So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston
Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.
Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.
Originally Posted by Csargo
Askthepizzaguy - super town duh
autolycus - meh
BSmith - scummy
Csargo - super town
Cuthillius - slight town
Dp101 - kinda town
El Barto - gutread kinda scummy?
Fredwood - null/slight town
GeneralHankerchief - returned pizza, prolly town
Logic - kinda scummy
Manasi - scummy
Montmorency - null/kinda town
novice - scummy
Sooh - kinda town
Winston Hughes - town
These are my vague thoughts before I have to go to work. GH/Barto are up in the air imo, I don't feel great about those. Logic/BSmith also sort of idk, need to look at Logic's iso again. BSmith is meh.
I don't understand why you have Barto and auto clear. Especially not auto I don't think, unless there's something I'm missing?
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
I don't understand why you have Barto and auto clear. Especially not auto I don't think, unless there's something I'm missing?
Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.
Let's say Logic is scum and novice isn't, or not aligned.
Who's the last baddy?
I'd probably lean you being scum if that's the case. Potentially Dp. I feel if Logic is scum and novice isn't, I think last scum is probably on BSmith wagon. Of the other wagon auto or Barto.
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston
Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.
Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.
I killed BSmith when no one else wanted to.
Scummy thing to say.
Scummy to clear Fred, auto, and Winston.
Originally Posted by Dp101
If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?
Wrong. If novice is scum, Csargo looks even better.
Scummy thing to say.
Originally Posted by Dp101
Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.
As I said, I don't think we should take that spew too far. Manasi could have been misdirecting.
Originally Posted by Csargo
I'd probably lean you being scum if that's the case. Potentially Dp. I feel if Logic is scum and novice isn't, I think last scum is probably on BSmith wagon. Of the other wagon auto or Barto.
Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.
You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.
Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.
You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.
Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.
At this point it doesn't matter who was on the wagons, because someone was bussing clearly. There's not enough on auto to make a decent read. I'm assuming you're not townreading me either. Where did you get Fred/Cuth, I never said either in that post? novice flip gives us good information, and Logic seems lock scum at this point, so all of this is conjecture and feels atm. Not sure why you're getting so bent out of shape about it.
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
Wrong. If novice is scum, Csargo looks even better.
Scummy thing to say.
As I said, I don't think we should take that spew too far. Manasi could have been misdirecting.
Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.
You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.
Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.
Also find this hilarious tbh.
What would be your PoE if Logic is scum and novice is not?
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.
The only issue I have with Auto rn, is that he voted me in a situation where it was consensus we would vote BSmith, as a way to clear BSmith...that may be a tad personal from my point of view, and I think Auto's is cleared depending if Novice is scum. I think he's definitely in a higher tier then other non-clears though.
The only issue I have with Auto rn, is that he voted me in a situation where it was consensus we would vote BSmith, as a way to clear BSmith...that may be a tad personal from my point of view, and I think Auto's is cleared depending if Novice is scum. I think he's definitely in a higher tier then other non-clears though.
My reaction may be a tad personal I mean. Seems odd he'd buck against consensus on a low poster to lynch another person to clear a low poster. (shrug emote)
Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.
Her basic stance was he had basically done nothing.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Okay anyway.
How the are people reading Auto as town?
All two of his posts were him sheeping (now dead confirmed villagers) and doing ~nothing else to help himself.
He somehow had an independent scum read on DP who is so far down everyone's lists it's insane.
I'm just shocked he only has two relevant posts in the game.
How is this okay?
Vote: Auto
She basically said the same thing about BSmith here.
Originally Posted by Manasi
I think there have been two people in this game who have town read me.
Good work, you guys.
People just seem comfortable in their POE and I'm gonna be at work/in a car until EOD.
I do still think that people are just overlooking auto which really bugs me.
I have maybe read one BSmith post but I'd go for them over me if it came to it.
I don't think Sooh has been posting better but I also don't think she's getting lynched in any world today so rip.
Sooh, what were the questions I didn't respond to?
So I wouldn't necessarily clear auto for that, but he looks good all things considered. He needs to step it up though, because we're in mid-late game and he's posted a handful of times, which is unacceptable.
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
Alright guys, this may be my final message. I hope I can at least be proud of my play as I leave you.
Here is my endowment to you.
I hard claim ADVENT Shieldbearer. I am a doctor. I am protecting Cuth tonight. I have partial resistance to poisoning (it takes an extra round, day and night, to kill me). My doctoring also confers the same effect so, sorry novice but your life didn't turn out to be worth extending while townies are under threat.
I protected Crimson Snow N1 (insured with his bulletproof), and again N2. He died then. I protected Sooh N3. She died. I don't know if it was two strongman shots, or if they used an extra vig or what.
My shock at seeing two protections in a row overcome by Mafia is part of what led to my performance with abandon yesterday, at personal risk.
And here we are. I urge all townies to claim soon, and to claim hard. Don't give 'em room to wriggle.
THE PLAYERS
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Cuth: He just can't be Mafia. There's a small chance he's a serial killer. Don't lynch unless, 1. It's LYLO, 2. You already lynched 3 Mafia, 3. There is an extra, unaccounted kill at some point.
Novice: Third party is likely as of now, though he made his claim sound like he could benefit the Mafia in some way ("evac"?). If he survives the night, don't lynch off the handle, though he probably shouldn't live to the end of the game. Get him to contribute first. At this point he can't be both scum and a fall guy for scum, so we need to tease out whether a novice lynch hurts scum or not, which we do through analysis, activity, and interaction. Novice wagon voting in the past is largely meaningless in the case of him being 3P. Probably also worth it to rule out Logic-novice for the way they had been going at each other D2 and D3, so I suppose that is also something to consider if you have to choose between Logic and novice today (i.e. novice alive and lynched flips scum = Logic town). You may well end up lynching novice if he lives, just take your time, draw it out. Don't treat him like a BSmith lynch. If novice does die tonight and isn't scum, Logic should be your top candidate for lynch but same goes with pushing analysis and activity.
Auto: Speaking of meaningless votes, auto might as well be sub-BSmith now. Any Manasi spew is not worth much unless you assume she couldn't have been calculating any such spew. If he flips scum and Logic does not, consider that lonely Fred vote he made yesterday in the midst of the BSmith wagon, and how he said lynching Fred would help resolve BSmith. Possibly a distancing inversion of my view that BSmith flipping scum makes Fredwood look better. I think scum-auto makes Fred look worse by this.
Originally Posted by autolycus
I'm going to vote: Fred. Bsmith is certainly not cleared in my book, but with his starting the Bsmith trend going, he and Bsmith aren't both scum (so lynching him would help me make up my mind on Bsmith), and he was my second choice yesterday and nothing's happened to change that.
Since he has so few posts though, evaluations either way have to be dampened, including his best look in being an early Manasi voter D3. His full ISO is voting Novice D1, voting DP and putting Csargo and Monty in POE for voting novice on D2, voting Manasi "from Pizza's list" and boosting novice (again) and BSmith at the expense of Fredwood and Monty on D3, and voting Fred yesterday as mentioned. A plausible lynch, but also something you have to watch in how others promote it (to their advantage?).
On another note, my sister is getting into town from out of the country this evening, so I won't be active in the second half of the game day (from about 2 pm EDT tomorrow until some time on Sunday)
Logic: Nothing much to recommend him this game. Claims to be trying a lot harder this game than in Pokemon, but I see it the other way around. Susses Csargo and novice N3, after voting Csargo with BSmith D3. Hardclaimed Advent Trooper, most generic town role (just flipped by Sooh, then claimed by Barto), pretty safe claim, right after I made the call for claims. Ingratiation? His early adoption of my Lynch BSmith agenda may also be WIFOMy in the absence of any other content, especially with how quickly it came after DP finally placed the second vote on the wagon. Someone needs to fully ISO him for interactions. Have novice do it parallel as part of his community service, if he's alive. I offer a start on D1 (w/ other relevants thrown in for good measure):
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Originally Posted by BSmith
Random Gods tell me to vote: Sooh though I am tempted to vote for one of the no lynchers.
Originally Posted by Logic
If you jump ship, and onto one of the no lynchers, there is a reasonable chance that I will join you.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Hi Auto!
Originally Posted by Manasi
Hm, what else.
I think that was a really forced joke by Sooh - it just read as really awkward.
Winston's entrance towny, Logic's reaction also towny.
You seem to have missed it the first time, but I'd still like an answer to this:
On both counts, why?
Originally Posted by Winston Hughes
Monty aside, I've got Manasi, Logic, and Cuth all needing close attention on my read through, plus autolycus looking a fair bit scummier than usual for his quietude, simply because he showed in his champs game that he's capable of so much more.
[Early day Winston interactions; Cuth reacts later, in mid-day]
Originally Posted by Cuthillius
you
you do realize 7% is squarely below rand [on the miller claim reasoning]
Originally Posted by novice
This is how far the multiquoting limit let me go for this post. Halfway through the thread I think.
I think I agree [Logic is towny].
"You" here is Jowy, right? Oh, reading on, it's referring to Logic. Meh. I think Jowy is townier tbh.
Originally Posted by Logic
Forum ate my post, so here is the shorter version:
This pings to me as scummy. I can't put my finger on the "why"
Csargo's "I just wana eat" gif pings to me as scummy.
Dp101 isn't doing himself any favors, but I don't have him as near wolf as you guys do. I think his defensiveness is well within most the town range of most people
Crimson_snow was initially voting for no lynch. Pinged me later with this:
While "contrarian" isn't exactly a wolf-tell, it is a bit anti-town.
I was considering placing a vote on the next highest wagon behind DP101, then I saw it was El Barto, being voted on by Fredwood and Crimson snow, and then immediately declined. Fredwood and Crimson Snow I think are much higher wolf candidates than Barto. Not sure who I'm voting for just yet, but I am going to Unvote: Winston Hughes while I am thinking about it.
Originally Posted by Dp101
Logic's mini-wall is slightly towny. [echoing Jowy above him]
Originally Posted by Csargo
I don't like any of those choices [from Jowy, Barto/Logic/Champ/Monty]. They're all at best null reads for me. Except Monty, he's slightly scummy.
Originally Posted by Winston Hughes
@Cuth
What do you think of Logic and Manasi?
Originally Posted by Cuthillius
no real thought on logic, though gun to head probably town, i KINDA like manasi as of right now but it's like
your gameplay is up a couple steps already from your first games here/on cfc
good to see :)
Originally Posted by Manasi
Sup scrubs.
Winston, just thought it was a natural/seamless entrance that wasn't forced etc.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Granted, I'm pretty sure that was like 24 hours ago.
Vote: Sooh
Originally Posted by Cuthillius
...and?
i'm not lynching a one poster, and she did leave a legit excuse
Originally Posted by Logic
Mobile posting: exoect errors.
Brief insight: if Dp101 is scum, I find it unlikely that novice is on his team. I saw at least one post by novice that looks like too convincing a case for Dp101 and novice to be on the same team.
And @Cuthillius I don't think I've greatly improved over the 4 games I've played since the one on CFC. If I remember right, I was killed n1 that game.
Plus, you were around to see me royally mess up Pokemon, so I'd say I haven't been given enough time to show how bad I can be.
Of the lurkers, I'm most comfortable taking down Monty. Any takers? Vote: Montmorency.
Originally Posted by Winston Hughes
Vote: Logic
The background is that he was the host of the recent game where I randed a miller-type role, in which I opened with the same hardclaim bit as I opened with here. Discussions around that claim ended up dominating the whole first day, culminating in me getting mislynched, but not before I correctly picked out several townies and scumbags based on their reactions. He and I then spent a while talking about the day's events in dead chat.
In this context, his reaction here looks bad to me. It was like he felt he needed to react in some way, but got caught between playing along with the claim and showing that he knew it wasn't for real.
Then there was Manasi's reaction, which felt like he was giving us both town credit far too cheaply, and made me wonder if he'd got some inside line from scumchat.
And looking at their ISOs - and Manasi's weak (and delayed) response to my question - I'm not seeing any great reason to townread either of them, or to doubt that they might be scumbuddies.
Originally Posted by Csargo
I [Manasi], but I don't like [your vote for Sooh].
Originally Posted by Manasi
An excuse that excuses one day of a 48h phase is fine
never coming back is the issue.
K i n d a r i d i c u l o u s i m o
Also COMPLETELY not okay with a Monty lynch.
If we're lynching a low poster, it's gonna be Sooh and not Monty.
Originally Posted by Csargo
Monty def your scumbuddy huh. I see.
Originally Posted by Cuthillius
let's say we lynch someone who's at least moderately active
who'd you prefer if that were the case
Originally Posted by Manasi
not csargo
not atpg
not logic/winston [my bold, calling attention to the Player/Player construction]
not crimson
not monty in italics
Originally Posted by Cuthillius
so, like
nobody who's been on the table all day except dp?
MANASI EOD1 (excluding a few exchanges between Barto, Csargo and DP)
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
NOTE: Some last-minute flirting between Manasi and Csargo was excluded because it's just clutter at this point
Originally Posted by Manasi
Why are you [DP] scum reading champ?
Originally Posted by Dp101
The sudden jumping onto the wagon feels wrong, from him.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Sup Monty
Originally Posted by El Barto
I notice that, for the second time in the day, I have joined with Askthepizzaguy and Csargo to be third on a leading bandwaggon.
[Thanked by Csargo]
Originally Posted by Manasi
How does it feel?
Originally Posted by Dp101
Appropriately scummy I would hope.
Originally Posted by El Barto
I am not sure yet. But it is a good question, even after taking into account the age of the asker. ;)
It does, a bit [re" why is DP scumreading Champ, sea above block]. So why are you not voting for him?
Originally Posted by Dp101
I dunno. I feel that Jowy is rather scummy, but I just hate the behaviour of those on him.
Originally Posted by Dp101
Because I have one vote and many people to kill.
Originally Posted by Manasi
You know what his personality is like though. Why are you suddenly jumping on him for being exactly himself?
Originally Posted by Dp101
I never remember him just bandwagoning away.
Originally Posted by Manasi
I'm not talking about how he plays.
I'm talking about how he acts.
Originally Posted by Dp101
Well, I was talking about his play when I called him scummy.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Are you [El Barto] flirting with me?
Originally Posted by El Barto
Well, you certainly aren't jailbait now, are you?
Originally Posted by Manasi
I haven't been jailbait for a while.
Originally Posted by Dp101
This conversation scares me.
Originally Posted by Manasi
You get scared when someone mentions kissing. Relax.
Originally Posted by Csargo
Because [Champ is] scum, I've literally been saying this the entire day.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Omg ok fine I'm sorry I was just trying to get there myself
Dp101
Originally Posted by Dp101
???
Originally Posted by Csargo
Don't play with my heart Manasi pls.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Zack plz count it
Vote DP101
Too many sites too many voting formats
Originally Posted by Csargo
Vote:Dp101
huehuehue
Originally Posted by Dp101
Vote: Jowy for self-preservation.
Originally Posted by Manasi
Ugh. A colon on mobile is so hard.
Vote: dp101
Originally Posted by Manasi
Where did Barto disappear
Originally Posted by El Barto
?????? [On Manasi claiming Jowy peeked her]
Originally Posted by El Barto
I was playing videogames.
Winston: Standard Winston content, but he has seemed rather distant throughout the game. Could be deep scum, but I'm nullish on what evidence there may be. Found Logic and BSmith scummiest N3, townpoints to DP, felt novice was a good lynch for info, though IMO that D1 miller-claim interaction with Logic may negate an opposite-alignment conclusion. On the other hand there, most of his D1 ISO is above in the Logic D1 ISO I made, and it's a strong foundation for a town game. Best look has been voting Manasi D2 and early D3, and noting N3 that town-BSmith might be more hesitant to vote Pizza than he displayed in his D2 hit-and-run. Never lynch before Final 3/4.
Fredwood: A strange fellow who has been low-impact beyond giving a towny performance D2. I have found him difficult to bind to interactions, the worst thing I could find being a comment from Manasi wrt Pizza sussing.
Originally Posted by Manasi
re: fredison
I think he sounds comfortable, for whatever that's worth.
At least.
His TOAN seems rather conversational. Idk how good he is at this thing I just think he's probably okay.
On D4, he tinfoiled a Winston Logic scum team for not seeing any benefit for scum to save novice. As far as bussing and WIFOM go, he's likelier than Csargo wrt BSmith. Most significant factor, BSmith and Logic started an abortive wagon onto Csargo in late D3. Don't forget about a potential pseudo-spew connection with auto. In the simplest world though, he is just town who pushed a good case against BSmith, and nothing more.
Csargo: Odd stance on D4 Bsmith lynch, and his late conversion by the time it was foregone. Behaved and voted oddly D3. Otherwise he's played a strong game, and the evidence makes it difficult to scumread him. At this point he might only be scum with Barto, and the remnants of the Fredwood tinfoil. Barto and DP, don't tinfoil Csargo for the wrong reasons.
Barto: I was weirded out by his early insistence yesterday that novice should be lynched over BSmith. Overall I believe we have seen Barto's town play. Voted Manasi mid-day, but before the BSmith wagon. Also voted Manasi toward mid-D2 after voting Fredwood (which novice voted Barto for).
DP: He's been fairly pure lately, and it's difficult to find fault with his voting. Manasi was eager to vote him EOD1, which is arguably indicative even if Jowy was looking set to lynch. I think Pizza was correct to predict he would post himself clear by D3. Barto and Csargo, you probably don't want to lynch here.
The bottom three players there I would like to set aside for the moment, as they have some overwhelming ISOs and I don't think it would be useful for me to approach them here.
Finally, think about how many lynches are left. If Mafia kill and novice dies of poison, you're looking at three (3) standard lynches. Even if no one dies tonight, you're definitely not going to see better than 4 lynches. Factor your considerations around Logic and novice in this context. Personally, I hope you can lynch Logic while examining other angles, for maximum mileage. People need to (be made to) contribute so that we have more than the ossified tinfoils across a relatively large pool of candidates to judge from.
TLDR: If novice does die tonight and isn't scum, Logic should be your top candidate for lynch but same goes with pushing analysis and activity. Do not fail to counterfactualize Logic as a red herring.
SO LONG AND THANKS FOR ALL THE BALATEN
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
I think Logic is the lynch today, especially after what happened D3. auto after that imo. Outside of something in Logic's iso that makes it seem unlikely.
Originally Posted by Sooh
I wonder if I can make Csargo cry harder by doing everyone but his ISO.
I think Logic is the lynch today, especially after what happened D3. auto after that imo. Outside of something in Logic's iso that makes it seem unlikely.
You are advocating for my lynch, but failing to commit to it yourself.
I'll need to reread your ISO, but last I looked, you seemed like a good candidate to me.
Re: XCOM Mafia [In Play]
Originally Posted by Sooh
are people reading Auto as town?
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[Manasi], but I don't like [your vote for Sooh].
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