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Thread: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

  1. #2041
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    All I wanted was for tomorrow to be reasonably like today. That's extremism, apparently.
    Now it's three days later and you're at Cracker Barrel. Do you want the biscuits or the cornbread with your greens? Remember to pay your check in the gift shop (enjoy the AKUS Christmas music!) on the way out.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  2. #2042
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    If you want to call yourself pragmatic, use the engineering model.

    1. Do not use drastically new solutions, unless it is thoroughly tested, first in theory, and then in practice via small scale models. If you can't provide proof of concept, assume revolutionary new solutions do not work.
    2. Use tried and tested solutions, adapted to the problem at hand. The closer a tried and tested solution is to the defined problem, the more reliably you can assume its implementation to be. If the context is completely different from that of your chosen solution, do not assume that it will work.
    3. Peer review by acknowledged experts. There will always be differing views. But if an overwhelming majority of experts on the subject hold an opinion, it is more likely than not that their received opinion is the correct one.
    4. When implementing, start with as small a scale as possible. Always leave yourself a way to reverse your actions.
    5. If evidence suggests your model is wrong, reverse your actions and return to the baseline.

    Brexit fails every one of these points, extravagantly.
    Last edited by Pannonian; 12-13-2018 at 03:32.

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    All I wanted was for tomorrow to be reasonably like today. That's extremism, apparently.
    But the world changes and successful societies meet that change by adapting appropriately.
    brexit is a policy choice, much the same as opting to be a more collective society and doing some corbyn style nationalisation while weakening the foundation of property ownership.

    And, this is me having fun with the weakness in your own position in accusing me of being the extremist while refusing to compromise.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    If you want to call yourself pragmatic, use the engineering model.

    1. Do not use drastically new solutions, unless it is thoroughly tested, first in theory, and then in practice via small scale models. If you can't provide proof of concept, assume revolutionary new solutions do not work.
    2. Use tried and tested solutions, adapted to the problem at hand. The closer a tried and tested solution is to the defined problem, the more reliably you can assume its implementation to be. If the context is completely different from that of your chosen solution, do not assume that it will work.
    3. Peer review by acknowledged experts. There will always be differing views. But if an overwhelming majority of experts on the subject hold an opinion, it is more likely than not that their received opinion is the correct one.
    4. When implementing, start with as small a scale as possible. Always leave yourself a way to reverse your actions.
    5. If evidence suggests your model is wrong, reverse your actions and return to the baseline.

    Brexit fails every one of these points, extravagantly.
    I'm an it project manager working to the agile methodology, so I recognise much of the sense inherent in the above.
    this is indeed how you develop an [existing] product, but at the same time existing products do get engineered into a corner, whereby the changing environment leaves them unfit for purpose.
    and the response may to replace the product.

    You might argue that May's new 'product' does meet these same principles, in that 8t attempts to change as little as possible:
    Common rule book for good.
    non regression on flanking policies
    keeping competition policy
    Retaining lots of programs
    Keeping a close security relationship

    Rebuilding the services relationship and the new institutional relationship are the closest elements to revolutionary change.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    But that's rubbish. Remainers had no authority over Brexit negotiations to "pull for soft Brexit".

    You don't get to arrogate labels like "reasonable" and "pragmatic" to yourself on the basis of self-identification, they have to be demonstrated.... SNIP (some stuff)
    I'll do whatever I damn well please. :)
    Especially when I am having fun pointing out the illogical point of view.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  6. #2046

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    I'll do whatever I damn well please. :)
    Especially when I am having fun pointing out the illogical point of view.
    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    But the world changes and successful societies meet that change by adapting appropriately.
    brexit is a policy choice, much the same as opting to be a more collective society and doing some corbyn style nationalisation while weakening the foundation of property ownership.

    And, this is me having fun with the weakness in your own position in accusing me of being the extremist while refusing to compromise.
    Bad logic.

    If Corbyn as PM demanded the nationalization of all private property and the deportation of all persons judged to hold a net worth in the 99th percentile to holding facilities in the far north, would you say it is a compromise to proceed with the nationalization but not the gulags? If there is essentially a binary outcome, and all the results fall on your side of the binary, it is laughable to speak of extremism or resistance to compromise by the other side. It is a bad-faith rhetorical trick.

    Now, if you would like to look down Pannonian for holding the values he does, that's your prerogative, and his in turn. But you can't accuse him of resistance to compromise when, aside from not having any power to affect a compromise, the compromises you deign to present all violate his values just as a "compromise" that ensured greater UK political integration into the EU would violate yours.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 12-13-2018 at 21:55.
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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Bad logic.

    If Corbyn as PM demanded the nationalization of all private property and the deportation of all persons judged to hold a net worth in the 99th percentile to holding facilities in the far north, would you say it is a compromise to proceed with the nationalization but not the gulags? If there is essentially a binary outcome, and all the results fall on your side of the binary, it is laughable to speak of extremism or resistance to compromise by the other side. It is a bad-faith rhetorical trick.

    Now, if you would like to look down Pannonian for holding the values he does, that's your prerogative, and his in turn. But you can't accuse him of resistance to compromise when, aside from not having any power to affect a compromise, the compromises you deign to present all violate his values just as a "compromise" that ensured greater UK political integration into the EU would violate yours.
    Funnily enough, the EU had already compromised with the UK on Furunculus's terms. Increased political integration would not apply to the UK; only other countries. F's complaint was that this would affect the UK's ability to effect power blocs within the EU, as the natural fault lines would leave the UK 1 short. Because these natural fault lines leave the UK short (and note that the support for the EU universally went up across the EU27 following the referendum), he wants revolution which we are patently unprepared for. And on top of that, he blames Remainers. Now this is why I keep reminding Leavers to take responsibility for their win; it is a habit of theirs to blame others for the world not being as they'd want it to be.

  8. #2048
    The Red-titled Forum Administrator Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS


    (someone else linked this, but the narrative amused me.)
    "We are living in space-age times but there's too many of us thinking with stone-age minds" - Daryl Davis
    "What makes something right or wrong?" | How to spot a Humanist
    "Men of Quality do not fear Equality." # | "Belief doesn't change facts. Facts, if you are reasonable, should change your beliefs." RG

  9. #2049
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    It is not deportation of people, its just leaving a political institution that is going in a direction we can't follow.

    This is the point precisely; I never never looked down on pannonian for his remain views, but never have I had that courtesy extended to me. His choice is legitimate, mine apparently is not.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  10. #2050
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    It is not deportation of people, its just leaving a political institution that is going in a direction we can't follow.

    This is the point precisely; I never never looked down on pannonian for his remain views, but never have I had that courtesy extended to me. His choice is legitimate, mine apparently is not.
    Reality is legitimate. Fantasy is not.

  11. #2051

    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    It is not deportation of people, its just leaving a political institution that is going in a direction we can't follow.

    This is the point precisely; I never never looked down on pannonian for his remain views, but never have I had that courtesy extended to me. His choice is legitimate, mine apparently is not.
    My point was over your use of "compromise" and "extremism", not whether the choice to change the institutional relationship with the EU, or leave it, is radical in itself. (Though I have contended elsewhere that it is simply because of the depth and complexity of the actually-existing built relationship).

    But your stance is extreme whereas his is not. You can accept almost anything short of retracting Article 50, whereas Pan prefers whatever produces the least disruption. You occupy almost all the area in which there is space to offer compromise.

    To say something is extreme is not to say that it is bad or illegitimate. Defending Jews in Nazi Germany was extreme. Labor militancy was and remains extreme. All I'm telling you in this latest sub-thread is that calling Pannonian (fundamentally a conservative) extreme and averse to compromise is gross projection and you ought to walk it back.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Funnily enough, the EU had already compromised with the UK on Furunculus's terms. Increased political integration would not apply to the UK; only other countries. F's complaint was that this would affect the UK's ability to effect power blocs within the EU, as the natural fault lines would leave the UK 1 short. Because these natural fault lines leave the UK short (and note that the support for the EU universally went up across the EU27 following the referendum), he wants revolution which we are patently unprepared for. And on top of that, he blames Remainers. Now this is why I keep reminding Leavers to take responsibility for their win; it is a habit of theirs to blame others for the world not being as they'd want it to be.
    I thought the idea was a deepening political union between the rest of the EU, along with declining UK influence on the major decisions of EU structure, will end in de jure political union, or de facto union in which the UK passively assents to whatever the EU imposes.



    On a lighter note:

    Last edited by Montmorency; 12-13-2018 at 22:50.
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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Funnily enough, the EU had already compromised with the UK on Furunculus's terms. Increased political integration would not apply to the UK; only other countries.
    Yes. But a hollow gift unless other peripheral states have an interest in joining us against the consensus, which was disallowed by Belguim (cuck move or what?). The result is as you describe below:

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    F's complaint was that this would affect the UK's ability to effect power blocs within the EU, as the natural fault lines would leave the UK 1 short.
    Yes. As I am sure you'll recall me saying: First we didn't care becuase we had a veto, then we didn't care because we had the vote weight to block QMV, then when the vote weight changed post lisbon cameron tried to get us a red card. what we were offered was a notional exemption for britain which had little real meaning unless the other euro-outs had an incentive to join. Belgium said no.

    So when you say this:

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Because these natural fault lines leave the UK short (and note that the support for the EU universally went up across the EU27 following the referendum), he wants revolution which we are patently unprepared for.
    You are only partially right; the peripheral nations would be very happy to preserve core fiscal and economic independence by forgoing the euro, but that was not an option, so no the fault lines did leave us short.

    So we left!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Reality is legitimate. Fantasy is not.

    I'm not at all sure how that relates to what i said. Would be spiffing if you might further explain, please.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 12-13-2018 at 23:06.
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  13. #2053
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I thought the idea was a deepening political union between the rest of the EU, along with declining UK influence on the major decisions of EU structure, will end in de jure political union, or de facto union in which the UK passively assents to whatever the EU imposes.
    But within the existing structure, we can still persuade others to our POV if our case is sound enough. All that Brexiteers demand, we can still do, in a fashion, within the EU. See Frag's admission that immigration from outside the EU is one of the reasons why he supports Brexit; this is entirely controllable by a UK government within the EU, and post-referendum immigration from outside the EU has actually gone up. See Corbyn's wish to nationalise the railways; this is doable within the EU.

    Compare with Furunculus's suggestion a couple of pages back of invoking some clause or other that might delay Brexit, not to aid transition or other practical use, but just to invoke a once only clause so that no one else can do so after.

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    But your stance is extreme whereas his is not. You can accept almost anything short of retracting Article 50, whereas Pan prefers whatever produces the least disruption. You occupy almost all the area in which there is space to offer compromise.

    To say something is extreme is not to say that it is bad or illegitimate. Defending Jews in Nazi Germany was extreme. Labor militancy was and remains extreme. All I'm telling you in this latest sub-thread is that calling Pannonian (fundamentally a conservative) extreme and averse to compromise is gross projection and you ought to walk it back.
    those three sentences are funny when read together: I occupy all the space for compromise... because I am reasonable?

    i agree the whole argument produces no value, it doesn't get us anywhere meaningful, and it does not make interesting debate here on this thread. I simply got bored of being traduced time after time and decided to make a point of dishing some back. more than happy to return to the implications of the policy rather than playing the man.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post

    Compare with Furunculus's suggestion a couple of pages back of invoking some clause or other that might delay Brexit, not to aid transition or other practical use, but just to invoke a once only clause so that no one else can do so after.
    My point is that the backstop is actually pretty good for us, if they'd offered that to Cameron we'd have bitten Junkers arm off!

    But, my fear, is that we end up with labour sometime within the transition and they do something stupid. again. like blair did in 1997 when he immediately threw away Major's opt-out from the social chapter - which I contend was the single biggest feeding cause of the 2012 promise to hold a referendum. i.e. because the the transition can be extended by "up to two years", that would go into the period beyond the latest possible GE date. And, frankly, i'd rather the WA/PD/FTA is all sorted before they get back into power. After all comrade corbyn wants an end of the competition regs on state aid, so if he ditches that just so he can re-open the coal mines it will come at tremendous cost.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 12-13-2018 at 23:23.
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Very interesting report YouGov has put out. By going solely of First Preferences (first past the post) it looks like Remain is the clear winner.
    However, we all know FPTP has its issues, so they set up each option in head to head choices to determine the Condorcet method winner (possibly the closest we can get mathematically to picking a winner that meets the preferences of the voters).

    May's deal comes out dominating (372 constituencies to Remain's 262) when you actually apply math and take into account the varying preferences of voters for different options. Maybe it's time I step aside from the commentary and recognize that Brexit isn't as frivolous as Pannonian makes it out to be. When it comes down to it, May's deal is the closest Brexiteers will get to their ideal state with the least amount of economic turmoil, on some level this is recognized as Deal beat out No Deal 2 to 1 in the head to head pick.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...tituencies-it-
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Furunculus, Не говорит ерунду

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Very interesting report YouGov has put out. By going solely of First Preferences (first past the post) it looks like Remain is the clear winner.
    However, we all know FPTP has its issues, so they set up each option in head to head choices to determine the Condorcet method winner (possibly the closest we can get mathematically to picking a winner that meets the preferences of the voters).

    May's deal comes out dominating (372 constituencies to Remain's 262) when you actually apply math and take into account the varying preferences of voters for different options. Maybe it's time I step aside from the commentary and recognize that Brexit isn't as frivolous as Pannonian makes it out to be. When it comes down to it, May's deal is the closest Brexiteers will get to their ideal state with the least amount of economic turmoil, on some level this is recognized as Deal beat out No Deal 2 to 1 in the head to head pick.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...tituencies-it-
    ACIN, the hard limitation to the usefulness of any MP constituency analysis is that Brexit will not be decided on a per-constituency vote per se, whether in Parliament or by another referendum. The fact that [EDIT: Corrected because I thought I was referring to the figures in Table 13, but was actually giving figures from Table 14 on the Condorcet vote within MP incumbent supporters] almost 80% of Tory constituencies have Deal as their Condorcet vote, and almost 60% of Labour constituencies have Remain as their Condorcet vote, is therefore electorally not meaningful. More interesting to me is that Remain is basically still only 50-50 against either Deal-Brexit or No-Deal-Brexit, also confirming reports that there has been minimal movement between positions within the electorate (i.e. polarization).

    46% have Remain at 1st preference vs 27% for Deal vs 27 for No Deal. So Leavers are evenly split, but almost all Leavers have the other form of leaving as their second choice. (Deal wins overwhelmingly against No Deal because Remainers prefer Deal to No Deal, ACIN.)

    Also interesting, a majority of respondents who actually voted Leave in 2016 prefer No Deal to Deal (51-40). (I'm looking at the full report.)
    Last edited by Montmorency; Yesterday at 05:37.
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  17. #2057
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Furunculus, Не говорит ерунду
    You meant Не говори ерунду. What you wrote means "Doesn't say nonsense" and you must have meant "Don't say nonsense" as a request/order.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Very interesting report YouGov has put out. By going solely of First Preferences (first past the post) it looks like Remain is the clear winner.
    However, we all know FPTP has its issues, so they set up each option in head to head choices to determine the Condorcet method winner (possibly the closest we can get mathematically to picking a winner that meets the preferences of the voters).

    May's deal comes out dominating (372 constituencies to Remain's 262) when you actually apply math and take into account the varying preferences of voters for different options. Maybe it's time I step aside from the commentary and recognize that Brexit isn't as frivolous as Pannonian makes it out to be. When it comes down to it, May's deal is the closest Brexiteers will get to their ideal state with the least amount of economic turmoil, on some level this is recognized as Deal beat out No Deal 2 to 1 in the head to head pick.
    In my endless Europhile arrogance and without fully understanding the methodical differences you're talking about, I might just as well claim that this only tells us something about how bad the British school system is and how much they hate us. Maybe trying to invade them wasn't so wrong after all, since they hate us landlubbers and always tried to divide us and meddle in our affairs while whining that we would meddle in theirs. And on the side they took millions of other peoples' freedoms, and are still proud of it while whining the EU would be taking theirs...

    Just because something is democratic, that doesn't mean it can't be stupid. That said, I hope they leave now! Get off my europhile lawn!
    I like to be ruled by drunken squirrels from tax havens and why wouldn't I, seeing what the British like!?!


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  19. #2059
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Liam Fox MP, Trade Minister
    I welcome the approval of the EU-Japan economic partnership agreement yesterday, which could boost UK GDP by up to £3bn in the long run. Japan is a vocal defender of free trade and this agreement will form the basis of our new, stronger trading relationship as we leave the EU.
    No it won't moron. Its an agreement with the EU (of which the UK is still a member and would benefit enormously from). Because of YOUR hatred of the EU you and your robotic Far Right ideological nutcase agenda you plan to take us out and away from all these benefits- YOU FOX
    Except Japan has said this FTA will not form the basis of a JP-UK trade deal IF we leave the EU. Do keep up Liam.
    Liam, the UK is leaving the EU so won't benefit from this Japan/EU free trade deal. If you look at the paperwork, Japan is precluded from offering an equivalent deal to the UK.
    Now Liam. It isn’t right to be taking the Michael out of us all like this. The EU Japan Trade Deal starts just as we are supposed to be exiting.
    Are Brexiteers liars or just idiots?

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    Default Re: EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Are Brexiteers liars or just idiots?
    So there goes another 3bn£ out from the window. I guess for some reason EU gets better deals then Britain alone..

    More i think about this, less i understand this Brexit. Who is actually benefiting from it and how?
    Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.

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