XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Cuthillius]

on that note

i think fred is a fairly solid town now

i don't think all of the angles he's pushing are correct or ideal

but he maintains a consistent tone with towny flashes in a way that would be extremely difficult as scum

he feels like he's actually looking for town, and then keeps that same feel up over a prolonged period of time

again, not about methods but more overall feel and consistency

[Logic]

After reading Pizza's summed up ISO of cuth, I feel less solid about my hesitation on cuth. Still confused by the direct contraction cuth made, but I'm giving it less weight than I previously did.

[Cuthillius]

also a few more things, before i get to the promised meat

as it were

yes, i know

but looking at this in the context of novice being scum, it looks rather damning.

have you ever heard of confirmation bias?

good

don't do it

[Cuthillius]

You missed the questions I had in some of them then. Or is it better when it's not just a link but an actual quote? What is it you want exactly?

@Logic

this is post 874

what are you talking about?

[Cuthillius]

i find it super unsettling

that pizza didn't reply to the wall i made at all

moreover, the only MENTIONS he made of it were consistently repeating that I'm wrong on him, though still town, throughout other topics, and once, said that "there was nothing to" that post

now i'm not saying it was a logical deconstruction of his posts with quotes and examples that he could really reasonably respond to in an ideal way

but

idk

maybe i'm hopelessly stuck in a tunnel on town, but I don't think so

[Cuthillius]

maybe i'm hopelessly stuck in a tunnel on town, but I don't think so

said every person hopelessly stuck in a tunnel on town ever

[Logic]

Ok Fred. Post #1034 tells me you are town, or bussing novice. The former seems far more likely, because I don't think most wolves would parrot Pizza to bus a comrade.

Note: I will probably be voting for novice by the time i am all caught up, but I want to read the whole thread first, and probably novice ISO myself. I still have a question of his his to answer, and I feel that would be the courtueos thing to do before voting for him.

[Fredwood]

also a few more things, before i get to the promised meat

as it were

yes, i know



have you ever heard of confirmation bias?

good

don't do it

I know what it is. Why I asked what your take on the interaction. During the ISO i was more likely to confirmation bias him town because he was my strongest town read at that time of pizza's post. You're saying it's NAI?

[Fredwood]

Ok Fred. Post #1034 tells me you are town, or bussing novice. The former seems far more likely, because I don't think most wolves would parrot Pizza to bus a comrade.

Note: I will probably be voting for novice by the time i am all caught up, but I want to read the whole thread first, and probably novice ISO myself. I still have a question of his his to answer, and I feel that would be the courtueos thing to do before voting for him.

Parrotting? I disagree with quite a bit of Pizza's ISO of Novice. On top of that my biggest red flag of my own ISO of novice wasn't even mentioned by Pizza in his. I still have issue with Pizza but he did make a convincing enough argument to get me re-evaluate and get more input from outside sources.

[Cuthillius]

Logic, when you have a minute free from GIF hunting, I have a question for you in post 82.

asking questions

And how did you weigh the likelihoods of scenarios 2 and 3?

following up on questions

Fact checking, that's not what he did, though?







He gives a reason, namely tone - which is all we've got at this point, according to him. Where's the joke?

following up on things, attacking me, but not continuing using that as justification for too long

Pizza's read on Champ checks out. Champ did start posting immediately and then commented on the night posting rule afterwards.

this is what makes me stop and think the most

look at this

as scum, WHAT MOTIVATION DO YOU HAVE to say that one townie's read on (probably) another townie checks out

this is just

extra points galore for novice

For me it's that he's interacting intelligently with the thread. Maybe it shouldn't be alignment indicative, but it's giving me warm fuzzy feelings.

What's so scummy about Jowy?

he defends JOWY

who was TOWN

from PIZZA

Some ISO'ing of my own then. Jowy just seems to the point, although I see now that he pocketed me nicely with his first few posts.

To the point:


Pocketing me by voting my voter:


Pocketing:


To the point:


To the point:


Mindmeld:


To the point:


These next two post are exactly what I would have been thinking and doing at that point if I has been awake. Well, except I wouldn't have picked Autolycus as an alternative.





To the point:

and then he puts in an insane amount of effort if wolf defending one towny townie from pizza

like, post after post, with ISOs

tell me the motivation for this as scum

because i am not seeing it at all

[Cuthillius]

I know what it is. Why I asked what your take on the interaction. During the ISO i was more likely to confirmation bias him town because he was my strongest town read at that time of pizza's post. You're saying it's NAI?

what?

i'm just saying that your "looking it in the light of him being scum" was unhelpful

my take on the interaction is null to towny

i don't think it was a slip, i don't think the vast majority of things that are called slips are slips, and i think that most people have an idea in their mind of "slips" because they happened to confbias when they saw a scum or two "slip"

[Fredwood]

Parrotting? I disagree with quite a bit of Pizza's ISO of Novice. On top of that my biggest red flag of my own ISO of novice wasn't even mentioned by Pizza in his. I still have issue with Pizza but he did make a convincing enough argument to get me re-evaluate and get more input from outside sources.

In fact my assessment of Pizza's ISO is pre-parroting Cuth's

[Cuthillius]

what?

i'm just saying that your "looking it in the light of him being scum" was unhelpful

my take on the interaction is null to towny

i don't think it was a slip, i don't think the vast majority of things that are called slips are slips, and i think that most people have an idea in their mind of "slips" because they happened to confbias when they saw a scum or two "slip"

switched to another computer

not to say that slips don't exist

nevertheless

that was not one, he may have misremembered or just assumed my scumrange from playing with me several times as town and hearing pizza talk about my scumrange a couple games back

i don't love it, but it's definitely outweighed by other things in his posting

[Cuthillius]

also one thing i've noticed from reskimming the game to iso novice

pizza has been setting him up as a scumread/lynch this entire game

as well as jowy, rip, and fred

they've been consistently there

my issue with that isn't having consistent scumreads, though they are unusually consistent

my issue is that i believe they're all town

anyway

for anything that's worth

[Logic]

My plan is to try to get a better read on nulls, primarily Manasi (though I have a feeling that might be a lost cause) and logic, which I think won't be.

@Fredwood
Could I get more of an explanation of this, please?

[Fredwood]

what?

i'm just saying that your "looking it in the light of him being scum" was unhelpful

my take on the interaction is null to towny

i don't think it was a slip, i don't think the vast majority of things that are called slips are slips, and i think that most people have an idea in their mind of "slips" because they happened to confbias when they saw a scum or two "slip"

He said something was in your scum range, but you point out he's never played a game with you as scum.

The interaction is concerning not 100 percent damning, and you yourself thought enough of it to make a note of it. It's why I wanted you to weigh on it specifically.

[Cuthillius]

I don't really trust Novice that much, but his process on Jowy matches what I've seen him do as town. He gives a reason or two to back off the town read, and I think he can fake all this as scum, but if he is scum he's not being caught by any of his behavior toward Jowy, I don't think. It all looks on the level, pretty much.

Pizza

talk me through what changed since this post, please

[Fredwood]

@Fredwood
Could I get more of an explanation of this, please?

What about the null read on you or the process?

[Cuthillius]

He said something was in your scum range, but you point out he's never played a game with you as scum.

The interaction is concerning not 100 percent damning, and you yourself thought enough of it to make a note of it. It's why I wanted you to weigh on it specifically.

given we've played probably about 5 times and people have talked about my scum game itt

it was more of a note than a hey i think this is particularly bad in any way

like

i see where you could come to that conclusion, but by far the easiest answer is just that either he forgot i hadn't been scum in a game with him yet or extrapolated it from my play/what he's heard

[Fredwood]

given we've played probably about 5 times and people have talked about my scum game itt

it was more of a note than a hey i think this is particularly bad in any way

like

i see where you could come to that conclusion, but by far the easiest answer is just that either he forgot i hadn't been scum in a game with him yet or extrapolated it from my play/what he's heard

Alright cool, thank you.

[Logic]

What about the null read on you or the process?

Specifically: the reason you think Manasi (would) be a lost cuase, and why I would not be.
@Cuthillius: your post was #847, not #874.

[Fredwood]

and then he puts in an insane amount of effort if wolf defending one towny townie from pizza

like, post after post, with ISOs

tell me the motivation for this as scum

because i am not seeing it at all

Are you concerned about this as a defense considering you're also suspecting Pizza?

Like this is what I keep coming back to, I can't effort clear Novice if I can't think of a reason not to effort clear Pizza.

I do agree with your other post about Pizza, and I did mention it during the night chat that it felt like he spent day 1 setting up what he thought would be easy mislynches.

[Fredwood]

Specifically: the reason you think Manasi (would) be a lost cuase, and why I would not be.
@Cuthillius: your post was #847, not #874.

Manasi, I have a feeling excels at maintaining a null persona regardless of alignment. While I have a null read on you, I don't think I won't ever get lean on you.

[Cuthillius]

Skimmed to the end, caught up to page 7.


The initial enthusiasm followed by not playing, Crimson described it, IS atypical though.

What made you come around so quickly on this by the way, in post 500 you say:
"You know, I'm actually becoming gradually mroe ok with a Champ lynch. Him just popping in really does not feel that typical of his play."


Are you saying I made a convincing case on Dp101? Where?


Agreed.


Question/analysis task for everyone, really: How did we end up lynching Jowy after Pizza repeatedly promised to vote Dp101?


Why am I the only one who engaged with Fredwood regarding his theories? I think his case on El Barto was perfectly valid, but it seems people are trying to hush it up.

again, this is another thing

he has no motivation to do this as scum

mostly the latter two bits

but he's engaging the thread, trying to get everyone involved, trying to get people to actually read and be immersed in the game

this is plainly something HE DOES NOT NEED TO DO as scum

on a more than basic level

Two townies and a town lean, nice. Waiting for people to go offline and then starting lynch wagons on them is not the best process.

reasonable point that pizza ignores

I thought Dp's posts on Jowy had a natural progression:



(In response to Jowy voting Csargo)


(In response to Champ voting Jowy)

yet again, novice defends a (imo) townie from pizza's pressure

this is a ridiculous amount of white knighting, again, and i see no motivation for it as scum

a couple could potentially be excused as relieving pressure from scum buddies and that'd account for maybe one or two of these

but he has townreads on people that i legitimately think are town and he's consistently defending them, going way above and beyond what he needs to

Yeah I would like to see Manasi's response to this.


This is strangely formulated though, what are you trying to say? It's a little late to cross-examine Jowy, and if Manasi is scum we should lynch her, right?

again, a towny mindset

he's not just AGAINST pizza, though he's been doing a lot of that by this point, but he's actually engaging with him as well, talking through things with him, following up, etc

Wait, what? You seemed very present and attentive at end of day. Here are some sample posts:


After a lot of collective hand-wringing regarding Jowy, you repeat your lame defense of him. Surely you knew he was up for a lynch?

again

following up, pushing scumreads, engaging them, asking questions, probing

[Cuthillius]

[spoiler]

talked about it a bit yesterday, liked a bit of the tonal stuff afterwards

still not sure how i feel about it

i'm at the point where i'm almost sure there's at least one scum in pizza/csargo

but i'm not quite sure there's one scum in pizza/csargo

i think IF csargo is scum there's quite a solid chance of pizza being such along with him, what with his defense and townreading of csargo being to an unusually disproportionate level compared with the rest of the game

like you look around thread and say, yo, who really thinks csargo's town

and that's mostly pizza, but then some people seem to be taking that and running with it because pizza said it

if y'know what i mean

reverse i don't think is NECESSARILY as likely

but

they COULD both be town

i'm just looking around the game nonplussed

if they ARE, then i'd be looking more at barto/sooh/manasi/auto/winston group

if they aren't everything makes more sense buuut at the same time

hrmhrmhrmhrm

i do get the sense that pizza's been misrepresenting people and cases he's talked about in ways that seem ??? as town, but

i don't KNOW the inner workings of his mind

it just seems like he's creating a framework of people and townies and scums and pushing it super aggressively

which could be fine, could be town leading, could be great

but on the whole i'm not too fond of the way he's been going about doing that or reading people to achieve said framework

yesterday when he picks up on jowy, he's all hey i think he's scummy, and then ASKS THE THREAD AT LARGE why they think jowy's town, ignores, gets any people together he can, and today makes lame excuses about "at least he feels good he lynched there"

he frames things like my colored votes in a very odd way

rather than something like "people could have gotten paranoid" he was all "that could have made me tinfoil you and something something GET LYNCHED"

it was completely blowing everything out of proportion in a way that just didn't really make sense

i think the meta arguments are wholly wifom, highly variable and undependable, and a waste of time

anyway, this is where i feel most comfortable today

vote:askthepizzaguy

[/quote]

looool

ok so

logic did you just say

that i contradicted myself in the third and fourth lines and that's what you find scummy about this?

[Cuthillius]

lolme

rip formatting

[Cuthillius]

Are you concerned about this as a defense considering you're also suspecting Pizza?

Like this is what I keep coming back to, I can't effort clear Novice if I can't think of a reason not to effort clear Pizza.

I do agree with your other post about Pizza, and I did mention it during the night chat that it felt like he spent day 1 setting up what he thought would be easy mislynches.

for the record

pizza and effort are synonymous

like

he vomits forth paragraphs as any alignment, some of them being pretty good, and just is always in thread and talking

that is what and who he is

pizza is first and foremost an actor, a personality, an entertainer

novice is a different creature

he doesn't do this just for the kicks and grandiose stage value

[Cuthillius]

anyway

didn't specificallyget to the pizza things i was asked for, will do my best later

right now gotta dash

it's been fun

[Logic]

[spoiler]

looool

ok so

logic did you just say

that i contradicted myself in the third and fourth lines and that's what you find scummy about this?[/QUOTE]

I simply don't get what you are getting at. I'm not sure if you started a case one way, and then changed your mind, or if there is something else entirely that is going over my head.

BUT...
If novice is a wolf, you are doing an awful lot of work to be defending a wolf buddy. I find it unlikely that you are both wolves.

[Logic]

looool

ok so

logic did you just say

that i contradicted myself in the third and fourth lines and that's what you find scummy about this?

I simply don't get what you are getting at. I'm not sure if you started a case one way, and then changed your mind, or if there is something else entirely that is going over my head.

BUT...
If novice is a wolf, you are doing an awful lot of work to be defending a wolf buddy. I find it unlikely that you are both wolves.