XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[novice]

I can't compete with your frenzy, Pizza. And frankly, being tunneled by a dead wrong townie (literally) with superior debating skills does not help.

After actually reading through that frenzy I see you intend to give me space, so thanks for that.

[BSmith]

My vote on Pizza certainly looks bad given he turned out town, but I would do it again given the info that I had at the time. I have seen time and again Pizza pushing an agenda where he cherry picks things people have said and makes a very compelling case against said person, while minimizing or ignoring the points that don’t fit his agenda. I think Cuth had some extremely valid counters to the case that Pizza was pushing on Novice that frankly Pizza didn’t want to hear and didn’t address at all. It fit the Pizza-agenda-pushing pattern exactly which is why I voted for him.

[BSmith]

Cuth - did you poison anyone last night?

[Cuthillius]

Cuth - did you poison anyone last night?

Nobody was poisoned by my hand.

[Fredwood]

So Pizza get's rezzed as a Advent zombie, welcome back for this phase.

I'm kind of in agreement with CSargo's list of good lynch candidates. Manasi's last second vote to tie does not look good for Novice or her. I have a bit of a migraine right now, hopefully I'll be better tomorrow, but with my eye twitching I don't know how insightful I'll be before another night's sleep.

[autolycus]

Now auto I don't get, but it's probably because he has so little to say. Why is he voting Dp101? I don't think DP is by any means cleared, but if auto is caught up as he claims, he should know that people are likely to take this day to vote for either Manasi or novice, so why start out off-wagon?

Sorry for the lack of clarity, I skimmed through to end of D2 and saw that pizza was rez'ed from page 1. I'm now up to date (as of 1:00 pm).

After running a few iso-skims, here are my top scum-takes

From Pizza's list
1:unvote: vote: Manasi
Lots of posts, feels low on content.
2. Fredwood

Man, did not want to see that. Sucks...I'm inclined to vote for Novice out of respect for mislynching a town Pizza, almost feels like that is owed to him. Those two's fates were tied to each other. I guess I'll see how the night goes and if any new information arises, but if nothing new comes in I'm voting Novice. I don't think his self-pres and attitude adds to my suspicion, it really has no bearing on the course I want to take.

This feels like trying to push us towards the novice lynch in advance.
3.novice
I still think novice is likely to be town, but more interactions means we get more info from a novice flip than:
4. Bsmith
His saying he'd lynch Atpg again feels really town to me, and he doesn't have enough posts to give us much data.

Off Pizza's list:
DP looks better after another pass-through.
I still don't like Montmorency, but if he's scum, he'll give us more connections and posts to hang him with, so definitely not the lynch for today.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I'm still catching up (I lied when I said I'd be done by last night), but right now, if we're truly running a Manasi-Sooh thunderdome (which I disagree with), I'd probably vote Sooh. Manasi's seemed townier to me so far.

More of a tone thing than anything else.

---

Also now I can reveal this: I just got out of another extremely intense game on another site where I subbed in as scum on D3, made over 900 posts in four game days, was correctly lynched at F5 lylo, and then saw my partner bring home the win on the final day. Manasi can confirm this. So in other words, I'm going to give this game an honest effort, but don't expect anywhere near my A-game.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Vote: novice

Feel like this is the correct vote. I said I'd rather go with Sooh over Manasi if it came down to too of them, but I'm more confident in this than I am either of them. His posts are just lacking that fire and desire to solve that they had in Pokemon, and this is independent of all of the Pizza/novice stuff that I don't think I've gotten to you yet.

(I've cast this vote after being up to date as of post 913)

[Montmorency]

If I am here at all, that means to me that there are four scums likely in the setup, not three.

I speculated 4scum+1neutral yesterday.

I'm back, read the all of D1 and first half of D2 then skimmed to the end. A few quick takes before I run to work:

Champ saving csargo and GH voting csargo after replacing Champ suggests GH/csargo not buddies.

I was leaning town for Novice before wagons, and still do. Accordingly, we should look in both wagons:

Vote:Dp101 is my first take in the pizza wagon, with Fred not far behind
Monty and csargo are my quicktake scum leans in the Novice wagon.

Be back for a little bit in about four hours.

If novice is town, then scum will be spread in both wagons, with possibly one or so off-wagon (though these were Sooh and Winston on Manasi and GH on Csargo). If novice is scum, then Logic and Barto are the only two co-voters on that wagon I consider up for scum (Pizza and Csnow being cleared, myself and Csargo being good townies). And I'm not even convinced Logic and Barto should be scum, though there have been murky times.

BSmith gets more time and is low-info in the time where novice or Manasi can be decided. Either auto or Bsmith would be a good vig. (I don't think BSmith's latest post swings either way.)

[Montmorency]

That was a statement of preference toward voting novice, btw. I don't know what to make of Sooh-Manasi as they're both in the lower half of the ranks, and novice lynch sheds light on both anyway.

[Montmorency]

I am re-reading the whole.danged.game one.more.time, feeling like this and every single townie should as well:

Correct music btw:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Once I travelled with flesh and bones
Once I did kiss a warm mouth
Now I wander on a long road
In mold here around the trail of graves

Worms ate and frost bit
In mold here around the trail of graves

Once I rode a fast roamer
Once I wore armour and steel
Now I wander on a long road
In mold here around the trail of graves

Cold frost and hot fire
In mold here around the trail of graves

Once a proud and fair man
Yet once I treacherously slaughtered
Now I wander on a long road
In mold here around the trail of graves

Now I sing my gallows song
In mold here around the trail of graves

Now I sing my gallows song
In mold here around the trail of graves

[Logic]

So, I'm going back and forth on Fredwood.

Man, did not want to see that. Sucks...I'm inclined to vote for Novice out of respect for mislynching a town Pizza, almost feels like that is owed to him. Those two's fates were tied to each other. I guess I'll see how the night goes and if any new information arises, but if nothing new comes in I'm voting Novice. I don't think his self-pres and attitude adds to my suspicion, it really has no bearing on the course I want to take.

This post doesn't look good to me, but...

So Pizza get's rezzed as a Advent zombie, welcome back for this phase.

I'm kind of in agreement with CSargo's list of good lynch candidates. Manasi's last second vote to tie does not look good for Novice or her. I have a bit of a migraine right now, hopefully I'll be better tomorrow, but with my eye twitching I don't know how insightful I'll be before another night's sleep.

...the followup looks town.

In the former, it looks like he wants to lynch novice (which I agree) but his stated reasoning is not what I would consider sound.

In the latter, he is commenting on a list compiled by Csargo, and bows out for the moment saying something that I think we are all thinking.

Vote: Novice

Fredwood slips down a spot on my "likely townie list"

Winston
Cuthillius
Csargo
Fredwood
Champ/GeneralHankerchief

El Barto
Dp101
Sooh
Monteromency

autolycus
Bsmith

Manasi
novice

Bsmith saying a little bit more after I posted his ISO looks like less coincidence and more making sure to respond since somone is talking about him, but I am a tad suspicious of him so I may be playing into confirmation bias.

What concerns me most about my list is that I have too many in my "top tier" as townies. I'm being played, but I can't tell who the puppet master is yet.

[Logic]

Because my Vote: novice was not bolded in my prior post.

[Winston Hughes]

Vote: Manasi

I've read her iso and I can't find any significant reason to think her town. There were a few posts early on that expressed snap reads on people in a way that's often read as townie, but that pretty much dried up after I queried the one on me and Logic. The signal-to-noise ratio throughout D1 was generally weak, and while it's been stronger since, the cost has been a much reduced post rate and the posts themselves feeling much less natural. And while for a lot of players I'd consider that late pizza vote to look townie simply because it would be so audacious as scum, my impression of Manasi is that refuge in audacity is very much in her playbook. Probably the best thing in her favour right now is failing to answer my question first time around, as she did something similar as town in French Rev, but all that does is mitigate one piece of evidence against her; it does nothing to counterbalance her overall lack of townpoints.

I'll take a look at the other main suspects later on - and cross-check Manasi for possible clears and scumlinks while I'm at it - but I don't expect my vote to change.

[novice]

This has been the first game in a while where No Lynch was permitted.

If I holstered a kill, where did the Mafia kill go? Where did your suggested protection go? Maybe you attacked Fredwood and someone protected him? Or as I mentioned, someone was blocked? Jailed? Bulletproof vests? There are many possibilities, and it's interesting which ones you avoid.



Would I really? Tunneling Pizza from D1 is not just a bad idea for Town, it's a good way to get nightkilled whether or not Pizza is scum, and a good way to have Pizza lynch you fast, directly or indirectly. Maybe I was just demoralized by my read: if I immediately scum-read scum last game and couldn't do anything with it, what can I hope to achieve against scum Pizza now?



Auto can't be mostly cleared in event of novice scum with such an early vote, as you know he is prone to leaving votes like that even if it puts partners at risk without him around to change it; you did the same at least once. BSmith should be nuller. GH lynch should be sooner. DP may be a bit lower, Csargo considerably so. I should be town overall. Otherwise endorse these leans.



It does strike me that novice has made more snipes than connections.
As an aside, since novice's vote onto Csargo, third on wagon, precipitated the final EOD flurry, who would you say he was trying to save? You liked Barto there, and shouldn't be Csargo unless superbussing to save yet another partner, and Jowy flipped town - so what was novice doing? Your logical conclusion would be that Sooh is novice's partner and he moved to sve her, right? And since you mentioned Champ crossposting Barto for both voting Jowy, your alternative in case of novice town would be that Chamop was trying to save partner Csargo, right? A lot of your D1 activity analysis rides on the assumption that Csargo is town. So I'm willing to see clarification by lynching novice. And the case is neat, I guess.

Let's see who you really are, Pizza.

Vote: novice

(Note that vote may be subject to change onto Pizza at any time or administrator's discretion.)

Only people today I will consider voting: Novice Pizza GH, also several others (!)

Long post about Pizza and connections, one line about me, votes for me. Scummy.

[novice]

Surprising that I'm getting two people to follow me when I'm so widely sussed.

Are you really, though? Backburner lynchbait, perhaps.

[Winston Hughes]

This early D1 post from Manasi really jumps out in light of yesterday's events:

Waiting for novice to post himself clear, because that's basically what happened in Pokemon.

[novice]

Could be the scum counterwagon, as always.

Did you mean a counterwagon to me? I can't remember what the tally was at the time.

[novice]

In absolute terms however, right now I want to thunderdome Novice-Pizza, or just lynch General Champerchief and save the Dome for tomorrow.

Given what we know now that's a very sinister suggestion.

[Montmorency]

Did you mean a counterwagon to me? I can't remember what the tally was at the time.

Manasi wagon. You were on it.

Given what we know now that's a very sinister suggestion.

?

[novice]

Novice… I wouldn't be that sorry to lose him, not least because having someone perennially delegating his votes isn't the best option (this is the MU me coming to the surface).

That's pretty uncharitable.

[novice]

Manasi wagon. You were on it.

I know, but what wagon was the Manasi wagon a counterwagon to?

?

You wanted to lynch GH (lock town) and thunderdome Pizza and me (two townies) the next day.

[novice]

Wht switch from one bandwagon of 3 to make Manasi a 3 with your vote?

It was to see who else were willing to lynch Manasi. It wasn't for self-preservation, as you yourself explain quite well to El Barto:

Moving from one tied wagon to make a different wagon tied doesn't seem like much of a self preservation vote. Just because the Manasi wagon is newer doesn't mean it will gain more traction. Unless you've got a reason to think that Manasi will draw more addtional votes than Pizza.

It should be noted though that I wasn't voting Pizza before so your description isn't quite correct.

[novice]

I really want to vote GH at this point, which conflicts with my gutread of Champ, conundrum.

Why? Have my myriad contributions since I subbed in been scummy enough to get you to reverse course? IIRC the only thing that didn't sit well with you was my townread of Monty - so why not vote Monty instead?

Also I'm probably just going to catch up over the night phase, but I'll try to get in the current flow of things in the meantime.

Pertinent. Possible Csargo - Monty pairing. Both want to lynch GH.

[novice]

The case is not bad, and gives information.

The case was (well, is) classic Pizza hot air. I think he really wanted to prove himself so he gambled on a hunch and activated spin mode.

[Zack]

Correct music btw:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Once I travelled with flesh and bones
Once I did kiss a warm mouth
Now I wander on a long road
In mold here around the trail of graves

Worms ate and frost bit
In mold here around the trail of graves

Once I rode a fast roamer
Once I wore armour and steel
Now I wander on a long road
In mold here around the trail of graves

Cold frost and hot fire
In mold here around the trail of graves

Once a proud and fair man
Yet once I treacherously slaughtered
Now I wander on a long road
In mold here around the trail of graves

Now I sing my gallows song
In mold here around the trail of graves

Now I sing my gallows song
In mold here around the trail of graves

Don't edit posts.

[novice]

This is also concerning.

No it isn't, what's concerning is you dodging the relatively simple question I just asked you.

I don't like your tone, and I don't want to lynch Monty.

Vote: Csargo

Probably parking this here.

Fully agree with this. I would have joined you here.

[novice]

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053752896

Monty calls GH scum for something very wifom'y.

[Montmorency]

I know, but what wagon was the Manasi wagon a counterwagon to?

You know? You just asked if it was a counter to your wagon. You and Pizza were tied with two votes early in the day when Sooh began the Manasi wagon and you and Barto gave it 3 votes quickly. (Possible bad look where novice scum or Sooh scum).

You wanted to lynch GH (lock town) and thunderdome Pizza and me (two townies) the next day.

GH isn't lock town, and GH only claimed at SoD today.


I see novice has entered full tilt mode, grasping at any which straw. This would seem to be what you lynched Pizza over.

[novice]

Nope.

1. Pizza-novice more important
2. I want Pizza's input.
3. GH should receive the courtesy of being permitted to catch up.

Okay at least he recanted the suggested postponement of the thunderdome.
I can understand the call for a thunderdome too from a townie perspective, although of course scum would love it too. One thing's for sure, scum would prefer Pizza to lose the thunderdome, and go for a 2-for-1.