Trump Thread

[Furunculus]

An unhelpful framework IMO. Rather:

entertainingly, i have followed adam aelkus for what must be nearly a decade now.

on the comment itself - i'm not sure i agree that it is unhelpful. yes, he tears down elements of process he doesn't like, but what i think i provided just how much 'deep' state process there is to wade through. i don't think its as rootin' tootin' as steve bannon tweeting trump with the message; "we can bag a big one if you're game for it?"

[Montmorency]

entertainingly, i have followed adam aelkus for what must be nearly a decade now.

on the comment itself - i'm not sure i agree that it is unhelpful. yes, he tears down elements of process he doesn't like, but what i think i provided just how much 'deep' state process there is to wade through. i don't think its as rootin' tootin' as steve bannon tweeting trump with the message; "we can bag a big one if you're game for it?"

Nice.

The bottom line is that the White House (Trump, and his administration) is not a coherent or rational actor, so a standard analysis in terms of institutional Courses of Action and risk calculi is neither descriptive nor predictive of observed behaviors (going back to the beginning).

For all we can speculate Trump did this because he wanted to, in his mind, look tough compared to Jimmy Carter. That is, with no consideration of how this would affect any larger strategy toward Iran because there is no Iran strategy, just a series of "hyperreal" media events.

[Greyblades]

He's not the head of the Iranian military, but the head of a branch (Quds force) of a branch (Revolutionary Guards) of the army that was specialised in foreign operations.

Technically correct, the man was however the most influential 2 star general in the revolutionary guard; the equivalent of the SS or comissariat, politically second only to the ayatolla. I also get the impression the Quds are also the only part of the Iranian millitary with recent combat experience, much of it supporting groups that are currently making american forces lives difficult.

Combined with personally taunting the god emperor (Gee, could it be I'm joking?) the man must have known he had a target on his forhead, making it foolish he was personally running about near a bagdad airport.

Cheeto in chief bombed the envoy that participated in an effort to deescalate a middle eastern conflict. Totally not a rogue state the US, just a Muslim terrorist terminated.

He wasnt some well intentioned diplomat, he was the coordinator of shia insurgents and millitias in the middle east, many of which are outright terrorists.

[Furunculus]

Nice.

The bottom line is that the White House (Trump, and his administration) is not a coherent or rational actor, so a standard analysis in terms of institutional Courses of Action and risk calculi is neither descriptive nor predictive of observed behaviors (going back to the beginning).

For all we can speculate Trump did this because he wanted to, in his mind, look tough compared to Jimmy Carter. That is, with no consideration of how this would affect any larger strategy toward Iran because there is no Iran strategy, just a series of "hyperreal" media events.

For reference: i do not disagree with anything said by adam - or condone the hit - merely point to the process that evolves the potential of a legitimate target before it is presented as an option to the CINC.