XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Csargo]

Between Csargo and novice, I don't think the two could be partners based on D1 vote distribution (especially given the Jowy wagon looks to have been all town), but it is my impression that the two have tended to avoid each other. Is that wrong?

BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS

I just want to summarize some of the thoughts I've put out tonight for D4. What have my theories been concerned with?

Manasi is scum. Cuth, Sooh, DP, and then Auto/Barto look good and don't fit easily into the potential teams we are looking at.

Of Logic Winston novice BSmith Csargo Fredwood let's say 3 remaining scum. I haven't wanted to think too hard in terms of Logic and Winston specifically, so for now leave them as wildcards. Look at the remaining 4, the wagon-candidates novice and Bsmith, and the two players Csargo & Fredwood, who are linked by the formation of the BSmith counter to Manasi D3 as well as having looked pretty town overall (but Csargo declining D3).

The crucial question has been, were BSmith and novice both scum wagons? Possibilities:

1. Novice is town and BSmith is town

In this case, Fredwood starting the Bsmith wagon and/or Csargo thirding it were meant to dilute the Manasi wagon and get someone other than Manasi lynched. Given the BSmith wagon progression, if either Csargo or Fredwood fli[s scum, the other is more likely to be scum. Not quite a package deal, but a significant factor. Winston could conceivably be a partner here, but Logic is more likely. So, most likely team Fred-Csargo-Logic(-Manasi). I don't really like this scenario among the options, and not just because Logic in turn tried to form a Csargo counterwagon EOD. This scenario then leaves open tinfoil on DP or Barto additionally, making it the most open-ended.

With the following scenarios, a vig on either novice or Bsmith (but especially BSmith) is enormously helpful.

2. Novice is town and BSmith is scum

In this case Fredwood and Csargo are essentially cleared, with over-points for Cuth and Sooh. Logic and I look worst. In this case Logic is almost certainly scum, and the third partner is a tinfoil among auto/DP/Barto/Winston. This scenario is potentially even more dangerous than one in which both wagons are town.

3. Novice is scum and BSmith is town

In this case, the Fredwood-Csargo connection and malicious formation of Bsmith wagon are reprised as considerations. The difference with Scenario 1 is that Fred and Csargo are even more likely to be paired, and Cuth/DP look worse while Logic may fit a bit less well as partner.



4. The centerpiece: Novice is scum and BSmith is scum

This is my preferred scenario, because it preserves the people I have liked and makes for the simplest game. Here, Csargo and Fred are genuine townies just making another good case because no way scum compromise a third partner when two are already leading wagons. Assuming after Manasi-novice-BSmith are eliminated that there is one partner left, I would bet on auto just for lack of skin and for taking novice as still likely town D3.

Just for reference.

[Csargo]

It seems likely novice/Logic are both scum, or at least one of them. They've both sort of disappeared from the thread.

[Montmorency]

It seems likely novice/Logic are both scum, or at least one of them. They've both sort of disappeared from the thread.

Let's say Logic is scum and novice isn't, or not aligned.

Who's the last baddy?

[Dp101]

So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston

Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.

Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.

[Csargo]

lol

[Dp101]

lol

If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?

[Csargo]

If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?

I don't know why it would matter what novice flips. He's either 3rd P or scum either way doesn't matter I don't think.

[Csargo]

So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston

Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.

Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.

Askthepizzaguy - super town duh
autolycus - meh
BSmith - scummy
Csargo - super town
Cuthillius - slight town
Dp101 - kinda town
El Barto - gutread kinda scummy?
Fredwood - null/slight town
GeneralHankerchief - returned pizza, prolly town
Logic - kinda scummy
Manasi - scummy
Montmorency - null/kinda town
novice - scummy
Sooh - kinda town
Winston Hughes - town

These are my vague thoughts before I have to go to work. GH/Barto are up in the air imo, I don't feel great about those. Logic/BSmith also sort of idk, need to look at Logic's iso again. BSmith is meh.

I don't understand why you have Barto and auto clear. Especially not auto I don't think, unless there's something I'm missing?

[Dp101]

I don't understand why you have Barto and auto clear. Especially not auto I don't think, unless there's something I'm missing?

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

[Fredwood]

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

The only issue I have with Auto rn, is that he voted me in a situation where it was consensus we would vote BSmith, as a way to clear BSmith...that may be a tad personal from my point of view, and I think Auto's is cleared depending if Novice is scum. I think he's definitely in a higher tier then other non-clears though.

[Csargo]

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

Her basic stance was he had basically done nothing.

Okay anyway.

How the are people reading Auto as town?

All two of his posts were him sheeping (now dead confirmed villagers) and doing ~nothing else to help himself.

He somehow had an independent scum read on DP who is so far down everyone's lists it's insane.


I'm just shocked he only has two relevant posts in the game.

How is this okay?

Vote: Auto

She basically said the same thing about BSmith here.

I think there have been two people in this game who have town read me.

Good work, you guys.



People just seem comfortable in their POE and I'm gonna be at work/in a car until EOD.

I do still think that people are just overlooking auto which really bugs me.

I have maybe read one BSmith post but I'd go for them over me if it came to it.



I don't think Sooh has been posting better but I also don't think she's getting lynched in any world today so rip.


Sooh, what were the questions I didn't respond to?

So I wouldn't necessarily clear auto for that, but he looks good all things considered. He needs to step it up though, because we're in mid-late game and he's posted a handful of times, which is unacceptable.

[El Barto]

So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston

Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.

Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.

Monty pushed for the BSmith lynch when it would have been quite safe to sheep me for the novice lynch and give BSmith a pass (notice that I had not cleared him, myself, but he wasn't where I was looking the last time I gave reads on all the living players a phase earlier).
Once it became obvious that BSmith was going to swing everybody piled on him, except me and autolycus (plus novice and BSmith who activated antispew mode).

[El Barto]

Re: #1981, that's an explanation on why Monty was already cleared by then, even if he's (obviously) cleared by the nightkill.

[Csargo]

What are you getting at Barto?

[Csargo]

Let's say Logic is scum and novice isn't, or not aligned.

Who's the last baddy?

I'd probably lean you being scum if that's the case. Potentially Dp. I feel if Logic is scum and novice isn't, I think last scum is probably on BSmith wagon. Of the other wagon auto or Barto.

[Montmorency]

So, clear people: Cuth, Me (imo), Barto, Fred, Auto, Winston

Not clear: Monty, Csargo, Novice, Logic.

Is there anything clearing Monty and Csargo that I've missed? I feel that both of them have had tonnes of content, but I haven't been able to see clear towny intent from either of them.

I killed BSmith when no one else wanted to.

Scummy thing to say.

Scummy to clear Fred, auto, and Winston.

If you are referring to Monty's analysis, last time I checked you are only clear if Novice is town, no?

Wrong. If novice is scum, Csargo looks even better.

Scummy thing to say.

Auto was spewed by manasi, pretty hard I thought. Barto has been putting in his towniest effort that I can remember, and I think he was also cleared by the manasi lynch iirc, I might have to reread.

As I said, I don't think we should take that spew too far. Manasi could have been misdirecting.

I'd probably lean you being scum if that's the case. Potentially Dp. I feel if Logic is scum and novice isn't, I think last scum is probably on BSmith wagon. Of the other wagon auto or Barto.

Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.

You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.

Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.

[Csargo]

Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.

You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.

Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.

At this point it doesn't matter who was on the wagons, because someone was bussing clearly. There's not enough on auto to make a decent read. I'm assuming you're not townreading me either. Where did you get Fred/Cuth, I never said either in that post? novice flip gives us good information, and Logic seems lock scum at this point, so all of this is conjecture and feels atm. Not sure why you're getting so bent out of shape about it.

[Montmorency]

wHO'S getting bent? Who's out of shape? Not me!

[Csargo]

I killed BSmith when no one else wanted to.

Scummy thing to say.

Scummy to clear Fred, auto, and Winston.



Wrong. If novice is scum, Csargo looks even better.

Scummy thing to say.



As I said, I don't think we should take that spew too far. Manasi could have been misdirecting.



Me? I'm the towniest guy here. Have you forgotten everything I've done. Maybe you and DP have been partners all along.

You're even posting an old reads post from the beginning of D3, and there you have me light town. If you are scumreading me more after D3 and D4, that's just nutty.

Auto was on the Manasi wagon. So DP, Monty, auto, Barto, or Fred/Cuth are scum? That's bad stuff bro.

Also find this hilarious tbh.

What would be your PoE if Logic is scum and novice is not?

[Montmorency]

Also find this hilarious tbh.

What would be your PoE if Logic is scum and novice is not?

What's so funny?

I would start by looking at auto.