Swords and Sorcery Mafia Without the Swords [Concluded]

[Lewwyn]

Morning.

Visor this is a pretty ridiculous analysis. I think leaving the off-wagon people to the side is just mind-boggling, but could be acceptable if you were just do analytics, but then to suggest that those offwagons should not be considered for lynch today or that they are inherently more villagery is just so... bad.

Additionally be cause you seem to be singling my vote on DP out, I wonder did you even bother to look at all the posts and interactions leading up to my DP vote or were you just trying to cherry pick and misconstrue the vote itself to smear me? I can't say I'm surprised given Sooh's comment during the night:

Like I said, two at most. Might be that some weren't here for EOD who bussed earlier in the day when it looked safe, and some felt they couldn't jump off because it would seem strange.

That feels directed at Choxorn and myself given that we were the ones who voted for DP early. Feels like a discrediting setup. And lo here comes Visor clumsily along.

[Renata]

The start of d2 when he picked out a wagon arbitrarily and said thats where he's looking for scum. Visor arbitrarily cutting off consideration of off-wagon players. Both substituting this mechanical quasi analysis for a normal organic approach to the game, who's scummy and who's not.

[Lewwyn]

I'll also throw my hat into the "what did you do last night?" ring.

Redirected all spells cast at Choxorn to Sooh.

[Zack]

I'm a little puzzled why any villager would want their n1 action to be redirecting something, honestly.

[Zack]

I guess could redirect a kill onto a wolf or something, but meh. I'd always go for something investigative or a vig.

[Lewwyn]

I'm a little puzzled why any villager would want their n1 action to be redirecting something, honestly.

I can't kill Sooh. I don't have a doctor spell. I think Choxorn might be targetted. I threw an attempt at redirecting a night kill towards someone I was suspicious of.

[Lewwyn]

I guess could redirect a kill onto a wolf or something, but meh. I'd always go for something investigative or a vig.

Would have liked to try a vig :D

[Zack]

I still don't get why atheotes, csargo, or offwagon people are more clear than GH, Monty, Arakhor, Lewwyn.

Do what you have to in order to protect your teammates, I guess.

[GeneralHankerchief]

GH, if you're town here, listen to me: it sounds like Beck in copless.

Thought about it, reread Visor's recent flurry, thought about it some more.

Somewhat disagree on your comparison and I'm really hoping you weren't just using it to get my attention (because you 100% knew it would).

Like, Beck's big thing in Copless was volume, especially at Lylo he was harping on about how posting that much in f5 wasn't in his scumrange, and that's obviously not Visor in this situation. He just flung a bunch of crap at the wall, saw what stuck, and manipulated things to fit his agenda. I'm not seeing much of that from Visor, he at least has been displaying a pretty clear philosophy here.

However, I am seeing flawed logic in Visor's arguments, plus stuff I just flat-out disagree with. The below post is the most questionable:

The list isn't exactly ordered.

What was so villagery about Arakhor's vote?

Let me order the list for you.

Visor
Choxorn - pure explained a number of times
Atheotes - explained before
Renata - see above/interactions/voted both wolves, etc.
Zack - claimed a peek on Winston
Winston - claimed to be peeked
Csargo - offwagon plus liked night posts
Sooh - offwagon
Snerk - offwagon

What's left (mostly unsorted)
Monty - shrug
Arakhor - shrug? In two minds on his vote on Al Sips, 1, gives little credit if bussing, 2 decent way to bus without looking like bussing. lol.
GH - hardcore tunneling of atheotes
Lewwyn - possible overexplanation of DP vote

The Offwagon thing is an assumption on my part. If you think either sooh or snerk (the weakest offwagoners imo) have been explicitly wolfy then show it to me.

Firstly, atheotes. Visor's ascribed a lot of credit to atheotes for being on the Monty wagon with (flipped scum) Al, saying it's a good look for him for reasons. First of all, as I already mentioned to Snerk, atheotes's vote for Monty the previous phase was laid very early on in the day and he never got around to changing it. If the mafia are trying to manufacture a CFD in the heat of the moment, I'm not 100% certain they're that picky over the target - especially considering two of them were under fire. Furthermore, this reasoning alone seems shallow to ascribe a top three townread to.

The offwagon thing I can take or leave, it's whatever at this point.

Secondly, me. I think Visor's explanation of my "hardcore tunneling of atheotes" is a gross misrepresentation of my D1 activities. I was certainly on the guy, because he was one of my top scumreads, and tried to push a wagon on him, but I was flexible enough, posting my thoughts on everybody else throughout the day, and ended up voting for (at least) two separate mafiosi by the end. Furthermore, Visor knows that when I smell blood, I don't let go - he was in the MU wildcard game with me last year when I latched onto Royal Ape early on D1, stayed on him the entire day, and helped get him lynched (and he flipped mafia) - and Visor even praised me for it more than once over the course of the game.

So I'm not sure that I buy that Visor actually believes what he's selling here.

[Montmorency]

He just flung a bunch of crap at the wall, saw what stuck, and manipulated things to fit his agenda.

What's the difference between this Beck and Pizza?

[GeneralHankerchief]

What's the difference between this Beck and Pizza?

Fewer walls from Beck.

[Choxorn]

It's not clearing and I'd always expect Al to be bussed over Dp with the way he was playing.

Agreed, especially considering Dp voted Al and Al didn't vote Dp. They very clearly preferred Al's lynch to Dp's lynch.

The way they both tried to jump on Monty at the end, DP in particular.

I didn't care about either of those things as far as clearing him and thought his behavior was fairly cringeworthy if a villager.

Like I said last night, I also thought it was weird that Al not only didn't self-pres, he completely avoided even mentioning Dp when Al and Dp were the leading wagons, which is just really bizarre behavior that seems really not townie. I didn't actually notice it at first, but on re-read, it really jumped out to me.

Well Al flipping corrupted changes a lot. I feel less certain of my previous assertions...

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

Such insight. Very solving. Truly, we need more posts of this level of quality if we are ever to catch the remaining corrupted.

[Choxorn]

I'll also throw my hat into the "what did you do last night?" ring.

Redirected all spells cast at Choxorn to Sooh.

Interesting. Did anyone target either me or Sooh last night?

[Csargo]

I don't know what to say really...

[Montmorency]

Tinfoil on Visor's weirdness:

Visor is Mafia. Having suffered a catastrophic D1, his faction has decided that Visor will fall on the sword of the Godfather GH/Zack and clear him through the flip.

To buy more time, the plan should only come to fruition on D3 or 4. Manufactured "role action" will be invoked to explain the Godfather's survival as clear town to LYLO, at which point he will activate his Lynchproof and sail through to victory.

[Lewwyn]

Tinfoil on Visor's weirdness:

Visor is Mafia. Having suffered a catastrophic D1, his faction has decided that Visor will fall on the sword of the Godfather GH/Zack and clear him through the flip.

To buy more time, the plan should only come to fruition on D3 or 4. Manufactured "role action" will be invoked to explain the Godfather's survival as clear town to LYLO, at which point he will activate his Lynchproof and sail through to victory.

Doesn't sound that tinfoil-y to me.

[Choxorn]

It's a little tinfoily, though I don't disagree that Visor looks scummy as hell right now and I could see Godfather GH/Zack pulling something crazy like that if they were the last scum. It just seems more likely that the 4th scum is in the off-wagon pile he refused to even consider, someone like Atheotes or Sooh.

[Visor]

Clearly my opinions aren't shared by the majority.

Lewwyn

[Arakhor]

With 20 mins to go in Day 1, Zack (followed) by Al started a rush on Montmorency, which Dp immediately switched to, making Monty an almost-viable lynch candidate. Mere minutes later, Zack switched to Dp, followed by GH. Then we had Al's weird attempt to suggest I was biased against him, followed by Renata's late vote on Dp and GH's down-to-the-wire vote on Al. If scum-Zack was attempting to save Dp, switching back to him after an insufficient end-vote rush is not the right way to go about it.

As I noted with Renata much earlier, it seems odd to state that someone is scummy for doing much the same thing that you are doing currently. In this case, it's Visor proclaiming GH to be scummy for tunnelling Atheotes, whilst also considering Atheotes to be villagery for "earlier reasons".

Besides which, isn't it a bit odd to accuse someone of tunnelling in Day Two? As I understand it, tunnelling is when a player becomes convinced by their own arguments by virtue of how long or how strong they hold them (according to Mafiascum.net). I wouldn't have thought that anyone would be set in their views over the random progress of D1.

[atheotes]

My reads as of EOD d1.

Winston - i always find the "would i do it as scum?" defense very scummy. so Winston is on the scum pile. did not like his throw shade on Chox and disappear trick. i dont like #482 and other posts focusing on Zack/Al sips voting Monty within a minute of each other.
Zack - looks like town. props for calling out Winston on the shade.
Lewwyn - town. Mindmeld.
Choxorn - town. Dp vote seems natural
Arakhor - town lean for now. sort of have a vague memory of him playing this way as town and me thinking he was scummy.
GH - started leaning town. But his call to CFD on Arakhor and more votes on me are tilting the scale. Then he calls the Dp wagon pure with his vote on it. all this combined with his late vote to tie it up seem like he was trying to save his scum bro.
Renata - town. a little stunted start but still cant help herself when she is town. :-p
Visor - Dont think he commented on the Dp/Zack discussion. Need to recheck. if he has not commented then he is a scum lean.
BSmith - liked his post. town lean for now.
Al sips - one post and out is pretty normal for Al. Dp self pressing onto him is good for Al. Need more though.

[atheotes]

i took time to type up those reads. So you guys get to see it even if it is not up to date or even relevant.

[Arakhor]

BSmith - liked his post. town lean for now.

Given that BSmith is a deceased townie, that's incisive intuition there.

[atheotes]

I was talking about 497.

Discussing about wagons and such now just makes such a hassle, because you have to go back and find the actual posts and time stamps in order to get the order of votes on a person. But I guess we just have to live with it.

I doubt there were many scums bussing D1. I'd say one, maybe two at most. (on DP I mean)

Interesting that you felt the need to clarify that you meant Dp.
Vote: Sooh

[atheotes]

Nice job on DP.



Having not read anything prior to the flip, I'm just guessing, but he's probably a wolf who didn't want to vote another wolf. That might be wanting more than guessing though.

this post also pings me. may be because of the qualifiers included.

[atheotes]

Given that BSmith is a deceased townie, that's incisive intuition there.

This was done during the night phase. so i will take it as a compliment.

[atheotes]

The one hole I can poke in the "Dp/Al Sipsclar both scum" theory is that Dp's exact role name is "corrupted mage", which appears to be your regular garden-variety mafioso as per the OP. If there are power levels amongst the scum team or something along those lines, it's unlikely that Dp would have pushed Al Sips as hard as he did if Al was more useful to the scum team ability-wise.

Of course, if this isn't the case, or if they were both regular corrupted mages, then the above paragraph obviously no longer applies.

more deflection from GH? devil's advocate or trying to steer attention away from scum bros? hmm...

[Snerk]

I am caught up until EOD. Will post my reads during the day.

i took time to type up those reads. So you guys get to see it even if it is not up to date or even relevant.

OK but if your reads were already typed out, why delay them to the day? Why so confident you were going to survive the night?

This was done during the night phase. so i will take it as a compliment.

That is a good call indeed, specially considering that BSmith was acting kinda scummy.

I stand by my leans from earlier. With Winston getting a boost and Visor taking a dip.

Sooh or Atheotes. Alternatively Visor or Renata.

vote: Sooh

I want to know why my scan of Sooh failed.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Is anyone townreading Visor right now?

[Arakhor]

He's certainly acting oddly.

[atheotes]

That's interesting. I've never seen two scum die in just two phases before. Maybe there is some sort of vigilante spell going around or maybe someone linked Al unawares to the health of BSmith and the scum inadvertently killed one of their own.

though we cannot be sure at this point, the method of both the night kills seem to indicate that they were vigs.
Renata might have done the smart thing and used some kind of self protection or a redirector onto someone who was protected.