French Revolution Mafia [Concluded]

[Renata]

I didn't really want to get into this with an "analyze ATPG" session, but you put it out there when you could have just played silly buggers like me. Without getting too spammy, can you please justify your top three and bottom four reads?

[Zack]

Without getting too spammy, can you please justify your top three and bottom four reads?

Talk about me, who cares about those other people.

[Manasi]

Talk about me, who cares about those other people.

r e t w e e t

[Manasi]

I mean about me... Not Zack.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Obviously.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Renata]

Talk about me, who cares about those other people.

You're just jealous you don't rate as high as me and Manasi.

[Zack]

You're just jealous you don't rate as high as me and Manasi.

I'm actually curious why I'm not null. There's no reason why I should be anything else.

[Renata]

I'm actually curious why I'm not null. There's no reason why I should be anything else.

There's no reason why 90% of the thread should be anything else.

[Montmorency]

Zack, he did effectively place you as null. You're about as close to the middle of that list as you can get.

[Zack]

There's no reason why 90% of the thread should be anything else.

I also thought that after I posted what I did.

Zack, he did effectively place you as null. You're about as close to the middle of that list as you can get.

I'm green. Green is not null.

[Renata]

Atheotes is green and hasn't been here yet.



Took me a while to notice that.

I'm still going to take brazen advantage of being ATPG's and hence everybody's top town read, because I deserve good things like getting away with murder.

unvote: Jabbz
vote: Lewwyn

[atheotes]

Atheotes is green and hasn't been here yet.



Took me a while to notice that.

I'm still going to take brazen advantage of being ATPG's and hence everybody's top town read, because I deserve good things like getting away with murder.

unvote: Jabbz
vote: Lewwyn

for a second there i went, "What does she mean? i am pretty sure i am on invisible mode. Did i change it? left the tab open on the laptop yesterday...but still.. what is she playing at? casting shade? ........ she is talking about Pizza's list!!!"

[atheotes]

Interesting post from Pizza.

There's no reason why 90% of the thread should be anything else.

can you elaborate on the 10%?

[Renata]

Interesting post from Pizza.



can you elaborate on the 10%?

Manasi and I are obviously town; I rounded down.

[Monstrdude]

so far I liked pizza's post about giving people reads based on their reactions so he's my only villager

the rest of you are giant question marks

[Askthepizzaguy]

Oh and nobody ever thinks I'm acting like I do as town when I act the way I do as town, no one ever thinks I believe my own gut.

I could only remind people (ineffectively as always) that I frequently go out on a way limb as early as possible in the game to get reads out.

Gonna cite my strong opposition to the wagons on the MTGS crossover game on day one that no one believed were authentic but were, and my strong opposition to the current suspects in the hydra game, both games I was lynched day one.

I know these patterns go against your instincts but my instincts are all backwards from yours.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't really want to get into this with an "analyze ATPG" session, but you put it out there when you could have just played silly buggers like me. Without getting too spammy, can you please justify your top three and bottom four reads?

I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.

It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.

I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.

[Zack]

I could, but I don't think it would be very persuasive to people. I can say it in general terms, to aid people in understanding that there was thought put into it.

It's largely experience and instinct, based on paper thin first impressions, understanding of what I'd do if scum in this setup, what most players would do, and my analysis of the people inside my own faction who I don't want to name. I think I have a 70/15/5/5/5/0 read on my group based on their reactions to my opening posts there. The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment, if they were random, and they're not. The mafia's votes aren't random and even though most of ours are semi-random, there will also be biases regarding not necessarily piling votes on one's own faction members this early. Scum would likely be voting outside their own faction here, on a townie. I'd even put the odds of them voting for each other as higher than voting inside their own faction on a townie. That goes against the strategy of manipulating one's seeming faction-mates, it also draws attention and is therefore probably counterproductive.

I haven't caught anyone, I just haven't found some people to be showing revolutionary colors yet. I'm working from a town-down perspective and including some gut suspicions into the bottom 4.

Doing that kind of wagon "analysis" presupposing the votes are on townies by sheer probability is faulty logic.

Also for as much as people like to talk about building a town core on day 1, I've found it much easier to find a wolf than to build a village list that isn't just rand.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You do you, Zack.

[Zack]

You do you, Zack.

By probability any single person is likely a villager, so it follows that you should never vote anyone.

[Montmorency]

I'm green. Green is not null.

I think I speak for Pizza when I say, sure it is.

Pizza, I notice a certain bias in the lower half of the list,regarding player styles, activity levels, and forum histories. And then there's Barto. What's up with that?

I think Atheotes is green because he's in Pizza's faction.

[Zack]

I think I speak for Pizza when I say, sure it is.

Pizza, I notice a certain bias in the lower half of the list,regarding player styles, activities, and forum histories. And then there's Barto. What's up with that?

I think Atheotes is green because he's in Pizza's faction.

How about you speak for Montmorency?

[atheotes]

I think I speak for Pizza when I say, sure it is.

Pizza, I notice a certain bias in the lower half of the list,regarding player styles, activity levels, and forum histories. And then there's Barto. What's up with that?

I think Atheotes is green because he's in Pizza's faction.

Anytime pizza likes me, it is a high chance he is scum and setting me up for an easy mislynch at a crucial juncture .
Vote: Pizza

[Askthepizzaguy]

By probability any single person is likely a villager, so it follows that you should never vote anyone.

You'd almost have a point if I operated on probabilities alone but I don't, and the nature of the game forces us to attempt to lynch the scums as they win by default if we don't try.

[Zack]

(wanted to edit to say) building the town core comes later, not on d1 imo

[Renata]

(wanted to edit to say) building the town core comes later, not on d1 imo

Depends on the game, to be honest. Sometimes the villagers make themselves obvious. Sometimes the wolves do.

[Zack]

If you want to be nitpicky and focus on the "alone" part, whatever. My point is that it shouldn't be something you consider at all because it's meaningless.

[Zack]

You'd almost have a point if I operated on probabilities alone but I don't

...

The odds also just favor the votes being almost entirely on townies at the moment

[Askthepizzaguy]

Key word is alone. We're back to not reading my posts but commenting on them again, a thing that resulted in us butting heads every single time it's happened.

[Zack]

Key word is alone. We're back to not reading my posts but commenting on them again, a thing that resulted in us butting heads every single time it's happened.

called it

I'VE FALLEN INTO YOUR CAREFULLY LAID PEDANTIC TRAP

[Askthepizzaguy]

Or you just can't find anything better to do than go "oy, Pizza has reads, that's impossibru" even though every time I'm town I create reads even on people who aren't bleeding here yet.