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Thread: Trump v Kim

  1. #31
    Mr Self Important Forum Administrator Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Nobody has been willing to pay the blood price to stop them 'blades. We just keep hoping they'll implode.
    I saw someone bragging how the USA would rolferstomp them within days, unlikely, considering we are still dealing with Afghanistan, but the fact North Korea would not shed tears as they rain down lead upon civilians in South Korea and Japan in the process of being invaded.
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  2. #32
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    I saw someone bragging how the USA would rolferstomp them within days, unlikely, considering we are still dealing with Afghanistan, but the fact North Korea would not shed tears as they rain down lead upon civilians in South Korea and Japan in the process of being invaded.
    I didn't say the blood price would mostly be paid by yanks. We are sentimental enough to actually worry about killing our allies.

    Now, a proper total war attitude would be to LET the Allied army get hammered while positioning yourself for a smashing win against the weakened opponent shortly after the "heroic death" placard pops up on your allies' general.
    Last edited by Seamus Fermanagh; 09-04-2017 at 14:33.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  3. #33
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    I'm sure the best response is yet another round of sanctions!
    It will heal nothing unless coupled with grave concern expressions.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  4. #34
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    I'm sure the best response is yet another round of sanctions!
    Tell you what: In the event of conflict, you get to go in first and show everyone how it's done.
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  5. #35
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    It will heal nothing unless coupled with grave concern expressions.
    Okay, I will admit this made me chuckle.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  6. #36

    Default Re: Trump Thread


    Wooooo!!!

  7. #37

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    https://www.gq.com/story/kim-jong-na...-assassination
    Nam explained, “Pyongyang wanted to horrify the rest of the world by releasing a chemical weapon at an airport.” By unleashing such weaponry in a place symbolically shared by the global community—an international airport—North Korea was warning everyone not to cross it. As Nam concluded, “Jong-un wants to reign a long time and negotiate as a superpower. The only way to do that is to keep the world in fear of his weapons. He has a grand design, and this is part of it.”

    In the end, Pyongyang suffered no significant consequences from the assassination. The people on death row for the murder are two Southeast Asian women, whom Nam believes are not guilty.
    Wooooo!!!

  8. #38

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Wooooo!!!

  9. #39
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Glad he's regained consciousnesses. Curious as to his story, a very dangerous way to cross the border, he's very lucky to be alive.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKBN1DM07E

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  10. #40

    Default Re: Trump Thread



    https://www.yahoo.com/news/expert-no...021500487.html
    Expert on North Korea's New Hwasong-15 ICBM: "You Cannot Stop This Thing"

    “Missile defense will never provide an impenetrable shield and steps to improve and expand defenses will prompt adversaries to take steps to counter them..."

    Expert on North Korea's New Hwasong-15 ICBM: "You Cannot Stop This Thing"

    The United States likely does not have an effective means to counter*North Korea’s*massive new*Hwasong-15*(HS-15) road mobile intercontinental ballistic missile according to analysts. The missile is so large that it could carry a multitude of decoys and countermeasures. It might even be able to carry multiple independently*targetable*reentry vehicles (MIRVs) in the future.

    “This missile potentially has enough throw weight to carry multiple warheads plus decoys, chaff, jammers and other countermeasures to defeat any known missile defense system,” arms-control expert and president of the*Ploughshares*Fund Joseph*Cirincione*told the*National Interest.

    “It could overwhelm, fool and blind the radars, sensors and kill vehicles. You cannot stop this thing.”

    Kingston*Reif, director for disarmament and threat-reduction policy at the Arms Control Association, agreed with*Cirincione’s*assessment.

    “Video and photographs of the*HS-15*released by the North Korean government indicate that it is more than large enough to carry decoys/countermeasures that would be designed to put further strain on the ground based midcourse defense (GMD) system,” Reif told*The National Interest.

    “The missile might even be big enough to accommodate multiple RVs [reentry vehicles] down the line, if North Korea could develop compact RVs that are compact enough.”

    Moreover, the United States’ Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) is not likely to be particularly effective against the North Korean missile.

    “The system is garbage,” Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, bluntly told*The National Interest.

    “It is intended to deal with a threat like this, but the test record stinks and the payload is roomy enough that we need to think worry about countermeasures.”

    Missile expert Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told*The National Interest that policymakers cannot count on the GMD to protect major population centers from a North Korean missile.

    “I wouldn’t bet New York on GMD working,” Narang*said.

    Reif explained the fundamental problem with the GMD system. “According to the Defense Department’s independent testing office, GMD has ‘demonstrated capability’ to defend the U.S. homeland against a small number of simple, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threats that employ ‘simple countermeasures,’” Reif said.

    “It's not clear how DoD defines ‘simple countermeasures.’ The May 30 test of the GMD system against an ICBM target reportedly included simple countermeasures, but an analysis of the information on the test released by DoD appear to indicate that the decoy(s) used in the test had different brightness levels than the actual target.”

    Moreover, North Korea might not be using simple decoys—and the GMD has never been tested against more complex countermeasures.

    “We do know that the system has never been tested against ‘complex countermeasures,’ which DoD defines as ‘Use of target dynamics and penetration aids,’” Reif said.

    “Are such countermeasures beyond the capability of North Korea to develop? I highly doubt it.”

    Moreover, the North Koreans—despite the wishful thinking of certain commentators—are not stupid. Pyongyang knows exactly how to exploit the weaknesses of the GMD.

    “The fact that North Korea tested the HS-15 at night would pose additional challenges to our defenses,” Reif said.

    “First, testing the ability to load and launch with little warning would stress our ability to get an early track on the missile and its trajectory. Second, the GMD system has never been successfully intercept tested at night. In fact, there has been only one intercept test that has*taken place*at night.”

    Indeed, the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency seems to take pains to make sure that all of its tests take place where the Sun offers some level of illumination.

    “All of the 10 successful intercept tests of the system took place with the target directly illuminated by the sun,” Reif said.

    “There's a reason for this. The sun's rays help to ‘brighten’ the RV and possible decoys/countermeasures for the GMD system's infrared kill vehicle.”

    The Pentagon states that the GMD does not rely on the sun, but there are indications that darkness poses challenges for the interceptors’ electro-optical sensors.

    “The Missile Defense Agency argues that the system does not rely on the sun's rays and thus the time of the test would not be a factor,” Reif said.

    “But the dynamics of a nighttime intercept could cause problems such as by confusing the kill vehicle. The signature of a target at night presents a greater challenge than has been demonstrated through flight-testing to date. All of which means we should do more testing of the GMD system under more realistic and/or expected conditions.”

    The GMD is not entirely useless however. Under perfect conditions—and if North Korea or another adversary gave some sort of advanced notice that it might launch an ICBM—the GMD offers some level of protection.

    “We may be able to intercept a relatively small number of unsophisticated missiles under favorable conditions but a determined adversary—which North Korea is—is unlikely to present us with such a scenario,” Reif said.

    “Missile defense will never provide an impenetrable shield and steps to improve and expand defenses will prompt adversaries to take steps to counter them, which is what North Korea is doing. Missile defense has a role to play as part of a comprehensive effort to counter the North Korean threat but it's a limited one and its capabilities are often vastly overstated.”

    However, even reaching an imperfect level of defense would require realistic testing under real operational conditions. Despite the Pentagon’s assertion to the contrary, that has not happened. Right now, the GMD’s chances of success against the*HS-15*are more a matter of prayers than science.

    “Overall, flight intercept testing of the system has not demonstrated that GMD is capable of reliably defense the U.S. homeland against even a limited threat,” Reif said.

    “The current ‘shot doctrine’ would be to fire four interceptors at each incoming missile and then... Cross our fingers.”
    Wooooo!!!

  11. #41

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    The only real defence against ICBM's still rests on the hope that they will not be used.
    Everything beyond that is so much varnish.
    Ja-mata TosaInu

  12. #42
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan View Post
    [video=youtube;Wl5HBGf1GQU]"You cannot stop this thing.
    You can atomize the launch point.
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  13. #43
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Defenses against ICBM reentry vehicles have been researched for years. The Aegis system can track them. Other systems can track them. They are not robust platforms (cannot be where payload is so critical). Hitting a bullet with a bullet is not an impossible task, only difficult.

    If you can see it, you can hit it. If you hit it, you can kill it.


    The old mutually assured destruction deterrence doctrine was from a time when they could not really see them well enough to shoot at them. Moreover, when the potential for thousands of targets simultaneously existed. That is not the current threat environment.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  14. #44
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Defenses against ICBM reentry vehicles have been researched for years. The Aegis system can track them. Other systems can track them. They are not robust platforms (cannot be where payload is so critical). Hitting a bullet with a bullet is not an impossible task, only difficult.

    If you can see it, you can hit it. If you hit it, you can kill it.


    The old mutually assured destruction deterrence doctrine was from a time when they could not really see them well enough to shoot at them. Moreover, when the potential for thousands of targets simultaneously existed. That is not the current threat environment.
    I'm assuming that the problem lies in the decoys. It's really nice if you can see 2000 targets coming down (only 20 of which might be real and dangerous) and have 200 missiles in the area to shoot them down. Those numbers might even be generous for the defenders, but I'm not a missile defense expert. And then there could be things like them exploding in the atmosphere if they sense a missile coming close, creating an EMP or whatever that still does a lot of damage. I'm assuming a bit here, but while I generally agree that something could be done, perhaps reentry is a bit late to see and hit them. Then again the start phase is even harder due to time constraints. You'd need weapons in space, which is another pandora's box of sorts.


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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    North Korea has already demonstrated it can fire missiles into orbit. Having one explode and throwing vast clouds of debris everywhere would wreck many sensitive satellites. This along with decoys would make hitting a bullet surrounded by thousands of other bullets in thick fog which has been fired at short notice against an unknown target.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  16. #46
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Thinking of this more abstractly might be helpful. This is an example of a technological race. Unless theoretical or practical physical limits are hit during the development of more advanced technology, it is entirely possible for a more resourceful country to pull far ahead of a less resourceful one in the race.

    On the topic of decoys more specifically, any decoy will per definition differ from the target nuclear weapon in some way. Can you use any such distinct property to tell apart your target from the decoys? Possibly; if your target is the only thing that is radioactive, a relevant sensor might be able detect this directly or indirectly via the electromagnetic spectrum.

    Also, earth-observing satellites need not orbit the Earth, they may remain in a Lagrange point (like DSCOVR), orbit the Moon or similar.

    I would say it is plausible for a country like the US to stay adequately ahead in such a race with North Korea, until (presumably) its regime collapses at some point in the, potentially distant, future. It may require a lot of resources dedicated to shield systems, however.
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  17. #47
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    I'm assuming that the problem lies in the decoys. It's really nice if you can see 2000 targets coming down (only 20 of which might be real and dangerous) and have 200 missiles in the area to shoot them down. Those numbers might even be generous for the defenders, but I'm not a missile defense expert. And then there could be things like them exploding in the atmosphere if they sense a missile coming close, creating an EMP or whatever that still does a lot of damage. I'm assuming a bit here, but while I generally agree that something could be done, perhaps reentry is a bit late to see and hit them. Then again the start phase is even harder due to time constraints. You'd need weapons in space, which is another pandora's box of sorts.
    Re-entry phase interception is viable only with a relatively limited number of targets, I concur. This limited character would be true of an NK attack, however. Unless and until the NK's build up a force capable of lobbing hundreds of warheads and even more decoys at the same time and basic target window.

    This presumes that there are enough resources to pre-position ABM systems in the appropriate target spots. Re-entry phase interception would not be workable if out of position.


    The better choice WOULD be a boost phase intercept, with the ABMs striking downward from satellite launch platforms prior to burnout and warhead separation (once they develop MIRV capability). This approach would, of course, mean that a spaced base system would need to be in place in advance of such an attack and such a system would be politically problematic given the loose definition of WMDs (the deployment of which to orbit is prohibited by the Space Treaty).

    I'm hopeful that our Vandenberg shuttles have been deploying a robust orbital ABM system for some time....but I have heard no such rumors.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  18. #48
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Thinking of this more abstractly might be helpful. This is an example of a technological race. Unless theoretical or practical physical limits are hit during the development of more advanced technology, it is entirely possible for a more resourceful country to pull far ahead of a less resourceful one in the race.

    On the topic of decoys more specifically, any decoy will per definition differ from the target nuclear weapon in some way. Can you use any such distinct property to tell apart your target from the decoys? Possibly; if your target is the only thing that is radioactive, a relevant sensor might be able detect this directly or indirectly via the electromagnetic spectrum.
    Clearly you'd be an invaluable employee for a US defense contractor as you solved all their issues in a few sentences. I suggest you apply for a job with one as they clearly haven't thought of any of your simple solutions until now.


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  19. #49
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Clearly you'd be an invaluable employee for a US defense contractor as you solved all their issues in a few sentences. I suggest you apply for a job with one as they clearly haven't thought of any of your simple solutions until now.

    There's no mention of 'easy' in my post. That said, I do hope you will write me a letter of reference when I apply.
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  20. #50
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    There's no mention of 'easy' in my post. That said, I do hope you will write me a letter of reference when I apply.
    Not in my post either if we're going to be pedantic.

    As for potential solutions to problems in the future, they tend not to be helpful if the problems become acute before the solutions arrive.
    If you told someone in 1250 that the solution to Polio is a vaccine, before they even had the technical means to produce the vaccine, I would say that's nice, but if their child got Polio the next day that would hardly save it.


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  21. #51

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Re-entry phase interception is viable only with a relatively limited number of targets, I concur. This limited character would be true of an NK attack, however. Unless and until the NK's build up a force capable of lobbing hundreds of warheads and even more decoys at the same time and basic target window.

    This presumes that there are enough resources to pre-position ABM systems in the appropriate target spots. Re-entry phase interception would not be workable if out of position.


    The better choice WOULD be a boost phase intercept, with the ABMs striking downward from satellite launch platforms prior to burnout and warhead separation (once they develop MIRV capability). This approach would, of course, mean that a spaced base system would need to be in place in advance of such an attack and such a system would be politically problematic given the loose definition of WMDs (the deployment of which to orbit is prohibited by the Space Treaty).

    I'm hopeful that our Vandenberg shuttles have been deploying a robust orbital ABM system for some time....but I have heard no such rumors.
    Ignoring the less-advanced and lower-range missiles targeting South Korea, Japan, and others in the Pacific - with even a handful of ICBMs, one has to assume something will be detonating over the American mainland. The odds of how optimal for the North the altitudes of detonation, are probably unknowable for us. Clearly the performance of defense systems would have to be much better than we've heard of in tests so far.

    Revealing space-based missiles in the event of a North Korean launch would be a disaster. Not only would we be shown to have fully violated international laws, our adversaries would have a window before we could re-arm the satellites - at which point they could emplace their counterparts, among other things. And we would deserve all the repercussions.

    As nukes are weapons of terror and not of war, even the very good scenario of a few thousand casualties and a few temporary evacuations owing to fallout would shatter our psyche more than any multiples of 9/11. You can bet on martial law, at least.
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  22. #52
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Ignoring the less-advanced and lower-range missiles targeting South Korea, Japan, and others in the Pacific - with even a handful of ICBMs, one has to assume something will be detonating over the American mainland. The odds of how optimal for the North the altitudes of detonation, are probably unknowable for us. Clearly the performance of defense systems would have to be much better than we've heard of in tests so far.

    Revealing space-based missiles in the event of a North Korean launch would be a disaster. Not only would we be shown to have fully violated international laws, our adversaries would have a window before we could re-arm the satellites - at which point they could emplace their counterparts, among other things. And we would deserve all the repercussions.

    As nukes are weapons of terror and not of war, even the very good scenario of a few thousand casualties and a few temporary evacuations owing to fallout would shatter our psyche more than any multiples of 9/11. You can bet on martial law, at least.
    In the sense that perfection is hard to expect from any defense and any "leaker"would almost certainly blot out a substantial portion of some urban/suburban area, I assure you that I am not saying we should blithely ignore the risk and assume we are impervious.''

    Moreover, deploying ABM satellites using conventional warheads would not constitute a breach of the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. Despite such a deployment being within the letter of the treaty's strictures, there are a sizeable number of folks here on the Third Rock who view anything military in space aside from recon/comm satellites as an act of evil. This would be the cause of the political problems noted above.

    If we do have such a system deployed, it is unlikely that all of our defensive assets would be used absent a mass attack. I don't think anybody in our military is silly enough to deploy a single satellite with a pair of missiles and call it a defense. The US military does the tech thing pretty well.

    You are correct as to the "terror" qualities of nuclear weapons. The stigma built up around them is out of proportion to the capability of a single warhead to do damage. They are powerful weapons with a lingering effect that continues to be deadly for some time after use. But those killed are no more nor less dead then someone hacked down by a Hellfire missile or who stumble accidentally onto a landmine planted 75 years ago that has somehow stayed volatile. It is the terror survivors and witnesses associate with its use that is the greatest "threat" posed. This has significant political ramifications and I agree would trend toward hyperbolic responses rather than measured ones.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  23. #53
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Could North Korea not just fire decoys - very difficult to find the "real" ones when there aren't any. Then do you try to shoot the whole lot down?

    Blasting hundreds of millions of dollars of military hardware (even one patriot missile is $1 million) every time there's a plausible threat would be very irritating at the least... and of course if the USA stops shooting at them, then perhaps next time there might be a real one or two in there. It is an insane strategy... but then Lil Kim doesn't seem to be adverse to such things.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  24. #54

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Moreover, deploying ABM satellites using conventional warheads would not constitute a breach of the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies.
    I didn't know that. I'd only ever heard of satellites being redirected in ramming attempts (i.e. repurposed as weapons).

    There may be weapons systems in place then.

    If we do have such a system deployed, it is unlikely that all of our defensive assets would be used absent a mass attack. I don't think anybody in our military is silly enough to deploy a single satellite with a pair of missiles and call it a defense. The US military does the tech thing pretty well.
    But missiles are constrained by weight, size, and speed here. I doubt there are (or could be using 80s/90s tech) sufficient or sufficiently advanced weapons to counter a total exchange, given the limitations toward emplacement. So there's reason to believe a reserve would be largely depleted to defeat the NK arsenal. We might also expect anti-satellite missiles to be the primary weapon in orbit...
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  25. #55
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I didn't know that. I'd only ever heard of satellites being redirected in ramming attempts (i.e. repurposed as weapons).

    There may be weapons systems in place then.



    But missiles are constrained by weight, size, and speed here. I doubt there are (or could be using 80s/90s tech) sufficient or sufficiently advanced weapons to counter a total exchange, given the limitations toward emplacement. So there's reason to believe a reserve would be largely depleted to defeat the NK arsenal. We might also expect anti-satellite missiles to be the primary weapon in orbit...
    I do not know that to be the case, but such weapons are possible in orbit, provided that they are not WMDs. The Treaty specifically precludes the introduction of weaponry or military basing of any kind on any other celestial body, but it does not preclude conventional munitions somewhere in the orbitals.

    And if we did put some kind of hush-hush system up, it probably WOULD have been of a size to negate a few missiles but not a strike by the old USSR. The old Cold War doomsday scenarios envisaged thousands of missiles with more than 10,000 warheads in a given strike. An orbital system that could counter that using the tech available in the late 80's early 90's would probably be visible from Earth as a silvery grey band blocking most of the geosynch orbitals (I exaggerate, but there would be no hiding such a system from most of the political players with any useful radar systems today).

    On the other hand, it would be just the right size to stop or greatly attenuate a dozen missiles from a Pakistan rogue effort or an NK ego strike, while still being small enough a total number of satellites to be "hideable" as part of the GPS/REcon/Comm system that is up there already.
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  26. #56

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Article Pro-Preemptive Strike on North Korean Nuclear Facilities by Edward Luttwak

    It’s true that North Korea could retaliate for any attack by using its conventional rocket artillery against the South Korean capital of Seoul and its surroundings, where almost 20 million inhabitants live within 35 miles of the armistice line. U.S. military officers have cited the fear of a “sea of fire” to justify inaction. But this vulnerability should not paralyze U.S. policy for one simple reason: It is very largely self-inflicted.

    When then-U.S. President Jimmy Carter decided to withdraw all U.S. Army troops from South Korea 40 years ago (ultimately a division was left behind), the defense advisors brought in to help — including myself — urged the Korean government to move its ministries and bureaucrats well away from the country’s northern border and to give strong relocation incentives to private companies. South Korea was also told to mandate proper shelters, as in Zurich for example, where every new building must have its own (under bombardment, casualties increase dramatically if people leave their homes to seek shelter). In recent years, moreover, South Korea has had the option of importing, at moderate cost, Iron Dome batteries, which are produced by both Israel and the United States, that would be capable of intercepting 95 percent of North Korean rockets headed to inhabited structures.

    But over these past four decades, South Korean governments have done practically nothing along these lines. The 3,257 officially listed “shelters” in the Seoul area are nothing more than underground shopping malls, subway stations, and hotel parking lots without any stocks of food or water, medical kits or gas masks. As for importing Iron Dome batteries, the South Koreans have preferred to spend their money on developing a fighter-bomber aimed at Japan.

    Even now, casualties could still be drastically reduced by a crash resilience program. This should involve clearing out and hardening with jacks, props, and steel beams the basements of buildings of all sizes; promptly stocking necessities in the 3,257 official shelters and sign-posting them more visibly; and, of course, evacuating as many as possible beforehand (most of the 20 million or so at risk would be quite safe even just 20 miles further to the south). The United States, for its part, should consider adding vigorous counterbattery attacks to any airstrike on North Korea.

    Nonetheless, given South Korea’s deliberate inaction over many years, any damage ultimately done to Seoul cannot be allowed to paralyze the United States in the face of immense danger to its own national interests, and to those of its other allies elsewhere in the world.
    In other words, ' South Korea, they can go eat and die. But hopefully they don't throw in with China after the liberation of the North - that would weaken Japan's security.'

    And still laboring under the misapprehension that the nuclear program is just sitting out there in some barns and tin huts, easily susceptible to aerial bombardment; that all significant assets and facilities are known and would be targeted; or that North Korea couldn't quickly rebound with foreign assistance from even the most grievous setback. And if all America can accomplish is to "bloody their nose" without actually disabling nuclear capability at any point, we look weak. We look weak to the world.


    It's weird. Luttwak is (or has been) a pre-eminent political scientist, yet he sure does seem to have a lot of dumb ideas where I've read them. Shades of Huntington and van Creveld?

    Offhand, there was that one recent book on China and geopolitics where he massively up the military and diplomatic history of ancient China.
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  27. #57
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Article Pro-Preemptive Strike on North Korean Nuclear Facilities by Edward Luttwak



    In other words, ' South Korea, they can go eat and die. But hopefully they don't throw in with China after the liberation of the North - that would weaken Japan's security.'

    And still laboring under the misapprehension that the nuclear program is just sitting out there in some barns and tin huts, easily susceptible to aerial bombardment; that all significant assets and facilities are known and would be targeted; or that North Korea couldn't quickly rebound with foreign assistance from even the most grievous setback. And if all America can accomplish is to "bloody their nose" without actually disabling nuclear capability at any point, we look weak. We look weak to the world.


    It's weird. Luttwak is (or has been) a pre-eminent political scientist, yet he sure does seem to have a lot of dumb ideas where I've read them. Shades of Huntington and van Creveld?

    Offhand, there was that one recent book on China and geopolitics where he massively up the military and diplomatic history of ancient China.
    This guy was a "hawk" before, during, and after we pulled out of Vietnam. He is about as unreconstructed a cold warrior as you can find still drawing breath. Surely HIS pronouncement of tough love isn't that shocking.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  28. #58

    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    This guy was a "hawk" before, during, and after we pulled out of Vietnam. He is about as unreconstructed a cold warrior as you can find still drawing breath. Surely HIS pronouncement of tough love isn't that shocking.
    On Luttwak in the 1980s:

    Luttwak described what he termed “the officers’ highly visible misconduct,” viewing it as “the breakdown of elementary professional craft,” a failure of leadership in the extreme.[53]

    Luttwak, however, argued that “all this was trivial compared with the tactical self-indulgence that became routine: the jet fighter bombing raids against flimsy huts that might contain a handful of guerrillas or perhaps none; the fair-sized artillery barrages that silenced lone snipers”–in sum, the self-indulgence of a “grossly disproportionate use of firepower” that “became the very theme of the war.”[54] At its peak, (1966-1971) the helicopter gunships of the army were flying almost 4,000 attack sorties a day. Such lavish use of firepower was “the most visible symptom of the inability of the American military institution to formulate a coherent strategy that would focus and control the means of war. No failure of military competence could be more complete.”

    Tragically, many individuals in the American military seemed to learn very little from the disaster in Vietnam. Instead of acknowledging failure, many people have placed the blame for the nation’s failure upon civilian leaders, antiwar protesters, journalists–anyone but the leaders of the military themselves. But civilian leaders, protesters, and journalists did not tell the military services how to use the power allotted to them within the limitations set down. The mistakes made in that arena were the mistakes of the military alone, and officers such as Gropman and Summers were engaged in myth-making of the worst kind when they attempted to obscure the military responsiblity for the outcome in Vietnam. As Luttwak observed, “it was not the civilians who willed the hundreds of daily sorties of the fighter-bombers and the almost 4 million helicopter-gunship sorties of 1966-1971.”
    Luttwak in 2010:

    Ever since the U.S. Strategic Bombing Survey cast doubt on the efficacy of aerial bombardment in World War II, and particularly after its failure to bring victory in the Vietnam War, air power has acquired a bad reputation. Nowadays, killing enemies from the skies is widely considered useless, while its polar opposite, counterinsurgency by nation-building, is the U.S. government’s official policy. But it’s not yet time to junk our planes. Air power still has a lot to offer, even in a world of scattered insurgencies.
    [...]
    The better and much cheaper alternative would be to resurrect strategic bombing in a thoroughly new way by arming the Taliban’s many enemies to the teeth and replacing U.S. troops in Afghanistan with sporadic airstrikes. Whenever the Taliban concentrate in numbers to attack, they would be bombed. This would be a most imperfect solution. But it would end the costly futility of "nation-building" in a remote and unwelcoming land. Eventually, after trying everything else, Obama will probably get there.
    (Yes I'm being equivocal, but it makes me chuckle.)
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  29. #59
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Just received the following alert via phone, radio and TV. Certainly surreal:
    BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL
    I assume Oahu is in quite a panic. Wonder if someone hacked our alert system or if Kim is demonstrating his ICBM reach.

    EDIT/BREAK:

    http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/3...-was-a-mistake

    Ballistic missile threat alert sent to Hawaii phones was a mistake

    HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -
    Hawaii was woken up Saturday morning by a false ballistic missile threat alert sent to Hawaii phones.

    Hawaii News Now confirmed the alert was false
    Hope whoever at the State Emergency Alert system did that gets fired.

    And via email from y County Civil Defense:
    This is a Civil Defense Message. Please disregard message of nuclear attack. There is NO THREAT of Missle Launch at this time. I repeat, there is NO THREAT at this time.
    Last edited by spmetla; 01-13-2018 at 19:37.

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  30. #60
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Whoops, wrong button.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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