EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Pannonian]

I can totally get behind that you weighed the pros and cons and that you found the risks acceptable with what is at stake here.

I have very low opinion of general populace's ability to do that, and I think it might get ugly when they see they didn't get what was essentially promised to them by the Brexiters.

If the general Leave-voting electorate were of a mind with Furunculus, there would be no need for the government to obfuscate over the economic impact of Brexit. That they are blackening the name of the civil service in order to deny that Brexit has negative economic consequences tells you much about how they think th British electorate will take the results. One senior civil servant has called this "Dolchstosslegende", Brexit-pushing politicians claiming that Brexit would have been a success but for the backstabbing efforts of the civil service.

[Pannonian]

In an Treasury analysis viewable by MPs, every region in the UK is reported to do badly from Brexit, with the closest relationship to EU membership minimising the negative impact, and the furthest maximising it. London is affected the least, but the regions most pro-Brexit will be the most badly affected, with double figure drops in growth in the event of no deal. The forecasts are listed in terms of single market and customs union, free trade, and no deal. For London, the drops in growth forecast will be 1%, 2% and 3.5%. For the north east, the drops will be 3%, 11% and 16%. For comparison, Furunculus reckons we will attain steady growth rates of 1-1.5% which will be acceptable to his eyes.

[rory_20_uk]

In an Treasury analysis viewable by MPs, every region in the UK is reported to do badly from Brexit, with the closest relationship to EU membership minimising the negative impact, and the furthest maximising it. London is affected the least, but the regions most pro-Brexit will be the most badly affected, with double figure drops in growth in the event of no deal. The forecasts are listed in terms of single market and customs union, free trade, and no deal. For London, the drops in growth forecast will be 1%, 2% and 3.5%. For the north east, the drops will be 3%, 11% and 16%. For comparison, Furunculus reckons we will attain steady growth rates of 1-1.5% which will be acceptable to his eyes.

When has analysis ever gone wrong...? They seem to do a lot better with precision than accuracy.







Sometimes really wrong:



But yes, sure. This time their modelling will be bang on. The irony is that if they could get this right within the measure of a guess, they could make a killing on the stockmarket.

[Pannonian]

If the government is confident that the analyses are wrong, why didn't they release them to Parliament anyway, whilst stating why they thought they were wrong? Why did they originally block Parliament from seeing them? Was the government right not to trust Parliament with the information?

And BTW, are you accusing the analysts of being biased against Brexit and thus deliberately producing negative analyses?

[Pannonian]

Also, if the EU allows individual Brits to apply for continued EU citizenship, would the Leavers here voluntarily refrain from doing so?

[rory_20_uk]

If the government is confident that the analyses are wrong, why didn't they release them to Parliament anyway, whilst stating why they thought they were wrong? Why did they originally block Parliament from seeing them? Was the government right not to trust Parliament with the information?

How on earth would I know the inner workings of anyone at Westminster? More often than not it appears to be a large playground full of children who sadly govern our future.

I think that MPs are almost all universally ill equipped for reviewing / analysing any of the data they are given on any subject matter they are given even before their political beliefs are taken into account as such farces as Ms Abbot demonstrate every time she opens her mouth. It would require the best polymaths to be able to do so - and we sure don't have them in charge.

But hoping for an all-knowing benevolent leader is more a matter of religion that running a country.

[rory_20_uk]

Also, if the EU allows individual Brits to apply for continued EU citizenship, would the Leavers here voluntarily refrain from doing so?

Humour me - what does one have to do with the other? For example, I like Germany. I would love to visit there again - work allowing. Of the Germans I meet in my line of work I prefer them to the ones in the UK as they have a much better attitude. I seem to end up visiting Switzerland more frequently. And lo and behold they are not in the EU either. In both places my passport is checked.

Passports are given out by Sovereign entities. Requiring both is sort of exactly what Leavers have been wanting. Either Sovereign authority then has the power to rescind theirs as they so desire. Just like how having any other passport for any other country in the world. It would only be an issue for those who already have an additional one to the UK.

[Pannonian]

How on earth would I know the inner workings of anyone at Westminster? More often than not it appears to be a large playground full of children who sadly govern our future.

I think that MPs are almost all universally ill equipped for reviewing / analysing any of the data they are given on any subject matter they are given even before their political beliefs are taken into account as such farces as Ms Abbot demonstrate every time she opens her mouth. It would require the best polymaths to be able to do so - and we sure don't have them in charge.

But hoping for an all-knowing benevolent leader is more a matter of religion that running a country.

So would you be up for removing sovereignty from Parliament? If so, who should be the decision making body? Since you're equally against the analyses of economic experts where they relate to the economy.

BTW, the above analysis was done by DExEU, the department in charge of Brexit.

[Pannonian]

Humour me - what does one have to do with the other? For example, I like Germany. I would love to visit there again - work allowing. Of the Germans I meet in my line of work I prefer them to the ones in the UK as they have a much better attitude. I seem to end up visiting Switzerland more frequently. And lo and behold they are not in the EU either. In both places my passport is checked.

Passports are given out by Sovereign entities. Requiring both is sort of exactly what Leavers have been wanting. Either Sovereign authority then has the power to rescind theirs as they so desire. Just like how having any other passport for any other country in the world. It would only be an issue for those who already have an additional one to the UK.

Freedom of movement of labour. One of May's red lines.

[rory_20_uk]

Freedom of movement of labour. One of May's red lines.

One that can be rescinded by the issuer of the passport - not possible when the passport is given by someone else. So this in fact is not freedom of movement as it is currently.

[rory_20_uk]

So would you be up for removing sovereignty from Parliament? If so, who should be the decision making body? Since you're equally against the analyses of economic experts where they relate to the economy.

BTW, the above analysis was done by DExEU, the department in charge of Brexit.

No I would not be since I can not think of a better system to replace it, depressing though that might be.

So you believe all economic analysis is completely accurate and should be followed unswervingly? Why on earth would I care which group came up with analysis? Are there some with perfect visions of the future? Who are these modern day magicians? Or is it that the analysis is going to be biased by the group that created it, that they pick whichever numbers and assumptions fit their narrative? in which case it is all so suspect I wonder why you decided to post it as if it meant something.

[Furunculus]

For comparison, Furunculus reckons we will attain steady growth rates of 1-1.5% which will be acceptable to his eyes.

Are you my personal troll, running round misrepresenting my views at every turn?

The economic cost of brexit is important, as one half of the power equation is compound growth over time, realtive to your peers.
UK growth has declined from ~2.5-3.5 percent in 1970 to 1.5-2.5 percent today... pretty much like every other post industrial western society with an inverted population pyramid.
"Over time", means long-term growth, and I see no reason for brexit to change the fundamental economic potential of the UK economy....
...as long as UK policy public policy responds to changed circumstances (something a lot of the referendum doom-casts explicitly did not do).

What is the horizon of these forecasts?
What accommodation do they make for policy response to changed circumstances?

Pah! If we wanted 2,800,000 million fewer jobs then we could simply adopt a highly regulated labour market. Like France, for instance...

[Pannonian]

And a former NI secretary supports the ending of the Good Friday Agreement, with other Brexiteers piping up with their own support. Well this would end the impasse over the Northern Ireland border, but goodness knows what this will do to the UK's (aka England's) credibility on their willingness to follow multilaterally agreed treaties.

[rory_20_uk]

The EU wants a customs border. Their member, Ireland doesn't - they can't even agree with themselves. The UK doesn't want an internal customs border, unsurprisingly.

How, exactly, is this a failing of the UK?

[Sir Moody]

The EU wants a customs border. Their member, Ireland doesn't - they can't even agree with themselves. The UK doesn't want an internal customs border, unsurprisingly.

How, exactly, is this a failing of the UK?

Because we are forcing their hand - the EU has been completely open about their reasoning.

In order to not have a custom border we need to remain in the single market - we however are constantly insisting we want to leave the customs union and instead negotiate access to the single market, something that will require a border - we cant have it both ways.

[Fragony]

Interesting, the Netherlands refuses to pay more to close the gab for schnaps it seems at the moment. It will knowing our overhead(joke for Dutchies)

[rory_20_uk]

Because we are forcing their hand - the EU has been completely open about their reasoning.

In order to not have a custom border we need to remain in the single market - we however are constantly insisting we want to leave the customs union and instead negotiate access to the single market, something that will require a border - we cant have it both ways.

So... the system completely works as long as no one asks them to change anything from what they want.

Leaving aside the wants of the the main island, as is so often the case it is Ireland that is causing problems on both sides - Ireland scared of loosing business and Northern Ireland wanting to remain part of the country they are y'know, part of.

That the EU has clearly explained their position doesn't make it any more sensible - "the EU wants this, but when we get the countries to vote on it, at least one member state refuses anything but you accepting an internal border in your state. All good?"

Rather like the EU saying they are frustrated in the UK not being clear in what they want. The UK was clear. The EU said no. The EU was clear. The UK said no. Then there is this process called negotiation where both sides have to compromise. Or else the EU should have just said "Vae victis - Tony screwed you in the 1990's with the Treaties he signed which totally didn't need any agreement by the people"

[Husar]

So... the system completely works as long as no one asks them to change anything from what they want.

It's not the EU's fault that the UK is a weird semi-feudal remnant of the past that includes half-conquered nations and internal strife from colonial oppression.
If Poland wanted to leave, it wouldn't have the same weird internal border issues that you do, that's entirely down to the weird way you formed your "nation"...

[rory_20_uk]

It's not the EU's fault that the UK is a weird semi-feudal remnant of the past that includes half-conquered nations and internal strife from colonial oppression.
If Poland wanted to leave, it wouldn't have the same weird internal border issues that you do, that's entirely down to the weird way you formed your "nation"...

Ah, blame the sovereign state. One has to laugh when Germany criticises the border issues of others... These inconvenient issues were due to the population asked what they want. You would have thought we'd learn to only offer democracy when people understand what they are supposed to do.

If the EU didn't have such a weird voting system the Irish could be overruled and there would be no issue - having a system of negotiating that is reminiscent of the USSR where the suit at the desk is but a puppet for 27 puppeteers.

What about overseas territories that are owned by EU countries? These all seem to have exemptions and odd rules.

[Pannonian]

Ah, blame the sovereign state. One has to laugh when Germany criticises the border issues of others... These inconvenient issues were due to the population asked what they want. You would have thought we'd learn to only offer democracy when people understand what they are supposed to do.

If the EU didn't have such a weird voting system the Irish could be overruled and there would be no issue - having a system of negotiating that is reminiscent of the USSR where the suit at the desk is but a puppet for 27 puppeteers.

What about overseas territories that are owned by EU countries? These all seem to have exemptions and odd rules.

You want a third party to overrule a bilateral agreement? Didn't you have a problem with the ECJ supposedly having jurisdiction over British affairs? Or is it only applicable when it suits you?

[Husar]

Ah, blame the sovereign state. One has to laugh when Germany criticises the border issues of others... These inconvenient issues were due to the population asked what they want.

The Scottish people wanted to be invaded by the English and the Irish voted for a land border in Ireland?
The EU also didn't vote for a customs border with the UK, so...

What about overseas territories that are owned by EU countries? These all seem to have exemptions and odd rules.

That's also weird, but not a problem as long as they don't vote to leave the EU. Perhaps not even then because overseas territory usually hints at there not being a land border anyway.

[Pannonian]

BTW, the main problem isn't Ireland being afraid of losing business, or indeed anything EU-related. One of the problems is the change to the status quo which Brexit has decreed. And that change is necessitated by WTO rules, not EU rules. It's something that Holland has done something about, and which the Dutch have noted the British have done next to nothing about. I've mentioned the problem a few times already in this thread, as a colossal waste of money.

[rory_20_uk]

The Scottish people wanted to be invaded by the English and the Irish voted for a land border in Ireland?
The EU also didn't vote for a customs border with the UK, so...

That's also weird, but not a problem as long as they don't vote to leave the EU. Perhaps not even then because overseas territory usually hints at there not being a land border anyway.

The English invaded Scotland, the Scottish England. The Scottish clans fought each other. But the Scottish king took the English throne. James VI / James I? Pre-the EU I know, so probably not relevant. After Braveheart. Forget I mentioned it.

Yes, Ireland did vote whether they wanted to be part of Northern Ireland or part of the South. Some areas moved to the south, some elected to remain. So... having a grasp of history helps.

The land boarder is not the issue more than there being a border. There are other areas that are not land borders. Like Corsica. If you have a quick peek at a map there are quite a few. I was referring to the territories owned by countries in the EU but are not in the EU.

[Husar]

The English invaded Scotland, the Scottish England. The Scottish clans fought each other. But the Scottish king took the English throne. James VI / James I? Pre-the EU I know, so probably not relevant. After Braveheart. Forget I mentioned it.

Yes, Ireland did vote whether they wanted to be part of Northern Ireland or part of the South. Some areas moved to the south, some elected to remain. So... having a grasp of history helps.

The land boarder is not the issue more than there being a border. There are other areas that are not land borders. Like Corsica. If you have a quick peek at a map there are quite a few. I was referring to the territories owned by countries in the EU but are not in the EU.

How is any of that the EU's fault then? They all get what they voted for.

[Pannonian]

How is any of that the EU's fault then? They all get what they voted for.

And, as the Dutch have noted, they're nowhere near implementing what they voted for. The Dutch are doing their bit to prepare for hard Brexit, which they're now expecting. The Irish government don't want a hard Brexit, as it will be immensely expensive through no doing of their own. The British government, choosing hard Brexit of their own accord, nonetheless don't want to pay to implement it. And the expenses aren't due to EU rules, but WTO rules. It's typical that Brexiteers regardless of the facts choose to blame the EU anyway. Still, I have little doubt that Ireland will be helped by the others to pay for the hard border, in order to safeguard the EU's integrity as per WTO requirements. The UK's side will have to be paid for by the UK alone though. And the UK government don't want to pay, and the UK people largely aren't interested in the facts, as they weren't interest in facts throughout the referendum campaign.

And the Japanese ambassador has warned the UK government that Japanese auto industries exist in the UK only as a portal to the EU market. If there are any barriers, don't expect them to remain in the UK. Never mind, what does he know about such things, eh. We've had enough of experts touting their expert opinions. The Will of the People (TM) must triumph.

[rory_20_uk]

How is any of that the EU's fault then? They all get what they voted for.

The Irish don't see it that way "we want to be in the EU and have no borders with the UK as you know the Troubles are only just over and if we don't get our way perhaps this is a thinly veiled threat we'll start bombing things again".

It is the EU's problem since Ireland is in the EU.

[Pannonian]

The Irish don't see it that way "we want to be in the EU and have no borders with the UK as you know the Troubles are only just over and if we don't get our way perhaps this is a thinly veiled threat we'll start bombing things again".

It is the EU's problem since Ireland is in the EU.

How many additional customs officers have we hired in preparation for Brexit? The Dutch have just authorised 750-930. Their expectation is that, if they need hundreds, the British with their land border need thousands. How many additional customs officers have we hired?

[Husar]

The Irish don't see it that way "we want to be in the EU and have no borders with the UK as you know the Troubles are only just over and if we don't get our way perhaps this is a thinly veiled threat we'll start bombing things again".

It is the EU's problem since Ireland is in the EU.

From whom is that quote? Did the Irish PM say they will start a terror campaign if there's a land border or are you making things up?

And no, it's not the EU doing this to Ireland, the EU never voted for Brexit. The British people voted for Brexit (well, enough of them) and the British government is negotiating the deal. The EU can not bend over backwards just to prevent a tiny land border in Ireland, although I can see how someone who is for Brexit and would like to see the EU crumble would dream about that...
If Ireland wants the border to be open so badly, they will either have to get the UK to negotiate a deal with an open border according to the EU rules for such open trade or they can leave as well and join the UK, see how that works out for them. It's not like Ireland cared the other way around when they offered companies a tax rate of 0.5% just to get the jobs to their country.

[rory_20_uk]

From whom is that quote? Did the Irish PM say they will start a terror campaign if there's a land border or are you making things up?

And no, it's not the EU doing this to Ireland, the EU never voted for Brexit. The British people voted for Brexit (well, enough of them) and the British government is negotiating the deal. The EU can not bend over backwards just to prevent a tiny land border in Ireland, although I can see how someone who is for Brexit and would like to see the EU crumble would dream about that...
If Ireland wants the border to be open so badly, they will either have to get the UK to negotiate a deal with an open border according to the EU rules for such open trade or they can leave as well and join the UK, see how that works out for them. It's not like Ireland cared the other way around when they offered companies a tax rate of 0.5% just to get the jobs to their country.

When exactly did the Irish government undertake terror in the UK? Are you being intentionally obtuse, or really that ignorant of events that occurred before the EU was founded? Does the Good Friday agreement ring a bell? IRA? The Provosts? The Troubles?

The Irish want no border. The UK doesn't want a border. The EU insists that there is one. It really is that simple. Yes, Ireland could leave and that would also be fine. But as it stands it is the EU that is demanding the border, and no amount of hurrumphing (yes, Ireland has broken many EU tax laws - but that is not relevant) and finger pointing alters that.

And your "solution" is to get Ireland to get the UK to unilaterally follow all EU rules just for their benefit? And if this were to occur the EU might then deign to accept no borders - although with the option of blocking them off if they should ever choose.

I don't want the EU to crumble. I don't want the USA to crumble. They are two large Federal States of which the UK trades and mainly works with.

[Pannonian]

When exactly did the Irish government undertake terror in the UK? Are you being intentionally obtuse, or really that ignorant of events that occurred before the EU was founded? Does the Good Friday agreement ring a bell? IRA? The Provosts? The Troubles?

The Irish want no border. The UK doesn't want a border. The EU insists that there is one. It really is that simple. Yes, Ireland could leave and that would also be fine. But as it stands it is the EU that is demanding the border, and no amount of hurrumphing (yes, Ireland has broken many EU tax laws - but that is not relevant) and finger pointing alters that.

And your "solution" is to get Ireland to get the UK to unilaterally follow all EU rules just for their benefit? And if this were to occur the EU might then deign to accept no borders - although with the option of blocking them off if they should ever choose.

I don't want the EU to crumble. I don't want the USA to crumble. They are two large Federal States of which the UK trades and mainly works with.

How utterly typical that a Brexiteer blames the EU for everything. The EU has proposed a plan for an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. It's the UK that's turned it down, by insisting on certain conditions. And under these conditions, it's the WTO, not the EU, that demands a hard border. The Dutch have decided to hire an additional 750 customs officers in preparation for a hard Brexit, rising to 930 if it's a no deal Brexit, citing the cluelessness of the UK negotiators as the clock ticks down. How many have the UK hired?

Oh, and BTW, given your outrage that the UK should be required to unilaterally follow all EU rules, note that various industries, including agriculture, are planning to do just that. Whether or not the UK government requires them to. It's to their benefit that they follow EU rules. I'd like to know how you plan to get around the JIT processes governing the UK's complex industries though. Or do you think the UK should devolve back to cottage industries employing family members?