Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Do you get how calling for the tie is like trying to artificially add to the competing wagon on day one and why it looks incriminating to me, Monty?

Yes, I admitted that to Slaan N1. Having a tie was the desired state, and I didn't think through how I was proposing for it to come about.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Have you calculated the effect of night kills?

Not properly. I was thinking it's basically 5-4 since we can lynch inside the five not in the town circle easily, but that's a day late and a dollar short. It's still 4-4 come morning unless a doctor saves us. Eventually that leads to a 2-2.

Even numbered remaining people screws with the calculations.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it ended in a 2-1 scenario that's game, but it's a coin toss instead.

[Csargo]

Not lock town? This is a travesty!

[Montmorency]

Standard 2 deaths per round. 4 lynches, 3 kills.

Predict only 1/4 locked survives to LYLO.

Choxorn
DP
Fred
Pizza

Csargo
Cuth
El Barto
Monty
Slaan
Xiahou

10: Slaan
8: Barto
6: Xiahou
4: Monty/Csargo/Cuth

But there's nothing new here. Actually, this is more arbitrary than I imagined. I can't really switch around people in the Lock/Lynch piles, or do so contingent on future lynches, because there's no new flips to distinguish lynches (effectively all town until game ends). No one can be cleared or spewed anymore (without role claims) because there are no more Mafia partners to lynch. I can't predict what new information changes the variables, so it becomes random if you make plans that deviate from Pizza's OG stable.

OK I was somewhat mistaken. You really do have to take it day by day.

[Fredwood]

Will someone please iso Monty and tell me if I should still have him in my town.

He's really in my blind spot, and I can't keep re-reading this game. I haven't slept at all today, because this game is stressing me the out.

I'm in the middle of it and I'm pretty much where I was before, he kind of feels villa but has nothing that means he can't be bad and a few things that mean he could.

I keep coming back to Slaan's placement of him. If Town Slaan is expanding POE in order to make sure he's not getting blindsided, there's nothing in Monty's Day 1 to lock clear him and I certainly don't see anything that means he couldn't be partners with Zack.

However there is some concern
#98 #170 is some suss on Zack. Accuses him of buddying DP, and also calls Zack for saying one thing but doing another.

#153 Votes Zack, but not in fully in a suss tone kind of egging him and Winston on. So again looks good, but not as good as it could be

#830 looks both bad and good at the same time, it's a hard suss backed up by a case, but he backs of and leaves it for later. The game state means it makes sense as either alignment, at least to me.

#808 Looks interesting in retrospect, not really sure what to do with it.

#919 Unvotes Zack and then votes Chox. Nothing really important here I guess other then he's the first to vote Chox I think, I can't tell, but he said himself he initiated the Chox wagon later. Also, wouldn't push Zack against Logic but willing to push Chox against the Logic.

#1017. Looks the worst from day one in retrospect. I think you called Slaan or Logic out for the tying the wagon stuff, when Monty was for it as well. Slaan, interestingly enough, susses the hell out of Monty for this in #1025.

It's pre associating Logic and Chox. However now we know a Chox lynch day 1 means Logic is the only possible lynch day 2. Could be seen as at least trying to buy a day to get the strongarm off. It's problematic for sure, but I have made ill-conceived posts as villa before, but I'm not that good of a player.

#1240 This was a post I remember and thought it originally looked good. Loses a bit with the last sentence. Says That it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum (with the qualifier of tentative conclusion...I'm being pedantic but you don't tentatively state an absolute like that /end English rant)

#1245 I still like this post, but a case could be made for prearguing suss.

There's another post, but for some reason my search of him returned only 4 pages, I might have to iso me to find what bugged me at the time because the meat of the post just lost me and I believe I sad something at the time.

Again This is maybe a bit confbias, but I don't know why Town Slaan would make up reads. He forgot his read on Winston, he forgot his hard suss on Monty, but now is lock clearing him, even though Monty has been pretty much in the same boat in my eyes since N1 for the last post I pointed to. In addition the F5 terminology when referring to Monty feels clunky AF. Am I crazy for thinking he wants a F3 with him, Monty and Bart?

I will say my Monty read has taken a bit of a hit (interesting that what I railed on Slaan today for is now what I feel like I'm doing with Monty). I don't really know now, I may have done the ISO all wrong but I did start out viewing his suss of Zack as a GL but devolved into looking for scummy behavior. I can see elements of crafty wolf in his day 1, but Slaan's day 4 has felt so bad that I can't really fully read Monty with Slaan around and I still think I'll be confused after. Then at the same time this whole day has been pretty much me, you, slaan and monty going back and forth, with the Chox bomb dropped in and a lot of passive observation by most everyone else in the thread.

Sigh. I'm a liar I guess there was more then one way I consider voting for Bart or Chox today. At this point I want to be the lynch today.

[Fredwood]

Also that took a lot effin longer then I thought.

[Montmorency]

#1240 This was a post I remember and thought it originally looked good. Loses a bit with the last sentence. Says That it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum (with the qualifier of tentative conclusion...I'm being pedantic but you don't tentatively state an absolute like that /end English rant)

That's not quite what I said.

So one thing about the early game that is strange is that GH is popping in once every big block of posts (e.g. 100) to ask a couple of questions, or make an hostile observation, or banter and vote. I'm not sure GH should be such of an itinerant normally, but maybe that's just unique timing and the regularity is pareidolia. Also, his range of substantive interactions is kind of limited to Zack and 'broadcast into thread'. I don't think that suggests partnership with Zack however, since at the very least IIRC GH and Zack like to get as much facetime with players other than their partners as possible in games they roll scum in. Without Zack ISO I think that spread matches Zack in this game better than GH. They would probably do similarly as town, but the point is that as scum GH is being rather more conservative.

Tentative conclusion: One and only one of these is scum.

[Fredwood]

That's not quite what I said.

One and only one of these is scum? You didn't say that?

[Montmorency]

One and only one of these is scum? You didn't say that?

I didn't say "it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum", either literally or in implication. I meant given what I read my prediction was that they were not paired. This does not mean that it is impossible for them to be paired.

[Fredwood]

#1649 Is the post I was referring to thinking, that's a lot of words without a lot of anything that makes sense to me.

He does address it later, but I was too busy getting bothered by Slaan to really notice.

It's interesting because from a point of view GH/Zack and Monty could be seen as controlled distancing each other. So lol why would scum say "Hey look for something that could paint me in a bad light" but loleasycreditlol.

[Fredwood]

I didn't say "it's only possible that one of Zack or GH is scum", either literally or in implication. I meant given what I read my prediction was that they were not paired. This does not mean that it is impossible for them to be paired.

I know, I was railing on your use of tentative with an absolute statement, I said as much that it was pedantic when you're saying I don't think they could be teammates. I mean I said as much myself at the time. The problem is that the way you state it feels more demonstrative then the way I did.

[Montmorency]

#1649 Is the post I was referring to thinking, that's a lot of words without a lot of anything that makes sense to me.

He does address it later, but I was too busy getting bothered by Slaan to really notice.

It's interesting because from a point of view GH/Zack and Monty could be seen as controlled distancing each other. So lol why would scum say "Hey look for something that could paint me in a bad light" but loleasycreditlol.

As long as you're reading me, give me your best shot.

I was railing on your use of tentative with an absolute statement

That's how it's typically used. You don't need to tentatively conclude that someone "might" be scum, because that's redundant.

[Fredwood]

As long as you're reading me, give me your best shot.



That's how it's typically used. You don't need to tentatively conclude that someone "might" be scum, because that's redundant.

Lol I'm nitpicking but I'm saying you shouldn't have said that at all, during the ISO I got to your wall and I had to stop and read it twice because the construction is more assertive then the wishy-washy EHHHH I don't think Zack could be scum with GH. Also you weren't implying "might" you were implying "not likely".

As far as reading you, I said where I'm at, I don't think I can seriously consider you right now with Slaan around. I've seen town do the things that bothered me during my ISO of you. I've never seen town forget demonstratively stated reads they've had.

Basically, I wouldn't have ISO'd if Pizza didn't ask, and I feel very conflicted about the Slaan flip. He's my biggest scum read, but I just really don't want him to be scum. Part of it is the response to legit issues with him, cus I do that often as town, but his initial response to pressure was really bad.

shrug

[Montmorency]

Lol I'm nitpicking but I'm saying you shouldn't have said that at all, during the ISO I got to your wall and I had to stop and read it twice because the construction is more assertive then the wishy-washy EHHHH I don't think Zack could be scum with GH. Also you weren't implying "might" you were implying "not likely".

I think it's clearer if you understand the GH ISO on why GH is scummy as separate from, though informing, the interaction analysis with Zack.

I don't know how to resolve Slaan; I've read his responses better than you or Pizza, but he may or may not be mechanically compromised.

[Fredwood]

I think it's clearer if you understand the GH ISO on why GH is scummy as separate from, though informing, the interaction analysis with Zack.

I don't know how to resolve Slaan; I've read his responses better than you or Pizza, but he may or may not be mechanically compromised.

If you're reading him better talk me down on the inconsistency or straight up forgetfulness of his reads. It's sticking in my craw right now. His response is he was just parroting Pizza, I never got the impression that that was something he'd do when I've seen him town before. Especially not to the point where he forgets the reads. Maybe I'm being too much of a stickler about it because I just remember my reads as either alignment so it might be projection or too much to expect everyone else does the same.

[El Barto]

Barto is in the POE and he's who I would have lynched today if Slaan's POE didn't look overly calculated.

What?

[Xiahou]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong.

[El Barto]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong.

I might have missed something, but why are you voting for him?

[Csargo]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong.

Sup?

[Xiahou]

[Csargo]

[Sooh]

Vote count:

Slaan (1): Montmorency,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,

Not voting (8): Choxorn, Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo Slaan, Pizza,

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:

[Sooh]

[Slaan]

Mainly, a vanilla townie does not claim that there was two kills on night one and names them, when one was visible.

I haven't seen that happen in my experience. I can't put you as a town read at this point because you never sufficiently explained how you could make such an odd speculation.

I havent ever seen a wolf anouncing his doc blocked night vig in thread for no reason.... but yea that appears to be the linchpin in your case against me and I can't defend from that. I was merely blindly speculating on possibilities and what else could've happened during the night (mainly because I thought the Winston kill to be odd but w/e) without giving it much thought, but that will become obvious after I flip or the game ends. Will stop defending myself overall from this as I don't see it going anywhere, if you think that I would make such a blunder then lynching me is the correct play for you and I can't fault you for that (doesnt change the fact that I think the case to be bad though but w/e, it's not like we have any slam dunk cases left anyway).

I will now pick up where I left off when rereading and see if I can get through the rest before EoD.

[Slaan]

You're not thinking this out mechanically. Mechanics are my bag, I pretty much avoid playing role heavy games because it just becomes a trivial spreadsheet solve a lot.

Think, how would he give me a shot on night 2 and then I also have a chance to use it on night 2?

Everything he does is one phase behind when we get to use it. He's got to give it to us at night, then by end of night we have a thing.

We can't use it before we receive it.

I figured it was given out the same night as it was used... or maybe the day before. Considering you wished for the vig during D2 iirc and then received it N2.. duno how this kind of role is handled though with such long nights, on my homesite the night is usually only one or two hours and everyone is kinda expect to be there for it when they have actions or tell the host before hand etc etc, having a night action that processes the following night is not something I've ever seen I think... not that it matters.

[Slaan]

Maybe he was just really primed from experience to look for roles, even if there wasn't direct or indirect evidence for them yet. I'm pretty sure I've also been suspected for going overboard with complicated speculation.

Leaving aside Slaan's play and interactions, or his response to your case (which I can't help but find genuine), is the whole case against him that single D2 "night kills" paragraph?

If the case hinges on that single point, and it's such a complex and unique point, then...

You make your case, I struggle with the premise, but other townie people acknowledge or even approve the premise, so it could be a legit case. Slaan's reaction is justifiably (or relatably) confused, and voluble and rejects the premise, but that premise is still hanging, either you believe in it or not and nothing Slaan can do either way changes it's role - it's unfalsifiable because any reaction could be defined as WIFOM. How is this resolvable?

Well, let's look at this gamestate. If we lynch Slaan we are breaking POE, which you thought inadvisable earlier and I encouraged planning for. It would be a really bad decision if it's wrong, or it could be the only thing that solves the game. We are already in bedlam, and town is in danger of losing the initiative you emphasized N1 when forming your faction tents and POE.

But now, whether or not we lynch Slaan, he's kind of poisoned in that if he survives to LYLO there remains at least a seed of suspicion...

I don't think you can lynch Slaan today without planning ahead the entire game, with several different paths or contingencies.

More people other than Pizza need to weigh in on the above, though of course Pizza does as well.

Perfect post. Though I think I'm being also suspected for the exact planning you are now proposing when giving a list and order of ppl I'd want to lynch (and also floated the idea that I wasnt sure about you and I'd consider lynching you around F5 or smth) because planning apparently means expecting mislynches which is somehow wolfy or smth, not quite sure myself on that one but I was accused something like that.

[Slaan]

As far as reading you, I said where I'm at, I don't think I can seriously consider you right now with Slaan around. I've seen town do the things that bothered me during my ISO of you. I've never seen town forget demonstratively stated reads they've had.

This is also a read that's weird to me. Especially as mafia I'd be careful on how my reads progress and make sure everything fits neatly together... just look at my readlists from the orchestrated chaos game:

Day 1 part1
Day 1 part2
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4

I don't forget reads as mafia.. and I don't make them up unless I can explain how I got there. As towny here on the the other hand I have other things on my mind and don't pay so much attention to my progression but why would I, got nothing to hide... which is probably not a good thing but I can't invest the energy over this long period of times lacking the motivation I'd have as mafia (I much prefer playing as scum...). In addition I had a hard work week, hosted a mafia game on my homesite (currently still running) and other private stuff going on so yea, me adopting someone elses reads whom I trust and then forgetting about it because it wasnt really my read is just something that happens apparently.

I mean I know that that's what happened, don't know if I can make you believe me.... or if it makes any difference as I doubt anyone would trust me come F3 or smth so might as well resolve me today if that clears other stuff up.

That being said I'm getting an uncomfortable feeling from Fred... why does he have problem in reading Monty as long as I'm around? Doesnt matter what my affiliation is, as either I'm scum then the game ends when I'm lynched or I'm town in which case the game proceeds... so they only way it makes sense to look at monty should be under the assumption that I'm town. Feels like he's setting up Monty to be another lynch candidate after I flip... not to mention that I feel his play is different from his wild west game. Feels way more aggressive here.. maybe that's only because I'm on the receiving end though (or because he was under fire in the WW game..).

[Slaan]

@reinoe

I'm somewhere around here right now:

Zack
Kage
Monty

Dp101
reinoe
Slaan
Logic
Winston
ATPG

---town line---

Csargo
Xiahou
Cuth
Fredwood
El Barto

Choxorn
Manasi

~~~~~~

Zack is obvious town, Kage I already talked about, Monty seems like usual Monty.

The people in the next best slot all are either matching their town meta or are otherwise helping push the gamestate along in a way I consider to be townie.

Xiahou I think might be town just off the two post reads but I'm not arrogant enough to move him up a tier for that. I don't really have a read on Csargo and Cuth is sort of improving for me since I voted him early on in the phase as he gets more engaged, but he's not there yet. Fredwood I need to take another look at now that we've had some distance from our interaction yesterday and how it went down.

I think the last quoted paragraph (there was a bit more in regards to Chox after that which I removed cuz w/e) has the last wolf in it... and I find the way the referes to all of them kinda scummy lol.
- Xiahou being townread off two posts even though Xiahou voted Zack who GH had as his top towny seems awfully forced
- Csargo.. not having a read on him (even though he had way more posts than Xiahou) and still mention him? He isnt mentioning Barto or Manasi who were also below his town line
- The way the emphazised that he voted on Cuth previously... reminding us that he bussed a mafia there?
- Fredwood... the weakest read of all but couldnt laugh when I read 'distance' here.
- Barto for not being mentioned I guess. But he also didnt mention Manasi or the entire non-top3 townies townpile.

[Slaan]

The Logic lynch was never in doubt from very, very early in this game.

Refusal to move off. Resistance to counters.

If he's town, wasted 72 hours.

If he's a wolf, he was bussed into the ground.

I love this. In the game I'm currently hosting (... taking a risk in saying this but I highly doubt any of the players of this german speaking forum are around here and reading this mafia game ^^) there was a strong wagon D1 on a towny and mafia then went in the thread after the flip and said 'well there was 100% at least one wolf on this wagon!'.. which there wasnt. Zack should also know that the first one attacked for being busser here would be Csargo, the only one on the Logic wagon I'm still iffy about, would be the #1 suspect for it. Considering how much energy he invested in saving Logic I doubt he'd do that to his fellow buddy. I think this looks good for Csargo (see, I'm not using 'lock town' or 'clearing' anymore -.- ;))