Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Choxorn]

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

This post also looks bad:

A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

Scum Reinoe would for sure say this to try to direct attention at the Logic wagon if there wasn't any bussing.

If there is bussing, OTOH, I'd say it's Csargo and/or Slaan. Winston looks townie af to me, and I also lean town on Kagemusha and Pizza.

Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

How so?

[reinoe]

How so?

Because El Barto went AFK and then pops up two minutes after the lynch. The timing makes it seem like he was around but didn't want his presence to be known.

[Slaan]

Btw in case anyone is still having reservations: pizza is town 100%. Not only due to his read+flip, but his last posts are 100% the post villiager that's hyped that his read panned out :)

[Fredwood]

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

[Dp101]

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

[Fredwood]

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

Lol not really, I'm having a hard enough time self-arguing WiFoM why scum GH makes that play there let alone with Zack Xposting with GH. Couple that with the the xpost on the push on me, if they are teammates, they have shit timing.

[reinoe]

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

[Fredwood]

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.

[reinoe]

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.

1. Logic had 5 votes at that time so hammer was not likely.

2.I don't remember seeing that you weren't scumreading me and it's ultimately irrelevant. The vote on me is not the primary point. That has little to do with what I'm saying and I don't know why you keep trying to deflect to it. I'm pointing out that there is a complete disconnect between what you want and what you did. You wanted to vote logic or El barto (or apparently GH) but did none of it, despite having multiple chances to do so. It looks like you were completely indifferent to what was going on during the day.

3.

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.

What "thing" with GH are you talking about? This was the last post you made (re-inforcing your support for a logic lynch who had only 5 votes at the time). If you're trying to say your "tis strange" comment is you scumreading him then that's weaksauce.

it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

No, it's not clear.

Tangent. But there's been some recent soft-defense of Zack from you without actually talking about Zack directly.

[El Barto]

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

How so?

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way.

[Cuthillius]

so we're sheeping pizza right

still think zack's town, still think dp's probably town

[Slaan]

No sheeping. Get reads yourself and follow those... we need everyone to put in work so everyone can be sorted.

[Askthepizzaguy]

That "cfd" attempt onto either Monty or dp101, both of those attempts look godawful.

Think both targets are strongly townie.

I had town leans or strong town leans on both Zack and GH at one point but this is not two townies interacting, as I'm reading this.

I don't seriously think they believed the cfd attempt would work, given the time frame and the fact that we're on the org, and who might have been online at the time. I don't think they thought they could really save Logic, I think more serious attempts at that were made by both over the course of the round, in their own unique styles.

Here, I think they didn't know what to do and both choxorn and logic look like correct lynches, and that they both look like butt for defending Logic, so the play was confusion, stick to their meta of being in favor of cfds so they could at least look like they had no idea a scum was about to flip.

Plus there's always a chance some townie moves off of Logic and choxorn becomes snipe bait. If choxorn is town, this is a good way to destroy all of the positive progress being made on d1, and if he's scum, this at least is some kind of attempt at confusion.

I think both were at a loss for a better move under the circumstances. Just flat out pushing choxorn over Logic even if choxorn is town isn't a great play in the long term because Logic really looked bad by the end of that day and he'd probably have been revisited on choxorn's town flip especially with end of day shenanigans.

I don't think the random cfd attempts were significantly worse, and certainly less straightforward and readable, than simply pushing a more sincere-looking alternative to either, or just plugging away at the hope choxorn dies.

I really don't buy some of their suspects and the reasons why, and their arguments for why Logic was town were scummy. The dp push from both just makes me feel gross when looking at it.

I'll still go back and iso both, try to look at things from a body of work perspective, but I am sensing a lot more interest in chaos and unreadability and trying to make day one worthless than actual solving from both, particularly as the day wound down.

If either or both are townies I have my work cut out for me, and we all do, because it's quite bad on several re-reads.

I also gotta say, both of their posts after the flip felt awkward, like they weren't really sure what the town reaction should be to that. I don't want to read too much into that or give it a lot of weight, but I was all gung ho to give them both a shot at looking townie, and I am seriously wondering how either one has credibility at this point.

It wasn't lolcatting but it sure felt like desperation and trickery rather than sincere towning.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think both have too much experience being scums to collapse in such a way so visibly or dramatically, but I'm having a hard time denying what I'm looking at.

I really had better sleep, and focus on town-building when I wake up. All of this seems too easy but it doesn't feel townie either. Don't know what to make of it.

[Slaan]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

[Fredwood]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

Eh it's possible I guess. I just think if he's scum he knows bussing Logic there buys him no equity so better to take the contrarian stance to fuel WiFoM.

I don't see the CFD as an attempt to save Chox though, I mean it's only put Chox further in the towns crosshairs if anything, personally I was 100 percent null on Chox before reading EoD.

It might be possible that Chox and GH aren't aligned. (IE Bad GH tries to make the VillaChox lynch more likely to save his actual partner who could also be on the chopping block). However I'm already WIFOMing the hell out that. Anybody know if GH is Sicilian?

[El Barto]

See post #1137

Typo fixed.

[Choxorn]

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way.

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

[Dp101]

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

I know I'm not him, but I don't necessarily have problems with this right now. Reinoe has had very inconsistent tone between his posts, and there isn't that much clearing him. I'll have to reread EOD first though because I need to confirm whether or not Logic's flip clears you at all.

[Slaan]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

1337 15 743 83773|2 /V|_||\/|83l2 740|_|64

[Csargo]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

[Dp101]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

[Montmorency]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

This is an important setup. The question may hold the key to the game.

If that was scum behavior, then it was either anti-spew or lolcatting supreme like you don't see often outside of when Csargo got outed by Zack in Pokemon. And that was a totally different context with different people, lasting throughout a day rather than a few minutes of EOD.

If that's coordinated scum action, then how many layers of WIFOM are we talking? Assume 2 dead per round, we have 7 more lynches left. How does this help them survive 1 teammate down?

If only one of the two is scum, then trying to divine the rationale may be pointless; better off mechanically flipping or otherwise clearing one of the two through normal game course and process.

Pokemon GH, you could say, proved capable of risky EOD moves for no immediate payoff (he tied two townies IIRC), but that was tying the vote to produce confusion, not CFDing to protect a partner or otherwise. The crucial thing is that, aside from me, DP, and Slaan who were around to see it during EOD, he was only playing in a way that muddies his own image (as was Zack). They had the spotlight, and no one was implicated in anything, so you can't say it sets up scrutiny of a townie or furthers a mislynch down the line.
@Askthepizzaguy, I don't think I'm capable of doing analysis of Zack beyond gut reads. Could you look at that set of D1 content from Swords and Sorcery I collated? By the time of my posting that



Pizza's townies:

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

Let's see, there's no point in tinfoiling Pizza right now, Kage was solid on Logic throughout the day (as well as an early advocate of Pizza's case), and DP was 2nd or 3rd to join that wagon. If we had m/m wagons, these two even going only off timing are acceptable locks. Winston is kind of playing at high-level independently, and without checking also early on Logic (2nd?). Not sure if that's the case for Slaan, but off the top of my head my impression of Slaan is as insightful, helpful, and challenging in a consistent way, but there aren't notable single instances that ping me heavily towards one alignment or another. I was struck that smiley post reaching out to Choxorn earlier on, but purely by content it's NAI.

So I wouldn't lock Slaan, and having no "candidate locks" would place him in a 50%+ town (i.e. 75%+) category alongside Fred. Reinoe, may be turning out inconsistent like Viper in Pokemon, so as of now only a light town read.

Pizza's the-rest: Individuals need substantive treatment, but I don't have any new opinions on Manasi and Barto beyond null, and Xiahou hasn't had more than a couple posts. As for Csargo, I don't agree on how you're treating him for early D1, that even as he's doing just fine past the beginning of the game you pre-emptively rule out any opportunity for him to post himself into Town. Choxorn since EOD is unremarkable, sussing Reinoe so if that's where he's pushing the two less likely a team.

I still need to see how the EOD wagons can be anaylzed wrt this group.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

[No Montmorency post quoted]

(;¬_¬)

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.

Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.

Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).

That's the biggest issue.

red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.

Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.

It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.

Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.

I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.

Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

Don't think so.

reinoe is maybe a never sell to me and I'm considering him for the next batch of town locks. What do you have on him?

[reinoe]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

[Montmorency]

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685, so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 - Reinoe (switched onto Zack soon after, had some other votes as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513, then back to Logic #796)
#511 - Winston (Changes to Barto #521, changes back to Logic #539 after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 - Slaan
#777 - Choxorn

#919 - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it

[Montmorency]

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685, so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 - Reinoe (switched onto Zack soon after, had some other votes as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513, then back to Logic #796)
#511 - Winston (Changes to Barto #521, changes back to Logic #539 after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 - Slaan
#777 - Choxorn

#919 - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

My bad, I missed this vote and change back to Logic.

Manual failure.

[Choxorn]

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

I actually forgot about that, to be honest, and that's a good point.

I still think some of your posts are a little questionable, but on re-read you overall look pretty good, and I don't really see you being scummates with Zack right now.

So, Zack/GH/? then.