XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Mostly because it doesn't make sense. D2 he made an impassioned case against ATPG, citing his strong belief in novice's townieness as part of it. I don't think that's outside of his scum range from my experience with him. So the only saving grace would be novice flipping scum would clear him. There's a lot of stuff that just doesn't sit well with me. The fact that he apparently misread(?) the fact that his poison attempt could fail, after ATPG was lynched. His reaction after ATPG flipped. The fact that he poisoned novice, after having such a strong townread on him D2, and I don't recall him posting anything about that changing, I'd have to go back and look. There's a lot of things that seem odd with his actions this game.

I think he deserves more scrutiny if novice doesn't flip scum is all I'm saying.

I agree that some of these are weird, but is it really scummy? Sure, DP could be wrong or semi-wrong, Mafia could have access to poison solely or alongside the Town, and Cuth may have just been extra-very ballsy with claims (why claim Pizza poisoning in the first place if you knew it was false?), but right now I think even Serial Killer would be more likely for Cuth than being Mafia. In other words, this would be the case of 3 Mafia and 1 hostile 3P (with novice potentially being the extra neutral 3P).

[Dp101]

I agree, Cuth scum is basically impossible at this point imo

[Montmorency]

At any rate, don't lynch before LYLO.

[Csargo]

I agree that some of these are weird, but is it really scummy? Sure, DP could be wrong or semi-wrong, Mafia could have access to poison solely or alongside the Town, and Cuth may have just been extra-very ballsy with claims (why claim Pizza poisoning in the first place if you knew it was false?), but right now I think even Serial Killer would be more likely for Cuth than being Mafia. In other words, this would be the case of 3 Mafia and 1 hostile 3P (with novice potentially being the extra neutral 3P).

Claiming the poisoning looks bad for ATPG, which would be why he would do it, and then the subsequent backpedaling just never sat well with me. The thing that bothers me the most though is the fact he poisoned novice tbh, because the only reason to do that while townreading novice is for towncred, which I don't think town Cuth would do, or at least that's my feeling right now. If Cuth were scum I think his poison would be a one-shot thing. It's a very paranoia type of deal, because he's been genuinely townie up until this point. It's just me cycling through possibilities at this point.

[Csargo]

I wouldn't lynch Cuth in the near future, but some of his actions just don't sit well with me is all I'm saying.

[Csargo]

If Manasi-BSmith scum then Logic is highly likely scum as well, right? I would think so.

[Montmorency]

If Manasi-BSmith scum then Logic is highly likely scum as well, right? I would think so.

I guess?

2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum

In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.

[El Barto]

At any rate, don't lynch before LYLO.

Let us not be so hasty to clear him altogether.

[Zack]

Don't post. Will be home later than i expected, apologies for lateness. Day is over.

[Zack]

Day 4, Final Tally

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7 BSmith (Monty, Dp101, Logic, Fredwood, Cuth, Winston, Csargo)

1 Fredwood (auto)
1 novice (El Barto)

----

Not Voting: novice

Not Posting: BSmith

----

Sorry, had some personal stuff I needed to take care of. Update coming now.

[Zack]

End of Day 4.


BSmith was lynched in a close one.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

BSmith was a Psi Operative!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

He was mafia!

-------

It is now Night Four.

Deadline for night orders in:

-------

Living Players: 10

@autolycus
@Csargo
@Cuthillius
@Dp101
@El Barto
@Fredwood
@Logic
@Montmorency
@novice -- POISONED!
@Winston Hughes

------

Dead Players: 7

Jowy - Faceless
crimson_snow - Muton
Askthepizzaguy - Sectoid
GeneralHankerchief - Sectoid
Manasi - Grenadier
Sooh - ADVENT Trooper
BSmith - Psi Operative

[Zack]

You can post and stuff now.

[Dp101]

Aaaaand rip my predictions, I was not expecting the fifth class to appear, given that it has to be unlocked via tech rather than being available at the start like all the rest of the classes. I don't feel confident any more in trying to guess at the scum roles.

[El Barto]

Barto, Bsmith flipping scum clears Cuth better than novice flipping scum.

Why don't we flip BSmith today, and see if novice flips tonight? He's publicly poisoned!

Claims, content, spew: everything right now points to Bsmith now, novice (if necessary) later.

I went over this during N1, but essentially, we probably killed either a roleblocker or strongman, the Specialist will probably have a doctoring or rolecop ability, Sharpshooter might be vig or tracker, and Ranger was almost certainly the dayvig.

I don't see any Psi-Ops soldiers there.

[El Barto]

Aaaaand rip my predictions, I was not expecting the fifth class to appear, given that it has to be unlocked via tech rather than being available at the start like all the rest of the classes. I don't feel confident any more in trying to guess at the scum roles.

x-post!

See, I was right. Zack is the type of host who feels that spreadsheets are a bane.

[Montmorency]

Cuth lock town

Aaaaand rip my predictions, I was not expecting the fifth class to appear, given that it has to be unlocked via tech rather than being available at the start like all the rest of the classes. I don't feel confident any more in trying to guess at the scum roles.

Explain plz

[El Barto]

See #1904, Monty.

[Csargo]

I'd say Fred/Cuth are clear after that flip.

[Dp101]

Explain plz

There are 4 basic classes in XCOM 2, Grenadier, Sharpshooter, Ranger, and Specialist. However, once you have researched the right technologies, you unlock a fifth, the psi-operative, which you can turn rookies into via a special building. I discounted them as a role because it would make more sense for the 4 regular classes to be represented, since 4 is a not-unusual size for a scum team. Apparently I was wrong, and we could be dealing with any number. I refuse to consider 5 scum.

[El Barto]

I was about to type in an explanation but Dp101 beat me to it.

Remember, you owe me novice's lynch if he isn't dead by SoD5.

[Montmorency]

I'd say Fred/Cuth are clear after that flip.

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.

There are 4 basic classes in XCOM 2, Grenadier, Sharpshooter, Ranger, and Specialist. However, once you have researched the right technologies, you unlock a fifth, the psi-operative, which you can turn rookies into via a special building. I discounted them as a role because it would make more sense for the 4 regular classes to be represented, since 4 is a not-unusual size for a scum team. Apparently I was wrong, and we could be dealing with any number. I refuse to consider 5 scum.

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

[Montmorency]

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.

I mean though, especially - wouldn't Mafia have an incentive to cure third-party novice just to buy one more mislynch? Oh shoite

[Dp101]

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

Would not account for this. Only rookies can be turned into psi-ops, once a rookie promotes they are locked into whichever class they get assigned to.

[El Barto]

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.

There is unnecessary wine in front of you, Monty.

Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

Remember the commandment: Thou shall not metagame in vain.

[Csargo]

While that is my original speculation, at this point I'm tinfoiling whether one or both of you or Fred set up BSmith yesterday as an alt solely for the purpose of making yourself/selves look good in either flip, to buy you just enough time to slip through the final 3 or so rounds.

Then again, at that point I guess you could claim I'm doing the same.



Is it worth considering that Zack had the mechanic for one of the original classes leveling up through night actions or some special event?

I mean there's bussers on one/both of the wagons, but I don't think you throw another scum up for the lynch in that situation I wouldn't think. If you're gonna to do that, then I don't think you can clear Cuth either. Logic is almost certainly scum at this point imo, so that leaves one busser on the two wagons.

[Csargo]

Do I get to be cleared because BSmith tried to cfd me?

[Csargo]

Between Csargo and novice, I don't think the two could be partners based on D1 vote distribution (especially given the Jowy wagon looks to have been all town), but it is my impression that the two have tended to avoid each other. Is that wrong?

BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS

I just want to summarize some of the thoughts I've put out tonight for D4. What have my theories been concerned with?

Manasi is scum. Cuth, Sooh, DP, and then Auto/Barto look good and don't fit easily into the potential teams we are looking at.

Of Logic Winston novice BSmith Csargo Fredwood let's say 3 remaining scum. I haven't wanted to think too hard in terms of Logic and Winston specifically, so for now leave them as wildcards. Look at the remaining 4, the wagon-candidates novice and Bsmith, and the two players Csargo & Fredwood, who are linked by the formation of the BSmith counter to Manasi D3 as well as having looked pretty town overall (but Csargo declining D3).

The crucial question has been, were BSmith and novice both scum wagons? Possibilities:

1. Novice is town and BSmith is town

In this case, Fredwood starting the Bsmith wagon and/or Csargo thirding it were meant to dilute the Manasi wagon and get someone other than Manasi lynched. Given the BSmith wagon progression, if either Csargo or Fredwood fli[s scum, the other is more likely to be scum. Not quite a package deal, but a significant factor. Winston could conceivably be a partner here, but Logic is more likely. So, most likely team Fred-Csargo-Logic(-Manasi). I don't really like this scenario among the options, and not just because Logic in turn tried to form a Csargo counterwagon EOD. This scenario then leaves open tinfoil on DP or Barto additionally, making it the most open-ended.

With the following scenarios, a vig on either novice or Bsmith (but especially BSmith) is enormously helpful.

2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum

In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.

3. Novice is scum and BSmith is town

In this case, the Fredwood-Csargo connection and malicious formation of Bsmith wagon are reprised as considerations. The difference with Scenario 1 is that Fred and Csargo are even more likely to be paired, and Cuth/DP look worse while Logic may fit a bit less well as partner.



4. The centerpiece: Novice is scum and BSmith is scum

This is my preferred scenario, because it preserves the people I have liked and makes for the simplest game. Here, Csargo and Fred are genuine townies just making another good case because no way scum compromise a third partner when two are already leading wagons. Assuming after Manasi-novice-BSmith are eliminated that there is one partner left, I would bet on auto just for lack of skin and for taking novice as still likely town D3.

Just for reference.

[Csargo]

It seems likely novice/Logic are both scum, or at least one of them. They've both sort of disappeared from the thread.

[Montmorency]

It seems likely novice/Logic are both scum, or at least one of them. They've both sort of disappeared from the thread.

Let's say Logic is scum and novice isn't, or not aligned.

Who's the last baddy?

[Dp101]

So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston

Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.

Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.