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Yeesh, Finished the ISO, you missed the quotes, it looks even worse in some cases. Though in some cases it makes some of your points a little less salient.

(Building a multi-quote, but have to do a few things, should be in an hour so)

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Askthepizzaguy- 100
Csargo- 80
Dp101- 60
crimson_snow- 70
Cuthillius- 60
El Barto- 50
Fredwood- 60
Winston- 55
Autolycus- 80 on Novice scum flip
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Monty (Leaning not scum)
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Manasi (one of Sooh and Manasi, I think)
Sooh (see above)
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Logic best of the remaining 4
Champ/GH- give space. Lynch at final 3 if alive.
Bsmith- Too lazy for a town read.
Novice- Too scummy to be town.

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I threw that together as a snapshot of my current feelings. It's not fancy and it's not in order, I just grabbed people's names from the postcount list.

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Also I'm going to throw in a Jowwy ISO as well, because so much revolves around whether or not his townie read on Jowwie was legit or not.

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Note the timestamps when you do. It's important to developing such a read.

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Isoing everyone else again.

He's on vacation. Forgot about this.

Ok, will wait until day 3 to attempt to start reading him. Still would have appreciated a check in post if he's following along.

Sorry I called you lazy.

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One of the first things that read town to me about Logic, I think it still holds up.
I liked this post from Logic, still.

Specifically his reasoning for not voting Barto. I also think Logic unvoting Winston at all is townie of him. He could easily get away with skating through the round on that vote, so this is hurdling my expectations well enough.

As I'm finding more townies and as Logic has been absent, he's slid down in town-prob. Still like him more than almost all my nulls but I'm at maybe 45 percent confident now.

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Pizza, I'm not playing against the middle, I'm being objective and keeping an open mind. Something I always (try to) do. And I always interrogate people on the slightest of things. You should know this, you saw me play this game from the GM perspective recently. I was all over the place and didn't home in on scum until LyLo. If I haven't found as many town leans as I used to, maybe people are less towny this game.

The Csargo vote was meant specifically to empower Cuth, but he didn't run with it.

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Think this was an okay spread shot from the game state at the time, even if it's on two of my townies.

Could easily vote Auto anytime d1 using such logic and not give away much of his hand if scum.

While not specific specific, this is maybe the best supported Jowy town-read given in the game. The phrasing "his scum game might well have improved" is a particularly townie thing to say.

I believe this vote and supporting argument. It's also well-argued and I think Winston is never scum with Manasi or Logic this game. And I think I'm actually leaning Winston over Logic if it ever came down to the two of them. Logic goes, Winston stays.

Solidly presented in every way and quite believable.

This is basically why Winston gets a pass from me for underachieving post-count-wise. The quality of each post is remarkable.

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So I'll start with Jowy, it's difficult not to read his posts with a towny slant now that he's flipped. But knowing that I read him almost completely null real time helped. My feelings on Jowy post flip pre-iso was that it was a bit of a low info lynch.

Here's what I would think is his best town post

Novice does an ISO of Jowy and does mention this post, but doesn't emphasize it, it's at the end of a long line of other Jowy's post. Maybe he was giving him credit for the whole performance in the thread.

The biggest issue I had with Jowy's ISO is the lack of progression, he self-clears Barto early in the phase, and then with no explanation he's okay with Barto's lynch a couple of hours later. Drastic switches like that should be explained, period, it's a huge pet peeve of mine when townies don't explain drastic shifts in their reads.

Similarly but to a less drastic degree Jowy does it with DP as well. Particularly that post I quoted earlier, was a very good insight and explanation to point out scummy behavior. But he goes to bead and wakes up and decides that DP's now 6th in order of optimal lynches. He mentions that "if we're done bullying DP' but there's no specific reason for the shift on the read. Though he does clarify it a bit later, but it has a tinge of hedging on DP.

So what do I take from this? Pretty much where I was, He's null, but now because he's got things I like and things I don't.

What does this mean in regards to Novice...From a certain perspective, one could say the read is legit.

That's his pushback on Pizza mentioning Jowy.



There's is ISO of Jowy. He repeats To the point 4 times. I'm not in a position to judge Novice's typical ISO behavior, but I've seen higher thought out effort ISO's from him in this game alone...it's why i was giving him some town cred earlier. On top of that, aside from mentioning possible pocketing, he eliminates all the warts from the ISO. There's no mention of Jowy's lack of progression on a number of his reads.

So the conclusion?

There's some room for a legit read on Jowy here. However there's just as much room for representing a town read. If he'd mentioned more of Jowy's problematic points, I'd be inclined to think it was legit. So I can't give him credit for the town read, it's almost null in a wolf or town scenario.

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This and the rest of his page 1 felt iffy to me at the time.

By now, I should have a better handle on things and value that initial impression with a lot less weight.

Second page. Tone is a bad way to read Barto I think. He's comfortable as scum I think. Comfortable enough to be difficult to catch anyway. His meta is the perfect scumminess shield.

Third page. I still have no idea if this is really a thing Barto does. It seems off, more organized and planned than I imagine his town game is.

4th page, click for context. I like this post for Barto-town specifically because of this highlighted bit.

Townie behavior in general is that he was rattling the cages of several folks with way more posts and townie-reads on them than himself. That's something you want to avoid doing as scum most of the time.

Click for context again. This looks like a genuine misread of what Csargo was saying in that post, and that's an easy mistake to make.

Probably the best post from Barto in the game. This tinfoil is so Barto-y that it defines Bartness. And him pushing it the way he's doing it feels right in his town zone. The comment about me pretending to sleep is also great. He's in a very relaxed place and just spitting truth out.

I can't explain why any better than that, why that comment is great. It's just behavior I don't imagine him doing here as scum, even if he were trying to pocket me.

Maybe he's really trying hard to pocket me.

*jumps in his pocket*

It's nice in there, though.

Townie in tone.

I shouldn't do it but I can't help it, it's too good.

This 3rd on the wagon vote way less scummy than novice's. Even with Jowy's flip of town. Click for context.

If this is scum his poker face is real good.

Note well: Champ crossposted the 4th vote. It could very well have been the third vote and Barto sniped him by seconds.

I don't have issues with either vote. I don't think Champ had to vote Jowy there if he was scum. It doesn't clear him, I just don't see this as the typical last minute scum move to cap a wagon.

Even if it was, Csargo wouldn't be the one who is scum, of the two. It could be GH-scummy "chaos chaos chaos" and get away with it maneuver, to muddy the waters, coincidentally before Champ got replaced out with the man himself. That's funny to me, in a ha-ha kind of way.

I dunno. I don't think Champ was going to get as much attention before this move as he did after it. Attention's bad, mkay?

Getting sidetracked.

Barto not clear, but looking much better than most of his accusers.

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....


Those are interesting choices. But it's 300+ posts in, and I think both of them had strong starts at least.

Cuth-y reasoning, for sure.

Yeah, I think all of this adds up. I like his strong solid town core as soon as possible in the game, which by then was fairly possible.

It looks like solving to me.

Believable.

Town-reading this post.

Novice scum kinda makes Cuth look very good for this exchange with him. Click for context. I don't think Novice-Cuth has this exchange.

Excellence.

Utterly normal response to what I said.

Not fake.

Not a scum vote.

Not fake.

I think we can stop here.

Cuth just town this game. His process is Cuthy and he's not finding scum pizza this game, as much as he'd like to. That's a nice get if it ever happens.

Sorry to disappoint, Coof.

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These two opening posts from Monty feel like signaling to the scum team that he is in fact neutral or third party.

No Lynch is not threatening to scums. It's also not very townie, although crimson also did this for reasons that look off-board-culture-y and most definitely not scum or 3p.

Monty talking about Sk/3p immediately means it's on his mind.

Why I have such a massive neutral/3p read on him, right away. Those first 2 posts.

No death last night means to me that neutral survivor or other third party hostile is likelier than straight up SK.

Under such a metric, he's gotta at least keep an eye out for scums, but his goal isn't necessarily to lynch them off. Just not die from them.

Or maybe he.... holstered as SK. That seems like a super Monty thing to do. Only Monty, really, would ever.

I might do it as SK to claim vig later, but not the way I've played this game. Not by a long shot, or a holstered one. I like to kill the scums too much, too, especially if I have a scum read and I definitely did. Fredwood would be dead today if I was either SK or vig. That seemed really decent at the time.

Monty behavior.

3p/survivor alone can have godfather powers and/or bulletproof to give them weight comparable to scum team.

As such, a good strategy for such a role would be to ask to be scanned, and hope that the mafia team gets dead or pocketed before they ever wear through the bulletproof vest.

Page 6, a lot of time has elapsed.

It sure looks like he's doing what I said he was doing since he's just saying it outright.

He'd be really on the ball if I was scum. And even though I'm not, it still sends the right signals to the right people, and this is not Monty towning it up, I don't think.

Does he have to be non-town? Can he just be weird? You bet. This is Monty we're talking about.

I wouldn't put it past him to act neutral on purpose. Seems like a Monty thing to do.

I believe he believes his read. PPSD.

If he's town and believes the scumpizza tinfoil, maybe he should be voting against me here. Just think he's a newt or playing as such.

Abrupt change of tactics.

Lol the holster comment. Bulletproof comment tho

I feel like his contributions on day 2 are standard for him, even though this is a non-standard game he's giving.

Neut or Monty townie. Monty is his own alignment, and can live in a town made of tinfoil.

Scum monty? I don't know how his behavior matches a scum game. Maybe it's that bizarre but I don't think so. I think his odds of alignment are neutral highest, 3p/sk next, townie next, mafia lowest.

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As to Novice's actual ISO.

I think the first handful of posts, even the one's quoted by Pizza are pretty NAI. His first post was in response to me, which was a stupid introduction joke post. Voting there might have appeared as bullying that early in the phase.

His interactions later with Pizza that were referenced in the ISO, and his jab about irony in multicultural settings also feel NAI, I don't think Pizza should be scum reading him for these, or even mentioning, as they clutter up the meat of Pizza's read of Novice.



This is the first part of Pizza's ISO of novice where he get's down and dirty.

The context really isn't doing it for me, I'd need a further explanation, right now it looks like he's following a thread. Logic voted for someone even though he thought it was a joke. It's not a good reason for a vote IMO, so I could see why he would bring it up, even though I wouldn't at that stage in the game. I agree he wastes a ton of time on his interrogation of Logic and those that comment on the interrogation. Don't think that's indicative as scum on it's own, maybe cumulatively.


Pizza next moves onto Novice voting for Cuth. I diverge on this because the initial push back on Cuth read genuine. I said as much at the time when I read it real time.



I think this part of his interaction with Cuth looks good for him (there's a doozy that I'll get to later), the fact that it's misinterpretation of the read hurts the town cred, but not enough to dismiss it.



The 3rd time he misunderstood, misread, or mistook something in the Cuth v Monty interaction alone. In fact Novice had to be corrected a number of times during day 1. Don't know what it means, but it's worth noting of a trend.


Where pizza says Novice is playing both sides of the fire is problematic. I think Pizza is assigning too high of a value to Novice's read of Jowy. Novice never locktowned Jowy, and I don't think he ever had a clear favorite townie. In the scenario that Novice is scum he's representing that he's open to changing his read on Jowy.

In a situation where it's Jowy v CS I can understand the CS vote. However Barto did have 2 votes, could have gone there, otherwise his reason voting for CS was very similar to your reason for voting Jowy.

I'll say the way Pizza framed his Day 2 ISO is really bad. The buddying is problematic, but it could just as easily be Pizza exploiting my fear of it as it is Novice exploiting my weakness to it.

Pizza missed the post right before he voted Barto though. My issue with his questioning of Barto, it's a question that Barto has exhibited no intention to answer with any level of sincerity. To keep belaboring the point isn't terribly productive. I don't have the issue with the vote I guess, just the line of questioning. Is that whole vote and read genuine...maybe, but it's also possible that he's a player not familiar with my meta to know that I don't tunnel, especially across multiple phases.


In fairness to him though Pizza left out this question to Manasi, which I liked.



Granted it wasn't that confrontational, it could be staged to some extent in a W/W scenario, but I still liked it.



Now onto the parts that Pizza left out of his novice ISO. He left out a bit, out of necessity. But there was some positives that were overlooked. There were many times where he said I'm going to ISO X and then came back and posted a snippet, or a confirmation about it and adjusted his reads.

The one that stood out the most was him going back to confirm Pizza's assessment of Champ's entrance to the game, though later he double backed on it and voted Champ siting I believe Jowy's and/or DP's logic about Champ having a good entrance but then bugging off afterwards. So that's the caveat to that whole behavior. There is quiet a big of white-noise questions, which I do a lot as scum to appear to the person I'm asking these questions that I'm engaging them, but for me to read that as AI is projecting because I don't have a reference point to novice.


But to me THIS looks very bad for him, worst thing I found in the ISO that I don't have an explanation for.



This reads as a genuine slip. Novice is active during this time, and even interacts with Cuth later, but avoids Cuth's statement all together. It is a bit surprising that Cuth didn't pursue this further at the time, but looking at this in the context of novice being scum, it looks rather damning.

I'm not ready to jump down on this and negate the other things about his post, I really want other's, Cuth especially about it, and why he didn't jump on it at the time to get some context.


So all that, what does it mean? Pizza definitely dinged my Town lean of novice all to hell, and I couldn't buff it out. I don't know if I'd go and see he's a scum lean, but I do think he's a lynch candidate. His flip will tell us a lot, especially about Manasi, Pizza, Bart and CS, to a lesser degree about the Champ slot, DP and Cuth.

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Sorry that took so long, in the middle of it I literally hit a bookmark and lost the whole thing...was much pain in my heart.

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Man screwed that up, that should read I don't want it to negate all my positive reads from the iso, but want other's, especially Cuth, to weigh in on it. (It being if they think it's a slip) and why Cuth didn't pursue this at the time.

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I have a hard time with you Townclearing Auto for an early joke vote lynch. I agree that Barto is cleared as far as X-COM goes if Novice flips X-COM.


Also, I'm surprised people are saying that Pizza and CS could possibly be W/W, I think the probability that both are wolf are slim, I can buy one being scum.

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Manasi iso superwall:



This is me tapping out. I lean town slightly on Manasi. I should be reading her much stronger townie though at this stage... but that might be my too high expectations of myself.

If she happened to be scum, look here for partner analysis. It spews too many people town I think, mafia will lose.

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Sanity break. I can't read any more isos or posts right now. If I can't catch scum and find town given how much info day 1-night1-day 2 has given me, scum deserve it.

It should all be there on paper unless it's Bsmith. Plus I got enough townies that if they were all correct, it should be POE'd out.

Not that confident yet to POE it out. Instead, kill Novice.

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So general question to the thread. How many have played with Pizza when he's been a LMS/SK/3rd party or whatever you called it?

Could his genuine scum hunting be genuine but still be 3rd party? Going back through the ISO he's mention 3rd party neutral more then once, so it could be said that it's on his mind subliminally. Leading town and lynching X-COM could explain both the tonal reads I had on him, the actual effort because he enjoys scumhunting and some of his problematic reads from a bad guy perspective.

I'm gonna ahead and throw that tinfoil out there. Unless he has some sort of avoidance or protection someone in that position doesn't make himself that big of a target though.

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This is me right now.

Something you gotta know about Autolycus is that the first vote he places in any round is often his last.

He doesn't do joke votes. Even if his vote is random, he's fine lynching people on that random vote.

Auto has lower value to a scum team than novice, in my opinion. Novice can push people's minds all around, Auto is just Auto.

My first vote, on d1, unlikely to lynch, always looking for something better, unless they feel like they're slipping hard. Then I push things longer than I normally would.

Novice scum is an Auto town read, solid.

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Logging in for the first time all weekend. Sorry folks, I forgot u had plans. I am caught up to #874, and my only new reads are that I think sooh and cuth might be wolves.

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I have to stay alive if third party, neut, or survivor.

Unless it's capo and I'm likely to have town defending me with some kind of protection ring, I'm going to try to look townie but not too townie.

If it's the situation where I have a ring of protection I will brutalize scums and call their mammas fat because winning that way is way more fun than doing things the timid way, and it's also smart.

If I'm 3p I generally win when scums all die, assuming this is anywhere close to end of game. Neutral survivor same thing, but I probably make townie-looking pushes midgame, not burnout levels of it d1 and d2. Expect me in the top 5 posters but not top by leaps and bounds as neut survivor. And my impact and footprint and uh... machismo? All would be a lot smaller.

Don't know what else to call it. This is my town machismo unless I had guaranteed night protection. I still randed town though.

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SK sorry. Neut and survivor is almost redundant.

I'd have definitely blasted someone last night with killing power, trying to hit a scum. I would want some kind of town cred to avoid a lynch, even if I don't claim right away, that's a hard claim that saves my ass as vig or sk.

No nightkill, practically guaranteed I'm not SK. Doctors never stop me.

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Stepping away for sanity and for food cooking / eating / relaxing.

I'll be back but not for tons of time this phase.

If you mislynch, do not mislynch inside my town core. A mislynch can be useful if it was someone we'd always have mislynched, but hit a scum today, try hard and make sure that happens.

Don't lynch Auto today. Pretty sure he gets clear with a novice flip.

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So he's gonna get that strong a read off like 5 novice posts, and actually land scum...most efficient mafia player ever.

I wouldn't put too much thought into my Tinfoil, I was just trying to think of reasons for the disparity between the two Pizza's I see, I don't think it's very likely.

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Cuth's post #874. It starts out making little sense. His 3rd and 4th paragraphs directly contradict each other.

Sooh is definitely tunneling pizza. Maybe she's roght, but that isn't what is pinging my radar, it's that her posts (all prior to #880, where I am currently reading) don't seem to be as much of a solving, but a rehash, and kinda flimsy arguments on every case she is makinh.
@novice can i get back to answer your question in #851 when I am not on a mobile device? I've looked through 3 pages and I can't find the post of yours that I am looking for. I am positive you and Dp101 are not BOTH scum, but I don't remember what post of yours convinced me of that.

Starting in on reading page 12 now...

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I'm pretty sure @Winston is town. Post #519 looks really good, even if he is pointing at me. (There, I answered you!)

The only thing I'm worried about is that I may have toed our fates together, because from an outsode perspective, the Miller claim incident could be viewed as a (bad) performance on my part to get a pair of scum townie points.

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In vino veritas.

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I don't like this post. This does not feel genuine.

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