EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Franconicus]

Before BREXIT will come there will - without any doubt - be long expensive negotiations. We, taxpayers from the European Union (and until the end of the negs that includes our friends on the islands) will have to pay for it. So best we can do is lay back and enjoy the spectacle.

What do you guess, how will the negotiations be running? What will be the results?

[Sarmatian]

EU holds the stronger hand. The only way UK comes out with a better deal than it has is if EU is on its way to total dissolution, in which case it will matter only for a very short time.

[Sarmatian]

The real practical threat is that, after an agreement has been made with the EU delegates, when it comes to ratifying the agreement, Spain will say No. And despite PFH's criticisms of the EU lacking democratic accountability, the EU as a body is subject to numerous vetoes, one for each member state. As Canada has found out, if one member says No, the EU as a body says No. And the default persists until an agreement is reached. In the face of this, the UK can't exactly threaten war, and it has far too little leverage for economic war.

I wouldn't compare the two situations, although legally you're right. Spain could veto any deal if it doesn't include Gibraltar. But, unlike Canada and Belgium example, this has nothing to do with EU. It's an issue between Spain and UK and should be dealt with bilaterally.

I don't think other EU members would be too pleased if Spain tried to abuse EU for its own goals.

[Greyblades]

I am not very familiar with the people living at Gibraltar. However, what I heard is that most of them voted against the BREXIT and are afraid of it. I assume all they want is to live at Gibraltar and have good relations to the UK and Spain. Caused by the BREXIT, there will be a frontier to Spain. I doubt that the Gibraltarians really want to be defended in a war UK against Spain. Neither do they want to move to the UK (or they would have done already). Gibraltar is one of the losers of the BREXIT.

Gibraltar was given the opportunity to become spanish a decade ago and 99% said they wanted to be british. Unlike the tantrum class of university students and guardian collumn writers I do not for a second believe the gibraltans would forsake their country over brexit.

[Beskar]

UK copies EU law into its own which it is doing. Assurances on EU citizens in UK and vice versa. Visa free travel between the two. A free trade deal of some kind or temporary extension of single market till one is finalised. A lot of hot air and blustering.

[Greyblades]

I disagree with Samaritan.

Britain has the greater hand; the market of britain is highly valuable to north european manufacturers and london is currently the only city in europe with the infrastructure to support the financial sector it currently holds. Businesses want the economic status quo to be maintained because to do otherwise would require long, painful,damaging and costly adjustment.

Combine that pressure on the EU from their own businesses with the mandate of brexit putting the political gun to May's head, the only side that has both the impetus and the means to give significant ground in this contest is the EU.

[Franconicus]

I disagree with Greyblades.

The market of GB is interesting, but the EU has a bigger market.
And yes, business wants things to keep on running without any hurdles. So all regulations should be adjusted between the nations, there should be common standards, common currency, free mobility etc. Ooops, I forgot, the Brits do not want to have that any longer. So there will be an agreement without all of that.

Thinking that London is so unique that Europe depends on it can be a dangerous thought. Several EU cities are currently working to get the heritage of London. The finance market is not Britain's pledge to get access to the free market, it is the prey for those who remain in the EU.

May is in a very uncomfortable situation. There is the gun at her head created by the BREXIT mandate. But there is also the issue of Ireland (cannot imagine how they will find a solution there), Scotland, Gibraltar, the finance market etc. Impossible for me to see how she could find a solution for all these problems.

And of course there are the expectations and needs of the Brits. From what I have read, it seems to me that they are a bit emotionally. On one hand they think that nothings really changes, the same advantages for the economy just without foreigners and without EU administration and without payment to Brussels. On the other hand, they fear that EU wants to punish them.
Both views are unrealistic. Britain leaves the Union because it wants to make the best policy for its own people. The EU has the same mandate for the Europeans. So I expect that they are trying to get the best conditions for Europe just as the British are trying to get the best result for the UK. In the end I guess the bigger party will get the bigger piece of cake; that's how it always is. Small countries cannot compete with big ones.

By the way, do you remember that the Switzerland had a mandate to limit the free mobility of EU citizens in Switzerland?

[Fragony]

It's the comfortable bliss of eurocrats that is under attack. Eurocrats canlt look beyond their precious protectorate but they are in fact isolating themselve. It's going to be a nice sunny day when more people realise that the EU is a useless ultra-undemocratic bureaucratic hindrance and nothing more.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Financial infrastructure matters, but it is more a question of electronics and computer security than of vaults and transportation hubs. London is the lead by legacy and the comfort of familiarity -- but I don't doubt the ability of Luzerne, Berlin or The Hague to step up.


UK needs to negotiate an exit deal that -- as closely as possible -- allows them to mimic EEC-style membership without the rest of the political oversight on other planes. Be interesting to see if they can do so.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

That will be suicidal. NATO would have the obligation to nuke UK.
And France being part of NATO and a Nuclear Weapons owner would be obliged to use them against UK, so at the end having 2 neighbours transformed in ashes, radioactives ones..

Even if Spain had invaded and attempted to annex Gibraltar, prior to any military action by the UK?

[Pannonian]

It's the comfortable bliss of eurocrats that is under attack. Eurocrats canlt look beyond their precious protectorate but they are in fact isolating themselve. It's going to be a nice sunny day when more people realise that the EU is a useless ultra-undemocratic bureaucratic hindrance and nothing more.

Most of the uselessness and bureaucratic hindrance is due to the democratic checks. That you lump all these things together shows just how devoid of logic you are on this subject. Still, Gibraltar would be a small price to pay for freedom, in your opinion.

[Franconicus]

Most of the uselessness and bureaucratic hindrance is due to the democratic checks. That you lump all these things together shows just how devoid of logic you are on this subject. Still, Gibraltar would be a small price to pay for freedom, in your opinion.

I agree with your opinion about bureaucracy, but Gibraltar?
I think the rock is a national issue for both, Britain and Spain; therefore, no side will draw back. The people living a Gib, if memory serves in 2002 more than 90 per cent wanted to remain British instead of becoming Spaniards. At the Brexit poll 90 per cent voted for staying in Europe.
I do not see any simple solution for this. The EU deescalated the problem, as the people could be British and European at the same time. Now these days are coming to an end. There will be a hard border between Gib. and Spain.
There is no easy solution. Giving Gib. to Spain is most likely not what the people want. Remaining at a Britain outside of Europe either.

Similar but even worse is what I assume for Ireland. How can there be the border between the EU and Ireland, which is for the Brits so important to control, without dividing the two Irelands and causing more trouble.
Does anybody have a good proposal?

Maybe Baskar is right and the British choose the Swiss solution.

[Franconicus]

Gibraltar was given the opportunity to become spanish a decade ago and 99% said they wanted to be british. Unlike the tantrum class of university students and guardian collumn writers I do not for a second believe the gibraltans would forsake their country over brexit.

That was in 2002, right?
In 2016, over 90 % wanted to stay in the EU.

[Tristuskhan]

As a citizen of one of those countries that are still inside EU, and having no opinion about Brexit I'd say:

Assurances on EU citizens in UK and vice versa.

F*** you, you're out!

Visa free travel between the two.

P**s off, you're out. If Brits gain that I hope France, Greece and Italy will give refugees their citizenship so that they can, as EU citizens, fulfill their dream of UK, with no visa.

A free trade deal of some kind or temporary extension of single market till one is finalised.

You are O-U-T! Be proud and don't beg.

A lot of hot air and blustering.

I did my part....

[Kagemusha]

I think this whole Gibraltar issue is just the first negotiation move from EU side. They wanted to see British reaction to a provocation and they got an emotional response, which i think they were hoping for.

Based on this, the reaction to EU's support for possibly independent Scotland staying in EU after breaking off from Britain, should be devastating. It is just a shame that European politics are turning like this once again. I would rather that the democratic West would just get along.

[Pannonian]

I agree with your opinion about bureaucracy, but Gibraltar?
I think the rock is a national issue for both, Britain and Spain; therefore, no side will draw back. The people living a Gib, if memory serves in 2002 more than 90 per cent wanted to remain British instead of becoming Spaniards. At the Brexit poll 90 per cent voted for staying in Europe.
I do not see any simple solution for this. The EU deescalated the problem, as the people could be British and European at the same time. Now these days are coming to an end. There will be a hard border between Gib. and Spain.
There is no easy solution. Giving Gib. to Spain is most likely not what the people want. Remaining at a Britain outside of Europe either.

Similar but even worse is what I assume for Ireland. How can there be the border between the EU and Ireland, which is for the Brits so important to control, without dividing the two Irelands and causing more trouble.
Does anybody have a good proposal?

Maybe Baskar is right and the British choose the Swiss solution.

Thus said our most vocal supporter of Brexit.

Giving up Gibraltar is a small price to pay, nothing is going to really change except cutting of a human traffic route, 'refugees' are Spain's problem if it's Spanish territory, pure win if you look at it pragmatically

It's all a game and giving up Gilbraltar would be a queen-sacrifice

It's perfect, you gave up a disputed territory, you would have done enough to feed the wolves, stfu very please what more do you want???? Forces in the EU want to punish you brits you know that, they don't want other net-payers to stop paying their comfortable bliss

[Greyblades]

Interesting idea, I would say that if true it is going to backfire; the biggest wet blanket on the idea of scottish retaining the EU is the veto of spain, if anything showing how easily and even frivelously spain is willing to use that veto will more likely discourage the idea that spain can be bargained with.

That was in 2002, right?
In 2016, over 90 % wanted to stay in the EU.

Doesnt translate. Posessing a desire for EU membership does not require a desire for seperatism let alone repatriation.

[Kagemusha]

Interesting idea, I would say that if true it is going to backfire; the biggest wet blanket on the idea of scottish retaining the EU is the veto of spain, if anything showing how easily and even frivelously spain is willing to use that veto will more likely discourage the idea that spain can be bargained with.

Doesnt translate. Posessing a desire for EU membership does not require a desire for seperatism let alone repatriation.

Apparently Spain has already commented, that while they do not want to see the disintegration of GB, they would not veto independent Scotland's application to EU.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662531.html

[Pannonian]

Apparently Spain has already commented, that while they do not want to see the disintegration of GB, they would not veto independent Scotland's application to EU.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662531.html

Aka an independent Gibraltar may apply for EU membership. The EU can screw the UK over in any number of ways within international norms.

[Sarmatian]

Apparently Spain has already commented, that while they do not want to see the disintegration of GB, they would not veto independent Scotland's application to EU.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662531.html

Spain only has issues with Scotland getting EU membership automatically, worrying that it might encourage some of its own separatist movements.

Spain never said it would block Scotland from EU, only that Scotland would have to apply for membership upon independence, like all other non EU countries.

[Greyblades]

I disagree with Greyblades.

The market of GB is interesting, but the EU has a bigger market.

And? The point is that the loss of custom from losing access to a market of rich buyers they have become accustomed to profiting off is something businesses absolutely do not want. Playing who has the bigger market doesnt change that.

And yes, business wants things to keep on running without any hurdles. So all regulations should be adjusted between the nations, there should be common standards, common currency, free mobility etc. Ooops, I forgot, the Brits do not want to have that any longer. So there will be an agreement without all of that.

...what is this drivel?

Thinking that London is so unique that Europe depends on it can be a dangerous thought. Several EU cities are currently working to get the heritage of London. The finance market is not Britain's pledge to get access to the free market, it is the prey for those who remain in the EU.

Those several cities will take a lot of money and a lot of time to become a replacement for London. Time is money lost and investment would be at risk of being made worthless through a deal.

May is in a very uncomfortable situation. There is the gun at her head created by the BREXIT mandate. But there is also the issue of Ireland (cannot imagine how they will find a solution there), Scotland, Gibraltar, the finance market etc. Impossible for me to see how she could find a solution for all these problems.

As a politician all she need care about is being reelected and the greatest portion of her electoral support comes from brexiters. She will never be reelected by them if she settles for a raw deal and she will never get enough european sympathetics to vote for her to make up the loss.

She has three choices: all, nothing or retirement. Merkel on the other hand has much less to lose if she capitulates.

And of course there are the expectations and needs of the Brits. From what I have read, it seems to me that they are a bit emotionally. On one hand they think that nothings really changes, the same advantages for the economy just without foreigners and without EU administration and without payment to Brussels. On the other hand, they fear that EU wants to punish them.
Both views are unrealistic. Britain leaves the Union because it wants to make the best policy for its own people. The EU has the same mandate for the Europeans. So I expect that they are trying to get the best conditions for Europe just as the British are trying to get the best result for the UK. In the end I guess the bigger party will get the bigger piece of cake; that's how it always is. Small countries cannot compete with big ones.

You've forgotten what nations are for and are deluded about what the EU does.

You sound like Verhofstadt.

By the way, do you remember that the Switzerland had a mandate to limit the free mobility of EU citizens in Switzerland?

I remember, I also remember what you did to greece. We're not greece.

The EU has become a thug.

Britain doesnt bow to thugs.

[Greyblades]

I am not convinced they are not just saying it; it is not wise for a nation to enable it's ally's seperatists while your own are straining at the leash.
Especially when they have thier eyes on gibraltar; To say anything that would weaken the UK's position seems logical at this point, to mean what they say is another matter.

The chances of scotland meeting entry requirements to getting into the EU soon after separation are low, and spain isnt going to give them the easy ride the eastern nations had.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

They can just move to the UK before Spain takes over. There's no need to abandon them.

No, not really.

I am not very familiar with the people living at Gibraltar. However, what I heard is that most of them voted against the BREXIT and are afraid of it. I assume all they want is to live at Gibraltar and have good relations to the UK and Spain. Caused by the BREXIT, there will be a frontier to Spain. I doubt that the Gibraltarians really want to be defended in a war UK against Spain. Neither do they want to move to the UK (or they would have done already). Gibraltar is one of the losers of the BREXIT.

The Gibraltarians are British, but they not English, or Scottish, or Welsh, or Irish. There is, in fact, already a frontier with Spain - one the Spanish choked off a few years ago.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24954881

Yes, the Gibraltarians wanted to remain in the EU, but more than that they emphatically want to be British.

I think this whole Gibraltar issue is just the first negotiation move from EU side. They wanted to see British reaction to a provocation and they got an emotional response, which i think they were hoping for.

Based on this, the reaction to EU's support for possibly independent Scotland staying in EU after breaking off from Britain, should be devastating. It is just a shame that European politics are turning like this once again. I would rather that the democratic West would just get along.

If you expect support for an Independent Scotland joining the EU to provoke a more violent reaction than the issue of Gibraltar you have sadly missed the point. If the Scots wish to leave, let them leave - if they wish to join the EU let them.

This is about the right of our people to choose - not about what they choose.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I agree with your opinion about bureaucracy, but Gibraltar?
I think the rock is a national issue for both, Britain and Spain; therefore, no side will draw back. The people living a Gib, if memory serves in 2002 more than 90 per cent wanted to remain British instead of becoming Spaniards. At the Brexit poll 90 per cent voted for staying in Europe.
I do not see any simple solution for this. The EU deescalated the problem, as the people could be British and European at the same time. Now these days are coming to an end. There will be a hard border between Gib. and Spain.
There is no easy solution. Giving Gib. to Spain is most likely not what the people want. Remaining at a Britain outside of Europe either.

Similar but even worse is what I assume for Ireland. How can there be the border between the EU and Ireland, which is for the Brits so important to control, without dividing the two Irelands and causing more trouble.
Does anybody have a good proposal?

Maybe Baskar is right and the British choose the Swiss solution.

It was 99% in favour of remaining British and we already have a "hard border" with Spain there. A border that became very hard in 2013.

As to what will happen - increasingly it looks like there will be no deal, not in two years. We might be able to settle some things like citizen's rights, maybe the exit bill, we may be able to avoid crashing out of the single market but there will be no comprehensive deal. The Reprehensible manoeuvring over Gibraltar has demonstrated the EU will not negotiate in good faith and when negotiations get under way this is what the British diplomats will have uppermost in their minds.

[Beskar]

As for Ireland. The unionists no longer have a majority. Anything dumb on Britains part will result in a referendum which could see unification with the South. If Britain is smart, it will have a special relationship with the South which puts the border at the ocean, not at the land, which gives NI unofficial membership of the EU in all but name. As it will keep its free movement of people and goods with the South.

[Gilrandir]

It's going to be a nice sunny day when more people realise that the EU is a useless ultra-undemocratic bureaucratic hindrance and nothing more.

Then people in GB are never gonna realise it since there are no sunny days in Britain.

[Gilrandir]

The people living a Gib, if memory serves in 2002 more than 90 per cent wanted to remain British instead of becoming Spaniards. At the Brexit poll 90 per cent voted for staying in Europe.

Then one more referendum just for Gibraltar should be held where people will have to choose whether they want to stay British but outside the EU or they want to stay within the EU but stop being British.

The EU has become a thug.

Britain doesnt bow to thugs.

It doesn't, it sometimes salutes them:

[Idaho]

I remember, I also remember what you did to greece. We're not greece.

The EU has become a thug.

Britain doesnt bow to thugs.

What *he* did to Greece?

This is strident sounding nonsense. Bluster and stupidity. Sounds like the kind of drivel that May has been coming out with.

[Kagemusha]

Here is one issue, that have not yet gained much attention:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-weber-brexit

It would seem that EU is not going to leave Euro Clearing to London after Brexit, which is going to hit the British financial sector pretty hard. Maybe it will move to Amsterdam, interesting to see what Frag´s says if it does.

[Franconicus]

Does anybody know what the regulations between Europe and UK were before UK asked to be allowed to join? Even though things changed since then and the EU became more important, it may be a good and rather realistic starting point to go back where it all began.

Then all joined programs like research, student exchanges, etc. could be stopped, I think that could be done pretty quickly. Then both sides agree to accept that people from the other party are allowed to stay, but no new ones ought to come. Then we should have a pretty fast exit without wasting time and money with negotiations. And after this we could think about what could become better, where both sides want to cooperate - standards for cars for example.
What a smart plan. I should become politician.


I was thinking about Greyblade's argument that the European industry wants to have access to Britain's market. And I wonder if this is not just wishful thinking.
What would happen if there would not be any agreement on trade? The UK would introduce custom fees for cars, for example, the EU would do the same for British cars. So manufacturers on the islands would have a benefit in the UK, but a drawback on the continent and vice versa. I assume that Toyota and Ford sell much more cars on the continent than in the UK, so they will likely transfer their production to the continent, to avoid the disadvantages. In the end, all cars to Britain would be imported, either from the US or Europe. Buyers in the UK would have to pay higher prices caused by transport costs and fees. There would be more cars produced at Europe. Maybe I forgot something but I cannot see what is the strong position created by the UK market.

Same, maybe even worse, is the finance market. Greyblade claims that Europe depends on London. Now we all had to learn how easy it is to transfer industrial production to a foreign country. I do not see why this should be more complicated with finance. London did not become the finance centre it is because the English are so excellent mathematicians but because the government did a lot to create a perfect environment. Now with the Brexit the situation change fundamentally. Environment is not so good anymore.