Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Kagemusha]

Kage, what do you think of Pizza tentatively judging that Cuth-GH-Logic interactions look relatively good for Cuth? It's somewhere in the sea of walls, if you use the browser search.

I tend to get GH wrong, so I've been ignoring him where he doesn't leave an impression, but aside from he and Zack having a lot of 'splaining to do for EOD, the game has been neglecting him so someone needs to ISO.

There are couple of players i dont agree with Pizza and Slaan. With Pizza is Cuth, but he is not yet at our reach. If we can flip scum from GH, avenue for investigation opens towards Cuth and Zack. I think Cuth can be scum and i cant see anything clear which would say he is not. I joined GH in his vote against Cuth in order to get something out from Cuth and also see how GH would pursue the case, but to me.GH´s case against Cuth was hot air, which can create a connection between GH and Cuth.

The player i disagree with Slaan is Chox. I dont see him as top priority lynch. I dont think the scum would have bussed seriously yet another mafia against mafia, which leads to DP. Im not as sure as Pizza about DP. With a smart scum team. He could be playing the second violin, thus getting close to Pizza, but that could be also just my paranoia.

[reinoe]

Abandoned Monty read to do logic and he had no associative tells I could discern other than that he's definitely not aligned with Kage.

[reinoe]

There are couple of players i dont agree with Pizza and Slaan. With Pizza is Cuth, but he is not yet at our reach. If we can flip scum from GH, avenue for investigation opens towards Cuth and Zack. I think Cuth can be scum and i cant see anything clear which would say he is not. I joined GH in his vote against Cuth in order to get something out from Cuth and also see how GH would pursue the case, but to me.GH´s case against Cuth was hot air, which can create a connection between GH and Cuth.

The player i disagree with Slaan is Chox. I dont see him as top priority lynch. I dont think the scum would have bussed seriously yet another mafia against mafia, which leads to DP. Im not as sure as Pizza about DP. With a smart scum team. He could be playing the second violin, thus getting close to Pizza, but that could be also just my paranoia.

Oh another person is here. What do you think about Zack=scum?

[Kagemusha]

Oh another person is here. What do you think about Zack=scum?

Zack= Scum is too early for me. Zack like Pizza are analogous to staring at the sun. You only go blind with simple focus on either, they usually create so much content that focusing on them will only lead to bad conclusions. You need more and in this case like i replied to Monty. If GH flips scum. Zack should go under scrutiny.

[reinoe]

He likes to troll people, especially unfamiliar people. Not saying your vote is misguided for pressure - just beware of a self-reinforcing cycle.

This seems townie. He's providing advice on how to read a player who apparently gets misread often while not actually defending or attacking El Barto.

I have to pettifog this. In this game the newcomers are Slaan and Reinoe. In Pokemon there were two as well, Champ and Severing Viper.

...

And what's this sudden Manasi shift, Manasi specifically?

I'm gonna give town-points to Monty for using "pettifog".

Hmm, but you leave out FrenchRev, where (on the public end) he similarly lolcatted and complained. And I guess for a lot of people XCOM was a rather unique experience.

Here's some major excerpts from Barto's D2 in FrenchRev, where you voted him for similar reasons:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Your best rebuttal may be that his only D1 activity in FrenchRev was:



while here he hasn't AFAIK announced RL limitations.

Here he's going back and forth with Zack about how to read El Barto. I can see that Monty really wants to be able to read a slot that's difficult to read. On that note I'm fine with just leaving El Barto alone. It looks like he has a playstyle that will have me reading him scummy by default.

Hi.



What do you think of Choxorn?

Asking for other's opinions about another player.

I don't feel any urgency to lynch right now, since half the day is ahead and a number of nulls like Choxorn, Cuth, Barto, and Xiahou remain to sort out. The case against Logic is relatively good for D1, and we need to see him respond against all those nulls. Right now I'm fine continuing to vote you.

Re Manasi: I mean that she would be putting out observations or prods toward her teammates, and she doesn't seem to be observing or prodding much of anyone so far, other than joking with you as usual.

Re: Barto, yes, and he never broke out of it and got lynched. So? That took 2 or 3 days to fill out.

Choxorn is null...

GH
Logic
El Barto
Manasi
choxorn

scumpile

Hi.



What do you think of Choxorn?

Piggy-backing off Winston's scum list?

Stopping here...
@Montmorency
When did you start getting suspicious of Choxorn? Which interaction caused that?

[Kagemusha]

Here is my list of players as testament, as even with this start. There is always the option how miniscule as possible that Pizza flips scum. Busses his scum buddy at first round totally and finally wins the game, which btw would be masterful and deserved, so after day 5 start thinking of it. ;) Im afraid town proof old me is yesterdays news.

Scumbucket:

Logic
GH
Cuthillius
Zack



Townbucket:

Kage
Pizza
Slaan
Csargo
Fredwood
El Barto
Choxorn
Winston Hughes

Not enough info bucket:

Dp101
Manasi
Xiahou
Reinoe
Montmorency


Of course this would/will hopefully change with new information.

[Dp101]

Not enough info bucket:

Dp101

So, Pizza posts a massive treatise on why I'm town, and you claim that there's not enough information out there to read me? Hell, even if you don't trust him, you sure you can't get a read on me from how EOD played out? This makes no sense.

[Kagemusha]

So, Pizza posts a massive treatise on why I'm town, and you claim that there's not enough information out there to read me? Hell, even if you don't trust him, you sure you can't get a read on me from how EOD played out? This makes no sense.

This is my personal opinion. Nothing to do with trust. We should remember its night 1. I can think of lot of things concerning the final moments of last day, but there is nothing to say with this amount of information.

[Montmorency]

I've only done 1/2 of GH ISO, but will post what i have.

Tangentially, I want to note that while I didn't do a full wagon analysis of my own, Fred, Slaan, and Kage during the night have put down everything that needed to be said overnight.

On re-read. I missed this.

Winston's town. Zack probably mafia.

Lol. Your answer to a question from early Day 1 is clearly not going to be valid for the circumstances in which the question was asked. I think that smacks of ingenuity.

Choxorn is null...


Piggy-backing off Winston's scum list?

Stopping here...
@Montmorency
When did you start getting suspicious of Choxorn? Which interaction caused that?

Actually, yes. At that time I was a bit incredulous of pushes against Barto and Manasi, didn't have anything much to say about GH, and between my calling Choxorn null and my asking Winston about Choxorn (eventually voting Chox once wagons on Barto and Manasi began to appear, mostly on account of Zack and GH), Choxorn had his second set of 3 posts that I noted several times looked iffy. Around post 775.

[Montmorency]

GH ISO PART I (Half-day)

This isn't going to be fancy or user-friendly, I just searched the username throughout the thread and made notes and descriptions. I've only done 1/2 of the GH ISO, but I'll post what I have as of now. I think I may have made bad choices in formatting.

A. GH was active from the beginning, voting Csargo. Chats with Winston about music. Zack begins interacting with him, jokes about ellipses-as-scumtell.

B.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Disappears for ~100 posts, returns to welcome-vote Slaan (who arrived soon after GH disappeared and interacted with Zack, Winston, Pizza, Monty, Csargo, Logic in rough order of volume).

Soon after, Winston makes the first leans-post of the game, to Zack's belittlement:

Dp101 - Lock Town
Slaan - Town

Logic - Null
Csargo - Null

Monty - Third Party

pizza - scum
GH - scum

Zack - lock scum

Logic has this to say about GH's vote:

If thats hiw you welcome newcomers, I guess I'm thankful that for my first game here you were unable to vote for me.

C.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Returns another ~100 posts later to say:

Zack and dp look okay, Zack seems really natural and flow-y and Dp seems uncomfortable so far which is pretty solidly in his town meta.

Everyone else is either null or confusing.

Pizza agrees with the post and Zack asks GH how he reads him for scumminess. GH replies to Zack that he looks mostly looks for "tone and stuff", and for Zack to dispute others' townreads of him. Zack retorts that he can do this as scum to reinforce the meta impression. DP worries that if he ever moves past the meta GH attributed to him, he will endure many mislynches. For this, GH grants him a begrudging town-point. During the exchange, reinoe votes Logic and Zack votes Pizza. Zack asks GH why he has taken so long to get into the game despite being around the for the opening, and GH please inattention. Zack asks GH what he thinks of Pizza, is he null? GH agrees with null, finds Pizza's roleplay tough to decipher, asks Zack the same question. Pizza rates GH highly as town. Zack says he explained his feelings on Pizza, but GH wants more - Zack declines. Meanwhile, Csargo votes Pizza.

D.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Once again, GH returns ~100 posts later to lock DP town and suss the voters on him; DP put heat on Pizza for the same reasons (cryptic posting) that GH did, and GH isn't get as much heat as DP, so that makes it a scum push, a case that DP appreciates and allows him to town-read GH, "for now". Zack asks if GH is implying that DP is an easier target than GH; GH affirms, either push both GH and DP or it's a lazy superficial read. GH passive-aggression toward Csargo's fireworks gif because Csargo once posted it as scum "in a similar situation". Zack identifies that game as Pokemon (Csargo elaborates), thinks it should be taken as NAI. Zack asks if GH refers to reinoe and Cuth when shading the DP voters.

E.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Another ~100 posts later, Reinoe disagrees with GH that he and DP are making the same points about Pizza being confusing. Zack asks GH to answer his question about whom he was referring to on the DP train (Reinoe and Cuth), and asks about differences in Org vs. off-site meta. GH appears immediately after to make his first long case/analysis (to Fred's derision) and vote Cuth:

Here's where I'm at right now:

I think Zack and Dp are still town.

I'm not particularly interested in lynching Pizza today even though I don't really have a read on him.

I think Kage is displaying some pretty decent towntells so far (willingness to get into it with people early on and picking his spots as they come) but I'm not giving him a pass for the full game yet.

Of the two Dp pushers I talked about earlier, I like Reinoe more than Cuth because Reinoe's explanations are decent and more well thought out than Cuth's.

I'm a little bit wary of Slaan right now because he's acting a bit different than in other games I've played with him in/read of his, but I think it can be chalked up to adjusting to a new environment for now.

I think Fred could be a bit better so far.

Vote: Cuth

Zack asks for more detail and meta on kage, slaan, and fred, wants to know GH's meta better after getting burned in Pokemon.

GH answers Zack on meta, but can't give much substance, wonders if it changes Zack's read on him. Elaborating on reads, he firmly townreads Kage on meta and process, with Slaan and Fred a tier below since he doesn't know their scum games. On Slaan it's nullish or mixed based on experience, least experience with Fred but he should be more engaged:

Fred I'm least confident about but I think he's definitely had less engagement so far than he's capable of (yesyes, I know the same can be said for me, but I'm town so).

Slaan asks the thread that "if GH mislynches me kill GH :)". Zack says GH's read makes him feel better about Kage, asks Pizza for help identifying a game where Kage was outed as scum. Disagrees on Slaan and Fred, they're fine:

slaan seems fine, maybe he's a good wolf but not worth pursuing this early based on just paranoia. In my experience, having low thread involvement is not alignment-indicate for fred and fairly typical

GH still can't give better than a "crappy" answer to Zack about his own meta, but says the questions make him feel good about Zack. Makes joke to Kagemusha about an old player and forums skins. Logic shades Kage for not knowing ISO as a veteran player, but GH points out it's a more recently-adopted term than Kage's day.

Winston judges the above GH-Zack exchange as really townie. Kage FOS lowposters to participate more, GH urges him to follow him onto voting Cuth for the bad vote on DP. Pizza doesn't feel good about GH's vote on Cuth. NOTE: GH never directly answered Zack on if he was sussing Reinoe and Cuth specifically, and so this vote was kind of out of nowhere. Kage agrees that Cuth is looking rotten, "not quite pushing, trying to connect a bit, making excuses..Best bet for scum so far."

I want to do EOD (last 6 hours of day) separately, but noting the beginning of the night from GH it's strangely perfunctory given the EOD shenanigans. I'm suspicious of this kind of humor from GH after big events, though I'm not sure how it's manifested in the past.

Current self-portrait:



Good job, everyone.

So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum. @GeneralHankerchief

[Csargo]

So, Pizza posts a massive treatise on why I'm town, and you claim that there's not enough information out there to read me? Hell, even if you don't trust him, you sure you can't get a read on me from how EOD played out? This makes no sense.

Thought your EoD made you look awkward imo, still think you're town, but just thought it a bit concerning.

[Sooh]

*microphone feedback sounds*

Ahem...

Testing... testing....

Is it working?

What was that? Is it work.... Can you just give me a thumbs up?

Oh, ok. Seems we're live.

Ok, so, ladies and gentlemen. Before the start of today's round of games we thought we'd just let you know that we had somebody check out of the player hotel last night, if any of you want to know who, check the bulletin board at the end of the foyer.

Rules today are as before, we'll play for 72 hours, or until somebody quits, and by quits I mean they get voted out. Strange.... I didn't think people voted in chess?

************************************************************************
BULLETIN BOARD

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Winston Hughes,

You are Suren Aghabekyan.



You run a successful youtube channel in which you show your viewers chess games with current and former chess champions. Your catchphrases are: "Hello chess lovers" and "dubious".

You are a Vanilla Town.

*******************************************************************************

EOD 2:

[Csargo]

GH ISO PART I (Half-day)

This isn't going to be fancy or user-friendly, I just searched the username throughout the thread and made notes and descriptions. I've only done 1/2 of the GH ISO, but I'll post what I have as of now. I think I may have made bad choices in formatting.

A. GH was active from the beginning, voting Csargo. Chats with Winston about music. Zack begins interacting with him, jokes about ellipses-as-scumtell.

B.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Disappears for ~100 posts, returns to welcome-vote Slaan (who arrived soon after GH disappeared and interacted with Zack, Winston, Pizza, Monty, Csargo, Logic in rough order of volume).

Soon after, Winston makes the first leans-post of the game, to Zack's belittlement:



Logic has this to say about GH's vote:

C.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Returns another ~100 posts later to say:



Pizza agrees with the post and Zack asks GH how he reads him for scumminess. GH replies to Zack that he looks mostly looks for "tone and stuff", and for Zack to dispute others' townreads of him. Zack retorts that he can do this as scum to reinforce the meta impression. DP worries that if he ever moves past the meta GH attributed to him, he will endure many mislynches. For this, GH grants him a begrudging town-point. During the exchange, reinoe votes Logic and Zack votes Pizza. Zack asks GH why he has taken so long to get into the game despite being around the for the opening, and GH please inattention. Zack asks GH what he thinks of Pizza, is he null? GH agrees with null, finds Pizza's roleplay tough to decipher, asks Zack the same question. Pizza rates GH highly as town. Zack says he explained his feelings on Pizza, but GH wants more - Zack declines. Meanwhile, Csargo votes Pizza.

D.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Once again, GH returns ~100 posts later to lock DP town and suss the voters on him; DP put heat on Pizza for the same reasons (cryptic posting) that GH did, and GH isn't get as much heat as DP, so that makes it a scum push, a case that DP appreciates and allows him to town-read GH, "for now". Zack asks if GH is implying that DP is an easier target than GH; GH affirms, either push both GH and DP or it's a lazy superficial read. GH passive-aggression toward Csargo's fireworks gif because Csargo once posted it as scum "in a similar situation". Zack identifies that game as Pokemon (Csargo elaborates), thinks it should be taken as NAI. Zack asks if GH refers to reinoe and Cuth when shading the DP voters.

E.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Another ~100 posts later, Reinoe disagrees with GH that he and DP are making the same points about Pizza being confusing. Zack asks GH to answer his question about whom he was referring to on the DP train (Reinoe and Cuth), and asks about differences in Org vs. off-site meta. GH appears immediately after to make his first long case/analysis (to Fred's derision) and vote Cuth:



Zack asks for more detail and meta on kage, slaan, and fred, wants to know GH's meta better after getting burned in Pokemon.

GH answers Zack on meta, but can't give much substance, wonders if it changes Zack's read on him. Elaborating on reads, he firmly townreads Kage on meta and process, with Slaan and Fred a tier below since he doesn't know their scum games. On Slaan it's nullish or mixed based on experience, least experience with Fred but he should be more engaged:



Slaan asks the thread that "if GH mislynches me kill GH :)". Zack says GH's read makes him feel better about Kage, asks Pizza for help identifying a game where Kage was outed as scum. Disagrees on Slaan and Fred, they're fine:



GH still can't give better than a "crappy" answer to Zack about his own meta, but says the questions make him feel good about Zack. Makes joke to Kagemusha about an old player and forums skins. Logic shades Kage for not knowing ISO as a veteran player, but GH points out it's a more recently-adopted term than Kage's day.

Winston judges the above GH-Zack exchange as really townie. Kage FOS lowposters to participate more, GH urges him to follow him onto voting Cuth for the bad vote on DP. Pizza doesn't feel good about GH's vote on Cuth. NOTE: GH never directly answered Zack on if he was sussing Reinoe and Cuth specifically, and so this vote was kind of out of nowhere. Kage agrees that Cuth is looking rotten, "not quite pushing, trying to connect a bit, making excuses..Best bet for scum so far."

I want to do EOD (last 6 hours of day) separately, but noting the beginning of the night from GH it's strangely perfunctory given the EOD shenanigans. I'm suspicious of this kind of humor from GH after big events, though I'm not sure how it's manifested in the past.






So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum. @GeneralHankerchief

GH looks more likely to be scum than Zack at this point in my eyes. Very conservative from him imo.

[Csargo]

Thought your EoD made you look awkward imo, still think you're town, but just thought it was bit concerning.

Oops

[Montmorency]

GH ISO PART II (2nd Half-day & EOD)

A.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

GH is getting more confrontational and voluminous in these stages, talking to more people. He confronts Pizza now, urging him to stop tunneling Logic and Csargo and townreading sheep; Logic is just like his Pokemon self. He agrees on Kage being townish, but "Kage is Kage, Logic is Logic, and one of them is definitely more naturally uncomfortable." Fredwood has a post contributing various reads, off-handedly mentioning that Reinoe's entrance was sloppy. GH picks up on this and asks about Reinoe, because he thought Renoe's entrance was fine.

Pizza resists GH on Logic, and GH agrees to check it out without changing his read in the meantime:

My context on Logic is way better than anyone else's.

Look for yourself. Pick a game, any game. Pizza's Logic=Townie challenge.

If you guys are just doing this to not be Pizza, that's not a good call or a good reason. But you do you.

If you ever get around to doing this, give me a real, honest assessment.

If you don't do a 180 I'm going to need a good explanation.

As opposed to a fake, scummy assessment?

Don't do it half assed or to confirm bias. Give it a real look where you can be wrong.

I don't mean to be insulting, but you're gonna go look to support your argument or refute me I think. Have an open mind.

GH agrees with Zack that consensus-wagon on D1 on a suspicious townie is unlikely to be productive, wants to diversify. Fredwood reiterates on why Reinoe's stance on Zack vis-a-vis Logic bothred him. Slaan asks whom GH is thinking about, and GH says some combination of Fred, Barto, and Reinoe, offering some commitment to be more active in the thread. Slaan asks why those three, and GH says "The three of them have actually posted and I don't really have a read on any of them.". Slaan is noncomittal. DP is OK with those candidates except Fred ("intermittent but genuine". Montmorency defends Fred to GH and asks for more on reinoe given that GH susses him but liked his entrance.

GH has looked at Barto and Fred, still has no idea on Barto, maybe lynch, it's a lazy read but GH doesn't care; Fred feels better, seems natural and focused, can be town for today. NOTE: GH supports himself with "I think it was dp(?) who said that while he was around he made some pretty good points, and here I agree pretty much", and this is something DP had just raised in a single sentence challenging his inclusion of Fred. This was just a ~20 posts and a couple hours back.

B.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

GH returns ~90 posts later with an ISO of Logic from Pokemon. Long post, but he concludes that Chess Logic is consistent with Pokemon Logic given the different circumstances of the early game in the two games, especially self-reinforcement of Pizza's pressure. Passive-aggressive comment to Pizza:

I don't think Pizza usually does it this early as mafia. Hopefully I'm just able to stop him from having it become one of Those Games this time and that's the end of that.

In fact, Pizza later complains that for all the insight GH missed Pizza's main point that Logic shouldn't be acting passive-aggressively, Logic should be more direct and forthright.

Right after the Logic defense, a Manasi vote:

In other news, I feel like poking the bear a bit.

Vote: Manasi

Zack asks how good GH is at reading Manasi, to which GH replies "reasonably well". Monty quibbles with GH about gamestates by noting that both Pokemon and Chess had 2 new players, with GH responding that Viper wasn't new. Monty asks why the Manasi vote, GH says to give it time. Winston likes Slaan's posts and general sense of towniness, to which GH adds that Slaan is a player who improves over the gamecourse and despite an early hiccup he unexpectedly doesn't want to lynch him. Winston feels "GH's big post looks townie in itself, but it feels a little scummy to me that he'd make that his main engagement with the thread at this stage."; GH explains he doesn't want to drown out the thread just for a low chance of being right. Winston thinks that's a weak post, clarifying so when Zack asks whom he refers to. GH asks Fredwood how often in his experience D1 consensus lynches have been correct, and asks why Fred is leaning Logic "unfortunately". Winston thinks Fred feels "real in the now", and GH asks how he feels about the "unfortunately" wording. Winston's response:

Contrived = scum?

Could be.

GH advances that Fred's wording if he doesn't care who is lynched between Barto and Logic doesn't make sense from town, and sounds like appeasement of Pizza; Fred finds this post manipulative. Fred explains "unfortunately" as feeling sorry/sympathetic for Logic, and defends the mehanics of consensus lynches to an extent. GH calls that lazy, because

you should vote for your biggest scumread regardless of context except for very specific exceptions.

This isn't one of them.

Fred is dismissive, and Winston doesn't like it at all:

Feels like Fredwood's playing 72/24, while GH is looking to eod.

Confrontation continues:

Winston: You might be right, I don't usually play 72/24, but can you explain how this is a Bad Thing?

Fred: My concern is still your wording, if you were fine with both wagons then I think you would have just left it at that.

Town play the day, scum play for the deadliine.

Vote: GH

Can you elaborate?

So now you're trying to direct what my response should have been? Saying that I have sympathy, something that I stated within the meat of the post, so it wasn't that much of an inference that the unfortunately meant that despite my humanity I'm likely to vote him. The wording is only misleading because you're actively altering the meaning.

Either way, I posted it because I felt like it and wanted people to know where I was at.

Couple that with your inference that I should not vote Logic because he's consensus and lolconensusisneverrightyouguyslol, then calling me lazy for not "voting" my top scumread (when Logic is a relatively top scum read)...tis strange.

Town's job is to use the time available to rebalance the information equation in its favour.

Scum's job is to ensure town guesses wrong at eod.

[To Xiahou] Zack is a bad vote.

Join me on GH.

For the town part you're generally correct, but I think you're oversimplifying the mafia's job. There's a lot more nuance to it, working on multiple levels to ensure both short and longterm success.

Luckily all I have to do is just say what's on my mind this game.

Show me the good stuff, GH.

Reinoe thinks out of all this Fred came out townie and GH awkward, but not sure if lynchable. Asks GH who his suspects are. Winston is prepared to place GH in his scumpile. Choxorn notes that townies control the day, so long days are good for information. Barto makes a rare post, and quoting GH on Reinoe he implies that Reinoe is bad because he voted Barto at some point.

C.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

In response to Reinoe, GH makes a long reads-post.

Zack
Kage
Monty

Dp101
reinoe
Slaan
Logic
Winston
ATPG

---town line---

Csargo
Xiahou
Cuth
Fredwood
El Barto

Choxorn
Manasi

Zack and Kage are high town, as well as 'Monty being Monty', but most leans are more-or-less null. Weird: Manasi is at the bottom of the pile, but GH doesn't mention her and proceeds to make a small case against Choxorn. Slaan asks why he has Logic so high up, compared to Xiahou, and asks GH/Pizza on their opinions of each other given they have opposite understandings of Logic's meta. GH responds that he still thinks Logic is consistent with meta, and the sample size is bigger than Xiahou's. GH repeats his notion that self-reinforcing pressure and Pizza tunneling on Logic have snowballed to the current situation.


GH is "bored" and votes Choxorn, making it third on the wagon after Zack placed the second vote. Kage asks why.

D.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Pizza makes his foreshadowed critique of GH's counter-case on Logic.

Thanks for looking at Logic, but I think you missed one of my biggest points and didn't look for it.

You saw his posts in another game as town, when he accused people, does he not consistently just say this post is scummy this person is a wolf I think this makes you more townie, his questions if any are more direct and mean what they appear to mean on the surface?

That's a highly highly consistent quality of his town game. He doesn't ask rhetorical questions or questions that undermine people in that manner, he doesn't do passive aggression. He's not highly aggressive but when he does it, it's pointed, and in fact, he does far more aggression (despite how mild it feels) in games than defending himself or anyone else.

And all of that solving is pointed and direct, not passive aggression.

I get how you're arriving at the conclusion that I'm just tunneling because I am, but if I'm tunneling on the right person and you're missing the biggest reason why it's right, I feel like we missed the chance for our minds to arrive at the same place.

I won't ask you to look again, but it was a massive part of what I wanted you to look for and I don't think you were looking for it. You found other stuff and I believe you're town, but I still think you missed the damning stark difference.

Kage suspects weirdness between GH and Winston, and asks about case on Choxorn, to which GH points to his previous post that Choxorn is not in line with meta. Notes that Winston probably town but no more extensive reads on him, doesn't respond to intimation of "weirdness" between the two.

With no context, GH says

Out of principle, I'm staying on Choxorn.

Read below for an account of the EOD CFD

EOD.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Zack begins CFD on Monty, calls thread boring for not following. DP feels CFDs don't help, and usually hurt town, and "interesting != winning".

GH emerges to call out DP given that he was once taken down as Mafia by a CFD. Votes DP.

Zack suddenly does not like DP, feels he gave him too much credit early. Calls GH "a gentleman and a scholar".

GH asks Zack to join him on CFD; DP should know the power of a successful CFD given that he suffered them as scum at least twice.

DP can't believe this. Pizza was right about Zack. Votes Zack. Zack calls it OMGUS.

Zack criticizes the Logic wagon as a waste of time or ~rand at best. If Logic is scum, he was bussed.

DP counters that successful CFDs shouldn't obscure the unsuccessful principle.

GH doesn't believe town DP would have had this thought given his personal track record.

Zack rejects DP's counter, if you only look at failures and ignore successes then you get a skewed impression. Votes DP.

Moving votes around at EOD puts wolves in awkward, uncomfortable spots and forces people to put their money where there mouth is. I don't understand the stance you're taking here.

GH urges, "VOTE DP DO IT".

Zack thinks DP is scum; EOD peels away masks and reveals true intentions. platitudinous? DP throws it back at Zack. Zack throws it back back.

Kage asks what a CFD is. Zack and GH explain the concept.

DP thinks CFD for its own sake is a bad idea and lynching through reasoning and process is a better strategy.

Slaan refuses CFD but thinks it looks bad for DP. Winston also rejects CFD (quoting GH's exhortation).

Zack says Monty and DP are better lynches than Logic, and DP's is distorting so NAGL.

DP calls GH desperate for begging for a DP lynch, can't consider either GH or Zack town anymore.

ROUND ENDS

THAT'S A LYNCH!

Pizza (1): Manasi

Zack (2): Xiahou, Dp101

Logic (6): Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn, Kagemusha, Winston Hughes, Csargo

Reinoe (1): Fredwood

Choxorn (3): Montmorency, Reinoe, Logic

Xiahou (1): El Barto

Dp101 (2): GH, Zack

Not voting (1): Cuthillius,

With 17 players there are 9 to hammer.


Standby for flip.

That's scum GH swooping in for opportunities, right? At EOD? And being opportunistic throughout the day? Like with Fred?

Vote: GH

Partner analysis with Zack is critical, but going just by proximity for now I'm oriented towards not partners. But then I would have to ISO Zack, and that's maybe too challenging for me. Nevertheless, my earlier gut read was suspicious of Zack, so if the two aren't partners past prima facie then something has to give.

[Montmorency]

I think if GH flips scum then it confirms a few of Pizza's musings, it helps lock DP and Winston and looks fairly good for Fred off his exchange with GH (see Part IIB above).

[Manasi]

I tried catching up with the last 2 days ish and then I saw people voting me so I just came to check if I was lynched and guys look I wasn't.

Logic scum?

OPkie.wrpifjowigj.

[Manasi]

Oh it was from a CFD.

[Dp101]

Oh it was from a CFD.

No, a CFD failed and that's why we still got the lynch. I highly recommend you read through Pizza's analysis and EOD itself to get a better picture of the current game state.

In other news, Pizza, why are you not dead?

[Csargo]

No, a CFD failed and that's why we still got the lynch. I highly recommend you read through Pizza's analysis and EOD itself to get a better picture of the current game state.

In other news, Pizza, why are you not dead?

Because that gives credence to his analysis. With him alive gives reasonable doubt to his analysis.

[Dp101]

Because that gives credence to his analysis. With him alive gives reasonable doubt to his analysis.

If he’s scum, he did nothing but tunnel his buddies all day. I don’t think that scum ever leaves him alive for wifom purposes because there’s no one alive who would (or at least should) tinfoil him. At this point I’m thinking either doc save (and there’s some other source of KP that killed Winston), redirector, or Pizza is horrifically wrong on something that winston was right on.

[Montmorency]

No, a CFD failed and that's why we still got the lynch. I highly recommend you read through Pizza's analysis and EOD itself to get a better picture of the current game state.

In other news, Pizza, why are you not dead?

Because that gives credence to his analysis. With him alive gives reasonable doubt to his analysis.

No one is going to gun after Pizza for not dying. It has to be either because Winston had more dangerous pushes and reads, or because Mafia thought their kill would fail (consider Logic flipping strongman).


DP beat me.

[Montmorency]

Actually I don't think so. Their leans meld pretty heavily.

Decide for yourself.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Winston 20 hours before EOD.

Zack
pizza
Monty
Fredwood
Dp101

Townpile.

GH
Logic
El Barto
Manasi
choxorn

scumpile

Slaan
Csargo
Kage
Cuth
reinoe
Xiahou

remainder

Residual Zack tinfoil.


EOD.

Vote: Choxorn

Vote with one of my top suspects on the counter-wagon to my #1 suspect?

I got a bussy feeling off chox's vote.

GH still top suspect. Willing to vote Choxorn. Choxorn bussing Logic.

Pizza's comprehensive night-post.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Drifting in an out of this game as other things catch my attention, but.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

I think I can only lock Winston Slaan Kage and dp right now, but I think all of the above three have enough where I could and potentially should find enough to lock them as well.



This was another good bit. I commented on it the first time but it bears repeating on Logic's flip.

This is pretty good. Not enough for a lock but serious consideration given. Will ISO in the morning. It is the morning, so after sleep.



I also want reinoe in the eventual town lineup, need to do the work to prove it first. This observation feels quite townie on Logic's flip. It could be a bridge too far, but I can't discount it. More important to me is if reinoe is scum/faking this post and I don't think so.

Keeping in mind my strong town read on Monty, the next tier is comprised of the following lock town candidates.

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

I have opinions and leans on the rest but nothing below is nearly as solid as the above.

If all 8 of the above are correct, I think I only need one more?

9 lock townies and 7 suspects is a solve, is it not? Or do I have my math wrong. Brain getting fuzzy. I literally just did it on my fingers and somehow I am still not sure I have that right. When the number of townies is two more than the number of lynches and the townies are all correct that's a solve, yes?

remaining:

GH
Csargo
El Barto
Zack
Cuthillius <---town lean
Manasi
Choxorn
Xiahou <--- town lean

And of those I wouldn't push Xiahou or Cuth, but I'd have to do a lot of diligent work on both before crowning them town. I had a good read on Cuth as being townie at one point too, but I feel like the others above are a tier above Cuth.

Ahh passing out by now. Yeah I really gotta stop here.

I think I could find one more townie if I had the time/energy. But because you can't let even one scum into the circle, I really have to put in serious work on fred/reinoe/monty/ ninth candidate.

Bah posting this, not even gonna look over it for mistakes.

[Csargo]

If he’s scum, he did nothing but tunnel his buddies all day. I don’t think that scum ever leaves him alive for wifom purposes because there’s no one alive who would (or at least should) tinfoil him. At this point I’m thinking either doc save (and there’s some other source of KP that killed Winston), redirector, or Pizza is horrifically wrong on something that winston was right on.

The tinfoil is always real Dp101, always.

Nah, you're probably right about the doc thing.

[El Barto]

I said I'd park my vote on GH for his twice-attempted counterwaggon to save Logic and I'll keep to it.
vote: GeneralHankerchief

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

See #1166 where I'd already corrected that.

I have still akin to 500 kilometers to drive home, but once there i am going to start showing my lines drawn to the air based on first day, in case i happen to perish n7ght one. My current conclusion is that GH should be default lynch for day two, unless something changes drastically.

Has anything changed drastically (other than for Winston, of course)?

Here he's going back and forth with Zack about how to read El Barto. I can see that Monty really wants to be able to read a slot that's difficult to read. On that note I'm fine with just leaving El Barto alone. It looks like he has a playstyle that will have me reading him scummy by default.

I am ashamed that I've been read this clearly this early.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Strongman necessarily means that we have a doctor or bulletproof and my guess ain't bulletproof.

Strongman also means the scums know to a large degree of accuracy that town has a doctor. Such a doctor would have only been targeting me last night, despite my prediction to cover Winston Hughes. If you recall I said he was a great alternative doctor protection. Other than me and Kage, no one got spewed more townie from yesterday, and Winston was the most consensus from that.

In other news, I sadly didn't shoot anybody.

Instead I pointed my finger and made a wish, and I said "pew pew pew", and obviously, my wish came true, as you can tell from the following diagram:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

For those of you who can't parse that, it means as of yesterday, I did not have a shot to use. Sadface. Like Ben Finegold getting crushed by Magnus. See diagram.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

That, class, is what we call a...? Vanilla townie. Correct!

Should I have been a Vanilla townie? No. Do we like that we couldn't shoot anyone last night? No. What do we say to that, class?

Boooo.

I should get a vig at the start of every game, right?. Otherwise vanilla is my favorite role to rand.

That's okay. Things are still coming up Fine and/or Gold, na mean? I feel like we'll get payback for Winston's death tout suite regardless.

[El Barto]

Why are you speaking French now, pizza? Planning on surrendering to the mafia?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Why are you speaking French now, pizza? Planning on surrendering to the mafia?

Walking into the worst joke ever. No one makes fun of the French except me, but in your defense, that's a far too advanced variation for you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I hear Nigel Short wrote a book, that one might be more your speed, know what I'm sayin'. It's got 15 pages, and most of that is the notes section at the end of the book.

[Askthepizzaguy]

When you're done with Short you can graduate and read a book by Mikhail Tal.

Baby steps.