EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Furunculus]

Not signalling from the UK, it is not in our gift to provide. No, by the EU.

Too much drama about no deal, let's face it the Eurozone lives with 10%unemployment and verges on a technical recession. Oh what a model to worship.

[Pannonian]

Analysts predict that in the event of no deal, sterling could fall by over 20%. Is this such a bad thing?

In other news, representatives of the food industry have urged cessation of discussions with the government on matters not related to Brexit, as their resources are already stretched dealing with the latter. "Businesses throughout the UK food chain - and their trade associations - are now totally focused on working to mitigate the catastrophic impact of a no-deal Brexit".

The letter comes just two weeks after major retailers warned MPs that a no-deal Brexit would cause huge disruption to the industry, leading to higher prices and empty shelves in the short-term.

Sainsbury's, Asda and McDonald's were among those who warned stockpiling fresh food was impossible, and that the UK was very reliant on the EU for produce.

[Pannonian]

Remember I talked about truck drivers and permits? Over 11k permits have been applied for, but fewer than 1k have been issued so far. Another 2.5k have been promised in time for Brexit, but the Haulliers Association say that's still 10% of what's needed. The food retailers probably had this in mind when they warned of higher prices and empty shelves. Still, food shortages are worth it in order not to be subject to the nefarious ECJ, which has ruled in favour of the UK in 95% of claims.

[Furunculus]

trucks and planes will still move:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...ort-agreement/

[Pannonian]

trucks and planes will still move:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...ort-agreement/

Lucky you didn't post that in the reddit football forums. They've banned the Sun as a source there.

[Husar]

Wow, secret deals and reports, I've got some more:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...rse-EU-UK.html

No deal Brexit 'would be worse for the EU than Britain because red tape would slow down efforts to respond quickly, Brussels believes'

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...order-backstop

EU PLOT: Secret Brussels plan to 'CONTROL' Britain after Brexit REVEALED

That secret deal of the Sun seems really new: https://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shak...t-brexit-deal/

5 NOVEMBER 2018
UK and EU deny reaching a “secret Brexit deal”

The conspiracy is even worse though:


No, seriously, I'll believe it when it comes from something other than a neoliberal propaganda rag.

[Pannonian]

Wow, secret deals and reports, I've got some more:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...rse-EU-UK.html


https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/10...order-backstop


That secret deal of the Sun seems really new: https://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shak...t-brexit-deal/


The conspiracy is even worse though:

No, seriously, I'll believe it when it comes from something other than a neoliberal propaganda rag.

The Sun isn't banned on football forums because it's neoliberal. It's banned because it lies as a matter of course. The Mail doesn't have a good reputation either. The Express is notorious for its Diana-fixation and lack of trustworthiness on everything else that might be termed news. I'd be looking at the broadsheets for a good source. Preferably Financial Times, although the Times or Guardian will do.

[Pannonian]

Husar, I'm not going to check out the Sun story, so if you've read it, perhaps you can summarise it. However, from the headline, the closest I can find from reputable sources is the plan to waive checks on goods coming from the EU, which has been reported on numerous media including all the broadsheets, and one of the heads of the Haulliers Association, who handle the logistics taking goods into and from Britain, saying that the suggested 3.5k permits is only 10% of what is needed. If Furunculus's story from the Sun supersedes this, I'd like to know what their source is. The plan I cited above isn't secret and can be enacted unilaterally, although it isn't practical and is blatantly open to abuse, while the second is traceable to a named source who is an expert on the subject in practice. Furunculus's stories tend to come from theorists with little understanding of how things work. The better stories of his anyway.

[Montmorency]

No, seriously, I'll believe it when it comes from something other than a neoliberal propaganda rag.

Whence "neoliberal"? I could at least see where you're coming from if it were the Economist, but the Sun is but a standard tabloid.

Husar, I'm not going to check out the Sun story, so if you've read it, perhaps you can summarise it. However, from the headline, the closest I can find from reputable sources is the plan to waive checks on goods coming from the EU, which has been reported on numerous media including all the broadsheets, and one of the heads of the Haulliers Association, who handle the logistics taking goods into and from Britain, saying that the suggested 3.5k permits is only 10% of what is needed. If Furunculus's story from the Sun supersedes this, I'd like to know what their source is. The plan I cited above isn't secret and can be enacted unilaterally, although it isn't practical and is blatantly open to abuse, while the second is traceable to a named source who is an expert on the subject in practice. Furunculus's stories tend to come from theorists with little understanding of how things work. The better stories of his anyway.

It's vituperation (a notch harsher than Pann-tone) against "Project Fear" but no sources, only links to older Sun articles. With a Google search I guess it must be prompted by something related to this EU press release dated Feb. 15:

Basic road connectivity in the event of no-deal Brexit – Council agrees its position

The EU is introducing a set of temporary and limited measures to ensure basic road freight and road passenger connectivity in order to mitigate the most severe disruption in the event that the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated agreement. Today, member states' ambassadors in the Council's Permanent Representatives Committee approved a mandate for the Romanian presidency to negotiate with the European Parliament on enabling UK-licenced road hauliers and coach and bus operators to carry goods and passengers between the UK and the remaining 27 member states. The rights granted by these measures will be conditional on equivalent rights being conferred by the UK to operators from the 27 member states and subject to conditions ensuring fair competition.

The temporary measures are without prejudice to any future negotiations with the UK.

The regulation will cease to apply on 31 December 2019.

A meeting with the Parliament to agree on the final text will take place on 18 February.

Background
According to the overall principles for non-deal Brexit contingency measures, all such measures consist of unilateral EU-level action, on the assumption that the UK will reciprocate. The measures are exceptional in nature and strictly time-limited. The transport connectivity measures are not intended to replicate the status quo under EU law, but rather to preserve basic connectivity between the EU and the UK.

[Furunculus]

See what can be achieved when you remove the blinkers and cease trying to play the man.

[Pannonian]

See what can be achieved when you remove the blinkers and cease trying to play the man.

Blinkers? I, like many English football fans, absolutely refuse to click on any Sun link, assuming as a matter of course that said rag will be lying. If you have a story to push, use another source.

[Furunculus]

I think it is a junk rag to, but what twitter turned up was:
Interesting, &
informative, &
accurate

Quite frankly nothing else matters.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think it is a junk rag to, but what twitter turned up was:
Interesting, &
informative, &
accurate

Quite frankly nothing else matters.

So, you're suggesting that even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while?

[Husar]

The Sun isn't banned on football forums because it's neoliberal. It's banned because it lies as a matter of course. The Mail doesn't have a good reputation either. The Express is notorious for its Diana-fixation and lack of trustworthiness on everything else that might be termed news. I'd be looking at the broadsheets for a good source. Preferably Financial Times, although the Times or Guardian will do.

I specifically linked to untrustworthy ones as they all posted these crazy conspiracy bullhorn (it's a family forum...) stories.
The Financial Times is obviously a neoliberal capitalist rag and the Gruniad is a leftist biased newspaper that Furunculus would never take seriously. If I really wanted to convince him, I'd link to https://www.wsws.org for example.

Whence "neoliberal"? I could at least see where you're coming from if it were the Economist, but the Sun is but a standard tabloid.

It's owned by Rupert Murdoch and he wants to rule the world. Isn't that enough?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Sun isn't banned on football forums because it's neoliberal. It's banned because it lies as a matter of course. The Mail doesn't have a good reputation either. The Express is notorious for its Diana-fixation and lack of trustworthiness on everything else that might be termed news. I'd be looking at the broadsheets for a good source. Preferably Financial Times, although the Times or Guardian will do.

The Torygraph is just as reliable as the Gruniard.

I've apparently been dragged back in.

So here's my prediction, if we have a "no deal" Brexit the following will happen:

Nothing, absolutely nothing.

After all, there's no infrastructure to enforce a border and no present impetus from the UK to change any of our rules regarding agriculture, product safety, etc.

The EU may wish to impose Tariffs, that will probably take at least a month, but if it does so it will be at the EU's impetus, making them the "bad guys" and I understand, to add insult to injury, they have considered erecting the border in Mainland Europe and excluding Ireland for safety's sake.

If that's even seriously mooted it will cause serious, lasting, damage to the EU.

As regards to what I objected to - I object to Donald Tusk invoking the language of divine punishment which is usually reserved for mass-murders and child molesters.

[Furunculus]

I specifically linked to untrustworthy ones as they all posted these crazy conspiracy bullhorn (it's a family forum...) stories.
The Financial Times is obviously a neoliberal capitalist rag and the Gruniad is a leftist biased newspaper that Furunculus would never take seriously. If I really wanted to convince him, I'd link to https://www.wsws.org for example.



It's owned by Rupert Murdoch and he wants to rule the world. Isn't that enough?

The Grauniad is [the] paper I read before all others.
Read daily.

[edyzmedieval]

While everyone is trying to negotiate, let's not forget a no-deal can still happen. And when that happens...

[Pannonian]

The Torygraph is just as reliable as the Gruniard.

I've apparently been dragged back in.

So here's my prediction, if we have a "no deal" Brexit the following will happen:

Nothing, absolutely nothing.

After all, there's no infrastructure to enforce a border and no present impetus from the UK to change any of our rules regarding agriculture, product safety, etc.

The EU may wish to impose Tariffs, that will probably take at least a month, but if it does so it will be at the EU's impetus, making them the "bad guys" and I understand, to add insult to injury, they have considered erecting the border in Mainland Europe and excluding Ireland for safety's sake.

If that's even seriously mooted it will cause serious, lasting, damage to the EU.

As regards to what I objected to - I object to Donald Tusk invoking the language of divine punishment which is usually reserved for mass-murders and child molesters.

Can you explain how this works? IIRC the Maltese commissioner, whom I would have thought to be closer to us than some other EU countries, called for us to be made to suffer. It's the Germans in particular who've been toning down the language. Strictly enforcing the WTO rules and making us squirm would be rather popular in most parts of Europe.

Oh, and you might want to check out Mark Francois (Conservative MP) if you want inflammatory language, repeatedly. Or our defence secretary, for that matter, who's managed to screw up relations with China and Japan in the space of two weeks. Tusk? He was aiming at our politicians. Not so much our Brexiter MPs, who've been threatening whole countries. There's an entire faction who've been calling for unilateral tearing up of bilateral/multilateral treaties; the kind of stuff I've only read about in history books.

[Husar]

The Grauniad is [the] paper I read before all others.
Read daily.

Are you sure? Or do you just read it to dismiss everything in there?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-in-the-making
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...it-environment
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...er-madness-war
https://www.theguardian.com/business...mic-data-uk-eu

These are just from a quick headline search, I don't remember any Guardian articles that were particularly happy about Brexit or saying it would all be just fine.

[Pannonian]

In other news, Honda have announced the closure of the plant in Swindon (54.7% leave, 10k majority), with the loss of 3.5k jobs. Union reps explain that the usual formula is 3 related jobs to each one, so that's around 14k point and supply chain jobs lost, plus knock on effects on local prosperity. FT points to the loss of the JIT supply chain, with stockpiling components for 9 days requiring one of the largest buildings in the world.

Oh, and one of the richest men in the UK (well, he was in the UK), a Brexit supporter, has left the UK to live in a tax haven. Did I mention that Dyson, one of the most prominent businessmen supporting Leave, has disowned his company as "British"?

[edyzmedieval]

Regardless of what newspaper you read, we can agree on the fact that Brexit will be an economic problem. Leave the Irish backstops for a moment, think of the initial supply chain disruption that will happen in the first 6 months. Adding to that, if a no-backstop deal is done, then it will raise the problem of enforcing goods at the Irish border... and we all know what the Irish border means.

This is in no way shape or form a positive outcome for anyone. Brexit is going to be a huge mess, it already is in fact.

[Pannonian]

Regardless of what newspaper you read, we can agree on the fact that Brexit will be an economic problem. Leave the Irish backstops for a moment, think of the initial supply chain disruption that will happen in the first 6 months. Adding to that, if a no-backstop deal is done, then it will raise the problem of enforcing goods at the Irish border... and we all know what the Irish border means.

This is in no way shape or form a positive outcome for anyone. Brexit is going to be a huge mess, it already is in fact.

Brexiters already have a back up plan. Plan A is to threaten the EU and say that "they need us more than we need them", that damaging us would take the EU with us. Fall back plan should we exit with no deal is to blame the EU. You can see it in PFH's post where he says that enforcing WTO rules will cause serious, lasting damage to the EU, and that doing so will make them the bad guys. There are no plans for making it work. The only plans are to threaten or blame the EU.

Liam Fox (trade secretary) has said that we will open up the borders, in effect requiring no tariffs to be paid. This will kill the agricultural industry, as produce with no tariffs or standards will be able to enter Britain while our farmers' own produce will have tariffs imposed should they want to sell abroad. Michael Gove (environment and food minister) has said that tariffs will be imposed on foreign produce. Two mutually contradicting positions on a fundamental issue with a month and a bit to go before no deal exit. Will Leavers accept responsibility for the results of Brexit? Or will they once more blame the EU?

[Pannonian]

Read why the pro-EU argument that we'll lose job creators when we #LeaveEU can be turfed out

Not sure this tweet has aged very well!

NB. Leave.eu and its backer Aaron Banks were fined for breaking electoral laws during the referendum campaign.

[Furunculus]

Are you sure? Or do you just read it to dismiss everything in there?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-in-the-making
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...it-environment
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...er-madness-war
https://www.theguardian.com/business...mic-data-uk-eu

These are just from a quick headline search, I don't remember any Guardian articles that were particularly happy about Brexit or saying it would all be just fine.

I need to let you in on a little secret. Two in fact:

1) life is complicated, and people who try to boil it down to manichean simplicity of good and evil lack the mental tools to assess the world.
A bit like sticking fingers in your ears and screaming "neoliberalism!" whenever uncomfortable opinions Hove into view.
2) There is a vital distinction between news and editorial. One is fact, the other opinion, and the grauniad is a fine newspaper with batpoop crazy opinion writers.
fox news has lost the ability to distinguish between news and editorial, as have the identity politics left who ignore facts when presented by a hated messenger.

I hope this proves a valuable response for you.

[Husar]

1) life is complicated, and people who try to boil it down to manichean simplicity of good and evil lack the mental tools to assess the world.
A bit like sticking fingers in your ears and screaming "neoliberalism!" whenever uncomfortable opinions Hove into view.

Oh, you mean like people who constantly harp on about how someone else uses the word "neoliberalism" too often without even understanding why they do that or that they're being triggered on purpose? Yeah, I think you exemplified your point very well!

2) There is a vital distinction between news and editorial. One is fact, the other opinion, and the grauniad is a fine newspaper with batpoop crazy opinion writers.
fox news has lost the ability to distinguish between news and editorial, as have the identity politics left who ignore facts when presented by a hated messenger.

I hope this proves a valuable response for you.

Yes and no, I thought you might say that, but news aren't fact per se, sometimes rumors are reported as news or the style of reporting is biased. Not to say this is the case for the Gruniad though. I'm happy that you're happy with the Gruniad as a news source.

[Beskar]

NB. Leave.eu and its backer Aaron Banks were fined for breaking electoral laws during the referendum campaign.

I saw that, but I forgot to post it over on here.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...
2) There is a vital distinction between news and editorial. One is fact, the other opinion, and the grauniad is a fine newspaper with batpoop crazy opinion writers.
fox news has lost the ability to distinguish between news and editorial, as have the identity politics left who ignore facts when presented by a hated messenger....

Sadly, pretty much all of our broadcast news on this side of the pond -- aside from some of the business-specialty programs -- have blurred that distinction to a fair-the-well. When I want news with the opinions kept to the editorial section, I listen to BBC.


And FOX has NOT lost the ability to distinguish between news and editorial. It never had it in the first place. It was formed to be as distorted as its "mainstream" competitors but with a 'reverse-of-the-coin' slant.

[Pannonian]

Sadly, pretty much all of our broadcast news on this side of the pond -- aside from some of the business-specialty programs -- have blurred that distinction to a fair-the-well. When I want news with the opinions kept to the editorial section, I listen to BBC.


And FOX has NOT lost the ability to distinguish between news and editorial. It never had it in the first place. It was formed to be as distorted as its "mainstream" competitors but with a 'reverse-of-the-coin' slant.

There are complaints about the BBC having to be balanced in its coverage, where covering both sides is more important than actually reporting facts. Scientists have given up appearing on their discussion programmes, as the BBC balances their coverage by giving wingnut extremists the same weight as academics with decades of experience in specialist fields. I've talked before about us currently having the worst aspects of liberal democracy, with the Brexit debate showcasing them in all their glory. Rather than liberalism giving us rights rooted in western philosophy and democracy guarding us against tyranny by the few, we have liberalism giving us rights that we take for granted, and democracy giving parrots the same weight as informed opinion.

There is some pushing back though. Some in the BBC are now arguing that truth and accuracy is more important than balance, that proven lies should not be given the same weight or airing as proven truth.

[Montmorency]

There are complaints about the BBC having to be balanced in its coverage, where covering both sides is more important than actually reporting facts. Scientists have given up appearing on their discussion programmes, as the BBC balances their coverage by giving wingnut extremists the same weight as academics with decades of experience in specialist fields.

Our cable news and broadcasters do the same (without even touching on print media). This is because they have the mission of reaching a broad audience, making entertainment and profitability the priorities - even in the case of the technically non-commercial NPR. Contra Seamus, this contributes to a pervasive conservative slant by default. FOX is sui generis because it was designed from the outset with an ideological agenda rather than a strictly commercial one (which is just the 'submerged' ideology of capitalism).

Returning to Brexit, the EU has released a couple of statements regarding temporary arrangements for road and air traffic in the case of No Deal. How do these affect the outlook?

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/p...-its-position/
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/p...he-parliament/

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Dang. I missed the truth again. Some days I wonder how I manage to get from A to B.