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  1. #1

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    And yet, his approval has been increasing recently.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/
    I find it remarkable how stable his approval ratings have been over the full term (perhaps only Obama is comparable in this regard out of the records of all Presidents as shown on 538). But his base will respond, thus slightly bumping his approval, every time he engages in his bailiwick, which is cultural-symbolic warfare and antagonism. Economics is literally meaningless in registering Trump's base support (as opposed to interest group or financial support).

    You must understand - as so many have noted, but as this twitter thread does relatively succinctly - is that Trump's only option to build support is to divide the country (read the whole thing):

    Starting from the proposal that Trump’s failure to even try to “unite” the country after the bombs doesn’t only stem from his character but his business model.

    Or to put it otherwise, it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his continued political success depends upon his not understanding it. Trump’s prospects for political survival don’t depend on uniting country, but on continuing to divide it in ways that are reinforced by the political geography of Senate, the rural-urban divide in House seats etc. Even if (implausibly) he wanted to build unity, he couldn’t stick to it without undermining his only viable political strategy (the people who hate him are going to go on hating him). This seems obvious.

    What is maybe less immediately obvious is that the Democratic party faces very similar strictures. The broad aspirational claim that the country could be ‘united’ by a president depended on a very different ecosystem, where TV etc had a highly pronounced centrist bias.

    As the historical work of @pastpunditry and the ecosystem mapping of @YBenkler et al. demonstrate, this has been radically transformed. We now have a bifurcated media ecosystem, with Fox News and its satellites radically at odds with the old consensus, which persuades viewers into a version of @normative epistemic closure (see also @drvox passsim). This means that Democratic presidents aren’t ever going to be able to unite the country either – a substantial minority will always believe they are part of a madrassa/benghazi/communist/globalist plot.

    It’s notable that the last moment of purported ‘unity’ was GWB and the Iraq war – when the traditional media flocked to Fox’s view of the world, rather than vice versa. But there is a substantial minority that will never, ever be united beneath a president that has the (D).

    So this creates a problem for the Democrats. They’re going to be asked to bring unity back to American politics, but they’re not going to be able to. When Clinton complained about the “deplorables” she was absolutely right. They may not be deplorable in the sense that they may be good to their neighbors, do not kick puppy dogs for fun etc, but they are going to be eager consumers of conspiracy theories, and they will be difficult to impossible to persuade given prevailing media structures.

    What this means is that “uniting the country” is perhaps plausible as an organizing myth for a coalition that would like to think of itself as the unifying spirit of the country, but “uniting the country” should never be mistaken as a program for practical action. Indeed, that goal is likely to be a continuing problem, insofar as the coalition is likely to get cross pressure from a mainstream media that is still drinking its own home-brewed Kool-Aid, when that coalition takes politically divisive measures that are politically necessary under current circumstances. Justifying these measures in terms of broad political programs that are hard for media to assail because of their urgency – e.g. the need to restore American democracy a la Ezra, or the threat of global warming – is one possible way of responding that is obviously good on its own merits, albeit not always going to be effective in convincing media figures who still think they are in an earlier and very different America that operates according to different rules.

    But if my barstool punditizing is right, then Trump’s immediate departure from uniting to dividing does not just represent his personal drive to spite and chaos. It also reflects the real state of a country that is so profoundly divided that Humpty Dumpty ain’t never going to be reassembled properly. While deploring the ways in which Trump uses this state of affairs, Democrats should be under no illusions it can be fixed.
    Also, here is a useful article that elaborated on the recent topics of discussion here (re: compromise, extremism, partisanship), and explains why even alignment on economic policy between Democrats and Republicans will never allow for a meaningful coalition. (The TLDR is that the parties used to be similar enough that voters felt cross-pressured between identity groups associated with either party, but now they are more cleanly divided along lines like race, sex, and class)

    Let me repeat my belief that this is our best option:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Last edited by Montmorency; 10-28-2018 at 19:26.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  2. #2

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    There's been some pretty dire shit going on in the past week or two of these bad times, including the President of the United States claiming to have the power to revoke or abrogate Constitutional rights by executive fiat

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    not even with reference to some national emergency requiring the temporary derogation of protections, but with reference to the President's opinion on what the Constitution ought to say


    so it's time for a

    HUMOR BREAK


    A young right-wing provocateur Jacob Wohl was just outed for attempting to frame the Special Counsel Mueller with discrediting sexual assault allegations. His plot was apparently as follows (in this summation where I'm missing something, it's probably a detail that makes the whole enterprise even dumber and you can delve and chuckle for yourselves):

    1. Pose as a fake woman contacting reporters claiming that Republican operatives are paying her to lodge false accusations of sexual assault against Mueller.
    2. Contact a real woman and offer her money to sign a sworn affidavit alleging that Mueller sexually assaulted her nearly 50 years ago.
    3. Use a fake firm to put out a fake report containing anonymous allegations of sexual assault by Mueller through Gateway Pundit, a far-right fake news mill that, among other things, pushed the narrative in October 2016 that pro-Trump FBI agents were going to leak damaging information about Clinton as an October Surprise (FBI Director James Comey infamously got out ahead of this by effectively leaking himself)
    4. Something something MeToo
    5. ???
    6. Glory to God-Emperor Trump!

    Apparently the front site they setup to distribute the final product (the report and accusations) was filled with stock photos of actors and models, and included/was registered to Wohl's personal email and phone number - as well as a phone number registered to his mother.

    Wohl stopped responding to NBC News after being told Surefire's official phone number redirects to his mother's voicemail.
    <insert preferred gif>

    Mueller quickly got wind of it and the FBI is investigating. Wohl will be lucky to escape a federal prison sentence for suborning perjury among other things.

    @GilrandirThis is what politically-motivated accusations look like. Their hallmark is that they are very easy to debunk.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 11-01-2018 at 01:50.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  3. #3
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    There's been some pretty dire shit going on in the past week or two of these bad times, including the President of the United States claiming to have the power to revoke or abrogate Constitutional rights by executive fiat

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    not even with reference to some national emergency requiring the temporary derogation of protections, but with reference to the President's opinion on what the Constitution ought to say


    so it's time for a

    HUMOR BREAK


    A young right-wing provocateur Jacob Wohl was just outed for attempting to frame the Special Counsel Mueller with discrediting sexual assault allegations. His plot was apparently as follows (in this summation where I'm missing something, it's probably a detail that makes the whole enterprise even dumber and you can delve and chuckle for yourselves):

    1. Pose as a fake woman contacting reporters claiming that Republican operatives are paying her to lodge false accusations of sexual assault against Mueller.
    2. Contact a real woman and offer her money to sign a sworn affidavit alleging that Mueller sexually assaulted her nearly 50 years ago.
    3. Use a fake firm to put out a fake report containing anonymous allegations of sexual assault by Mueller through Gateway Pundit, a far-right fake news mill that, among other things, pushed the narrative in October 2016 that pro-Trump FBI agents were going to leak damaging information about Clinton as an October Surprise (FBI Director James Comey infamously got out ahead of this by effectively leaking himself)
    4. Something something MeToo
    5. ???
    6. Glory to God-Emperor Trump!

    Apparently the front site they setup to distribute the final product (the report and accusations) was filled with stock photos of actors and models, and included/was registered to Wohl's personal email and phone number - as well as a phone number registered to his mother.



    <insert preferred gif>

    Mueller quickly got wind of it and the FBI is investigating. Wohl will be lucky to escape a federal prison sentence for suborning perjury among other things.

    @GilrandirThis is what politically-motivated accusations look like. Their hallmark is that they are very easy to debunk.
    This accusation abounds in "fake" words, so its not really an accusation. Just old woman's tales. Real accusations are not like that. But, anyway, be it real or false, any accusations of a politician which are that old are politically motivated.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  4. #4
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    POTUS continues to prove that he's the epitome of the average American. It's neither guns nor hamburgers, neither baseball nor cowboys. No, it's just pure and sheer ignorance of geography. Poor Melania.

  5. #5
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    Poor Melania.
    She's a call girl on retainer. She sold out for as much as she could get. That is her choice - but I've no sympathy since if she wants she's free to divorce him... I assume the terms of the pre-nup mean she stands to loose too much.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
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    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  6. #6
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    She's a call girl on retainer. She sold out for as much as she could get. That is her choice - but I've no sympathy since if she wants she's free to divorce him... I assume the terms of the pre-nup mean she stands to loose too much.

    I can refer those words to lady Di as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    She's a call girl on retainer. She sold out for as much as she could get. That is her choice - but I've no sympathy since if she wants she's free to divorce him... I assume the terms of the pre-nup mean she stands to loose too much.

    I am not quite so emotionally cynical as to assume any marriage is a form of prostitution (which is possible inductive extrapolation of your statement).

    Her choice to remain with him is, as you note, her choice.

    I do not know the tenor of their relationship with one another, or what guidelines they have worked out between and for themselves. Their union, their choice. Not my concern.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  8. #8

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    A great essay comparing the Trump worldview to the movie Goodfellas. I urge you to read it :

    The most interesting connection between Goodfellas and Trump isn’t that “Trump behaves like a mafia don.” It’s that the President thinks that being a mafia don is the best possible life. And that is desperately sad.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Praising its “stellar cast,” Mr. Trump has referred to the 1990 film as “great entertainment.” — CBS News

    Goodfellas is the Rosetta Stone for the Trump Presidency (some spoilers ahead). My brother (we’ll call him N.) and I were watching the heartwarming, blood-splattered classic over Thanksgiving. In the second half, Henry Hill is rolling in money from his Pittsburgh coke connection. Henry’s wife Karen is flaunting their regained wealth to Morrie and Belle. Karen pushes a button on a remote control. A pair of doors swing open, revealing the most garish home entertainment center this side of a Dubai strip club. It’s Scorsese taking a cold-eyed look at Seventies mob taste. My brother and I started laughing. N. said, “This is what Trump thinks is classy.” And that’s the key to our glorious President: he thinks he’s in this story.

    I’m not the first to note parallels between Scorsese’s 1990 crime epic and Trump. Back in August, the New York Times noted:

    “When I first heard that Trump said to Comey, ‘Let this go,’ it just rang such a bell with me,” said Nicholas Pileggi, an author who has chronicled the Mafia in books and films like “Goodfellas” and “Casino.” ... Mr. Pileggi traced the president’s language to the Madison Club, a Democratic Party machine in Brooklyn that helped his father, Fred Trump, win his first real estate deals in the 1930s. ... Mr. Trump honed his vocabulary over decades through his association with the lawyer Roy Cohn, who besides working for Senator Joseph McCarthy also represented Mafia bosses like Mr. Gotti, Tony Salerno and Carmine Galante.

    But these are surface comparisons, and miss the point. The most interesting connection between Goodfellas and Trump isn’t that “Trump behaves like a mafia don.” It’s that the President thinks that being a mafia don is the best possible life. And that is desperately sad.

    Henry begins the film by telling us, “As far back as I can remember, I always wanted to be a gangster. To me, being a gangster was better than being President of the United States.” Trump is what happens when you try to have it both ways.
    With the possible exception of Fight Club, Goodfellas is the most misinterpreted movie in history. Let me clarify. If you watched Goodfellas, and took away “They’ve got it made,” if you watched The Sopranos and thought “Man, Tony’s got it figured out”—or if you watched Breaking Bad and said “Wow, Walter has grown into a hero”—then, my friend, have I got tough news for you.

    Goodfellas is one long gag on the audience—You really think the mob is about glamour and loyalty? Check these guys out! Trump is the kind of man who takes a joke literally. It’s almost as if the movie was designed to appeal to him. The story of Henry Hill is essentially a narrative about half-witted narcissistic sociopaths with weird hangups … who take themselves and “respect” incredibly seriously. Paulie’s weirdness about using the phone could be a Trump peccadillo. Trump’s dearest associates are either people who believe this, or are criminal grifters. Both of these types appear in Goodfellas.

    Thirty years after its release, Goodfellas shadows over all crime fiction. Scorsese’s masterpiece has perfect atmosphere. There are details about postwar Mafia culture that only close-hand observers would know. The film seems inexpensive but never cheap. As Bill Burr once said, every scene’s a closer.


    And Goodfellas illustrates the squalor of Henry’s world. And Trump’s.

    As someone once said, Trump is a dumb man’s idea of a smart rich man. But we forget just how dumb that idea is. I mean, here’s a guy in big awkward suits, surrounded by dopey cronies, who lives in a golden penthouse, uses words like “rats,” and chooses to spend his time with thick-necked real estate brokers in Mar-a-Lago.
    Goodfellas nailed Trump’s type down to a T. Even if you believe wealth and power and strength are inherently admirable (they’re not), Goodfellas portrays the cheapest, shoddiest versions of those glories—the Trumpian versions, as it were.

    During my twentieth time watching it, I was reminded of how weird and broken the characters are, and honestly how little they settle for. Their idea of money is a couple of free hundreds. Their idea of masculinity is bullying their friends. And their idea of power is—what, not getting bothered by the cops and scoring a seat at the Copa?
    Trump: A man whose idea of power is large crowds. A man whose loyalty goes one way. A man who forgoes clever lying for easily disproven brags. A thin-skinned man who gives into performative public explosions instead of building power wisely. A profoundly dull, needy, unimaginative man, easily provoked and easily upset.
    The underworld of Henry Hill seems so shabby once you’ve read about people with real wealth and real power and real strength. Selling your soul is bad enough, but doing it for so little is doubly humiliating. In the play A Man For All Seasons, Thomas More says: “Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world… but for Wales?”

    Another point that Goodfellas is very clear about: everyone here is deluded. Just as Trump is deluded. Every claim Henry makes for The Life is disproven in the course of the film. The whole movie is one long, extended exercise in How Men Miss The Point. And Henry, from the first to the last, takes the wrong lesson. Much as Trump does. That’s the tragic thing about nihilists. They sacrifice so much just to believe in nothing. And nothing is what they get.

    We’re told again and again in the film how much loyalty matters. But loyalty doesn’t matter. Not in this film, and not to Trump. The respect economy is make believe. The point of Goodfellas is that these are literally not “good fellas.” Organized crime is a business pretending to be a family. Goodfellas is a story about false laughter, false camaraderie, false everything. These are predators pretending to be blood brothers. That’s why so much of the male friendship in the movie has this bizarre, edgy dream logic to it. These are paranoid, insecure, desperate losers clawing at each other to stay afloat. Human feeling is alien to them, as it is to Trump.

    Goodfellas feeds into the The Sopranos, and The Sopranos feeds into Trump. As one Reddit user put it, Tony Soprano’s descent into dark misanthropy—his alienation of everyone in his life—is the path of the MAGA suburban dad. Tony is unable to stop being selfish, or to tell himself the truth. He couldn’t face his own choices, any more than Henry or Karen could. That’s Trump’s base, and it’s Trump himself.

    Sure, Horatio Alger was the lie that square America told itself. But the edgy alternative, Goodfellas, is also a shabby untruth. The lie that, with the right friends, or the right crew, or the right deal, you can jump in line ahead of all those suckers. People who take Goodfellas at face value are distantly related to people who take Fox News seriously. There’s nobody easier to con than people who think they can’t be conned. When you get a free second, ask an Alex Jones listener about nutritional supplements.

    The Trump White House (like Goodfellas) is full of people who spent their lives conning other people, only to fall for the biggest con of all, as Paul Manafort’s week has detailed. They all played themselves into following a deluded schmuck, and believing his childish lies. Like Henry Hill, Trump wants to avoid living his life like an average nobody. But the point of the movie is that only a schnook would seriously believe in The Life. There’s no fool like a man desperate to be nobody’s fool, and guess what? He’s the President. Donald, you sure are a funny guy.


    EDIT: I especially appreciate the article because I only ever saw the middle third or half of Goodfellas on TV some years ago.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 11-29-2018 at 00:41.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



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