a real deal tax plan to put more money back into the pockets of hard working Americans -not a rigged plan that just benefits the rich and powerful. Trade. For too long, America has entered into trade deals that prioritize corporations and disadvantage American workers, shutter factories, and ship jobs overseas. I believe we need to be aggressive in dealing with countries that have gamed the system -but smart about how we fight back to avoid inflicting unnecessary harm on American workers and farmers. Especially when it comes to this issue, we must think ahead and play chess, not Tic-Tac-Toe. Unions. I fully back unions. I believe that all workers should have the right to organize and bargain collectively to improve pay, benefits and safety. Women’s Health and Opportunity. I support a woman’s right to choose. Full stop. We must ensure that Roe v. Wadeis neveroverturned and restore full federal funding to Planned Parenthood. I believe that the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution should be ratified and that women and men doing the same work deserve to take home the same pay. I support the expansion of legal protections for workers against rampant sexual harassment and discrimination in the workplace.
    1


    Again, I think Trump is personally obnoxious. However, policy-wise he* hasn't been too bad.
    Well, yes. Trump is the Republican Party, and the party is Trump.

    I think we're past the point where any politician of either party is willing to seriously reign in spending- there's no incentive. We're just going to keep going full-throttle til we hit the brick wall and worry about the consequences then.
    Anyone who has been waiting on the Republican Party to cut spending any time in the past few generations has already bought all the bridges they could ever need.
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  3. #3

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Kavanaugh confirmed

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_...omination#Vote

    On October 5, the Senate voted 51-49 for cloture, advancing the nomination to a final floor vote on October 6. The vote was almost entirely along party lines, with Democrat Joe Manchin voting yes and Republican Lisa Murkowski voting no.[109][110]
    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    My fixed and final prediction: Kavanaugh confirmed 51-49 - all Republicans confirm except Murkowski; all Democrats reject except Manchin.
    YOU

    YOU

    I GOT IT RIGHT

    But it came down to Manchin, the D - West Virginia Senator, to cast the deciding vote? When one Republican Senator was absent and could not vote? Manchin ostensibly values a few more years in office above a permanent degradation of the SCOTUS such that the radicals can cement their case for its effective dissolution as an institution?

    Can we process the Blue Dogs for glue yet?
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  4. #4
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    The final tally was clearly well known by leadership in advance, or a certain Senator's daughter's wedding would have been delayed a few hours.

    You did, Monty, more or less precisely predict the final vote.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  5. #5

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    The final tally was clearly well known by leadership in advance, or a certain Senator's daughter's wedding would have been delayed a few hours.

    You did, Monty, more or less precisely predict the final vote.
    Murkowski "paired" with that Senator (voted Present), and Manchin and Collins had declared within the past day, so the outcome was known by Friday afternoon.

    Well, it was a remedial prediction in truth.

    I posted before Manchin declared for Kavanaugh, but it was at the very endgame after the FBI investigation came out and Flake and Collins made their dispositive noises. If you then have every article on the subject noting separately that Manchin is the expected swing Democrat, and that Murkowski is the most precarious Republican, it doesn't take uncommon erudition to sum 1 and 1 together.

    It does always feel great to make the right call, though.

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    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
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  6. #6
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Murkowski "paired" with that Senator (voted Present), and Manchin and Collins had declared within the past day, so the outcome was known by Friday afternoon.

    Well, it was a remedial prediction in truth....
    There is a small part of me that wishes that the vote had come down to a 50-50, and then Pence then voted "No."

    NOT because of any great qualms I have with Kavanaugh as a jurist (had the allegations clearly substantiated then he would have rightly been rejected, but I have no great grief with his rulings from the bench thus far). But because it would have split the GOP in half and wrecked its current form. I am increasingly of a mind that that must be (in some form) a needful step to moving towards a better conservative party for the USA.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  7. #7

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    There is a small part of me that wishes that the vote had come down to a 50-50, and then Pence then voted "No."

    NOT because of any great qualms I have with Kavanaugh as a jurist (had the allegations clearly substantiated then he would have rightly been rejected, but I have no great grief with his rulings from the bench thus far). But because it would have split the GOP in half and wrecked its current form. I am increasingly of a mind that that must be (in some form) a needful step to moving towards a better conservative party for the USA.
    Wild story.

    had the allegations clearly substantiated then he would have rightly been rejected,
    I have some problems with this.

    1. If anything short of Kavanaugh personally declaring "Yes, I was an '80s prep villain all my life, and I would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for you meddling liberals!" could have sunk his nomination, it would have been because Manchin or Flake would have changed their vote (i.e. it would have been 49-50). And not really Collins, with her speech she indicated her position was fixed from the beginning.
    2. As long as we're referring to legal standards, the integrity of the nominee is what must be demonstrated "beyond a reasonable doubt", not the opposite. If every single accuser and corroborating witness against him were Soros-paid liars, Kavanaugh still would not have been fit. Somehow the Republicans convinced a swathe of the country that lifetime positions of power should be held to lower scrutiny than a security guard or McDonalds shift manager.
    3. Kavanaugh's own statements and behavior, as well as the platoon of character witnesses and affiants, are all consistent with a characterization of Kavanaugh as an aggressive sex pest.


    EDIT:
    but I have no great grief with his rulings from the bench thus far
    By the way, you claim to be libertarian-leaning. Kavanaugh's record favors a very weak 4th and 5th Amendments, among other things.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 10-08-2018 at 01:02.
    Vitiate Man.

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