Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 3337

Thread: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

Hybrid View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1
    Humanist Senior Member Franconicus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Trying to get to Utopia
    Posts
    3,482

    Default EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Before BREXIT will come there will - without any doubt - be long expensive negotiations. We, taxpayers from the European Union (and until the end of the negs that includes our friends on the islands) will have to pay for it. So best we can do is lay back and enjoy the spectacle.

    What do you guess, how will the negotiations be running? What will be the results?

  2. #2
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Novi Sad, Serbia
    Posts
    4,306

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    EU holds the stronger hand. The only way UK comes out with a better deal than it has is if EU is on its way to total dissolution, in which case it will matter only for a very short time.

  3. #3
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    No longer in Albion
    Posts
    15,802
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    UK copies EU law into its own which it is doing. Assurances on EU citizens in UK and vice versa. Visa free travel between the two. A free trade deal of some kind or temporary extension of single market till one is finalised. A lot of hot air and blustering.
    "We are living in space-age times but there's too many of us thinking with stone-age minds" - Daryl Davis
    "What makes something right or wrong?" | How to spot a Humanist
    "Men of Quality do not fear Equality." # | "Belief doesn't change facts. Facts, if you are reasonable, should change your beliefs." RG

  4. #4
    Incorruptible Forest Manager Member Tristuskhan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Oaks and Menhirs, Brittany
    Posts
    808

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    As a citizen of one of those countries that are still inside EU, and having no opinion about Brexit I'd say:


    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    Assurances on EU citizens in UK and vice versa.
    F*** you, you're out!

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    Visa free travel between the two.
    P**s off, you're out. If Brits gain that I hope France, Greece and Italy will give refugees their citizenship so that they can, as EU citizens, fulfill their dream of UK, with no visa.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    A free trade deal of some kind or temporary extension of single market till one is finalised.
    You are O-U-T! Be proud and don't beg.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    A lot of hot air and blustering.
    I did my part....
    "Les Cons ça ose tout, c'est même à ça qu'on les reconnait"

    Kentoc'h Mervel Eget Bezañ Saotret - Death feels better than stain, motto of the Breton People. Emgann!

  5. #5
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    8,179
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    I disagree with Samaritan.

    Britain has the greater hand; the market of britain is highly valuable to north european manufacturers and london is currently the only city in europe with the infrastructure to support the financial sector it currently holds. Businesses want the economic status quo to be maintained because to do otherwise would require long, painful,damaging and costly adjustment.

    Combine that pressure on the EU from their own businesses with the mandate of brexit putting the political gun to May's head, the only side that has both the impetus and the means to give significant ground in this contest is the EU.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 04-03-2017 at 16:49.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  6. #6
    Humanist Senior Member Franconicus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Trying to get to Utopia
    Posts
    3,482

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    I disagree with Greyblades.

    The market of GB is interesting, but the EU has a bigger market.
    And yes, business wants things to keep on running without any hurdles. So all regulations should be adjusted between the nations, there should be common standards, common currency, free mobility etc. Ooops, I forgot, the Brits do not want to have that any longer. So there will be an agreement without all of that.

    Thinking that London is so unique that Europe depends on it can be a dangerous thought. Several EU cities are currently working to get the heritage of London. The finance market is not Britain's pledge to get access to the free market, it is the prey for those who remain in the EU.

    May is in a very uncomfortable situation. There is the gun at her head created by the BREXIT mandate. But there is also the issue of Ireland (cannot imagine how they will find a solution there), Scotland, Gibraltar, the finance market etc. Impossible for me to see how she could find a solution for all these problems.

    And of course there are the expectations and needs of the Brits. From what I have read, it seems to me that they are a bit emotionally. On one hand they think that nothings really changes, the same advantages for the economy just without foreigners and without EU administration and without payment to Brussels. On the other hand, they fear that EU wants to punish them.
    Both views are unrealistic. Britain leaves the Union because it wants to make the best policy for its own people. The EU has the same mandate for the Europeans. So I expect that they are trying to get the best conditions for Europe just as the British are trying to get the best result for the UK. In the end I guess the bigger party will get the bigger piece of cake; that's how it always is. Small countries cannot compete with big ones.

    By the way, do you remember that the Switzerland had a mandate to limit the free mobility of EU citizens in Switzerland?

  7. #7
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    The EUSSR
    Posts
    30,680

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    It's the comfortable bliss of eurocrats that is under attack. Eurocrats canlt look beyond their precious protectorate but they are in fact isolating themselve. It's going to be a nice sunny day when more people realise that the EU is a useless ultra-undemocratic bureaucratic hindrance and nothing more.

  8. #8
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    7,169

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    It's the comfortable bliss of eurocrats that is under attack. Eurocrats canlt look beyond their precious protectorate but they are in fact isolating themselve. It's going to be a nice sunny day when more people realise that the EU is a useless ultra-undemocratic bureaucratic hindrance and nothing more.
    Most of the uselessness and bureaucratic hindrance is due to the democratic checks. That you lump all these things together shows just how devoid of logic you are on this subject. Still, Gibraltar would be a small price to pay for freedom, in your opinion.

  9. #9
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Latibulm mali regis in muris.
    Posts
    10,938

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Financial infrastructure matters, but it is more a question of electronics and computer security than of vaults and transportation hubs. London is the lead by legacy and the comfort of familiarity -- but I don't doubt the ability of Luzerne, Berlin or The Hague to step up.


    UK needs to negotiate an exit deal that -- as closely as possible -- allows them to mimic EEC-style membership without the rest of the political oversight on other planes. Be interesting to see if they can do so.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  10. #10
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    8,179
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Franconicus View Post
    I disagree with Greyblades.

    The market of GB is interesting, but the EU has a bigger market.
    And? The point is that the loss of custom from losing access to a market of rich buyers they have become accustomed to profiting off is something businesses absolutely do not want. Playing who has the bigger market doesnt change that.
    And yes, business wants things to keep on running without any hurdles. So all regulations should be adjusted between the nations, there should be common standards, common currency, free mobility etc. Ooops, I forgot, the Brits do not want to have that any longer. So there will be an agreement without all of that.
    ...what is this drivel?
    Thinking that London is so unique that Europe depends on it can be a dangerous thought. Several EU cities are currently working to get the heritage of London. The finance market is not Britain's pledge to get access to the free market, it is the prey for those who remain in the EU.
    Those several cities will take a lot of money and a lot of time to become a replacement for London. Time is money lost and investment would be at risk of being made worthless through a deal.

    May is in a very uncomfortable situation. There is the gun at her head created by the BREXIT mandate. But there is also the issue of Ireland (cannot imagine how they will find a solution there), Scotland, Gibraltar, the finance market etc. Impossible for me to see how she could find a solution for all these problems.
    As a politician all she need care about is being reelected and the greatest portion of her electoral support comes from brexiters. She will never be reelected by them if she settles for a raw deal and she will never get enough european sympathetics to vote for her to make up the loss.

    She has three choices: all, nothing or retirement. Merkel on the other hand has much less to lose if she capitulates.

    And of course there are the expectations and needs of the Brits. From what I have read, it seems to me that they are a bit emotionally. On one hand they think that nothings really changes, the same advantages for the economy just without foreigners and without EU administration and without payment to Brussels. On the other hand, they fear that EU wants to punish them.
    Both views are unrealistic. Britain leaves the Union because it wants to make the best policy for its own people. The EU has the same mandate for the Europeans. So I expect that they are trying to get the best conditions for Europe just as the British are trying to get the best result for the UK. In the end I guess the bigger party will get the bigger piece of cake; that's how it always is. Small countries cannot compete with big ones.
    You've forgotten what nations are for and are deluded about what the EU does.

    You sound like Verhofstadt.

    By the way, do you remember that the Switzerland had a mandate to limit the free mobility of EU citizens in Switzerland?
    I remember, I also remember what you did to greece. We're not greece.

    The EU has become a thug.

    Britain doesnt bow to thugs.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 04-03-2017 at 21:37.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  11. #11
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Ukraine
    Posts
    3,792

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    It's going to be a nice sunny day when more people realise that the EU is a useless ultra-undemocratic bureaucratic hindrance and nothing more.
    Then people in GB are never gonna realise it since there are no sunny days in Britain.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

    Member thankful for this post:

    Husar 


  12. #12
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2000
    Location
    Exeter, England
    Posts
    6,438

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    I remember, I also remember what you did to greece. We're not greece.

    The EU has become a thug.

    Britain doesnt bow to thugs.
    What *he* did to Greece?

    This is strident sounding nonsense. Bluster and stupidity. Sounds like the kind of drivel that May has been coming out with.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

    Member thankful for this post:



  13. #13
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Novi Sad, Serbia
    Posts
    4,306

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    The real practical threat is that, after an agreement has been made with the EU delegates, when it comes to ratifying the agreement, Spain will say No. And despite PFH's criticisms of the EU lacking democratic accountability, the EU as a body is subject to numerous vetoes, one for each member state. As Canada has found out, if one member says No, the EU as a body says No. And the default persists until an agreement is reached. In the face of this, the UK can't exactly threaten war, and it has far too little leverage for economic war.
    I wouldn't compare the two situations, although legally you're right. Spain could veto any deal if it doesn't include Gibraltar. But, unlike Canada and Belgium example, this has nothing to do with EU. It's an issue between Spain and UK and should be dealt with bilaterally.

    I don't think other EU members would be too pleased if Spain tried to abuse EU for its own goals.

  14. #14
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    8,179
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Franconicus View Post
    I am not very familiar with the people living at Gibraltar. However, what I heard is that most of them voted against the BREXIT and are afraid of it. I assume all they want is to live at Gibraltar and have good relations to the UK and Spain. Caused by the BREXIT, there will be a frontier to Spain. I doubt that the Gibraltarians really want to be defended in a war UK against Spain. Neither do they want to move to the UK (or they would have done already). Gibraltar is one of the losers of the BREXIT.
    Gibraltar was given the opportunity to become spanish a decade ago and 99% said they wanted to be british. Unlike the tantrum class of university students and guardian collumn writers I do not for a second believe the gibraltans would forsake their country over brexit.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 04-03-2017 at 16:31.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  15. #15
    Humanist Senior Member Franconicus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Trying to get to Utopia
    Posts
    3,482

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Gibraltar was given the opportunity to become spanish a decade ago and 99% said they wanted to be british. Unlike the tantrum class of university students and guardian collumn writers I do not for a second believe the gibraltans would forsake their country over brexit.
    That was in 2002, right?
    In 2016, over 90 % wanted to stay in the EU.

  16. #16
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Helsinki,Finland
    Posts
    9,546

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    I think this whole Gibraltar issue is just the first negotiation move from EU side. They wanted to see British reaction to a provocation and they got an emotional response, which i think they were hoping for.

    Based on this, the reaction to EU's support for possibly independent Scotland staying in EU after breaking off from Britain, should be devastating. It is just a shame that European politics are turning like this once again. I would rather that the democratic West would just get along.
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

    Member thankful for this post:

    Husar 


  17. #17
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Isca
    Posts
    13,152

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    They can just move to the UK before Spain takes over. There's no need to abandon them.
    No, not really.

    Quote Originally Posted by Franconicus View Post
    I am not very familiar with the people living at Gibraltar. However, what I heard is that most of them voted against the BREXIT and are afraid of it. I assume all they want is to live at Gibraltar and have good relations to the UK and Spain. Caused by the BREXIT, there will be a frontier to Spain. I doubt that the Gibraltarians really want to be defended in a war UK against Spain. Neither do they want to move to the UK (or they would have done already). Gibraltar is one of the losers of the BREXIT.
    The Gibraltarians are British, but they not English, or Scottish, or Welsh, or Irish. There is, in fact, already a frontier with Spain - one the Spanish choked off a few years ago.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24954881

    Yes, the Gibraltarians wanted to remain in the EU, but more than that they emphatically want to be British.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    I think this whole Gibraltar issue is just the first negotiation move from EU side. They wanted to see British reaction to a provocation and they got an emotional response, which i think they were hoping for.

    Based on this, the reaction to EU's support for possibly independent Scotland staying in EU after breaking off from Britain, should be devastating. It is just a shame that European politics are turning like this once again. I would rather that the democratic West would just get along.
    If you expect support for an Independent Scotland joining the EU to provoke a more violent reaction than the issue of Gibraltar you have sadly missed the point. If the Scots wish to leave, let them leave - if they wish to join the EU let them.

    This is about the right of our people to choose - not about what they choose.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."


  18. #18
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Latibulm mali regis in muris.
    Posts
    10,938

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    I would vote that we close this thread and move efforts to the exit thread.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  19. #19
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    8,179
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Interesting idea, I would say that if true it is going to backfire; the biggest wet blanket on the idea of scottish retaining the EU is the veto of spain, if anything showing how easily and even frivelously spain is willing to use that veto will more likely discourage the idea that spain can be bargained with.
    Quote Originally Posted by Franconicus View Post
    That was in 2002, right?
    In 2016, over 90 % wanted to stay in the EU.
    Doesnt translate. Posessing a desire for EU membership does not require a desire for seperatism let alone repatriation.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 04-03-2017 at 21:01.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  20. #20
    Shadow Senior Member Kagemusha's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Helsinki,Finland
    Posts
    9,546

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Interesting idea, I would say that if true it is going to backfire; the biggest wet blanket on the idea of scottish retaining the EU is the veto of spain, if anything showing how easily and even frivelously spain is willing to use that veto will more likely discourage the idea that spain can be bargained with.

    Doesnt translate. Posessing a desire for EU membership does not require a desire for seperatism let alone repatriation.
    Apparently Spain has already commented, that while they do not want to see the disintegration of GB, they would not veto independent Scotland's application to EU.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662531.html
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

  21. #21
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    7,169

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Apparently Spain has already commented, that while they do not want to see the disintegration of GB, they would not veto independent Scotland's application to EU.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662531.html
    Aka an independent Gibraltar may apply for EU membership. The EU can screw the UK over in any number of ways within international norms.

  22. #22
    Horse Archer Senior Member Sarmatian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Novi Sad, Serbia
    Posts
    4,306

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Kagemusha View Post
    Apparently Spain has already commented, that while they do not want to see the disintegration of GB, they would not veto independent Scotland's application to EU.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7662531.html
    Spain only has issues with Scotland getting EU membership automatically, worrying that it might encourage some of its own separatist movements.

    Spain never said it would block Scotland from EU, only that Scotland would have to apply for membership upon independence, like all other non EU countries.

  23. #23
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Latibulm mali regis in muris.
    Posts
    10,938

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Brenus View Post
    That will be suicidal. NATO would have the obligation to nuke UK.
    And France being part of NATO and a Nuclear Weapons owner would be obliged to use them against UK, so at the end having 2 neighbours transformed in ashes, radioactives ones..
    Even if Spain had invaded and attempted to annex Gibraltar, prior to any military action by the UK?
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  24. #24
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Forever adrift
    Posts
    5,510

    Default Re: UK referendum: Out

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    The UK is not threatening war - the UK is merely making it clear that it will not compromise on Gibraltar and sell its people out, even in the face of military action. It shouldn't need to be said, it should be taken as read, but better to say it now than in 18 months time.
    agreed.

    many feel the falklands conflict was at its heart a failure of communication; in that our gov't by both military commitment/capability and diplomatic prevarication lead Argentina to [believe] that taking the falklands was a gamble it could win.

    they could not win that gamble, as history proved, but the failure was ours in letting them believe in that foolish possibility.

    let there be no such miscommunication in future, eh. ;)
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

    Member thankful for this post:



  25. #25
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    I live on the org, feeding off of what few thanks are tossed at my posts. It is up to you to make sure I don't starve.
    Posts
    8,403
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    How much of capitalism as we currently conceive, depends on assumptions currently proving to be false?

    It is difficult in my opinion to hold too much faith in the status quo of mixed economies based on three factors:
    1. The inability of wall street to learn from its mistakes. Much as governments have grown in their ability to annihilate each other, our economic institutions also have the ability to destabilize the entire world based on bad practices in one sector. 2008 housing crisis is nothing compared to a theoretical slow down of the Chinese market from 6-7% to 2-3%. With the recent repeal of most of Dodd Frank, it seems old practices are still in demand.

    2. Related to point one, the ability of governments to regulate bad behavior in free markets seems more limited as both the complexity and the resistance of the economic institutions grow. Again, see the failure of Dodd frank to last beyond one administration.

    3. Developed nations are continuing a trend of downward population growth. Several states are in the negative, many more are strateling the line, propped up barely by immigration. What does this say about how we view the metric of growth when we also recognize the impossibility of several billion people living 1st world standards and encourage developing nations to adhere to the above trend?

    Related to point three, the only way out of this conflict seems to be faith that while we live in a limited resource environment, productivity per person is boundless (doubtful). If this was magically the case, we are still on the wrong path since we have seen a decoupling of productivity and real income since the 1970s.

    Do we need a new paradigm beyond free markets for the mid 21st century?
    Last edited by a completely inoffensive name; 07-05-2018 at 01:54.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  26. #26

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    How much of capitalism as we currently conceive, depends on assumptions currently proving to be false?

    It is difficult in my opinion to hold too much faith in the status quo of mixed economies based on three factors:
    1. The inability of wall street to learn from its mistakes. Much as governments have grown in their ability to annihilate each other, our economic institutions also have the ability to destabilize the entire world based on bad practices in one sector. 2008 housing crisis is nothing compared to a theoretical slow down of the Chinese market from 6-7% to 2-3%. With the recent repeal of most of Dodd Frank, it seems old practices are still in demand.

    2. Related to point one, the ability of governments to regulate bad behavior in free markets seems more limited as both the complexity and the resistance of the economic institutions grow. Again, see the failure of Dodd frank to last beyond one administration.

    3. Developed nations are continuing a trend of downward population growth. Several states are in the negative, many more are strateling the line, propped up barely by immigration. What does this say about how we view the metric of growth when we also recognize the impossibility of several billion people living 1st world standards and encourage developing nations to adhere to the above trend?

    Related to point three, the only way out of this conflict seems to be faith that while we live in a limited resource environment, productivity per person is boundless (doubtful). If this was magically the case, we are still on the wrong path since we have seen a decoupling of productivity and real income since the 1970s.

    Do we need a new paradigm beyond free markets for the mid 21st century?
    Mistake: our markets are not "free". We have state-subsidized, government-mandated markets.

    1. De-marketize society.

    So we need something other than commercial relations as a basis for society. In pre-modern times, it was pure subsistence, religion, violence, and autocratic whim. The 20th century saw attempts at world-historical projects that were too destructive for our prospect.

    2. The only future for humanity that isn't a horror-show or outright AI posthumanity (far likelier biological than computational) is a subsistence economy, but with luxurious subsistence as a minimum standard, on the basis of a shared core value in mutual altruism.

    Housing, food, healthcare, education, etc. The primary goal of politics becomes assuring the provision of the minimum standard, and expanding it continuously.

    3. Automate as much as possible, but leave technological development, especially in biotech like genetic engineering, heavily restricted according to ethical standards like the precautionary principle.

    All utopian ideologies depend on shared humanity. Allowing the advent of categorical cleavage in beings not only wrecks that, it obviates 5,000 years of history and philosophy utterly and forever. Everything we have ever done as a species becomes a sick joke.

    4. Probably do something about population... There exists a gap between population growth and desired childmaking outcomes, which suggests widespread prosperous subsistence would lead to a baby boom.

    ????

    5. Collectivize childrearing.

    5. Everyone has the moral agency to choose their own way of life.

    5. Can't we just be pessimists and fatalists? I want to watch my vitreous jelly sucked out by a cyberpunk abomination.
    Vitiate Man.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

  27. #27
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    I live on the org, feeding off of what few thanks are tossed at my posts. It is up to you to make sure I don't starve.
    Posts
    8,403
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    I am not sure of the direction you are taking. But I don't necessarily see anything so drastic.

    Personally, I think that we need to go back to the philosophy of Locke and other's who built the groundwork of private property and revisit it in the context of today's state. We should strive more towards the idea that the property belongs to those who put effort or improve upon the land.

    What sort of society do we have if we view our relationship through the lens of conditional ownership based around utilization of the land?
    Most of society can move on as it is currently because for the most part companies utilize land for the purpose of generating value.

    I find there to be something wrong about the inability of cities to clamp down on ghost apartments used by the wealthy overseas to dump money which only serve to remove supply and drive up prices with no value added.
    Or how cities must go through a lengthy process just to buy out land that is sitting unused by a stubborn owner that could be used for public transit or a revitalization process.
    This isn't to say I want a society where the government owns all of the land and simply hands it out by its corruptible criteria of merit. But the government should have a more active role in remediating rent seeking activities and rewarding those who put forth plans to provide actual value.

    And perhaps when it is all said and done a free-ish market like what we have today is the best way to generate wealth. But if that is the case then we are in trouble because more and more the perception of the average citizen like me is that 21st C capitalism is an exercise in manipulating supply and applying magical formulas to optimize self destructive bets and counter bets on each others businesses in order to generate wealth.

    EDIT: In my dream society, California would have passed SB827 years ago. We know we need more housing, the land is being mismanaged by local politicians held hostage by NIMBYs. This is clear case of what the people need, and the deference to the local communities has gone beyond the pale.
    Last edited by a completely inoffensive name; 07-05-2018 at 07:27.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  28. #28
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    I live on the org, feeding off of what few thanks are tossed at my posts. It is up to you to make sure I don't starve.
    Posts
    8,403
    Blog Entries
    2

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Follow up about the cities buying out land. I understand there is a process of eminent domain for certain public projects, but I am more frustrated over situations like this.
    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/l...htmlstory.html

    Key point:
    "One way way out of the impasse could arise from Kleinman’s own disengagement.
    Los Angeles County Treasurer and Tax Collector records show that 2015-16 property taxes on his properties are in default and the first installment on this year’s taxes of $18,251.84 has not been paid. If the default is not cleared by July 1, 2019, the tax collector would initiate a process to sell the properties within four years."

    So if he wasn't in default, that land would remain a patch work of abandoned, decrepit buildings for homeless people until death? Also, why does it take 3 years to clear a default payment and then another 4 to sell off the property? A child could go through middle and high school before a shovel even touches the ground.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  29. #29
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    15,617

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    We should strive more towards the idea that the property belongs to those who put effort or improve upon the land.
    In capitalism, these people are the capitalists. And the more we progress, the more everything depends on them and their capital.

    We might also want to be careful not to get too far away from the Brexit discussion here. Perhaps a mod could open a new topic about the end state of capitalism?

    As for the Free Market, if you think it rules supreme, let's take the following example:

    You're the consumer, who makes an informed decision to buy a shampoo, as the free market principles dictate:
    Shampoo A: http://mostlysunnyblog.com/wp-conten...ngredients.jpg
    Shampoo B: https://i.stack.imgur.com/tWJ66.jpg

    Now answer the following questions in a detailed way:
    - Which shampoo is better for your skin and why?
    - Which shampoo is less harmful to the environment and why?
    - What criteria do you apply when you buy Shampoo?
    - Why do you have these criteria and how exactly do they maximize your welfare?
    - How do you know that your decision was best and benefits the market, and in extension everyone?

    I mean, obviously all this should be easy to explain since the market always makes the best product win through the customer choice, no?


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

    Member thankful for this post:



  30. #30

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    First, let me say I positively squint at the use of eminent domain for the interests of private developers. If there's a housing crisis (which there is, buddy, real estate interests in Albany), then have the city or the state fund, or preferably build, co-living apartments (less trendily known as communal apartments).

    I don't see what the special focus on residential land usage is, or how its reform alone contributes to an ideal society. It seems like something that follows from the parameters of the larger frame. Right now, that is rewarding mass speculation (financial rent) and luxury, high-rise, and McMansion development. Why do NIMBYs exist? Is it because they are rich and crotchety? Upper middle-class and anxious about property values? (Only activists have cared much about the concerns of lower-class NIMBYs.) If you don't have to worry about wealth or property values or basic survival, then these concerns can be dminished.

    You can only fruitfully speculate on the new shape of these things once you know how the systemic parameters determine where, how, and why people live or go to live, work, and operate in the first place. Right now, almost all movement between locales is for retirement or in pursuit of economic opportunities, largely toward legacy urban centers that arose for all the reasons towns and cities arose. A degree of re-ruralization with infrastructure is one possibility.

    A market like we have today is unsustainable, as you should be aware. Markets are indeed highly efficient - at concentrating wealth and power. Our essential and recurring problem is such concentrations of wealth and power. If you don't endeavour to flatten society of wealth and power, you accept that these crises will recur cyclically until such time as humans are replaced as labor capital, civilization is disintegrated technologically or ecologically, or most human energy is bent toward colonizing other worlds.

    Unfortunately, we also need to retain enough of our consumption to keep "living standards" high, or reform becomes politically untenable. Therefore, one of the biggest challenges:

    1. Match modern living standards and consumption with ecological sustainability*
    2. Modern life depends on the extractive industries, which depend on the extreme poverty and suffering of many millions of laborers - eliminate this exploitation, or equality is a lie.


    *This isn't to say that we need to preserve this saturated wonderland of conveniences and goodies, which did not exist before the 1990s. The problem is more soluble if you take "modern" as anything post-war, though transport and communication capabilities can't be allowed to degrade.
    Vitiate Man.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO