Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am about ready to put dp101 as my fourth non-me lock townie. Not as easy as just reading Logic but the read is just too powerful and it's a body of work style read.

[Slaan]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

[Slaan]

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

Well I'm obv lock town, such are you. Without having reread anything I'd also put Kage high up in my town pile, liked his interactions in general and that he was rather anti-Logic iirc is also good. Winston I don't have much on my mind, would have to reread. Want to add dp as basically lock town, he not only didnt join the CFD that might've saved logic but also argued against it in such a simple (and overall imo wrong) way that I don't ever see ever a wolf doing it.

[Slaan]

I am about ready to put dp101 as my fourth non-me lock townie. Not as easy as just reading Logic but the read is just too powerful and it's a body of work style read.

Oh yea there you go... didnt see that before my post nice.

[Choxorn]

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way.

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

[Dp101]

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

I'm good with this. Also, thanks for looking back over the CFD attempt for me, I thought it looked pretty bad and I'm thankful that someone else agrees.

[Dp101]

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

[Dp101]

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

I know I'm not him, but I don't necessarily have problems with this right now. Reinoe has had very inconsistent tone between his posts, and there isn't that much clearing him. I'll have to reread EOD first though because I need to confirm whether or not Logic's flip clears you at all.

[Slaan]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

1337 15 743 83773|2 /V|_||\/|83l2 740|_|64

[Csargo]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

[Dp101]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Drifting in an out of this game as other things catch my attention, but.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

I think I can only lock Winston Slaan Kage and dp right now, but I think all of the above three have enough where I could and potentially should find enough to lock them as well.

I don't care about your suss on Logic aside from the fact that you're not pushing him. My issue is you pushing Zack over logic because "Zack" didn't talk to logic. You're saying logic is scum, therefore Zack is scum because he's avoiding logic. Well get logic lynched first then go after Zack.

This was another good bit. I commented on it the first time but it bears repeating on Logic's flip.

This is pretty good. Not enough for a lock but serious consideration given. Will ISO in the morning. It is the morning, so after sleep.

No, I'm not saying logic is scum therefore zack is scum.

1. Logic is scum independently of Zack.

2. Zack has talked to everything that moves except logic. Therefore they're either masons/scum/neighbors. I stated this once already. Either way they're talking to each other OOT and thus have no reason to talk in thread.

3. Zack is scummy independent of Zack.

They are not necessarily scum together but somehow they are talking to each other.

I also want reinoe in the eventual town lineup, need to do the work to prove it first. This observation feels quite townie on Logic's flip. It could be a bridge too far, but I can't discount it. More important to me is if reinoe is scum/faking this post and I don't think so.

Keeping in mind my strong town read on Monty, the next tier is comprised of the following lock town candidates.

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

I have opinions and leans on the rest but nothing below is nearly as solid as the above.

If all 8 of the above are correct, I think I only need one more?

9 lock townies and 7 suspects is a solve, is it not? Or do I have my math wrong. Brain getting fuzzy. I literally just did it on my fingers and somehow I am still not sure I have that right. When the number of townies is two more than the number of lynches and the townies are all correct that's a solve, yes?

remaining:

GH
Csargo
El Barto
Zack
Cuthillius <---town lean
Manasi
Choxorn
Xiahou <--- town lean

And of those I wouldn't push Xiahou or Cuth, but I'd have to do a lot of diligent work on both before crowning them town. I had a good read on Cuth as being townie at one point too, but I feel like the others above are a tier above Cuth.

Ahh passing out by now. Yeah I really gotta stop here.

I think I could find one more townie if I had the time/energy. But because you can't let even one scum into the circle, I really have to put in serious work on fred/reinoe/monty/ ninth candidate.

Bah posting this, not even gonna look over it for mistakes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

Don't think so.

reinoe is maybe a never sell to me and I'm considering him for the next batch of town locks. What do you have on him?

[Montmorency]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

This is an important setup. The question may hold the key to the game.

If that was scum behavior, then it was either anti-spew or lolcatting supreme like you don't see often outside of when Csargo got outed by Zack in Pokemon. And that was a totally different context with different people, lasting throughout a day rather than a few minutes of EOD.

If that's coordinated scum action, then how many layers of WIFOM are we talking? Assume 2 dead per round, we have 7 more lynches left. How does this help them survive 1 teammate down?

If only one of the two is scum, then trying to divine the rationale may be pointless; better off mechanically flipping or otherwise clearing one of the two through normal game course and process.

Pokemon GH, you could say, proved capable of risky EOD moves for no immediate payoff (he tied two townies IIRC), but that was tying the vote to produce confusion, not CFDing to protect a partner or otherwise. The crucial thing is that, aside from me, DP, and Slaan who were around to see it during EOD, he was only playing in a way that muddies his own image (as was Zack). They had the spotlight, and no one was implicated in anything, so you can't say it sets up scrutiny of a townie or furthers a mislynch down the line.
@Askthepizzaguy, I don't think I'm capable of doing analysis of Zack beyond gut reads. Could you look at that set of D1 content from Swords and Sorcery I collated? By the time of my posting that



Pizza's townies:

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

Let's see, there's no point in tinfoiling Pizza right now, Kage was solid on Logic throughout the day (as well as an early advocate of Pizza's case), and DP was 2nd or 3rd to join that wagon. If we had m/m wagons, these two even going only off timing are acceptable locks. Winston is kind of playing at high-level independently, and without checking also early on Logic (2nd?). Not sure if that's the case for Slaan, but off the top of my head my impression of Slaan is as insightful, helpful, and challenging in a consistent way, but there aren't notable single instances that ping me heavily towards one alignment or another. I was struck that smiley post reaching out to Choxorn earlier on, but purely by content it's NAI.

So I wouldn't lock Slaan, and having no "candidate locks" would place him in a 50%+ town (i.e. 75%+) category alongside Fred. Reinoe, may be turning out inconsistent like Viper in Pokemon, so as of now only a light town read.

Pizza's the-rest: Individuals need substantive treatment, but I don't have any new opinions on Manasi and Barto beyond null, and Xiahou hasn't had more than a couple posts. As for Csargo, I don't agree on how you're treating him for early D1, that even as he's doing just fine past the beginning of the game you pre-emptively rule out any opportunity for him to post himself into Town. Choxorn since EOD is unremarkable, sussing Reinoe so if that's where he's pushing the two less likely a team.

I still need to see how the EOD wagons can be anaylzed wrt this group.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

[No Montmorency post quoted]

(;¬_¬)

[reinoe]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

[Csargo]

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

My best guess is they got bored and were never really convinced Logic was scum, so they went in search of someone else. Awful idea in hindsight, but everything is an awful idea in hindsight. There's little chance they'd both do that as scum I don't think.

[Csargo]

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

So to answer the first question, yeah I'd say it's probably more of a townie action than a scum action, however misguided it may have been.

[reinoe]

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

[reinoe]

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

[Montmorency]

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685, so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 - Reinoe (switched onto Zack soon after, had some other votes as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513, then back to Logic #796)
#511 - Winston (Changes to Barto #521, changes back to Logic #539 after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 - Slaan
#777 - Choxorn

#919 - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it

[reinoe]

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

[Kagemusha]

Vote: Choxorn

Vote with one of my top suspects on the counter-wagon to my #1 suspect?

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

[Choxorn]

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

I actually forgot about that, to be honest, and that's a good point.

I still think some of your posts are a little questionable, but on re-read you overall look pretty good, and I don't really see you being scummates with Zack right now.

So, Zack/GH/? then.

[Winston Hughes]

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

Make hay while the sun shines.

I was possibly even more confident than pizza about Logic being scum (because I knew I was on the level both in my support and in the independence of my reasons, whereas pizza couldn't be sure he wasn't just being sheeped), and almost certain he was getting lynched (if it had come into serious doubt, then I would put my thumb on the scale much more heavily).

Everything I did between stepping off the Logic wagon and stepping back on again was content generation, trying to leverage my confidence about the gamestate into more readable info for post-flip analysis.

[Winston Hughes]

None of which is to say that my suspicion of chox wasn't genuine, btw.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

I don't know. At this point I don't trust a certain group of people, but I feel like I can more reliably find my townies.

Gonna do that. I could harp on and on endlessly about how scummy x y and z are, but I have too many so some of it is wrong.

I get the feeling if I go based on what looks scummy to me I could swing-and-a-miss on the next guess, and then we can get off track.

What do we know? Well some people look townie and they got there in a way that was well earned, and I feel like going through those one by one is my better bet. Make the town circle.

Because if Xiahou is scum, I'm not finding that in his posts so far. I might not before I die. If Manasi is scum, that might be based off of a post or two that felt wrong to me, but I don't have a strong case. If it's GH or Zack I can't tell which one right now, if it's both I don't know if I convince this crowd, see Csargo's argument for why.

I don't know if I can get what scum remain outside my town into a nice, tight lynching knot that's exactly right.

What I do think is that I can find 8 townies by midnight tonight, especially since I've got half of them and what I feel are good leads on 3 additional ones.

If I find that 8th townie, and if all are right, and I convince you guys not to eat each other when I die, shit like being unable to read Xiahou or Manasi or Zack or GH or Csargo or choxorn town when they are won't begin to matter.

It won't matter, it's still a win. Maybe a sloppy win, but when all the scums have left to do is count down to the day when their POE number comes up, that's gonna be extremely demoralizing. Like repeated punches to the stomach that knock all the wind out of 'em.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I need to start from square zero as not everyone is even gonna agree on the folks I think are the most obvious.

Let's walk you through it. Starting with the easiest town read, Winston. Which is not something you're oft to hear from my lips.

This will be for the people who don't think it's at all obvious, for them to look at and say why this isn't conclusive. Otherwise I'm just gonna state it like it's the alibi that proves he dinna do it and move on without too much elaboration and fanfare.

[Fredwood]

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

Lol not really, I'm having a hard enough time self-arguing WiFoM why scum GH makes that play there let alone with Zack Xposting with GH. Couple that with the the xpost on the push on me, if they are teammates, they have shit timing.

[Fredwood]

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.

[Fredwood]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

Eh it's possible I guess. I just think if he's scum he knows bussing Logic there buys him no equity so better to take the contrarian stance to fuel WiFoM.

I don't see the CFD as an attempt to save Chox though, I mean it's only put Chox further in the towns crosshairs if anything, personally I was 100 percent null on Chox before reading EoD.

It might be possible that Chox and GH aren't aligned. (IE Bad GH tries to make the VillaChox lynch more likely to save his actual partner who could also be on the chopping block). However I'm already WIFOMing the hell out that. Anybody know if GH is Sicilian?