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Thread: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

  1. #3361
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I believe Pannonian is intimating that thinktank publications are valueless because the organization generating the white paper in question has an agenda and will therefore present only skewed or untrustworthy data in service of that agenda and not honest analysis.

    To be fair, this certainly does occur -- scientific studies generated by research funded by Big Tobacco were notorious for promoting doubt about the deleterious effects of smoking.

    However, it should also be noted that the analysts developing these white papers in think tank organizations do have a professional reputation to maintain. Presenting results that are clearly unsupported by the data will eventually mar that reputation, so there is also a pull towards honest reportage.

    Like anything else, the reader must be a thoughtful consumer of the information promulgated.
    When there is a 90-10 split among qualified experts on what sets of data to look at and what they mean and so on, the thinktanks that Furunculus rely on are part of the 10 while I tend towards the 90. For instance, the economist he relies on most of all, whose name I've forgotten but the gist of whose arguments I can remember, came up with Furunculus's genius argument of reshaping the UK's economy like Singapore's. Except that Singapore is a city, not a country, whose population is geared towards different norms than the UK's, whose economy and employment models are drastically different from the UK's. And, of course, whose government thinks Brexit is nuts. The logic of this economist leads to the disappearance of the UK's industrial and agricultural economies, which this economist says will be worth it because it will lead to openings for other areas of the economy. We've seen the disappearance of the car industry since 2016, the farmers are belatedly waking up to the logic of Brexit, but we are yet to see the benefits (see the dismissal of the 350 million per week promise and Rees-Mogg's estimation that it may be 50 years before we see things work out better).

    That's an example of the thinktank arguments that Furunculus loves posting. Handwaving all negatives because some time in the theoretical future there may come some benefits, just don't ask for evidence of these benefits nor any realistic timeframe. If you were planning any normal project, this kind of plan and research would lead you to seriously questioning the sanity of heading down this path.

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    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    This video of Boris in 2018 did not age well.
    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/po...-sea-1-9110754
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  3. #3363
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    This video of Boris in 2018 did not age well.
    https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/po...-sea-1-9110754
    Brexiteers lie as a matter of course, with Johnson being the liar in chief.

  4. #3364
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    When there is a 90-10 split among qualified experts on what sets of data to look at and what they mean and so on, the thinktanks that Furunculus rely on are part of the 10 while I tend towards the 90. For instance, the economist he relies on most of all, whose name I've forgotten but the gist of whose arguments I can remember, came up with Furunculus's genius argument of reshaping the UK's economy like Singapore's. Except that Singapore is a city, not a country, whose population is geared towards different norms than the UK's, whose economy and employment models are drastically different from the UK's. And, of course, whose government thinks Brexit is nuts. The logic of this economist leads to the disappearance of the UK's industrial and agricultural economies, which this economist says will be worth it because it will lead to openings for other areas of the economy. We've seen the disappearance of the car industry since 2016, the farmers are belatedly waking up to the logic of Brexit, but we are yet to see the benefits (see the dismissal of the 350 million per week promise and Rees-Mogg's estimation that it may be 50 years before we see things work out better).

    That's an example of the thinktank arguments that Furunculus loves posting. Handwaving all negatives because some time in the theoretical future there may come some benefits, just don't ask for evidence of these benefits nor any realistic timeframe. If you were planning any normal project, this kind of plan and research would lead you to seriously questioning the sanity of heading down this path.
    Alternative facts:
    1. since Philip put the first comment on the boris deal on the 12th I am the only one that has put forth any 'expert' analysis on the content.
    > A few of us; you, me, others, have chipped in with our [opinion] of what the deal looks like, bully for us. No analysis, apart from open europe.
    2. Openeurope is an EUskeptic think tank, yes, but it has been a remain and reform think tank for many, many years. And advocated that outcome in the referendum.
    > Have some better EU policy / geo-politics / brexit think-tanks, fine, show me some analysis. EU in a changing europe is a good one. What have you presented?
    3. Minford is not the the economist I most rely on. He is an alternative view that represents the singapore-on-thames outcome in response to no deal.
    > This of course is not what I advocate, and if I have to link back to that very same post again I'm going to be very blunt in my displeasure at the necessity.
    4. "Handwaving all negatives because some time in the theoretical future there may come some benefits, just don't ask for evidence"
    > Vs what? I find it strange that you make this complaint when you refuse to comment on the content, seeking only to rubbish the provenence, and provide [nothing] in return...

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I believe Pannonian is intimating that thinktank publications are valueless because the organization generating the white paper in question has an agenda and will therefore present only skewed or untrustworthy data in service of that agenda and not honest analysis.

    To be fair, this certainly does occur -- scientific studies generated by research funded by Big Tobacco were notorious for promoting doubt about the deleterious effects of smoking.

    However, it should also be noted that the analysts developing these white papers in think tank organizations do have a professional reputation to maintain. Presenting results that are clearly unsupported by the data will eventually mar that reputation, so there is also a pull towards honest reportage.

    Like anything else, the reader must be a thoughtful consumer of the information promulgated.
    Yeah, sure. I recognise the problem and entirely agree that everyone needs to be careful.
    But in this case, I refer you to my points above.

    here's another:
    https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-8713

    and another:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/whats-at-stake/

    ooh, and another:
    https://brexitcentral.com/why-mps-sh...johnsons-deal/
    Last edited by Furunculus; 10-19-2019 at 13:22.
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  5. #3365
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Except that Singapore is a city, not a country,
    It is both:

    Singapore, officially the Republic of Singapore, is a sovereign island city-state in Southeast Asia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  6. #3366
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    It is both:

    Singapore, officially the Republic of Singapore, is a sovereign island city-state in Southeast Asia.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore
    You know what I mean. Singapore does not support an agricultural economy as extensive as the UK's, with most of its economic assets supporting an area and population the equivalent of a city.

  7. #3367
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Lol, delayed again
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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  8. #3368
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    i watched it all from 9:30 this morning with my brother, my (polish) wife, and his (turkish) partner.

    rawesomely fun entertainment!

    looking forward to monday; letter sent but no attempt to negotiate extension, and another vote.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 10-19-2019 at 16:13.
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  9. #3369
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Was surprised by the mass Exodus of the Tories once the points of order started. It is like they are not paid to sit in those seats to represent us.
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    That was already in question with the amount of defections that have gone un-byelection-ed.

    I think lammy has defected like 4 times this term.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 10-19-2019 at 19:40.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    At this rate - either EU will not allow Brexit because Parliament has deemed no-deal illegal or they will never leave in the next year. It's impossible to request another extension since the PM said no.
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  12. #3372
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    At this rate - either EU will not allow Brexit because Parliament has deemed no-deal illegal or they will never leave in the next year. It's impossible to request another extension since the PM said no.
    The PM has sort of enacted the form but has blatantly circumvented the intent, and in the process has broken the law. If the shenanigans about the letters is true, the courts should decide what should be done with the PM. The PM is not allowed to override an Act of Parliament.

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    with zero self awareness the jolyon/grieve mob will launch a legal case on monday morning for failing to meet the terms of the benn act.

    £350m. here is a lesson: to screams of "liar" the lesson was not that it wasn't the right amount, the message received was that it was a lot!

    when the election comes, it's going to be a bloodbath* with idiots like this running against cummings.



    * politically speaking
    Last edited by Furunculus; 10-20-2019 at 08:52.
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  14. #3374
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    with zero self awareness the jolyon/grieve mob will launch a legal case on monday morning for failing to meet the terms of the benn act.

    £350m. here is a lesson: to screams of "liar" the lesson was not that it wasn't the right amount, the message received was that it was a lot!

    when the election comes, it's going to be a bloodbath* with idiots like this running against cummings.



    * politically speaking),
    Do you believe the PM should be above the law?

  15. #3375
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Do you believe the PM should be above the law?
    i believe that law should be as simple as and 'flat' as possible - much like taxes - for complexity makes it easy to create bad law that needs ever more complexity to mitigate its imperfections.
    the benn act was stupid on first principles, and stupid in its implementation; boris has complied with the law.

    my point is that boris' response is an elephant trap - and one which recent experience should give the victims enough self-awareness to avoid - but we will soon see just how ready they are to blunder into it.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 10-20-2019 at 08:51.
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  16. #3376
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    The PM has sort of enacted the form but has blatantly circumvented the intent, and in the process has broken the law. If the shenanigans about the letters is true, the courts should decide what should be done with the PM. The PM is not allowed to override an Act of Parliament.
    The problem with the Benn Act is that while it can compel the Prime Minister to "seek" an extension, it can't compel him to say he wants one or that it's a worthwhile use of everyone's time. Even if the Act had stipulated he "negotiate in good faith" it wouldn't matter because he can just say that to claim he was in favour of the extension would be a lie and therefore bad faith.

    The real issue here is that Boris Johnson won't resign and Parliament can't oust him because Jeremy Corbyn would insist on replacing him rather than Ken Clark.

    Blaming Boris is puerile when he's lost almost every vote he's held and yet Parliament won't oust him or agree to an election.
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    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Blaming Boris is puerile when he's lost almost every vote he's held and yet Parliament won't oust him or agree to an election.
    *before the extension is in place to prevent Brexit via the backdoor whilst parliament is suspended for said election.

    It is an important addition to your remark that tends to get missed.
    Last edited by Beskar; 10-21-2019 at 00:56.
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    What will be the fallout, politically, when the delaying tactics force another referendum and repudiate the leave choice of the earlier one (my current outsider's estimate of what will happen)?

    Neither Labour nor the Tories have covered themselves in glory during the process. How will the British voter react in the first election following that second referendum?
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Labour gets cannibalized and goes to third place, lib dems win a swathe of remainer areas outside of scotland, if tories manage to get brexit party on side they split the leave areas between the two, tories getting something approaching thier pre-may's fuck up predicted 2017 win with the brexit party getting a chunk of the leave labor areas, if farage doesn play ball it becomes a shitshow with both parties potentially splitting the vote so bad some areas are lost to other parties.

    Cant imagine there will be many of the defector mp's who keep thier seats, either party, and thats a good 30 plus. Considering they're the scum of the parties, IMO, we can only hope they all go.

    I want to believe that a second referendum would end with a win for leave, that the remain side will have gimped themselves with all the shit thier politicians have pulled and lose a major chunk of people who want to make sure referendums are respected or out of disgust at the blatant sabotage... but I have a deep fear that is wishful thinking.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 10-21-2019 at 04:50.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Problem here from what I see is Labour itself. A second referendum would have been a straight no show Remain win if Labour had a different leader (Corbyn is unpopular with a lot of people) and also if they backed Remain.

    However... Labour does not openly back Remain, Corbyn is pro-Leave but most of their electorate is pro-Remain. This is incredibly confusing.
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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Problem here from what I see is Labour itself. A second referendum would have been a straight no show Remain win if Labour had a different leader (Corbyn is unpopular with a lot of people) and also if they backed Remain.

    However... Labour does not openly back Remain, Corbyn is pro-Leave but most of their electorate is pro-Remain. This is incredibly confusing.
    Virtually any other leader would have put up a more effective 2016 campaign, and would easily win a GE against the current Tories. However, the left have decided that Corbyn somehow represents them in the Labour party, and they will not relinquish their control of the party for anything.

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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Problem here from what I see is Labour itself. A second referendum would have been a straight no show Remain win if Labour had a different leader (Corbyn is unpopular with a lot of people) and also if they backed Remain.

    However... Labour does not openly back Remain, Corbyn is pro-Leave but most of their electorate is pro-Remain. This is incredibly confusing.
    All issues due to the crappy FPTP system we have in the UK. Everyone forced to think "if on the offchance I'm in a seat that might be realistically contested, who do I like most / hate least?" And Corbyn is contorting to this reality.

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    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    *before the extension is in place to prevent Brexit via the backdoor whilst parliament is suspended for said election.

    It is an important addition to your remark that tends to get missed.
    A claim that has been put forward repeatedly but is biased solely on the idea that Boris is "dodgy".

    If we'd had the election when he asked for it we'd have a new Government by now. Either Boris would have a majority for his deal, or we'd have a different administration.

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Labour gets cannibalized and goes to third place, lib dems win a swathe of remainer areas outside of scotland, if tories manage to get brexit party on side they split the leave areas between the two, tories getting something approaching thier pre-may's fuck up predicted 2017 win with the brexit party getting a chunk of the leave labor areas, if farage doesn play ball it becomes a shitshow with both parties potentially splitting the vote so bad some areas are lost to other parties.

    Cant imagine there will be many of the defector mp's who keep thier seats, either party, and thats a good 30 plus. Considering they're the scum of the parties, IMO, we can only hope they all go.

    I want to believe that a second referendum would end with a win for leave, that the remain side will have gimped themselves with all the shit thier politicians have pulled and lose a major chunk of people who want to make sure referendums are respected or out of disgust at the blatant sabotage... but I have a deep fear that is wishful thinking.
    Hung Parliament.

    This fantasy that the Tories will make a pact with the Brexit Party is just that - a fantasy - because most Tories won't vote for them even in a pact. The Lib Dems will gain some seats, but not as many as you might think because they've adopted an anti-democratic "Stop Brexit" line.
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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    A claim that has been put forward repeatedly but is biased solely on the idea that Boris is "dodgy".

    If we'd had the election when he asked for it we'd have a new Government by now. Either Boris would have a majority for his deal, or we'd have a different administration.



    Hung Parliament.

    This fantasy that the Tories will make a pact with the Brexit Party is just that - a fantasy - because most Tories won't vote for them even in a pact. The Lib Dems will gain some seats, but not as many as you might think because they've adopted an anti-democratic "Stop Brexit" line.
    How would it be anti-democratic if it's in their manifesto and they enact it as per the manifesto if elected? As a comparison, when will Leavers demand that the government set out their plans for increasing the NHS budget by 350 million per week from savings made from not contributing to the EU? That was in the Leave campaign, it was stated by the director to be the decisive factor in winning the campaign, it's been restated by one of the Leave leaders to be a promise, and both the leader and the director are now in charge of the government. Shouldn't it be part of democracy to show how they plan to keep their promises? Or does the winning side get to do whatever they want, unrelated to their campaign promises, if they win?

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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Hung Parliament.

    This fantasy that the Tories will make a pact with the Brexit Party is just that - a fantasy - because most Tories won't vote for them even in a pact.
    Who are you referring to by them? The whole point of a pact is to leave areas that are ill disposed to the tories for non referendum reasons to the brexit party, who have a better chance of attracting labor converts, you dont think the tories in those areas would vote for brexit party when the conservative option is off the table? Or do you think the tories have lost the loyalty of thier voters even in safe seats?
    Last edited by Greyblades; 10-21-2019 at 18:20.
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    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    A claim that has been put forward repeatedly but is biased solely on the idea that Boris is "dodgy".
    To be fair, given his track record, it is most likely the case.
    He is ruthless enough to actually do it.

    That's not a Brexit/Remainer thing, that is just a Boris thing. Theresa May on the otherhand wouldn't do that.
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    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Who are you referring to by them? The whole point of a pact is to leave areas that are ill disposed to the tories for non referendum reasons to the brexit party, who have a better chance of attracting labor converts, you dont think the tories in those areas would vote for brexit party when the conservative option is off the table? Or do you think the tories have lost the loyalty of thier voters even in safe seats?
    To win a seat the Brexit party needs to attract basically all the Tories voters in a seat AND the Labour converts.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."


  28. #3388
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    To be fair, given his track record, it is most likely the case.
    He is ruthless enough to actually do it.

    That's not a Brexit/Remainer thing, that is just a Boris thing. Theresa May on the otherhand wouldn't do that.
    Possibly, not likely, and only if it's to his benefit. It's conceivable that if Boris LOST the election he might try to hang on after a Hung Parliament until Brexit happened "for his legacy" but there's no benefit to putting off the election./

    You think Boris can win an election after putting it off to default on Brexit? You think he's more​ likely to win then?
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."


  29. #3389
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Pannonian:

    You really should drop the 350 millions in saving thing. It was then, leading up to the referendum, somewhere between a "lie" and a "damned lie." Leavers mostly figured it was hyperbole even then and now it is water under a series of bridges for two years. You will have to cope with the fact that none of the Leavers will bother to ask, and that none of the Leaver leadership is EVER going to say "I was lying to try to influence the vote, knowing full well it was a crock of excrement. I hereby resign and leave public life." like you clearly so want them to do.

    Your lot is winning anyway, just keep up the skeer and the next ref will clear it.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  30. #3390
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post

    You really should drop the 350 millions in saving thing.

    Your lot is winning anyway, just keep up the skeer and the next ref will clear it.
    i have no trouble justifying the £350m claim, because i dont just vote tory because they spend less than labour, but also because what they choose to spend it on and how they go about doing that. the gross figure is just as interesting as the net.
    ref the nhs, you are correct, though it should be noted that the grammar of the text came in two very different forms:
    1. we 'could' spend it on the nhs. this was around 90% of the campaign exposure.
    2. we 'will' spend it on the nhs. the other 10%, but what everyone chooses to remember.

    i'm not sure they are winning, not least because i think the process has finally convinced the eu that having us back after all this is like volunteering to incubate ebola.
    we're not wanted, and i am quite convinced they want this deal passed as much as boris does.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 10-21-2019 at 20:12.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

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