Trump Thread

[Gilrandir]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44527672

Donald Vader or Darth Trump?

[Husar]

Just because it's still funny:

[Montmorency]

I know this is extreme language, but we are living in Berlin in 1933 right now. I strongly recommend "In the Garden of the Beasts" by Erik Larson.

I know I sound like an alarmist... but put this critical piece into context... If you were at the big kids table in the White House, even if you knew Trump himself had no ties to Russia (highly unlikely), it is irrefutable that the Russians did interfere directly and repeatedly in the 2016 elections and continue to do so. Why wouldn't you take some steps to preserve your electoral integrity (actually, the White House has actively blocked efforts at the state level for the past 15 months)? Especially when your candidate brayed for 6 straight weeks "that the fix was in"? Why? Because you know full well that there will be no mid-term election... that you will use the Russian influence to suspend elections "until such time as their integrity can be assured". Isn't that how all strongmen do it?

In order to get your people to stomach that, you need your motivated minority to have a wedge issue. You need an other to after. It's not Jews. It's "those filthy Latinos, all of whom are in drug gangs, even the children". And here we find ourselves. We're not playing politics anymore, and we haven't been for some time.

Welcome back Don.

Dude over here, whose blog is pretty consistent that I linked above, develops the case that we are now one government action or policy away from full authoritarianism. He argues that (bolded as original, size change to my salience):

So. Let us now think one step ahead. Let’s imagine, simply, that the head of state in this country, or its Congress, decides to do something much worse even than put kids in camps. By passing a bill, or an executive order, or both. We don’t even need to ask the obvious question — why would they stop at camps for kids?

Go ahead, pick something. Pick anything. Let the dark corners of your imagination run wild for a moment. Intern citizens. Strip people en masse of citizenship. Put residents and citizens in camps. Gulags. Enslave the prisoners in them. Put people in ghettoes, based on their ethnic status. Exterminate them.

Does this sound like fabulism to you? Please think again. Who is going to stop it? The Congress will not lift a finger — that much it has already clearly signaled, hasn’t it? The head of state appears to have no moral limits whatsoever — all this is very clearly within not just his legal capabilities, but more importantly, within the bounds of his moral imagination. It is something he is capable of as a human being. The media, at least a solid half of it, would probably cheer such things, and deny they are happening — just as it does right now for camps.

So. I want you to see the point. And I hope that it makes your blood run cold — because it does mine.

The worst abuses and acts imaginable in human history can happen overnight now. They have been licensed institutionally — there is not a single check or balance, not one, left to stop them. They can become a reality now with a single simple signing of a pen to paper. Do you see what I mean by: we are one step away from the abyss?

Do you still think that I overstate it? The world cannot stop it, can it? The UN can’t. The World Bank can’t. No international institution, no foreign power, no body of any kind whatsoever in the entirety of the world, in fact, can stop any of the preceding, should this country’s government decide that is what it wants to do. And who would intercede anyways? China? Russia? LOL — this is the stuff of their dreams, to see their great adversary self-destructing.

Now. Maybe you object. “But there will be legal challenges! The courts will stop them!!” You are right — but only in the way that proves you wrong. Sure, there’ll be legal challenges. Many and furious. But so what? They will not really stop any of the above. They may claim some sort of victory, after a time, but it will be a Pyrrhic victory. Those facing the thugs will still be hurt, traumatized, abused, for life — if they have lives left. The courts cannot prevent atrocity — they can only do justice for it after it is too late. History, Nuremberg, tells us that much.

So in the end there are only two safety nets left in society that can stop the plunge into the abyss. The first is the people. The American people are brave and noble and kind. But they are also traumatized and wounded and broken, by the depredations of predatory capitalism. If it means losing their livelihoods, being blacklisted, being jailed themselves, never working again — will they march? Will they surround the camps? Perhaps you see the problem. Maybe some will — but enough? This safety net is an unsure one to have to rely on.

The second safety net left in society that can prevent a plunge into the abyss is the military. Now we find ourselves in the realm of truly broken societies. Will the generals say to their armies: “enough is enough. We will not permit this”? I don’t know. You don’t know. No one can really say. So this safety net may be there, but it may not be, too. There is an even chance, I’d say.

And that leaves us right where I began. We are one step away from the abyss. Just one. A tiny nudge. A single action. That is all it would take. A law passed by Congress. An executive order. Any kind of atrocity is well within the realm of very real political and social possibility now.

Just one. It could happen overnight. It could happen in the blink of an eye. It could happen tomorrow, the day after that, or even today. No, this wasn’t possible a decade ago — when a more sensible Congress and President and party reigned. But together, they mean that we are one step away from the abyss. From real darkness and horror. From becoming all that we once condemned as despised as ignoble, false, unworthy, and immoral.

The author uses much of his blog to argue that the sentiment "It couldn't happen here" represents a moral and intellectual failure on the part of the one holding it. "It is already happening here."


Addendum: There is one, ultimate safety net we can think of, of course: the civil disobedience of the federal agents tasked with carrying out whatever atrocity. Unfortunately, I don't have that kind of confidence in our enforcers...

[Husar]

On that note the Space Force is an incredibly stupid steps because once he begins to weaponize space, so will others. And if it doesn't end up with a big field of space debris that will prevent all space flight for a long time, who knows what kind of terrible WMDs countries will place up there that could obliterate humanity in addition to the nukes we already have...
Space used to be the one somewhat neural zone where countries even cooperate on space stations, now he's turning it into another arms race...

And this: http://www.dw.com/en/us-withdraws-fr...cil/a-44301296

The Trump administration has yet again pulled the United States out of a major global organization — this time the UN Human Rights Council. The move comes a day after the UNHCR criticized Trump's immigration policies.

Obviously Human Rights do not concern Trump, as if it wasn't obvious enough by the way he talks about dictators who constantly violate them..."funny" in that context, that Haley claimed the council wouldn't really care about Human Rights.

[Montmorency]

BTW, for those who don't know Stephen Miller is the grandson of Jewish immigrants, and the most outspoken 'card-carrying' fascist in the entire Trump admin.

Stephen Miller’s Family Is Furious Over Family Separation Policy

He probably likes to think of himself as a cross of Himmler and Goebbels.

When his parents were telling him about the Holocaust as a kid, he must have been the type of person to think to himself, 'I want to be a Nazi when I grow up.'


Meanwhile, ICE and ORR (Office of Refugee Resettlement) have no system for keeping track of the relationship between adults and the children taken from them (since before the present policy they would be released on own recognizance), so adults are getting deported while their kids are still in the camps and there is neither capacity nor interest to reunite them.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-...-tearing-apart

Boy, camps full of unidentified, irrepatriable minors: sounds like a problem in search of a solution. Some type of 'long-term', enduring solution. Just sayin'.


Also meanwhile, the Trump admin is hiring dozens of lawyers to review immigration cases to find instances where it may be appropriate to strip naturalized citizens of citizenship. They are embarking on this obviously extremely urgent project now because there are potentially "a few thousand" cases in need of review. In post-war America, this process has typically been reserved for people who lied about being Nazis or war criminals on their paperwork.

But don't worry: the admin promises not to act on the basis of technicalities. What a relief!

[a completely inoffensive name]

Who will stop him?

This is the beginning of something scary.
Unless American society rejects its agreement to the current government power structure, then this may be something that continues to snowball.

[Husar]

Unless American society rejects its agreement to the current government power structure, then this may be something that continues to snowball.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/...ald-trump.aspx

[a completely inoffensive name]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/...ald-trump.aspx

Hence my pessimistic statements a week or two ago...

A man is above the law when there is no one able (or willing) to hold him accountable.

[Montmorency]

Perhaps a third ultimately approve, or half of Republicans.

"Law and order"

Obama orders that all potential thought-criminals preemptively surrender their firearms to federal agents under penalty of immediate incarceration.
Freedom-loving patriots: "Welp, it's the law." ???????

If I believed in evil, that's what I would call it.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Perhaps a third ultimately approve, or half of Republicans.

"Law and order"

Obama orders that all potential thought-criminals preemptively surrender their firearms to federal agents under penalty of immediate incarceration.
Freedom-loving patriots: "Welp, it's the law." ???????

If I believed in evil, that's what I would call it.

That will increase as talk radio and Fox News continue to feed the base with the piss-poor explanation of "It's the law, Obama did it and if he didn't he should have according to the law."

[Montmorency]

We should talk about Obama, though. And Clinton.

It's to my shame, you know, how a few years ago I almost proudly related on this forum to the skeptical that 'Obama is like, the harshest deporter EVAR! So there!'

Tough on crime. Tough on immigration. These are the dividends of Democrats playing to independents and Republicans. Intensify the bad things in government but along the lines of something less bad than the opposition wants - and isn't that really all Democratic policy has been, "technically superior" to Republican alternatives? - and how can you not end up helping license the worst?

We need a clean break with the past.

[Gilrandir]

On that note the Space Force is an incredibly stupid steps because once he begins to weaponize space, so will others.

So have others.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Space_Forces


The Russian Space Forces (Russian: Космические войска России, tr. Kosmicheskie Voyska Rossii) are a branch of the Russian Aerospace Forces, that provides aerospace warning, air sovereignty, and protection for Russia. Having been reestablished following the 1 August 2015 merger between the Russian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Defence Forces after a 2011 dissolving of the branch.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Don C (and I was happy to see you back here. I hope the women in your life are flourishing as well):

I don't see enough parallels between present day USA and the Weimar to think what you fear is likely. I take your point about Miller though. It is wise to remember that a President is not a unitary figure and that others act in his/her name and even attempt to pull strings to get their way through the POTUS. I will have to think on that a bit.

I wish I could say that the current President has the moral fiber to decry any steps in a dictatorial direction. I simply don't see much moral fiber in him at all. I don't think the USA addled enough to allow it, but sadly I don't think he would mind it.


I voted for the wife in 2016. May have to vote for a Dem in 2020 to leverage Florida harder. I wish they'd run a true fiscal conservative democrat who didn't believe government was the answer to everything. It'd make my lever pull easier.

[Husar]

So have others.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Space_Forces


The Russian Space Forces (Russian: Космические войска России, tr. Kosmicheskie Voyska Rossii) are a branch of the Russian Aerospace Forces, that provides aerospace warning, air sovereignty, and protection for Russia. Having been reestablished following the 1 August 2015 merger between the Russian Air Force and the Russian Aerospace Defence Forces after a 2011 dissolving of the branch.

That sounds different to me, they're not militarizing space by sending soldiers there. Trump talks about a military space branch and then about sending people to the Moon and Mars, which seems to hint at literally claiming space with the military before others do, in part to prevent them from going there and claiming things. That's quite different from just having plans to defend against a laser satellite, ICBMs or whatever.

[Montmorency]

I don't think the USA addled enough to allow it, but sadly I don't think he would mind it.

Even if you don't consider all this the minimum bar for ethnic cleansing, don't you think there's some precarity in our moment? My recent argument with ACIN was one of legality, history, and philosophy, but right now we're all referring to our concrete reality.

Here's the bottom line no matter what scenario we can offer you, and I don't see how you can disagree in abstract:
1. Trump is not bound, in morals or character or even dim causal inference, by normal human restraints as to what he can unleash on the country or world.
2. There is no reliable institutional restraint that can prevent or remediate any decision of the administration if it applies the ultimate overrude of pure action.

And adding to (1), after this year's purges of inner circle the admin beyond Trump is fully stocked only with committed and vicious fascists. The articles, especially Ben Wittes', around New Year's on how American institutions have proved resilient against and restraining of the government's agenda have been made a mockery of by Year 2018. ('Gravity? That precipice sure seems like a safe spot for that boulder!')

May have to vote for a Dem in 2020 to leverage Florida harder. I wish they'd run a true fiscal conservative democrat who didn't believe government was the answer to everything.

Again I don't understand, Seamus. Every Democratic president or presidential candidate since before you were old enough to vote has been a deficit hawk. Whereas the mainstream - the dominant - Republican dogma in the same period has been, with perhaps only the exception of George H.w. Bush (often closer to pre-Goldwater Republicans than to Reagan (i.e. Milton-Friedmanized) Republicans), tax cuts + deficit spending = starve the beast.

Do you deny any of this?

[Husar]

And adding to (1), after this year's purges of inner circle the admin beyond Trump is fully stocked only with committed and vicious fascists. The articles, especially Ben Wittes', around New Year's on how American institutions have proved resilient against and restraining of the government's agenda have been made a mockery of by Year 2018. ('Gravity? That precipice sure seems like a safe spot for that boulder!')

Just adding to this:

[Strike For The South]

There was a point in time where I thought the long game, 4d chess narrative had some merit to it. I no longer think this is the case. Trump was an outsider candidate who had to surround himself with outsiders in the GOP tent. He has essentially ousted the traditional GOP people and has doubled down on pandering to his nativist base (cue him hugging the flag yesterday). I don't think there is really much more to it than that.

I think these people have power and are simply willing to inflict pain. Their bumbling implementation of these policies is proof of that. I don't think Miller is particularly smart or capable. I think Miller has simply seized the levers of power. I would caution against conflating this and some type of long term plan.

Of course this does not make anything they are doing any better or not horrible. It does however underwrite the need for direct action. A congress that could get it's shit together could put a clamp on these mouth breathers in pretty short order. The executive branch doesn't have a plan or a legal basis for what they do (See all the travel ban).

The northern triangle is a disaster and this is a refugee crisis. It is a moral imperative to help these people.

Cruzs bill is only there so Beto does not outflank him on this issue. This is extremely unpopular in Texas and the kind of thing that could cause Cruz to lose his seat. Call me cynical.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Again I don't understand, Seamus. Every Democratic president or presidential candidate since before you were old enough to vote has been a deficit hawk. Whereas the mainstream - the dominant - Republican dogma in the same period has been, with perhaps only the exception of George H.w. Bush (often closer to pre-Goldwater Republicans than to Reagan (i.e. Milton-Friedmanized) Republicans), tax cuts + deficit spending = starve the beast.

Do you deny any of this?

I think virtually every Presidential candidate from either of the majors and most of the parties throughout my lifetime have all CLAIMED to be a deficit hawk. Mainstream GOP conservatives have always hawked the line you note about "starving the beast." It works partially, but in the face of endless deficit growth without any end state, it doesn't tame that beast very well. They peddle the line that growth will conquer all...and then fail to curb the spending thus rendering the added growth moot vis-à-vis the deficit. The Dems vary between crusaders who want to push us into a full on social democracy that makes everyone equal (Sanders end) and the practical politicians (Bill Clinton) who are more interested in the power itself than in the accomplishment.

The last one who seemed like he might actually try to change the budget process and really change the game was Perot in 1992. Sadly, he was something of a fruit-bat on other issues.


The GOP has always been closer to my preferred 'government at the lowest level practicable' approach...but all too often in words only.

[Montmorency]

There was a point in time where I thought the long game, 4d chess narrative had some merit to it. I no longer think this is the case. Trump was an outsider candidate who had to surround himself with outsiders in the GOP tent. He has essentially ousted the traditional GOP people and has doubled down on pandering to his nativist base (cue him hugging the flag yesterday). I don't think there is really much more to it than that.

I think these people have power and are simply willing to inflict pain. Their bumbling implementation of these policies is proof of that. I don't think Miller is particularly smart or capable. I think Miller has simply seized the levers of power. I would caution against conflating this and some type of long term plan.

Of course this does not make anything they are doing any better or not horrible. It does however underwrite the need for direct action. A congress that could get it's shit together could put a clamp on these mouth breathers in pretty short order. The executive branch doesn't have a plan or a legal basis for what they do (See all the travel ban).

I agree, but I should lay some distinctions.

1. Trump does not have principles, but he does have instincts.
2. Bannon, Miller, and others in and out of the admin evidently do have some sort of "plan", or better put, an agenda. Even something as simple as a series of broad steps or sequence of policy or social outcomes. To say they have an agenda is certainly not to say that they are geniuses or masterminds, or that everything has been charted beforehand.

The northern triangle is a disaster and this is a refugee crisis. It is a moral imperative to help these people.

Every economic and social reform we envision for Latin America depends on the decline of cartel violence as a prerequisite. We set three policy areas that have empowered and continue to empower cartels:

1. War on Drugs
2. Firearms proliferation
3. Restrictive immigration and border control policy.

What are the three pillars of cartel revenue and activity?

1. Drug trafficking
2. Arms trafficking
3. People trafficking

Our policies are what created the Central American refugee crisis, what plunged some of the safest and coziest countries on the planet into the most violent warzones within just one decade.

We owe reform to ourselves, to the people of the Americas, and to the World.

Cruzs bill is only there so Beto does not outflank him on this issue. This is extremely unpopular in Texas and the kind of thing that could cause Cruz to lose his seat. Call me cynical.

Cruz' proposal is so narrowly and marginally preferable to both the status quo and Trump's extension of it, he should switch parties.

The GOP has always been closer to my preferred 'government at the lowest level practicable' approach...but all too often in words only.

So shouldn't you be one of those "vote Republican local, vote Democratic national" types?

[Husar]

Just when it looked like Trump may have acted due to public pressure, it turns out to be a pretty bad bandaid:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-...n-for-20-days/

[Gilrandir]

That sounds different to me, they're not militarizing space by sending soldiers there. Trump talks about a military space branch and then about sending people to the Moon and Mars, which seems to hint at literally claiming space with the military before others do, in part to prevent them from going there and claiming things. That's quite different from just having plans to defend against a laser satellite, ICBMs or whatever.

That might sound different but for the nature of the person who is responsible for carrying out the "defense plan". Do you honestly believe Russia would limit itself to defense? Or, to make it more general, do you honestly believe Russia would do what it says?

[AE Bravo]

At least they had the decency to pull out of the UNHRC...

[rory_20_uk]

Just when it looked like Trump may have acted due to public pressure, it turns out to be a pretty bad bandaid:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-...n-for-20-days/

He is applying the same methods to this as he has done with all other negotiations - create an impossible situation so the other side will compromise and do what he wants.

He wants money for his wall and all right now. He appears to think that this will force Congress to give him what he wants and everyone will blame Congress for the whole situation. That appears to be extremely wishful thinking.

[Montmorency]

Just when it looked like Trump may have acted due to public pressure, it turns out to be a pretty bad bandaid:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-...n-for-20-days/

20 days because of legal ruling from the 90s.

Obama pioneered the use of "family detention centers", a form of civil detention, to keep families detained together. In the past, and in the majority of cases under Obama, families were still released on recognizance and tracked, but Obama did pave the way for Trump's "zero-tolerance" policy.

And both Obama and Trump have tried to subvert Flores before. Trump now even seems to be petitioning for it to be weakened, to allow longer-term internment.

So in effect, we're exchanging (some of the) child concentration camps for formalized immigrant concentration camps.

[Husar]

20 days because of legal ruling from the 90s.

Obama pioneered the use of "family detention centers", a form of civil detention, to keep families detained together. In the past, and in the majority of cases under Obama, families were still released on recognizance and tracked, but Obama did pave the way for Trump's "zero-tolerance" policy.

And both Obama and Trump have tried to subvert Flores before. Trump now even seems to be petitioning for it to be weakened, to allow longer-term internment.

So in effect, we're exchanging (some of the) child concentration camps for formalized immigrant concentration camps.

I know, it's just that detaining them together is still a little less evil than detaining them separated. Sometimes you have to take what you can get. Although it says they will have to release the children after 20 days. What happens to them then?

However, at the 20-day mark, under the Flores consent decree, the department will have to release the children from custody.

Lone children roaming the desert?

[Montmorency]

NOTE: I stupidly linked the wrong Flores settlement above without checking the page. Here's the right one, Reno v. Flores (1993/1997).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reno_v._Flores

I know, it's just that detaining them together is still a little less evil than detaining them separated. Sometimes you have to take what you can get.

Just keep in mind, that's genuinely the logic of escalation. If I kidnap you and keep you chained up and starved for a week, but on the 8th day I give you a warm bowl of porridge, imagine how grateful you will be to me for having fed you.

What happens to them then?

Back to the child camps, unless and until the admin gets a superseding legislation or court decision. Then it's, well, not technically forever (unconstitutional), but in practice possibly probably indefinitely. If it's detention pending administration of criminal process like the Republican proposals, then given the case backlog, priorities, inadequate staffing, and the bad record the system has with giving low-status people speedy trials, it really is indefinite.

Be aware that Flores requires child detainees be kept in the "least restrictive" possible environment...

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/174845...nt-immigration

[Fragony]

At least they had the decency to pull out of the UNHRC...

Don't really know if you are being sarcastic or not, can go both ways. But considering the human rights of some of the UNHRC members it's a all a bit of a farce no?

OT: At the child seperation, that is too harsh yes, but human-traders are as creative as they are relentless, how can the USA know that it are really their children. Things that are defendable can be made to sound worse than they really are. Some people are absolutily ruthless, and human-trade is probably the most cynical of them all

[Husar]

Just keep in mind, that's genuinely the logic of escalation. If I kidnap you and keep you chained up and starved for a week, but on the 8th day I give you a warm bowl of porridge, imagine how grateful you will be to me for having fed you.

More grateful than if I never receive anything until I die of starvation. That doesn't mean however, that my gratefulness meter would be in the positive...

Back to the child camps, unless and until the admin gets a superseding legislation or court decision. Then it's, well, not technically forever (unconstitutional), but in practice possibly probably indefinitely. If it's detention pending administration of criminal process like the Republican proposals, then given the case backlog, priorities, inadequate staffing, and the bad record the system has with giving low-status people speedy trials, it really is indefinite.

Be aware that Flores requires child detainees be kept in the "least restrictive" possible environment...

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/174845...nt-immigration

But aren't child camps just another form of detention? If I understand it correctly, the ruling says they can be held for up to 20 days and then they have to be released from detention. Putting them into a different detention is not a release, or is it? Does it count as some form of child care center? And in that case, wouldn't putting them there actually be required by the law since placing them in detention (with their parents) would be against the law?

[Husar]

Apparently the treatment is also quite bad in these "centers", and has been for a while, even under Obama as I understand:

https://www.democracynow.org/2018/6/..._children_have

Shocking reports have revealed that immigrant children were subdued and incapacitated with powerful psychiatric drugs at a detention center in South Texas. Legal filings show that children held at Shiloh Treatment Center in southern Houston have been “forcibly injected with medications that make them dizzy, listless, obese and even incapacitated,” according to reports by Reveal. Meanwhile, according to another Reveal investigation, taxpayers have paid more than $1.5 billion over the past four years to companies operating immigration youth facilities despite facing accusations of rampant sexual and physical abuse.

So the claims of "we're detaining them, but we treat them so well!" could also be false.

[Fragony]

Has been known for years, happens here as well tranquilisers and all that

USA has an ugly dillema, they could be aiding human traffickers if they don't seperate the children from those they have no idea are actually their parents, they could just as well be trafickers and organ harvisters