Trump Thread

[Montmorency]

An interesting story in light of Trump's unilateral executive claims to be able to issue new taxes on private businesses to the exclusion of Congress, or even to arbitrarily demand partial state ownership of large corporations such as Intel, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, etc... (we can also recall the rumors from 2018 that Trump was considering the nationalization of the American coal and steel industries). The story is that Kennedy is refloating the vaporware idea of the federal government removing choice from SNAP recipients and instead mailing them a government meal plan. This was discussed back in 2018 as well as a welfare-cutting measure, although with Kennedy's participation it is peculiarly rebranded as "MAHA boxes", a "wholesome" alternative to the typical diets of the poor.

Yes, this is a real Backroom throwback, if any of you still around remember.

While pointing out that the whole notion of the state replacing grocery and convenience stores on a national scale, out of a paternalistic disdain for the poor, was insultingly stupid on its face, I did reflect positively on the idea of the government making 'quality' meal plans available as an option to the general public.

My point is just that a distinct and well-funded program of curated packages isn't an inherently bad idea as long as it isn't presented as a replacement for anything. If really ambitious, assemble and distribute to all comers (i.e. without special enrolment) on a local basis.

It took me hours of further consideration to realize that the application of such a policy would be hideously inefficient, and ultimately politically destructive, relative to whatever benefits it could provide, and that the people currently able to pursue "healthy" diets would derive no benefit from a government meal plan, while those who might theoretically benefit from subsidized healthy food would not take it up, unless the government really broke the bank pushing (nudging) it on them. So I couldn't help but laugh when I saw the discourse being revived by Brainworm Kennedy after 7.5 years. Nothing is ever truly dead under postmodern conservatism; it contains all multitudes.


To quote an Internet commenter, "I always knew that conservatives lied about their values a lot, but they lied about even the most fundamental parts, and that I did not understand until Trump."

Well, we're months into this Presidency and it's certainly the civic disaster we all knew it would be. The only accomplishment was getting NATO to get 5% future defense spending and possibly the Iranian nuclear strikes (though hard to tell when the intel assessments are being changed to fit the party line).

I just hope that the 'norms' can somehow hold out enough to get a decisive win against the MAGA party next year but that's a long time and the republic is straining daily under the assaults of Trump and Co.

Trump pushing NATO into rearmament is far more to do with the Ukraine War and Trump's sheer existence as an avatar of an unreliable America than with any diplomatic effort; if it turns out he is a secret mastermind who pursued an anime heel turn for the purpose of uniting everyone against him - that old trope - then maybe we could give him some credit. It's also not 5% however, as 1.5% of the mutual understanding is allotted to general fiscal commitments that could be covered by most categories of existing government spending. As before, I don't believe even for a second that the US will ever even spend 2% of its GDP on military presence in Europe, in peacetime.

To the extent there was something accomplished in weakening Iran, and that the game was worth the candle in the long run, it was 99% Israeli direct action (though not 99% Israeli arms).

In terms of raw accomplishment, if Trump does succeed in breaking the military and the independent prerogatives of the individual states, and in fully severing the authority to issue new laws and appropriations from Congress, just by demanding that it be so through appeal to unlimited "Article 2" authority, or to his own body in the monarchical tradition, he will by definition be the most successful president in the history of the United States of America (which will, conveniently, also have concluded as a project at that time). We will see just how viscerally rotten the country really is, in comparing wherever Trump ends up with how easily or arduously foreign dictators were able to establish tyranny over their lesser countries. It would certainly be ironic if tyranny turned out to be easiest of all in the US.

But no one in the future would be able to say that the country wasn't actively debased and prepared for servitude over many years before Trump by malign elements.

The Bulwark has a post on this theme:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

It’s been just two weeks since the president of the United States ordered a military occupation of the nation’s capital. I understand that it feels longer. But I want to highlight for you two things: (1) The pace at which we are moving, and (2) how Trump employs a mix of the ridiculous and the dangerous.

o August 11: Trump announces he is deploying National Guard troops to take over Washington, D.C.

o August 13: Trump declares that he has personally chosen the recipients of the Kennedy Center Honors for 2025.

o August 15: Trump greets Vladimir Putin in Alaska with a red carpet rolled out by kneeling American soldiers and literal applause.

o August 22: Trump announces that the U.S. government has taken a 10 percent ownership stake in Intel.

o August 24: Trump demands that the Baseball Hall of Fame admit Roger Clemens.

o August 25: Trump announces that he has removed Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

o August 26: Trump instructs Cracker Barrel to abandon its new company logo.

This is why you’re exhausted.

A few observations:

(1) Ridiculous but serious. Trump is in many ways a buffoon. So are many dictators.

o Vladimir Putin “discovering” ancient Greek urns while diving.

o Gaddafi maintaining an “Amazonian guard.”

o Jean-Bédel Bokassa declaring himself “emperor” of central Africa.

People who dismiss the danger of Trump and Trumpism because of his buffoonishness are either fools or accomplices.

(2) Omnipresence. Nothing happens in public life without Trump putting his stamp on it. Cooperstown? Cracker Barrel? The Kennedy Center Honors? Trump has a will to dominate them.

He is the living embodiment of the leviathan, the totalized state.

(3) All he does is win. That’s not literally true—Trump does take the occasional loss. But his overall batting average is remarkably high. He is more politically dominant today than he was at this point in 2017, even though he is a physically and mentally faltering (supposedly) lame duck.

How is this possible? Several reasons.

o He has learned to operate outside the world of legislation and purely through executive power.

o His second administration is staffed with button-men who are willing to do whatever he demands, regardless of legality.

o The private sector has accepted subservience.

o The Republican Congress has also completely submitted.

o To a large degree, so has the general public: Trump is significantly more popular today than he was on August 27, 2017.

On that last point, if you want to be truly depressed, look at these two graphs:

[graphs showing Trump’s approval rating trend is better now than it was at this point in 2017]

Those two charts tell the story of a populace coming to terms with authoritarianism.

In the early days of 2017, America experienced the shock of buyer’s remorse. People could not believe what their country had done. But as Trump’s term unfolded he became more popular, despite everything.

There were bumps—a million Americans died because of his handling of the pandemic; he attempted a coup. But each time his approval rebounded.

The clear lesson is that a consistent share of about 44 percent of Americans want this.

And [44 percent + dictatorial control of the government] should be enough to retain power for quite some time.

I realize the last two weeks have seemed interminable. But you haven’t seen anything yet. We’ve got three and a half years left under the best-case scenario.

In the worst case our present condition will persist indefinitely.

I keep saying this, but: Trump is not behaving like a man who intends to ever vacate the White House.

2. 44 Percent

One final thought:

Our impulse is to blame the victim. We come up with rationales for why we are in this spot.

It’s because of woke. Or because Democrats have done a bad job. Or because of inflation. Or because of media bubbles. Or Fox News. Or Facebook. Or because of Joe Biden. Or Hillary Clinton. Or trans people. Or because voters are low-information mouthbreathers.

The reason we reach for these causal theories is because we are desperate to find some button to push, some lever to pull, that will change our situation.

And because no one wants to grapple with the most obvious explanation: That we are here not by accident, or misunderstanding, but because 44 percent of America wants to be here.

Forty-four percent of America consistently returns to Trump and Trumpism. Isn’t it possible—isn’t it likely?—that they have done so again and again over the better part of a decade because they want to be right were we are? With an authoritarian strongman?

I realize this isn’t new ground for us and I’m not even sure what I want you to discuss today in the comments. Except maybe for this:

If it is the case that something like 44 percent—or even 40 percent; or 36 percent—of the country approves of where we are now, then is there any realistic prospect of returning to liberalism?

And if so, how would that work?