UK General Election 2017

[LittleGrizzly]

I thought it was Survation who pretty much called it in the end?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I thought it was Survation who pretty much called it in the end?

Nope, Youguv - the guys who usually poll for Torygraph, among others.

~60% is a big rise on the 43% for the last election two years ago.

Metro had a bit on this - apparently Labour DID capture the middle at age 35, and they got the educated vote, but they lost the working class vote and the elderly came out in droves for the Tories.

That suggests three things to me.

1. The "Dementia Tax" worried old people less than it worried the people who actually stood to lose out, their heirs.

2. Fox hunting probably turned off a lot of younger educated people, by which I mean under 40.

3. A lot of it was about Bexit, May's inflexible "Brexit means Brexit" and her insistence we must leave the Single Market with little to no intellectual nuance will have turned off a lot educated people.

[a completely inoffensive name]

So old people ruined the UK again.

[Furunculus]

So old people ruined the UK again.

ruined?

[Idaho]

So old people ruined the UK again.

I know a few doctors and nurses at the local hospital. It's full of old people with chronic problems who are always complaining about having to wait, having operations delayed, etc. Ask them how they vote, and every time.. "conservative of course". The mind boggles.

[Sir Moody]

Its not really surprising - having talked too a good many older people who support the Conservatives, most cite the 70's and the union strikes as why - if you can remember a time where the left failed badly you are less likely to give it a second shot.

My parents were also in this group, however they were dyed in the wool Liberal voters rather than Conservative, until this election where they both voted Labour.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

So old people ruined the UK again.

I know a few doctors and nurses at the local hospital. It's full of old people with chronic problems who are always complaining about having to wait, having operations delayed, etc. Ask them how they vote, and every time.. "conservative of course". The mind boggles.

It should be noted that, contrary to recent vicious rumours (spread by young people) that old people are not out to "ruin" the UK.

Many of the older generation who voted Brexit did so in order to give their children or grandchildren a better life, because they don't expect to live to see the world get better for them. In this context you can see why the older generation keep voting Conservative, because as bad as things might be right now they've seen them be much worse under Labour. Given that the current Labour top-team were mostly union supporters during the 1970's it's unlikely many working in that period will vote for them because they remember the difference between the rhetoric from that period and reality.

The current generation have the opposite perspective, all they know is disappointment with the Conservatives.

[Beskar]

If Grenfell Tower occurred last week, I think we would be looking at Labour majority. Conservatives have royally screwed up again, and Theresa May turning up for token appearance for cameras and zooming off is a joke. Especially compared to Jeremy Corbyn mingling with the "plebs" as the Tories call them.

[Greyblades]

I'm sorry, are the tories responsible for this fire now?

In what universe would a random disaster swing the election?

[Beskar]

I'm sorry, are the tories responsible for this fire now?

In what universe would a random disaster swing the election?

The fact they were sitting ontop of the report?
The fact the massive amount of tories (Who are landlords) voted down safe housing legislation?
The fact Boris Johnson cut local fire stations?

Not a random disaster, it is brought about by Tory incompetence. Quite a number of them...

[Montmorency]

Why are there so few casualties? What was the occupancy? I understand that there is not even an estimate of the number of missing and the building is still hazardous to be within, but isn't there anything right now differentiating a final toll in the tens, and one in the hundreds (or thousands)?

[Pannonian]

Why are there so few casualties? What was the occupancy? I understand that there is not even an estimate of the number of missing and the building is still hazardous to be within, but isn't there anything right now differentiating a final toll in the tens, and one in the hundreds (or thousands)?

Those are the numbers released so far. Entire families are still missing. It'll be a while before they can put everything together.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The fact they were sitting ontop of the report?
The fact the massive amount of tories (Who are landlords) voted down safe housing legislation?
The fact Boris Johnson cut local fire stations?

Not a random disaster, it is brought about by Tory incompetence. Quite a number of them...

Successive government have sat on this issue since 1999.

There's no legislation in SNP-controlled Scotland or Labour-controlled Wales either.

The major issue appears to have been cladding and the lack of sprinklers - cladding is common throughout the UK and sprinklers do not need to be retroactively fitted anywhere in the UK except as part of major renovations. It seems unlikely that a few more fire stations would have appreciably improved things under those circumstances and in any case Boris had to work with the money he had and the UK is near to broke.

Conclusion - government complacency across Westminster and devolved administrations for over a decade - not specifically a Tory fault.

Hey Beskar, why don't you redirect some of that partisan anti-Tory feeling towards ALL politicians? Including, I might add, recently resigned Tim Farron and soon-to-be-elected leaders Vince Cable.

Hmm?

[LittleGrizzly]

So old people ruined the UK again.

It is a rapidly shrinking demographic, can't help but feel they are trying to sink the ship before they have to hand over the wheel...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It is a rapidly shrinking demographic, can't help but feel they are trying to sink the ship before they have to hand over the wheel...

Because that's what you'd do?

Apply basic empathy, Grizzly.

You're old, you might not live to see another election - what motivates you to vote? Self Interest? Is that really likely?

[LittleGrizzly]

Quite frankly considering their voting patterns I can only assume that is why they have voted the way they have done repeatedly. TBH I'd just put it down to the likes of the Daily Mail and the Sun, although I guess the other side would say exactly the same about my lot.

No worries though, I think with the severe mess they are making of Brexit combined with bias already built up (for good reason) in the younger generations is going to lead to a better Britain in the long run, the Tories are incredibly toxic now for so many people.

[Sarmatian]

Old people are naturally conservative. They want to preserve old values by which they lived most of their life.

Young people are naturally rebellious, they want change and have no patience and they tend to vote liberal, when they do vote.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Old people are naturally conservative. They want to preserve old values by which they lived most of their life.

Young people are naturally rebellious, they want change and have no patience and they tend to vote liberal, when they do vote.

Isn't it more likely that older people vote to preserve the status quo as a way to minimize risk in their lives? In your twenties, riding out a bad decade is possible if not convenient. In your seventies, your time and energy is much more limited.

[Pannonian]

Isn't it more likely that older people vote to preserve the status quo as a way to minimize risk in their lives? In your twenties, riding out a bad decade is possible if not convenient. In your seventies, your time and energy is much more limited.

Funnily enough, it's the Big C Conservatives who are the radicals. It's Labour who have tended to preserve the status quo state of life.

[Montmorency]

Old people are naturally conservative. They want to preserve old values by which they lived most of their life.

Young people are naturally rebellious, they want change and have no patience and they tend to vote liberal, when they do vote.

This trope does not give us much of the story. I think we find that people who have some political views or orientations, maintain them throughout their lives to a large extent; that rather than a division between young and old, there is a division between eras, decades, or generations (as well as places) - and not in a linear conservative>liberal manner; that political positions which become more acceptable over time in the larger society, such as gay marriage, become more acceptable across most or all age groups, even to similar extents; that popular ideologically-marked criteria at one point in time shift or are replaced by other criteria, including vis-a-vis party identification or actual voting...

This has been commented on a lot in recent years:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ting-behavior/
http://www.pewforum.org/2016/05/12/c...-gay-marriage/
https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Lac...ing%202015.pdf
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...61379413000875
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4347987/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-politics.html
http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2017/04...35-and-50.html

[Pannonian]

This trope does not give us much of the story. I think we find that people who have some political views or orientations, maintain them throughout their lives to a large extent; that rather than a division between young and old, there is a division between eras, decades, or generations (as well as places) - and not in a linear conservative>liberal manner; that political positions which become more acceptable over time in the larger society, such as gay marriage, become more acceptable across most or all age groups, even to similar extents; that popular ideologically-marked criteria at one point in time shift or are replaced by other criteria, including vis-a-vis party identification or actual voting...

This has been commented on a lot in recent years:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ting-behavior/
http://www.pewforum.org/2016/05/12/c...-gay-marriage/
https://libres.uncg.edu/ir/asu/f/Lac...ing%202015.pdf
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...61379413000875
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4347987/
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-politics.html
http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2017/04...35-and-50.html

It still amounts to a preponderance of Labour voters in the age groups giving way to a preponderance of Conservative voters in the age groups, with the crossover point in the 35-40 group. Every younger group of 5 or so years is more Labour than its older neighbour, every older group or 5 or so years is more Conservative than its younger neighbour.

[LittleGrizzly]

Been reading a fair bit of conservative reaction to the election, a little bit of enjoying the wailing but also to see how they respond.

As I have seen pointed out a couple of times, people didn't tend to just become conservative just by getting older but acquiring assets over time helped them become more so, I saw someone mentioning home ownership as a factor. Unless the Tories are going to start aiming policies at these middle age groups or these groups suddenly do start enjoying the wealth and home ownerships levels of the older age groups then I don't imagine they are likely to go that much to the right if at all.

I tend to feel there is a base level for each as well with turning large sections becoming difficult without extreme events.

[Montmorency]

It still amounts to a preponderance of Labour voters in the age groups giving way to a preponderance of Conservative voters in the age groups, with the crossover point in the 35-40 group. Every younger group of 5 or so years is more Labour than its older neighbour, every older group or 5 or so years is more Conservative than its younger neighbour.

You're talking about the existing people and relationships. Indeed, those who were born in the 1960s are overall more conservative than those born in the 1990s. This won't tell us much about the beliefs or voting habits in 20 years of those who are millennials now. I.e. the actual people who will become 35-40 in the future are more telling than the fact that they will be 35-40.

As for the UK, the Thatcher Children, those born in the 1960s and 1970s, have tended to be more right-wing than those born in the previous decades, and more likely to vote Conservative. I told you that it isn't a linear progression.

Those in the oldest age group are less likely to agree
with the Thatcherite position on redistribution than the youngest age group, but are more likely
to think poorly of benefit seekers and to want children to be taught to obey authority. The effects
for year of survey show that, with the exception of the inequality item, there are significant
period effects with increasing support for the Thatcherite position in all cases except support for
the death penalty. This suggests that, over a period of twenty or more years, the electorate
indeed became more Thatcherite, particularly with respect to negative attitudes about the
benefits system, the unemployed, benefit recipients and the welfare system more generally.
The coefficients for political generations in the APC models presented in Table 3, in
conjunction with the results from the Wald tests presented in Table 4, show that across eight of
nine indicators, Thatcher’s Children are more right wing and authoritarian than the generation
preceding them (Wilson/Callaghan’s Children). This provides support to Hypothesis 1. Blair’s
Babies are also more right wing and authoritarian than this political generation, confirming that
Thatcherite values were reproduced under New Labour, and become stronger and embedded in
the generation that came of age after Thatcher’s time in office. This is consistent with
Hypothesis 2. Thatcher’s Children and Blair’s Babies are even more right wing economically
than the generation that came of age before the post-war consensus. Blair’s Babies in particular
are almost as negative about benefits and the welfare system as the generation that came of age
before it was created. They are also nearly as authoritarian as the oldest generations, showing
that the trend toward modernization and greater social liberalism was at least slowed down in
Britain under the Thatcher governments.

[Pannonian]

Been reading a fair bit of conservative reaction to the election, a little bit of enjoying the wailing but also to see how they respond.

As I have seen pointed out a couple of times, people didn't tend to just become conservative just by getting older but acquiring assets over time helped them become more so, I saw someone mentioning home ownership as a factor. Unless the Tories are going to start aiming policies at these middle age groups or these groups suddenly do start enjoying the wealth and home ownerships levels of the older age groups then I don't imagine they are likely to go that much to the right if at all.

I tend to feel there is a base level for each as well with turning large sections becoming difficult without extreme events.

The biggest problem in that respect is Brexit. With inflation increasing due to increased costs, and median income decreasing, people who don't bank with the Bank of Mum & Dad are going to get screwed. That is what incenses me about the top end of the Labour leadership, namely Corbyn and McDonnell, who can't see beyond the EU regulations that bar old school nationalisation and other socialist trappings. If median income goes down, all the homilies about socialism mean nothing.

I'm a small c conservative who believes in incremental improvements to life. Make things as stable as possible so that people can plan ahead, then make it possible for them to plan for a better future life. I detest revolution. And Brexit is the biggest revolutionary factor I've seen in my lifetime. I hate Brexit, but especially Lexiteers like Corbyn and McDonnell. At least Rexiteers have coherent worldviews, even if I oppose every single aspect of them.

[Pannonian]

You're talking about the existing people and relationships. Indeed, those who were born in the 1960s are overall more conservative than those born in the 1990s. This won't tell us much about the beliefs or voting habits in 20 years of those who are millennials now. I.e. the actual people who will become 35-40 in the future are more telling than the fact that they will be 35-40.

As for the UK, the Thatcher Children, those born in the 1960s and 1970s, have tended to be more right-wing than those born in the previous decades, and more likely to vote Conservative. I told you that it isn't a linear progression.

That's because it is now 2017. Take another look in 2047. You'll find that the younger age groups tend to vote the Left party, while the older age groups tend to vote Tory, with the crossover in the group who were born in 2007-2012.

[Montmorency]

That's because it is now 2017. Take another look in 2047. You'll find that the younger age groups tend to vote the Left party, while the older age groups tend to vote Tory, with the crossover in the group who were born in 2007-2012.

What's the evidence, as opposed to contemporary youth forming a life-long bent toward Labor and perhaps those being born now forming an early bent toward Conservatives?

[Pannonian]

What's the evidence, as opposed to contemporary youth forming a life-long bent toward Labor and perhaps those being born now forming an early bent toward Conservatives?

Back in the early days of Blair, it was noted that the Conservative Party was extraordinarily elderly, and it was estimated that the Conservative member base would die off within a decade or so. A couple of decades on, the Tories are in government, and the same age group trends noted by Churchill are still there. The trend has been there throughout my lifetime, and goes back before my lifetime. Why should I assume that things are going to be different when the evidence says otherwise?

[Fragony]

Just don't be afraid of total chaos and yo will be fine

[Pannonian]

Just don't be afraid of total chaos

Did you vote UKIP in the last general election? Did your UKIP candidate lose his deposit?

[Fragony]

Did you vote UKIP in the last general election? Did your UKIP candidate lose his deposit?

I can't but would. The EU needs nothing other than being burned

It could work but everybody there must leave