EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Pannonian]

Experts aren't always experts, the academic world is full of frauds and essays for hire. I also got university degrees (multiple), I do not take them serious at all I just read books

Have you listened to Mr Trucker? Or the reps of the UK logistics industry? They are indeed for hire. They're hired to move the UK's trade around. Are they worth listening to?

[Fragony]

Have you listened to Mr Trucker? Or the reps of the UK logistics industry? They are indeed for hire. They're hired to move the UK's trade around. Are they worth listening to?

Can't say I have. As it looks you have won the argument the brexit seems to be dead, fold it up with a special kiss from me to seal it

Brexit is gone, sadly

[Pannonian]

Can't say I have. As it looks you have won the argument the brexit seems to be dead, fold it up with a special kiss from me to seal it

Brexit is gone, sadly

Why nor read up on what Mr Trucker had to say, or the extrapolations that the logistics reps make over the UK? These are the people who are the lifeblood of British trade, so they're not academic theorists, unlike the economists that Furunculus is fond of citing. They deal with everyday reality. Are they experts worth listening to?

[Fragony]

Why nor read up on what Mr Trucker had to say, or the extrapolations that the logistics reps make over the UK? These are the people who are the lifeblood of British trade, so they're not academic theorists, unlike the economists that Furunculus is fond of citing. They deal with everyday reality. Are they experts worth listening to?

It's always good to listen, without having looking it up I wonder where their market is, I bet it is not in the global market that is much more important for the UK. Again, I haven't actually looked it up. Brexiteers have lost and should just take it

[Pannonian]

It's always good to listen, without having looking it up I wonder where their market is, I bet it is not in the global market that is much more important for the UK. Again, I haven't actually looked it up. Brexiteers have lost and should just take it

As the resigned Brexit minister admitted, he was surprised at how important the Calais-Dover route is in British trade, even in the context of the whole UK. The EU-UK logistical trail is critical to the UK, and the sources I cite are the experts on the subject. To dismiss them in favour of looking at the macro economy, as Furunculus does, is to wilfully miss the point. No logistics, no trade, no matter how much you fiddle the numbers and talk about global market and other buzz terms. Just because you win a vote to have unicorns does not mean unicorns will exist.

[Fragony]

As the resigned Brexit minister admitted, he was surprised at how important the Calais-Dover route is in British trade, even in the context of the whole UK. The EU-UK logistical trail is critical to the UK, and the sources I cite are the experts on the subject. To dismiss them in favour of looking at the macro economy, as Furunculus does, is to wilfully miss the point. No logistics, no trade, no matter how much you fiddle the numbers and talk about global market and other buzz terms. Just because you win a vote to have unicorns does not mean unicorns will exist.

But that traderoute wouldn't have been closed, just made more expensive. I think it a missed oppertunity to get rid of Brussels which I see as an increasingly scary overhead, my fever dreams of a possible Nexit are shattered as a Dutch-UK trade alliance could have been much more influential than the French-German dominance there is now. There is hardly any growth in the EU-zone, only the UK and the Netherlands excel, we could be so much better. The Netherlands especially has a knive on the throat of Germany's industry, and everybody else because we produce their food, we shouldn't have to listen to these idiots we can do it all ourself, when backed. Such a shame, with Denmark and Norway and maybe even the ever neutral Switzerland we could have got out of this mess

[Husar]

But that traderoute wouldn't have been closed, just made more expensive.

I think Pannonian said several times that it would effectively be almost closed for a while because of the border checks for which the UK doesn't have anywhere near enough border agents since they didn't train any in advance.

And concerning overhead, having several thousand more border agents and taking over other EU functions that require personnel is not free either.

[Fragony]

I think Pannonian said several times that it would effectively be almost closed for a while because of the border checks for which the UK doesn't have anywhere near enough border agents since they didn't train any in advance.

And concerning overhead, having several thousand more border agents and taking over other EU functions that require personnel is not free either.

Has nothing to do with traderoutes

[Husar]

Has nothing to do with traderoutes

traderoutes don't cross borders?

[Fragony]

traderoutes don't cross borders?

Of course they do but it are seperate manners

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Of course they do but it are seperate manners

In terms of specific function yes, Frags, but they are all part of the larger process of trade and by extension of the economies involved.

[Pannonian]

Has nothing to do with traderoutes

Seriously, listen to Mr Trucker and read the parliamentary report that cites his account. We're not talking about computer games and sliding scales where you can allocate resources. Also, you mentioned earlier about your dream Nexit. The Netherlands announced they were prepared for no deal Brexit months ago.

[Pannonian]

In terms of specific function yes, Frags, but they are all part of the larger process of trade and by extension of the economies involved.

More relevantly, there are specific details that my cited sources highlight, that absolutely no Brexiteer has attempted to engage with. Because they are unavoidable and unarguable, and the scale cannot be judged. The UK, as a third country, will receive permits for 5% of the trade journeys currently made. Whatever else happens, there will be that bottleneck. That was why the government announced that, in the event of no deal, it would take control of these logistics so as to prioritise the critically important over everything else. The last time a UK government did that was on the outbreak of WW2 when we expected to be blockaded. I'm not sure if May's agreement opens up that bottleneck, but I suppose the relevant institutions will comment once they've digested the details.

[Fragony]

In terms of specific function yes, Frags, but they are all part of the larger process of trade and by extension of the economies involved.

Holding back other trade. The UK and the Netherlands combined would have been formitable, we wouldn't have had to listen to anyone. The French-German EU marches on

[rory_20_uk]

And Spain moves on Gibraltar. Hardly surprising - will any other countries have last minute gripes that the leverage of a veto vote on Brexit is just too good a chance to pass up?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

And Spain moves on Gibraltar. Hardly surprising - will any other countries have last minute gripes that the leverage of a veto vote on Brexit is just too good a chance to pass up?

Not that surprising. The re-acquisition of Gibraltar has been a Spanish goal since the early 18th, pursued with differing levels of vigor depending on the era and the government. You could make an argument that this is one of the few policy goals shared by all the divers Spanish governments ever since the Brits took it -- the most consistent element of their national policy.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Holding back other trade. The UK and the Netherlands combined would have been formitable, we wouldn't have had to listen to anyone. The French-German EU marches on

While I agree that EU policy skews Franco-German in orientation, Frags, I don't think either country's take on things is that divergent from the bulk of European sensibilities -- including a sizeable slice of those of your fellow Nederlanders. At least on this side of the pond, we do not hear too much about France or Germany dictating terms to the rest of Europe under threat of economic sanctions or what not (excepting pushing Greece on the specifics of the bailout -- which could be argued as reasonable given the economic basket-case they'd made of themselves). They have the largest populations and economies in the collective, so it is pretty natural that they have a significant say. Florida and Texas have a lot more leverage in our Congress than does Idaho.


You are also, with respect, undercutting your own previous penchant for national rugged individualism and a Nexit with that "combined would have been formidable, we wouldn't have to listen to anyone." Such a power combination was, I believe, a primary reason for the European Union.

[Pannonian]

While I agree that EU policy skews Franco-German in orientation, Frags, I don't think either country's take on things is that divergent from the bulk of European sensibilities -- including a sizeable slice of those of your fellow Nederlanders. At least on this side of the pond, we do not hear too much about France or Germany dictating terms to the rest of Europe under threat of economic sanctions or what not (excepting pushing Greece on the specifics of the bailout -- which could be argued as reasonable given the economic basket-case they'd made of themselves). They have the largest populations and economies in the collective, so it is pretty natural that they have a significant say. Florida and Texas have a lot more leverage in our Congress than does Idaho.


You are also, with respect, undercutting your own previous penchant for national rugged individualism and a Nexit with that "combined would have been formidable, we wouldn't have to listen to anyone." Such a power combination was, I believe, a primary reason for the European Union.

And economically, the UK has been the biggest shaper of the current EU.

[Gilrandir]

And economically, the UK has been the biggest shaper of the current EU.

Was

[Kagemusha]

While I agree that EU policy skews Franco-German in orientation, Frags, I don't think either country's take on things is that divergent from the bulk of European sensibilities -- including a sizeable slice of those of your fellow Nederlanders. At least on this side of the pond, we do not hear too much about France or Germany dictating terms to the rest of Europe under threat of economic sanctions or what not (excepting pushing Greece on the specifics of the bailout -- which could be argued as reasonable given the economic basket-case they'd made of themselves). They have the largest populations and economies in the collective, so it is pretty natural that they have a significant say. Florida and Texas have a lot more leverage in our Congress than does Idaho.


You are also, with respect, undercutting your own previous penchant for national rugged individualism and a Nexit with that "combined would have been formidable, we wouldn't have to listen to anyone." Such a power combination was, I believe, a primary reason for the European Union.

I think Seamus makes a rather good point here. Frags. Why are you so willing to group with Britain, while no doubt Netherlands would be the junior partner in such partnership, while you detest grouping with Germany and France within EU? Is it the current conservative Government? If so would the end of such partnership come immediately the next time Labour wins the British elections?

In my opinion, it is rather sad that Britain is leaving EU as it had a big role within EU as her influence had a stabilizing effect and could at times deter the power block of Germany and France within EU.Now with GB leaving there wont be such possibility and EU is going the develop the way Germany and France will see fit. Only opportunities for other EU countries to make a real difference will be when those two will be off different opinion concerning certain policies.

The good thing is of course that novadays Germans are not gassing people anymore and the French are not chopping heads off like no tomorrow, at least for now. Still without Britain,the smaller EU countries will see their influence diminished further. Which most of the time will be off no consequence, but still may create more anti EU sentiment in many of the EU countries.

[Furunculus]

I agree, kaga. It is a shame, and even now I would happily retract art50 with one minor change to Camerons renegotiation: make Britain's exemption from ever closer union applicable to all.
but that failure made it clear the EU was a project in which we had no future, in not sharing the driving ambition of the project.
yes, the smaller nations will suffer as a result, and suffer from increased populism.

[Pannonian]

Richard North (who coined the Brexit model that Furunculus is fond of) on Peter Lilley and the ERG

That is the measure of the man, and the ERG (to say nothing of Global Britain). But it also illustrates the problem we have when authoritative figures decide to lie. His 75 words takes nearly 1,700 of mine to knock them down. The lies spread faster than they can be challenged and corrected.

And, although I am calling Lord Lilley out as a liar, on a well-read blog, he will do nothing. He dare not. Instead, he will go into denial – in common with his political acolytes. That is the way these people work: they ignore criticism, pretending it does not exist and just go on repeating their lies.

However, Lilley has done us a service, illustrating once again how the ERG works. These people are not to be trusted and the case they make, founded on lies, is terminally flawed. The way they behave is disgusting. They add immeasurably to the debasement of politics, and the erosion of trust.

Brexit is almost entirely founded on lies.

[Furunculus]

for reference - the gruaniad populist quiz places me alongside angela merkel on the populist index:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng...t-are-you-quiz

[Furunculus]

Richard North (who coined the Brexit model that Furunculus is fond of) on Peter Lilley and the ERG


Brexit is almost entirely founded on lies.

flexcit was coined by richard north, but it's fairer to see i'm very fond of the authoritative research that went into building his model. have you read it? ;) but i don't think that flexcit is a bad model, quite the opposite.

equally, i don't think chequers (mk2?) is a bad model.

but you are being disingenuous in inferring the conclusion: "Brexit is almost entirely founded on lies." as if they sprang from richard north's mouth, when he is having a go at the ERG for their quite separate and distinct proposal.

saying that Brexit is almost entirely founded on lies is a statement exactly as fatuous as is this: "The Remain campaign is almost entirely founded on lies."
it has some cross-cutting truths, but does not speak to the 'truth' of the matter. on either side!

[Furunculus]

[bleh]...

[Pannonian]

p.s. you're terribly fond of name checking me in your great revelations of misdoing, but you never address the detailed and thoughtful posts i attempt to craft to further the discussion.

why?

Because you dismissed the primary sources I linked to? You keep linking to IEA studies, when the IEA is pretty much discredited by its offering to shape its research to whichever right wing interests fund it (such as the chairman of IEA offering to put on a good show for US agribusiness). But have you listened to Mr Trucker or read the parliamentary report on logistics yet? These guys don't deal with theory that can be wrangled to suit whoever offers to pay them. They carry the UK's trade, at micro and at macro level. Mr Trucker describes what happens at micro level. The report describes what happens at macro level. If you dismiss them, you have nothing useful to say about British trade.

Example: Kate Hoey, one of the foremost Brexiteer politicians, says something that contradicts Mr Trucker. Does this mean there are two sides to every story? The BBC takes a Brexiteer (voter), a business owner, through a typical trucking journey, letting him see the process for himself. He doesn't encounter any of the problems Mr Trucker alludes to; just a normal, hassle free journey. But at the end of it, he concludes that he'd been lied to by the Leave politicians. There aren't two sides to the story of Brexit. There is the side of objective, corroborable truth; then there is the Leave side, lying all the way. See the claim that Turkey will join the EU, or that Leave will divert 350m/wk to the NHS.

[Furunculus]

we're both equally guilty on that score, as i don't think you've read 400 pages of flexcit. i confess, i dodged 15 minutes of video.

iea is no more and no less discredited on that count than any other think tank.

"There aren't two sides to the story of Brexit. There is the side of objective, corroborable truth; then there is the Leave side, lying all the way." utter dribbling cobblers.

[Beskar]

"There aren't two sides to the story of Brexit. There is the side of objective, corroborable truth; then there is the Leave side, lying all the way." [/I]utter dribbling cobblers.

I disagree with the cobblers, but I also disagree with the statement. The Leave campaign is mostly based on lies and outright deceit which is pretty much factual. However, there are valid arguments, opinions and reasons for why people want to consider leaving the EU and these are not "lying all the way", There is a difference/nuance.

So for example, I don't believe you are "lying all the way" or intending to. But Nigel or Boris? Hell yes they were.

[Pannonian]

I disagree with the cobblers, but I also disagree with the statement. The Leave campaign is mostly based on lies and outright deceit which is pretty much factual. However, there are valid arguments, opinions and reasons for why people want to consider leaving the EU and these are not "lying all the way", There is a difference/nuance.

So for example, I don't believe you are "lying all the way" or intending to. But Nigel or Boris? Hell yes they were.

See the phishing campaign by Leave, presenting a facade of a football predictions competition fronted by celebs, whose real purpose was to gain contact details for targeted campaigning. Is that democracy?

[Fragony]

I disagree with the cobblers, but I also disagree with the statement. The Leave campaign is mostly based on lies and outright deceit which is pretty much factual. However, there are valid arguments, opinions and reasons for why people want to consider leaving the EU and these are not "lying all the way", There is a difference/nuance.

So for example, I don't believe you are "lying all the way" or intending to. But Nigel or Boris? Hell yes they were.

What is wrong with being independant, it is a lost oppertunity. Theresa May deserves much respect for respecting the outcome of something she didn't believe in herself. What you have now (could still change itś not over yet) is an EU that can overrule your laws, congratutations with that.Congratulations with paying much more money to drunks like Juncker, NGO'ś and lobbyists. Such a waste. You could have been out of this Orwellian nightmare, we Dutch could have been following you