XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Fredwood]

Yeesh, Finished the ISO, you missed the quotes, it looks even worse in some cases. Though in some cases it makes some of your points a little less salient.

(Building a multi-quote, but have to do a few things, should be in an hour so)

[Askthepizzaguy]

Askthepizzaguy- 100
Csargo- 80
Dp101- 60
crimson_snow- 70
Cuthillius- 60
El Barto- 50
Fredwood- 60
Winston- 55
Autolycus- 80 on Novice scum flip
------------------------
Monty (Leaning not scum)
------------------------
Manasi (one of Sooh and Manasi, I think)
Sooh (see above)
------------------------
Logic best of the remaining 4
Champ/GH- give space. Lynch at final 3 if alive.
Bsmith- Too lazy for a town read.
Novice- Too scummy to be town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I threw that together as a snapshot of my current feelings. It's not fancy and it's not in order, I just grabbed people's names from the postcount list.

[Fredwood]

Also I'm going to throw in a Jowwy ISO as well, because so much revolves around whether or not his townie read on Jowwie was legit or not.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also I'm going to throw in a Jowwy ISO as well, because so much revolves around whether or not his townie read on Jowwie was legit or not.

Note the timestamps when you do. It's important to developing such a read.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Isoing everyone else again.

Yeah. Sorry about lurking today. I'm on vacation through this weekend so things are a little off. That and I am never that talkative let alone on D1 when there really isn't much solid to go on other than tone and meta analysis, which absent gross incompetence usually isn't indicative. Most of my time is just going to keeping up. But at least the noise ratio is lower this game than other recent D1s. Don't expect much from me the next couple of days.

He's on vacation. Forgot about this.

Ok, will wait until day 3 to attempt to start reading him. Still would have appreciated a check in post if he's following along.

Sorry I called you lazy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I also somehow missed the "unclaim" in my first read-through.

One of the first things that read town to me about Logic, I think it still holds up.

Forum ate my post, so here is the shorter version:

-quoted post here

This pings to me as scummy. I can't put my finger on the "why"

Csargo's "I just wana eat" gif pings to me as scummy.

Dp101 isn't doing himself any favors, but I don't have him as near wolf as you guys do. I think his defensiveness is well within most the town range of most people

Crimson_snow was initially voting for no lynch. Pinged me later with this:

-quoted post here
-quoted post here

While "contrarian" isn't exactly a wolf-tell, it is a bit anti-town.

I was considering placing a vote on the next highest wagon behind DP101, then I saw it was El Barto, being voted on by Fredwood and Crimson snow, and then immediately declined. Fredwood and Crimson Snow I think are much higher wolf candidates than Barto. Not sure who I'm voting for just yet, but I am going to Unvote: Winston Hughes while I am thinking about it.

I liked this post from Logic, still.

Specifically his reasoning for not voting Barto. I also think Logic unvoting Winston at all is townie of him. He could easily get away with skating through the round on that vote, so this is hurdling my expectations well enough.

As I'm finding more townies and as Logic has been absent, he's slid down in town-prob. Still like him more than almost all my nulls but I'm at maybe 45 percent confident now.

[novice]

Pizza, I'm not playing against the middle, I'm being objective and keeping an open mind. Something I always (try to) do. And I always interrogate people on the slightest of things. You should know this, you saw me play this game from the GM perspective recently. I was all over the place and didn't home in on scum until LyLo. If I haven't found as many town leans as I used to, maybe people are less towny this game.

The Csargo vote was meant specifically to empower Cuth, but he didn't run with it.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Monty aside, I've got Manasi, Logic, and Cuth all needing close attention on my read through, plus autolycus looking a fair bit scummier than usual for his quietude, simply because he showed in his champs game that he's capable of so much more.

Think this was an okay spread shot from the game state at the time, even if it's on two of my townies.

Nor would I, but he hit ~60 posts in his one day there iirc, with plenty of good juicy content. Reverting to form here doesn't mean he's scum by any means, but it'd be an easy place to hide if he was.

Could easily vote Auto anytime d1 using such logic and not give away much of his hand if scum.

I only have a two game sample on Jowy iirc - one scum, one town (neither of which I played in, btw) - but I read him correctly in both, and this seems a lot more like the latter.

This was about a year ago, though, so his scum game might well have improved considerably in the meantime.

While not specific specific, this is maybe the best supported Jowy town-read given in the game. The phrasing "his scum game might well have improved" is a particularly townie thing to say.

Vote: Logic

The background is that he was the host of the recent game where I randed a miller-type role, in which I opened with the same hardclaim bit as I opened with here. Discussions around that claim ended up dominating the whole first day, culminating in me getting mislynched, but not before I correctly picked out several townies and scumbags based on their reactions. He and I then spent a while talking about the day's events in dead chat.

In this context, his reaction here looks bad to me. It was like he felt he needed to react in some way, but got caught between playing along with the claim and showing that he knew it wasn't for real.

Then there was Manasi's reaction, which felt like he was giving us both town credit far too cheaply, and made me wonder if he'd got some inside line from scumchat.

And looking at their ISOs - and Manasi's weak (and delayed) response to my question - I'm not seeing any great reason to townread either of them, or to doubt that they might be scumbuddies.

I believe this vote and supporting argument. It's also well-argued and I think Winston is never scum with Manasi or Logic this game. And I think I'm actually leaning Winston over Logic if it ever came down to the two of them. Logic goes, Winston stays.

I'm back and caught up, with a bottle of cognac at hand and a free pass for the morning from my good lady wife.

First take is that pizza is breaking new ground, whatever his alignment. Extreme lucidity, convincing progression, agenda either super-obvious or exceptionally well disguised. The Jowy lynch was terrible in a way that speaks of either genuine misread or remarkably brazen scumming. If this was D4, paranoia would be kicking in hard, but at this stage he looks really good, simply because I can't see why he'd play the early game this way as scum.

Second take is that my suspects from yesterday still look scummy. Neither Logic nor Manasi responded to my suspicions, and neither has broken out to give me that townie goodness I'm looking for.

Third take is that Cuth and Csargo have moved in opposite directions. I really like how Cuth has been posting. If he's faking that flow, then it's very well done. By contrast, Csargo has carried on with the same reactionary bit he started the game with, which is townie enough on the surface, but starts to look a bit weak and easy when there's more substance to engage with.

Solidly presented in every way and quite believable.

This is basically why Winston gets a pass from me for underachieving post-count-wise. The quality of each post is remarkable.

[Fredwood]

So I'll start with Jowy, it's difficult not to read his posts with a towny slant now that he's flipped. But knowing that I read him almost completely null real time helped. My feelings on Jowy post flip pre-iso was that it was a bit of a low info lynch.

Here's what I would think is his best town post

Alright that's a bad move. When you start your wagon with an excuse for when the target flips villa, it probably won't be taking off any time soon. Oh and it's suspicious.

Novice does an ISO of Jowy and does mention this post, but doesn't emphasize it, it's at the end of a long line of other Jowy's post. Maybe he was giving him credit for the whole performance in the thread.

The biggest issue I had with Jowy's ISO is the lack of progression, he self-clears Barto early in the phase, and then with no explanation he's okay with Barto's lynch a couple of hours later. Drastic switches like that should be explained, period, it's a huge pet peeve of mine when townies don't explain drastic shifts in their reads.

Similarly but to a less drastic degree Jowy does it with DP as well. Particularly that post I quoted earlier, was a very good insight and explanation to point out scummy behavior. But he goes to bead and wakes up and decides that DP's now 6th in order of optimal lynches. He mentions that "if we're done bullying DP' but there's no specific reason for the shift on the read. Though he does clarify it a bit later, but it has a tinge of hedging on DP.

So what do I take from this? Pretty much where I was, He's null, but now because he's got things I like and things I don't.

What does this mean in regards to Novice...From a certain perspective, one could say the read is legit.

For me it's that he's interacting intelligently with the thread. Maybe it shouldn't be alignment indicative, but it's giving me warm fuzzy feelings.

What's so scummy about Jowy?

That's his pushback on Pizza mentioning Jowy.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Some ISO'ing of my own then. Jowy just seems to the point, although I see now that he pocketed me nicely with his first few posts.

To the point:

Pocketing me by voting my voter:

Pocketing:

To the point:

To the point:

Mindmeld:

To the point:

These next two post are exactly what I would have been thinking and doing at that point if I has been awake. Well, except I wouldn't have picked Autolycus as an alternative.

To the point:

There's is ISO of Jowy. He repeats To the point 4 times. I'm not in a position to judge Novice's typical ISO behavior, but I've seen higher thought out effort ISO's from him in this game alone...it's why i was giving him some town cred earlier. On top of that, aside from mentioning possible pocketing, he eliminates all the warts from the ISO. There's no mention of Jowy's lack of progression on a number of his reads.

So the conclusion?

There's some room for a legit read on Jowy here. However there's just as much room for representing a town read. If he'd mentioned more of Jowy's problematic points, I'd be inclined to think it was legit. So I can't give him credit for the town read, it's almost null in a wolf or town scenario.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As much as I would enjoy roleplaying as the leader of a faction determined to cast out aliens and their evil mind-slave armies from the good old U.S. of A., no.

You were a member of the mafia last game. That's put a bit of a damper on things. Sometimes slow is good.

This and the rest of his page 1 felt iffy to me at the time.

By now, I should have a better handle on things and value that initial impression with a lot less weight.

Oh, so you are trying to be the Devon Banks to my Jack Donaghy.

Day One. Spamming is in the order of business.

Oh, I do love Eddie Izzard.

I hope you have noticed that I am voting for you to be hanged from the neck until you die.

Really? This would diminish our probability of catching any mafia or, indeed, procuring any information.

Redacted edition:

I will hazard a diagnosis of Perfect Information Syndrome.

So you aren't announcing yourself as town?

Second page. Tone is a bad way to read Barto I think. He's comfortable as scum I think. Comfortable enough to be difficult to catch anyway. His meta is the perfect scumminess shield.

Let's quasi-bookmark this for information on El Pizzahombre.

Yes? Hello there, ma'am. What a nice… hat you have.

Third page. I still have no idea if this is really a thing Barto does. It seems off, more organized and planned than I imagine his town game is.

You see…

(!)

FfoS: crimson_snow

Interesting.

I suggest that more lucid minds than mine examine a possible link between Jowy and crimson_snow and rebellious human scum.

1) I will concede that that is an ever-present possibility.
2) We can always get Csargo to bus somebody.
3) I… what? I am a civilised person who eats away from the computer.

Enough is enough.

I would have voted crimson_snow first as a matter of policy, but you do not get to do this and live.

vote: Dp101

4th page, click for context. I like this post for Barto-town specifically because of this highlighted bit.

Townie behavior in general is that he was rattling the cages of several folks with way more posts and townie-reads on them than himself. That's something you want to avoid doing as scum most of the time.

Why are you not voting for him?

Click for context again. This looks like a genuine misread of what Csargo was saying in that post, and that's an easy mistake to make.

@Askthepizzaguy: look for the proposed Jowy-crimson_snow link when you return to this forum.

He's only pretending to sleep.

Probably the best post from Barto in the game. This tinfoil is so Barto-y that it defines Bartness. And him pushing it the way he's doing it feels right in his town zone. The comment about me pretending to sleep is also great. He's in a very relaxed place and just spitting truth out.

I can't explain why any better than that, why that comment is great. It's just behavior I don't imagine him doing here as scum, even if he were trying to pocket me.

Maybe he's really trying hard to pocket me.

*jumps in his pocket*

It's nice in there, though.

First log off, then re-read the game.

Your being wrong about something proves you a townie? This is most perplexing.

Townie in tone.

I shouldn't do it but I can't help it, it's too good.

Not on my watch. vote: Jowy

Hah! I *TOLD* you people that he wasn't asleep.

It is meant to be pronounced as [t͡s], actually. It's from the Russian ‘царь’.

Pressure, sir? My vote in these games is always, by definition, a random vote.

Not even I would go to such ridiculous lengths to justify a belated OMGUS-type vote.

Are you admitting to being, as they call it, ‘high’?

Yes, you are.

This 3rd on the wagon vote way less scummy than novice's. Even with Jowy's flip of town. Click for context.

If this is scum his poker face is real good.

Note well: Champ crossposted the 4th vote. It could very well have been the third vote and Barto sniped him by seconds.

Vote: Jowy

I don't have issues with either vote. I don't think Champ had to vote Jowy there if he was scum. It doesn't clear him, I just don't see this as the typical last minute scum move to cap a wagon.

Even if it was, Csargo wouldn't be the one who is scum, of the two. It could be GH-scummy "chaos chaos chaos" and get away with it maneuver, to muddy the waters, coincidentally before Champ got replaced out with the man himself. That's funny to me, in a ha-ha kind of way.

I dunno. I don't think Champ was going to get as much attention before this move as he did after it. Attention's bad, mkay?

Getting sidetracked.

Barto not clear, but looking much better than most of his accusers.

[Askthepizzaguy]

hey fred

hey everyone else

happy day 1

....

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Jeice:
Errr, Captain... You're here.

Captain Ginyu:
Well, look what the Space-Cat regurgitated.

Goku:
Hey Gohan, hey Krillin, hey Goku.

Manasi and Champ as of this post

with a big disclaimer that those are both pretty thin

Those are interesting choices. But it's 300+ posts in, and I think both of them had strong starts at least.

vote:monty for this and followup

was not super fond, felt like took advantage of longish dp post, not hugely natural feeling

/shrug

Cuth-y reasoning, for sure.

csargo, pizza, jowy all town

cs excellent tone, reads i agree with, feels right during discussion with atpg

pizza fairly similar, agree with csargo that i disagree with pizza on barto

jowy a nice free-flowing game BUT going in the right directions, has a mildly cocksure aura to him that i like

Yeah, I think all of this adds up. I like his strong solid town core as soon as possible in the game, which by then was fairly possible.

It looks like solving to me.

HOWEVER

i also kinda think dp is town

i think he's being pushed for bad reasons, and i like his responses

he's reacting in a towny way, exactly like i'd expect, i think he'd be a bit more deflecting contrasted with some aggressive posts

here it just feels pretty natural

with that in mind i'm not putting aside the option of something like pizza scum ?maybe csargo? in there and possibly another person i townread

as of right now again i do like all of the listed

would most like to lynch monty, curious what you people, including dp, have to say about him

struggling a little to find wolves as of right now which is why i'm sideeying my townreads

but eh we'll see

Believable.

since i said that pivoted a little

i don't know exactly how to feel about him

i'm not a HUGE fan of the dp vote from him, buut at the same time it's gutsy as scum

i have no real idea how to read him in general though

so imo wait until some people around interactions with him flip

or something

and i was actually talking about csargo, not you

sorry

Town-reading this post.

except not even

it's just lazy

Novice scum kinda makes Cuth look very good for this exchange with him. Click for context. I don't think Novice-Cuth has this exchange.

noting, for the record, that novice has never played with me when i was scum

Excellence.

...

i have no idea how you reached this conclusion in any way

Utterly normal response to what I said.

this is the sequence

pizza asks people for townreads

dp gives a longish thought out reply

monty says dp town

when asked why, given the out of "tone"

he seizes it with vigor

monty usually at least provides curt replies with reasoning

here it just feels like

there was a post by town that looked towny

he said man i need to find a towny post that looked towny

so he called the guy who made said post town

and had no real justification for doing so otherwise

like legit i don't doubt that the read is... real

it just feels easy, it feels lazy, he does the "all we've got babe" thing instead of literally anything else

ech

Not fake.

vote:csargo

Not a scum vote.

reassessing, i think he's scummier

in the light of a new day, i dislike his continued push on dp

i'm not mindmelding with him as much or at all now

i think it makes sense from a perspective/gameplay pov as of right now

monty has that strike against him, but it's really not THAT much and i'd still like to hear more from him before considering lynching him in an ideal world

i also am not super fond of people's reasons for townreading csargo, pizza in particular, and think that independently he doesn't have a ton going for him aorn

Not fake.

I think we can stop here.

Cuth just town this game. His process is Cuthy and he's not finding scum pizza this game, as much as he'd like to. That's a nice get if it ever happens.

Sorry to disappoint, Coof.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I thought Advent were the new XCOM.

Vote: No Lynch

Are you claiming SK, then?

These two opening posts from Monty feel like signaling to the scum team that he is in fact neutral or third party.

No Lynch is not threatening to scums. It's also not very townie, although crimson also did this for reasons that look off-board-culture-y and most definitely not scum or 3p.

Monty talking about Sk/3p immediately means it's on his mind.

Why I have such a massive neutral/3p read on him, right away. Those first 2 posts.

No death last night means to me that neutral survivor or other third party hostile is likelier than straight up SK.

Under such a metric, he's gotta at least keep an eye out for scums, but his goal isn't necessarily to lynch them off. Just not die from them.

Or maybe he.... holstered as SK. That seems like a super Monty thing to do. Only Monty, really, would ever.

I might do it as SK to claim vig later, but not the way I've played this game. Not by a long shot, or a holstered one. I like to kill the scums too much, too, especially if I have a scum read and I definitely did. Fredwood would be dead today if I was either SK or vig. That seemed really decent at the time.

Unvote; Vote: Pizza

Should be ovbs

Monty behavior.

Scan me.

3p/survivor alone can have godfather powers and/or bulletproof to give them weight comparable to scum team.

As such, a good strategy for such a role would be to ask to be scanned, and hope that the mafia team gets dead or pocketed before they ever wear through the bulletproof vest.

Page 6, a lot of time has elapsed.

To those upset that I haven't shown myself enough, see the last game. The burst in activity around midday leaves me cold.

As of page 6, my impression is this is super-scum Pizza and DP is town. I don't want to antagonize potential scum Pizza, especially with unread content, so I've stayed away from the game for the last day.

If we have 3.5 hours, I guess I can catch up, but whatever.

It sure looks like he's doing what I said he was doing since he's just saying it outright.

He'd be really on the ball if I was scum. And even though I'm not, it still sends the right signals to the right people, and this is not Monty towning it up, I don't think.

Does he have to be non-town? Can he just be weird? You bet. This is Monty we're talking about.

I wouldn't put it past him to act neutral on purpose. Seems like a Monty thing to do.

I've had some experience over the last game, scumming with you twice, once cursing you from the dead town bench, and once working together as town.

What you looked like today is scum Pizza shock-and-awe flitting between a swarm of commitments and evaluations, with intent to confuse the landscape and prime one of any number of future gambits.

I'm reading that you have been.

I believe he believes his read. PPSD.

I don't know what I'm doing, so I won't tie it.

If he's town and believes the scumpizza tinfoil, maybe he should be voting against me here. Just think he's a newt or playing as such.

I won't tunnel you, just work with me to find scum. What do you think of DP right now?

Abrupt change of tactics.

Roleblock, bulletproof, MAFIA HOLSTER

But yeah, maybe.

Lol the holster comment. Bulletproof comment tho

I feel like his contributions on day 2 are standard for him, even though this is a non-standard game he's giving.

Neut or Monty townie. Monty is his own alignment, and can live in a town made of tinfoil.

Scum monty? I don't know how his behavior matches a scum game. Maybe it's that bizarre but I don't think so. I think his odds of alignment are neutral highest, 3p/sk next, townie next, mafia lowest.

[Fredwood]

As to Novice's actual ISO.

I think the first handful of posts, even the one's quoted by Pizza are pretty NAI. His first post was in response to me, which was a stupid introduction joke post. Voting there might have appeared as bullying that early in the phase.

His interactions later with Pizza that were referenced in the ISO, and his jab about irony in multicultural settings also feel NAI, I don't think Pizza should be scum reading him for these, or even mentioning, as they clutter up the meat of Pizza's read of Novice.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

How do Night 0's work anyway?


Yes, agreed on both counts.


And if he isn't joking, he's scum because...?

This is the first part of Pizza's ISO of novice where he get's down and dirty.

The context really isn't doing it for me, I'd need a further explanation, right now it looks like he's following a thread. Logic voted for someone even though he thought it was a joke. It's not a good reason for a vote IMO, so I could see why he would bring it up, even though I wouldn't at that stage in the game. I agree he wastes a ton of time on his interrogation of Logic and those that comment on the interrogation. Don't think that's indicative as scum on it's own, maybe cumulatively.


Pizza next moves onto Novice voting for Cuth. I diverge on this because the initial push back on Cuth read genuine. I said as much at the time when I read it real time.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Fact checking, that's not what he did, though?

He gives a reason, namely tone - which is all we've got at this point, according to him. Where's the joke?

I think this part of his interaction with Cuth looks good for him (there's a doozy that I'll get to later), the fact that it's misinterpretation of the read hurts the town cred, but not enough to dismiss it.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Thanks. And calling Monty's vote a joke was just shorthand for a vote with minimal justification?

The 3rd time he misunderstood, misread, or mistook something in the Cuth v Monty interaction alone. In fact Novice had to be corrected a number of times during day 1. Don't know what it means, but it's worth noting of a trend.


Where pizza says Novice is playing both sides of the fire is problematic. I think Pizza is assigning too high of a value to Novice's read of Jowy. Novice never locktowned Jowy, and I don't think he ever had a clear favorite townie. In the scenario that Novice is scum he's representing that he's open to changing his read on Jowy.

In a situation where it's Jowy v CS I can understand the CS vote. However Barto did have 2 votes, could have gone there, otherwise his reason voting for CS was very similar to your reason for voting Jowy.

I'll say the way Pizza framed his Day 2 ISO is really bad. The buddying is problematic, but it could just as easily be Pizza exploiting my fear of it as it is Novice exploiting my weakness to it.

Pizza missed the post right before he voted Barto though. My issue with his questioning of Barto, it's a question that Barto has exhibited no intention to answer with any level of sincerity. To keep belaboring the point isn't terribly productive. I don't have the issue with the vote I guess, just the line of questioning. Is that whole vote and read genuine...maybe, but it's also possible that he's a player not familiar with my meta to know that I don't tunnel, especially across multiple phases.


In fairness to him though Pizza left out this question to Manasi, which I liked.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

What flip did you think Pizza was waiting up for then?

Granted it wasn't that confrontational, it could be staged to some extent in a W/W scenario, but I still liked it.



Now onto the parts that Pizza left out of his novice ISO. He left out a bit, out of necessity. But there was some positives that were overlooked. There were many times where he said I'm going to ISO X and then came back and posted a snippet, or a confirmation about it and adjusted his reads.

The one that stood out the most was him going back to confirm Pizza's assessment of Champ's entrance to the game, though later he double backed on it and voted Champ siting I believe Jowy's and/or DP's logic about Champ having a good entrance but then bugging off afterwards. So that's the caveat to that whole behavior. There is quiet a big of white-noise questions, which I do a lot as scum to appear to the person I'm asking these questions that I'm engaging them, but for me to read that as AI is projecting because I don't have a reference point to novice.


But to me THIS looks very bad for him, worst thing I found in the ISO that I don't have an explanation for.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I'll probably move my vote after Cuth addresses it.
I like this post by Cuth, the rest seem well within his scum range.

noting, for the record, that novice has never played with me when i was scum

This reads as a genuine slip. Novice is active during this time, and even interacts with Cuth later, but avoids Cuth's statement all together. It is a bit surprising that Cuth didn't pursue this further at the time, but looking at this in the context of novice being scum, it looks rather damning.

I'm not ready to jump down on this and negate the other things about his post, I really want other's, Cuth especially about it, and why he didn't jump on it at the time to get some context.


So all that, what does it mean? Pizza definitely dinged my Town lean of novice all to hell, and I couldn't buff it out. I don't know if I'd go and see he's a scum lean, but I do think he's a lynch candidate. His flip will tell us a lot, especially about Manasi, Pizza, Bart and CS, to a lesser degree about the Champ slot, DP and Cuth.

[Fredwood]

Sorry that took so long, in the middle of it I literally hit a bookmark and lost the whole thing...was much pain in my heart.

[Fredwood]

But to me THIS looks very bad for him, worst thing I found in the ISO that I don't have an explanation for.

This reads as a genuine slip. Novice is active during this time, and even interacts with Cuth later, but avoids Cuth's statement all together. It is a bit surprising that Cuth didn't pursue this further at the time, but looking at this in the context of novice being scum, it looks rather damning.

I'm not ready to jump down on this and negate the other things about his post, I really want other's, Cuth especially about it, and why he didn't jump on it at the time to get some context.

Man screwed that up, that should read I don't want it to negate all my positive reads from the iso, but want other's, especially Cuth, to weigh in on it. (It being if they think it's a slip) and why Cuth didn't pursue this at the time.

[Fredwood]

Snap impression of my wall on novice?

I'm about to call for a Megazord comprised of myself, Barto, Autolycus, and Csargo. I have no idea how many power rangers there are and I had to look up what the term was for the Megazord, but if you wanna be number five let's do this thing.

I have a hard time with you Townclearing Auto for an early joke vote lynch. I agree that Barto is cleared as far as X-COM goes if Novice flips X-COM.


Also, I'm surprised people are saying that Pizza and CS could possibly be W/W, I think the probability that both are wolf are slim, I can buy one being scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Manasi iso superwall:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Are you claiming wolf, then?

Kind of like this the best out of her opening posts. Probably NAI though.

Townie tone, probably easy for Manasi to fake.

Wolf.

Snap response to dp101's opening is about the same as mine. Mindmeld.

Not really liking the tweaking out from ATPG, but that's a personal thing and not a reads thing, probably almost lock town for now.

Can be pocketing.

Hm, what else.

I think that was a really forced joke by Sooh - it just read as really awkward.

Winston's entrance towny, Logic's reaction also towny.

Manasi-Winston unlikely. Think Sooh-Manasi as a pair unlikely now that time has passed and I've thought about it more.

Waiting for novice to post himself clear, because that's basically what happened in Pokemon.

Manasi-novice possible but this may just be coincidence.

First semi-wolf read would be on Crimson, super weird posting and not a fan of what they're saying.

Surely the voting no lynch was a joke but like..

Seemed to be posted for the sake of posting.

In other news, I need a new avatar. Taking suggestions.

Manasi-crimbo unlikely.

Vote:Manasi

(gif)

Manasi-Csargo goating it up this game, if it were the case. Csargo moreso than Manasi. Unlikely to me.

You/Jowy.

Dunno about that Jowy read but I'll keep looking.

Reread is occuring. I think Novice is slightly towny, but only slightly, and I already know he's capable of that kind of thing. Manasi seems more forced than normal, and the early comment about the difference between neutral and third-party makes me think some kinda anti-town third party role. I am terrible at reading spamposters however, which is why you won't see a Champ read in here. Logic was decent once he stopped spamming, but could do with more posts. Winston objectively towny with his jokey attitude, doesn't feel forced at all. Monty is Monty, I really don't know how to read him, at all. Maybe slight town for doing the same kinda snap read on me that he does every game (or at least, it felt like a snap read last time)? But he does that as scum as well, I dunno. Everyone else needs to post more.

Manasi-dp unlikely.

This is one of the fastest org games I've ever played sos.

Anything worth catching up on? I skimmed through ATPG isos.

Surprising reaction. Kinda iffy.

What is this you're 3rd? Join me at the top.

Manasi-Csargo possible if Csargo is scum somehow here. Strategy is to deliberately blow townies off the board with WIM?

I dunno I think Manasi'd be posting even more if that were the case.

Granted, I'm pretty sure that was like 24 hours ago.

Vote: Sooh

Manasi-sooh unlikely. Manasi not going to carry it with a d1 bus. Could be high risk distancing of a less active wolf, to get as much equity out of Sooh-slot as possible. I've done that before several times, it's probably the only reason I'm even tinfoiling this a little.

...and?

i'm not lynching a one poster, and she did leave a legit excuse

Manasi-Cuth unlikely.

I'm not...sure how productive that is going to be.

I'm fully aware my own vote might not be productive either, just there is a difference between Champ's drop off and someone not really posting at all due to real life things.

Manasi-crimbo still looks unlikely.

Vote: Logic

The background is that he was the host of the recent game where I randed a miller-type role, in which I opened with the same hardclaim bit as I opened with here. Discussions around that claim ended up dominating the whole first day, culminating in me getting mislynched, but not before I correctly picked out several townies and scumbags based on their reactions. He and I then spent a while talking about the day's events in dead chat.

In this context, his reaction here looks bad to me. It was like he felt he needed to react in some way, but got caught between playing along with the claim and showing that he knew it wasn't for real.

Then there was Manasi's reaction, which felt like he was giving us both town credit far too cheaply, and made me wonder if he'd got some inside line from scumchat.

And looking at their ISOs - and Manasi's weak (and delayed) response to my question - I'm not seeing any great reason to townread either of them, or to doubt that they might be scumbuddies.

Manasi-winston unlikely.

An excuse that excuses one day of a 48h phase is fine

never coming back is the issue.

K i n d a r i d i c u l o u s i m o

Also COMPLETELY not okay with a Monty lynch.

If we're lynching a low poster, it's gonna be Sooh and not Monty.

Not very comfortable with this post.

Monty def your scumbuddy huh. I see.

Manasi-Csargo showboating if scum together.

Manasi prolly town.

El Barto ehhhhh

Manasi-Sooh can't be mutual bussing. Manasi slot was going for the town creds for bussing Sooh if Sooh-Manasi, I don't think you ever push Manasi back in such a situation. It's really bad if you somehow made it happen. You'll never explain how you lived through to final 3.

So, not pushing back on Manasi makes sense even if both are scum.

Don't think the team is Manasi-Sooh-Novice so I don't like this tinfoil. I think one at most between the two.

Sooh scummier between the two? Still need to look over Sooh again.

You know what his personality is like though. Why are you suddenly jumping on him for being exactly himself?

I think brain is tired, I'm not getting a lean one way or the other here.

Manasi should be a stronger town read from me, and it all feels like how cardboard tastes. Not sure if it's Manasi causing it, or my sucking at reading her.

I thought I completely blew away the Manasi town read last time and it was super pure. Not feeling that here.

Zack plz count it

Vote DP101

Too many sites too many voting formats

This is normal for Manasi. Voting near end of day to explicitly lynch someone is how Manasi towns.

Jowy peeked me he can't be scum.

Don't like this post for reasons already stated. Manasi addressed it, just noting it for thoroughness.

Where did Barto disappear

Manasi-barto maybe? My reads would be pretty terrible to make this happen.

I think I've now mentioned Manasi's name more than anyone else ever has combined. It's frustrating me that I don't have a stronger lean. I should have one by now.

lol atpg/crimson are just clear i cba to read that

The problem is Sooh's "Oh nice guys when you push scum on me I wanna try soooo haaarddd" sarcasm/AtE/plea is not something I see coming from a villager.

Or at least, I don't do it as a villager and I'm bad so it must be a horrible play lol.

Fun.

Feels true enough. I feel like Manasi-scum would be reacting to me by now, like someone swatting at a stinging bee.

I think town Manasi has me town and therefore I'm just invisible to her.

fzzt

But of course.

Noted.

Really? Manasi seems much more focused this game. Last game you were both quite flighty and lolcatty, not just under pressure but overall. Manasi's activity is more grounded in the game course - isn't yours as well?

Hmm. I kind of want to sheep this.


__________________________


Manasi townish with mixed feelings, but I should be doing better at town-reading her. Feels like how I felt toward Zander when he was scum.

Manasi-scum makes a ton of people look amazing though. I think several folks are not scum with Manasi.

Don't feel great about pulling the trigger on that when I have a scummier novice and many more probable options.

Yeah I would like to see Manasi's response to this.

Manasi-novice still not discounted.

My plan is to try to get a better read on nulls, primarily Manasi (though I have a feeling that might be a lost cause) and logic, which I think won't be.

Manasi-Fredwood unlikely, imo.

Holy moly Cuth, that post.

Regarding my lame defense of Jowy, I wasn't paying enough attention to see he was actually on the table for a lynch. Y'all know I'm a very jokey person in game and I thought the peek claim, however horrible misplaced and obviously fake, was a funny thing to ride out.

Mostly a joke between friends I suppose, nothing alignment indicative. I get why people are reading into that tho.

lolmafia

I feel like I'd be getting more pushback if Manasi-scum was correct. Maybe she's just good.

Sooh's iso results just seem like a lot of recap.

Where she does give reads/leans, they seem like.. hesitant, almost?

Fair.

Yes, because town me is always sure of her reads.

This is also quite true.

Vote: Sooh

just gonna keep this here from yesterday

Seems fine.

Glad to see that it didn't matter either way what I did today.

Sooh can post this thought as town easily.

You missed the questions I had in some of them then. Or is it better when it's not just a link but an actual quote? What is it you want exactly?

Best way to find scum-sooh: treat her fairly, give her space to work, take her seriously, encourage her to engage. The more she gives you the more accurate the read. Even if you suspect Sooh, draw her out and see about the depth in her thought. She will not do well with unfair/unjust suspicions as town, and especially not being ignored. Will taint your read of her.

Wait, what? You seemed very present and attentive at end of day. Here are some sample posts:

After a lot of collective hand-wringing regarding Jowy, you repeat your lame defense of him. Surely you knew he was up for a lynch?

Looks like possible distancing, or novice just scum. I can't clear Manasi based on this even if novice flips scum.

I'm back and caught up, with a bottle of cognac at hand and a free pass for the morning from my good lady wife.

First take is that pizza is breaking new ground, whatever his alignment. Extreme lucidity, convincing progression, agenda either super-obvious or exceptionally well disguised. The Jowy lynch was terrible in a way that speaks of either genuine misread or remarkably brazen scumming. If this was D4, paranoia would be kicking in hard, but at this stage he looks really good, simply because I can't see why he'd play the early game this way as scum.

Second take is that my suspects from yesterday still look scummy. Neither Logic nor Manasi responded to my suspicions, and neither has broken out to give me that townie goodness I'm looking for.

Third take is that Cuth and Csargo have moved in opposite directions. I really like how Cuth has been posting. If he's faking that flow, then it's very well done. By contrast, Csargo has carried on with the same reactionary bit he started the game with, which is townie enough on the surface, but starts to look a bit weak and easy when there's more substance to engage with.

Manasi-winston not likely still.

So, some reads cobbled together on gedit:

Manasi is posting too much fluff. See post #858!

snip

I find this line at the bottom of my text file:
Csargo-Manasi-Champ for trio of mafiosi?

Not pushing Manasi hard enough to discount distancing.

I mean if you actually wanted to lynch Dp101 you would have moved your vote. I made it pretty clear throughout D1 what I wanted, and when it became unlikely I sheeped ATPG, because I think he's town. Then I moved back because Manasi voted Dp. I dunno what to say honestly, generally I don't think, and just react. I just figured you were happy with lynching Jowy.

Manasi-Csargo goatest team of all time probably doesn't let Csargo hang with vote switches to dp and hoping for a miracle.

Too goat if so. It's a nice tinfoil and gg if that's the solve. I'm going to stick with likelier and saner scenarios.

This is me tapping out. I lean town slightly on Manasi. I should be reading her much stronger townie though at this stage... but that might be my too high expectations of myself.

If she happened to be scum, look here for partner analysis. It spews too many people town I think, mafia will lose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sanity break. I can't read any more isos or posts right now. If I can't catch scum and find town given how much info day 1-night1-day 2 has given me, scum deserve it.

It should all be there on paper unless it's Bsmith. Plus I got enough townies that if they were all correct, it should be POE'd out.

Not that confident yet to POE it out. Instead, kill Novice.

[Fredwood]

So general question to the thread. How many have played with Pizza when he's been a LMS/SK/3rd party or whatever you called it?

Could his genuine scum hunting be genuine but still be 3rd party? Going back through the ISO he's mention 3rd party neutral more then once, so it could be said that it's on his mind subliminally. Leading town and lynching X-COM could explain both the tonal reads I had on him, the actual effort because he enjoys scumhunting and some of his problematic reads from a bad guy perspective.

I'm gonna ahead and throw that tinfoil out there. Unless he has some sort of avoidance or protection someone in that position doesn't make himself that big of a target though.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is me right now.

I have a hard time with you Townclearing Auto for an early joke vote lynch. I agree that Barto is cleared as far as X-COM goes if Novice flips X-COM

Something you gotta know about Autolycus is that the first vote he places in any round is often his last.

He doesn't do joke votes. Even if his vote is random, he's fine lynching people on that random vote.

Auto has lower value to a scum team than novice, in my opinion. Novice can push people's minds all around, Auto is just Auto.

My first vote, on d1, unlikely to lynch, always looking for something better, unless they feel like they're slipping hard. Then I push things longer than I normally would.

Novice scum is an Auto town read, solid.

[Logic]

Logging in for the first time all weekend. Sorry folks, I forgot u had plans. I am caught up to #874, and my only new reads are that I think sooh and cuth might be wolves.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So general question to the thread. How many have played with Pizza when he's been a LMS/SK/3rd party or whatever you called it?

Could his genuine scum hunting be genuine but still be 3rd party? Going back through the ISO he's mention 3rd party neutral more then once, so it could be said that it's on his mind subliminally. Leading town and lynching X-COM could explain both the tonal reads I had on him, the actual effort because he enjoys scumhunting and some of his problematic reads from a bad guy perspective.

I'm gonna ahead and throw that tinfoil out there. Unless he has some sort of avoidance or protection someone in that position doesn't make himself that big of a target though.

I have to stay alive if third party, neut, or survivor.

Unless it's capo and I'm likely to have town defending me with some kind of protection ring, I'm going to try to look townie but not too townie.

If it's the situation where I have a ring of protection I will brutalize scums and call their mammas fat because winning that way is way more fun than doing things the timid way, and it's also smart.

If I'm 3p I generally win when scums all die, assuming this is anywhere close to end of game. Neutral survivor same thing, but I probably make townie-looking pushes midgame, not burnout levels of it d1 and d2. Expect me in the top 5 posters but not top by leaps and bounds as neut survivor. And my impact and footprint and uh... machismo? All would be a lot smaller.

Don't know what else to call it. This is my town machismo unless I had guaranteed night protection. I still randed town though.

[Askthepizzaguy]

SK sorry. Neut and survivor is almost redundant.

I'd have definitely blasted someone last night with killing power, trying to hit a scum. I would want some kind of town cred to avoid a lynch, even if I don't claim right away, that's a hard claim that saves my ass as vig or sk.

No nightkill, practically guaranteed I'm not SK. Doctors never stop me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Stepping away for sanity and for food cooking / eating / relaxing.

I'll be back but not for tons of time this phase.

If you mislynch, do not mislynch inside my town core. A mislynch can be useful if it was someone we'd always have mislynched, but hit a scum today, try hard and make sure that happens.

Don't lynch Auto today. Pretty sure he gets clear with a novice flip.

[Fredwood]

This is me right now.



Something you gotta know about Autolycus is that the first vote he places in any round is often his last.

He doesn't do joke votes. Even if his vote is random, he's fine lynching people on that random vote.

Auto has lower value to a scum team than novice, in my opinion. Novice can push people's minds all around, Auto is just Auto.

My first vote, on d1, unlikely to lynch, always looking for something better, unless they feel like they're slipping hard. Then I push things longer than I normally would.

Novice scum is an Auto town read, solid.

So he's gonna get that strong a read off like 5 novice posts, and actually land scum...most efficient mafia player ever.

I wouldn't put too much thought into my Tinfoil, I was just trying to think of reasons for the disparity between the two Pizza's I see, I don't think it's very likely.

[Logic]

Cuth's post #874. It starts out making little sense. His 3rd and 4th paragraphs directly contradict each other.

Sooh is definitely tunneling pizza. Maybe she's roght, but that isn't what is pinging my radar, it's that her posts (all prior to #880, where I am currently reading) don't seem to be as much of a solving, but a rehash, and kinda flimsy arguments on every case she is makinh.
@novice can i get back to answer your question in #851 when I am not on a mobile device? I've looked through 3 pages and I can't find the post of yours that I am looking for. I am positive you and Dp101 are not BOTH scum, but I don't remember what post of yours convinced me of that.

Starting in on reading page 12 now...

[Logic]

I'm pretty sure @Winston is town. Post #519 looks really good, even if he is pointing at me. (There, I answered you!)

The only thing I'm worried about is that I may have toed our fates together, because from an outsode perspective, the Miller claim incident could be viewed as a (bad) performance on my part to get a pair of scum townie points.

[Logic]

Drunk reads ftw.

In vino veritas.

[Logic]

There goes Bart, misrepresenting and conveniently leaving out contradictory data again.

You're really bad at setting up mislynches huh? Literally said I was going to focus on townclearing and not try to scumhunt.

I can tell you one person who I haven't cleared.

I feel better about Sooh, at the very least there's effort in appearing townie which could be exploited. Manasi still is a bit null but I have a feeling she's the queen of null reads. There is the push on Sooh, but the pressure isn't aggressive or confrontational enough to eliminate the possibility of a W/W scenario and just setting up a contrarian IG relationship. So not willing to extrapolate a read on the other based on one's flip.

Winston and Montgomery seem null but have context and content that's been generated, Winston seems to be more analytical of the meta but did self-clear Pizza and Cuth in a concise and specific manner, so giving him pluses.

The Monty interactions have been interesting this phase. Amusing at the very least.

I should have questions, the only ones I have are to someone I'm washing my hands of. So, I'm just kind of blankly staring at the screen currently.

I don't like this post. This does not feel genuine.