XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Fredwood]

I'm sad. Wish I would have seen Walrein's post last night, would have voted Fredwood.

Still wouldn't have lynched scum, but at the same time you wouldn't have lynched a useful power.

[Zack]

night's over, don't post

[Zack]

note: I accidentally overwrote this post with the final writeup. Must have clicked edit instead of quote by accident.

Csargo died and was town Advent Trooper.

Alive: auto, fred, barto, nippleman

[Zack]

You are allowed to vote for NO LYNCH today.

You can post now.

[autolycus]

Given that walrein said his power still goes off after his death and that he used it, No Lynch is probably not a good option (since, barring overlap between scum kill and his kill, we'll be at two tomorrow with no lynch). I wish he'd said who he was killing, so that we could not lynch them, since they're dead either way. I'll try to do some actual isos this evening, but for now I'll put a placeholder vote on vote:fredwood.

[Nippleman]

Given that walrein said his power still goes off after his death and that he used it, No Lynch is probably not a good option (since, barring overlap between scum kill and his kill, we'll be at two tomorrow with no lynch). I wish he'd said who he was killing, so that we could not lynch them, since they're dead either way. I'll try to do some actual isos this evening, but for now I'll put a placeholder vote on vote:fredwood.

If no one is super locked, shouldn't we just no lynch here?

[autolycus]

I don't think so, because walrein said he'd used his delayed vig and it happens despite his death.

If Walrein's vig is not the same as the scum kill, today is our last day (we will be at two players tomorrow either way).

The only way we benefit from No lynch is if No lynch causes the scum kill to be the same as Walrein's vig; otherwise, we're better off lynching.

[Nippleman]

I am not seeing where the flipped players' roles flipped, just if they were town or mafia. Am I missing a trick or something?

[autolycus]

He claimed about 30 posts ago. That being said, I think I misread his post, it looks like he didn't actually use it.

[El Barto]

30 minutes to dl

nice

hardclaim one-shot delayed vigilante, still unused. let's find a better lynch target pls

No he hasn't.

vote:Fredwood

[Nippleman]

No he hasn't.

vote:Fredwood

It's mislynch or lose, what are you doing...

GUYS UNVOTE

[Nippleman]

Oh, wait a minute. I am the onl,y other person other than Fredwood who could vote, nevermind.

[El Barto]

There is no majority vote rule in force. We can vote and unvote as many times as we like until the timer runs out.

[El Barto]

I.e. If you're from MU, there's no ‘hammer’.

[Nippleman]

Still working on my reread, I apologize. About halfway through, why is autolycus considered townier than Fred? I can't actually remember anything he did that was too crazy day 1, and he only has 3-4 more posts than myself.

[Nippleman]

I.e. If you're from MU, there's no ‘hammer’.

I am originally from Mtgs which was auto majority. MU is just after day 1, but fair enough.

[El Barto]

Why are you calling it mislynch or lose? If we mislynch then we lose.

Still working on my reread, I apologize. About halfway through, why is autolycus considered townier than Fred? I can't actually remember anything he did that was too crazy day 1, and he only has 3-4 more posts than myself.

We all have our little idiosyncrasies. Autolycus always lurks his way through games regardless of alignment, I tend to be a fluffy poster on the first one or two days of any game regardless of alignment, certain players park their vote on certain other players whenever they play in the same game, askthepizzaguy is always the mafia, etc.

Re: auto, in the last few day phases I've been trying to analyse voting patterns, which I don't usually do. See the latest (#2080), on why I thought/think auto is clear. I'll try one last version of the voting pattern analysis.

I am originally from Mtgs which was auto majority. MU is just after day 1, but fair enough.

We have over a day left. Do not despair.

Day 7 ends in:

[Nippleman]

Why are you calling it mislynch or lose? If we mislynch then we lose.

We all have our little idiosyncrasies. Autolycus always lurks his way through games regardless of alignment, I tend to be a fluffy poster on the first one or two days of any game regardless of alignment, certain players park their vote on certain other players whenever they play in the same game, askthepizzaguy is always the mafia, etc.

Re: auto, in the last few day phases I've been trying to analyse voting patterns, which I don't usually do. See the latest (#2080), on why I thought/think auto is clear. I'll try one last version of the voting pattern analysis.

We have over a day left. Do not despair.

I just grammar bombed. And I have never played on a site where people so brazenly voted out. Even without MU majority on, mislynch and lose would often lock votes. So, had a bit of a panic with two almost immediate votes.

[El Barto]

Then relax and enjoy it. :D

[El Barto]

As a very famous book once said, ‘Don't panic’. Reread the thread, challenge any assumptions.

[Zack]

Official Tally as of #2150

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Day 7 ends in:

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2 Fredwood (autolycus, El Barto)

----

Not Voting: Nippleman

Not Posting: Fredwood

----

If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

[El Barto]

These things help one think as well as pass the time.

Day 1

4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, El Barto, Champ, Dp101)

2 Csargo (novice, Jowy)
2 Dp101 (Manasi, Csargo)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ(crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)
1 Sooh (BSmith)

Night One: no kills. The target was crimson_snow apparently.

Day 2

General Hankerchief replaces Champ.

6 Askthepizzaguy (Cuthillius, Dp101, BSmith, Fredwood, novice, Manasi)
6 novice (Askthepizzaguy, Logic, Montmorency, El Barto, Csargo, crimson_snow)

2 Manasi (Sooh, Winston Hughes)

1 Csargo (GeneralHankerchief)

(regarding auto's low level of contribution, Zack threatened to have him replaced or modkilled if he didn't post and vote by the end of D3 here)

Night 2: crimson_snow is killed and revealed as town. askthepizzaguy is mysteriously returned to life.

Day 3:

Special event: GeneralHankerchief is killed by the mafia after revealing himself as the one who revived atpg. Askthepizzaguy instantly dies with him, this time for good.

At EoD:

6 Manasi (Sooh, autolycus, Winston Hughes, El Barto, novice, BSmith)

5 BSmith (Cuth, Fred, Csargo, Dp101, Monty)

1 autolycus (Manasi)
1 Csargo (Logic)

Night 3: Sooh is killed

Day 4

7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith

(Montmorency is killed and novice succumbs to poison at the end of Night Four)

Day 5

6 Logic (auto, dp101, Cuth, fred, barto, Csargo)

2 auto (winston, Logic)

(and Walrein replaces Dp101 at EoD)

Night 5: Cuthillius is killed.

Day 6

3 Walrein (autolycus, El Barto, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (Walrein)

----

Not Voting: Fredwood, Nippleman

Night 6: Csargo is killed.

[Fredwood]

Not scum, your reads are off, lynch me you lose, plain and simple. Nips slip, has me kind of leaning town, which means Auto or Bart hard bussed, auto is a big blank mark, so there you have it. I don't know if Bart is scum or not, but he's done more to make me think he's town then Auto.

[Nippleman]

I read your last analysis (thank you for posting the VCs btw). I think you are giving auto a little too much credit. He votes mafia memebers, yes, but he is also parking and in part, it goes with him being a lurker. Did he not vote novice because he is town, or because he wasn't online at the time? I can't tell when he is actually here versus here and not posting.

Parking a vote on a wolf member is also not that great, and I have gotten burned soo many times in the past where I think I have someone cleared because they parked a vote on a flipped wolf. Fredwood has a much stronger day 1/day 2 present, and I don't think every single wolf voted to save novice. It just seems silly since whenever novice would flip, that vote would immediately put anyone who voted with novice under suspicion.

[Nippleman]

Vote Autolycus

[Zack]

Official Tally as of #2155

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Day 7 ends in:

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2 Fredwood (autolycus, El Barto)

1 autolycus (Nippleman)

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Not Voting: Fredwood

[Fredwood]

Also on top of this, even from a town perspective, if Auto is town that is, we can afford to lynch him. We're in mylo now, if we mislynch here we're wrong.

If Auto does have two lives we can lynch him, confirm his role, and go into lylo tomorrow. From a mechanics standpoint it makes 0 sense to lynch me.

So Barto should realize this, and the fact that Auto suggested trying to kill him earlier in the game and not doing so now, is also confusing. If you don't think I'm town it's one thing, but it makes less sense to lynch if you're not sure.

I have a feeling anyway, the only way we get out of today without a Fred lynch loss, is an Auto lynch. Auto's not exhibited behavior that makes me feel confident that he'll ever post again, so his vote is likely not moving. Barto could move in the scenario, Barto not moving would seem woflie, it get's very wifom, because a confident Town Barto would feel confident enough to not move, a non-confident Barto or Wolf Barto would be forced to play this in the same way.

anyway

vote: Auto

Either way this won't lose us the game.

[Fredwood]

Vote: Autolycus

In case it needs to be spelled out fully.

[Zack]

Official Tally as of #2158

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Day 7 ends in:

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2 Fredwood (autolycus, El Barto)
2 autolycus (Nippleman, Fredwood)

[El Barto]

Also on top of this, even from a town perspective, if Auto is town that is, we can afford to lynch him. We're in mylo now, if we mislynch here we're wrong.

If Auto does have two lives we can lynch him, confirm his role, and go into lylo tomorrow. From a mechanics standpoint it makes 0 sense to lynch me.

So Barto should realize this, and the fact that Auto suggested trying to kill him earlier in the game and not doing so now, is also confusing. If you don't think I'm town it's one thing, but it makes less sense to lynch if you're not sure.

I have a feeling anyway, the only way we get out of today without a Fred lynch loss, is an Auto lynch. Auto's not exhibited behavior that makes me feel confident that he'll ever post again, so his vote is likely not moving. Barto could move in the scenario, Barto not moving would seem woflie, it get's very wifom, because a confident Town Barto would feel confident enough to not move, a non-confident Barto or Wolf Barto would be forced to play this in the same way.

anyway

vote: Auto

Either way this won't lose us the game.

Basically, all that you have said is invalid. That is not what Autolycus' claimed role is. A Tree Stump is supposed to be a dead player
See here his posts on D5:

I'm honestly fine with a me lynch here.

I haven't been able to be active, and I'm HardClaim: Andromedon and if I'm killed I become a Tree Stump. That's an ability that isn't verifiable without my death, and we don't lose my ability to provide analysis. Cuth poisoning me if he has more uses would not be a bad idea either.

That being said, I'm still a town lynch, so I'll vote: Logic.

In addition to continuing to look for another XCOM, I also think we need to start thinking about who might be 3rd party anti-town. I agree that I should not be around at lyol unless you're willing to just trust that I'm town to the hilt. Accordingly, I'll say flat out that cuth should poison me tonight. Since we're at even numbers in the day currently, we don't lose a day from doing that (assuming no more than one other kill per night), and it means we don't waste a day on lynching me.

If he is a town lynch, it would be bad if he were asking to be lynched when that would mean the town loses, wouldn't it? He asked to be killed, back in the day, but DP101 (later Walrein) declined to do that.