Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

wolfy

Yeah.

Good snap read. Feels correct in terms of both outcome and mindmeld.

choxy so conservative.

Where's the juice, choxy?

Mmm. Plus Zack and reinoe all saw it.

I think choxorn is a must-lynch here. He's always gonna be a question now and too many folks I'm pretty sure are town are coming to that conclusion.

Three scenarios, ordered most-to-least likely by my estimation:

1) pizza is town and correct about Logic

2) pizza is town and wrong about Logic

3) pizza is scum

Above questions re. pizza are due diligence, in recognition that pizza is better at getting townread as scum than as town (esp. on D1).

+1

My level of confidence in pizza's towniness and his read of Logic is a new sensation.

I want to prod at it before it's either confirmed or questioned by the flip.

Phrasing here has ring of truth and feels townie.

What's the likely hood that pizza is scum and logic is town?

What's the likely-hood that pizza is scum and he's bussing his partner into the ground?

The first is impossible and it's still more likely than the second one. I've talked at length about how bad this is. Only a select few can get away with it and I in particular am not one of them, as I don't have late game staying power unless most of my buddies made it to the middlegame and I controlled who lived and died well. My impact on the game has to come soon, and by impact, I mean dead townies. I need me some dead townies. Even if I'm not the one pushing them hard.

If I'm distancing from my partner, it's designed to not cause death, just make me look good later.

I'm seriously more likely to have randed town and secretly been mafia all along than the latter. I believe I told my scum buddies to bus me hard in a recentish game as scum, the one with Monty and El Barto as my partners, but that's because I know I don't have late game staying power and they very much do. And it also would have only worked because I'm so vocally against it as a valid strategy. It was a one time trick that didn't even play out the way I envisioned, and now people will expect such a thing is possible, when it's not a good idea. The rest of that game even proved it was way better to have me alive, so it's still a shitty strategy.

Look I still feel kinda bad (kinda lol as well) about the one time I accidentally killed Monty on day 1 with my lone vote that got a last minute second vote, and then I had to solo the game. I'm really not big on bussing anyone on day one, especially as something I would get the lion's share of the credit/blame for. If he's scum, it's bad that I never get murdered. If he's town, I look like shit and I did it to get rid of Logic, who is easy middlegame lynchbait. If I'm gonna trade myself it's gonna be for someone who isn't a more crucial mislynch down the line. Like dp101, for example, because he clears himself later on.

When I do bus my buddies it's day 2 onward, middlegame or late game. And even then, I almost always choose some buddies and defend them. You might have seen me do this before if you visit many sites. My scum game has a lot of repeating characteristics because they work well. They'll stay that way until they don't.

Pizza is a known busser, but given it's D1 and he's leading the bus, he and his partners individually don't get any advantage (since Pizza would have to die tonight).

This could be possible if Pizza is planning a 180 or the discovery of an urgent new wagon and abandons the Logic wagon. But it would happen so fast it would only be evident retroactively.

Truer words can't be found. I wrote the above before getting to this post, and damn.

Despite having played a fair few games together I don't have a clear meta on Cuth's style.

The main thing I've found consistent between games is his inconsistency within each game. He'll be waxing hard scummy to me, then flip it right around with a moment of keen insight or a burst of plausible mindset progression. And then go right back to looking scummy again.

Cuth is a scummy looking townie and I'd say fair at taking advantage of a mediocre town when he's scum, not necessarily quickly catchable.

I need a really specific thing to latch onto that makes him town. Otherwise he's a tough read and gives lots of false flags.

Like, the confidence I had that he was town in XCOM was partly mechanics related and partly related to a couple really specific brainwaves I felt confident I could bet the farm he couldn't fake. But that combo was needed when he pushed me, because it would have shaken me otherwise.

Think I'll cut this post here and continue.

[Slaan]

That's a long post about why you'd never be scum in this situation... I didnt even bother to read all of it because self-meta analysis is often bad to begin with ;).

I'd agree that you and Logic are never w/w. Imo such a play would require you two to have agreed to in in wolfchat and then I'd expect Logic to still be around... only exception here would be that Logic knows he won't have time to play this game after all and says 'bus me hard' or smth... duno, ppl that know Logic (outside of pizza obviously) would that be a possibility? That's high level tinfoil territory though so maybe only something to consider going into lylo or w/e, just figured I'd share on this front.

You being w and Logic town? Sure why not, 'as wolf I'd never push a mislynch so hard' is not an unheard of defence... even townies often come to that conclusion - it's a valid strategy.

Doesnt mean that I think you are scum, just that I'm not one to buy such defences :)

[Kagemusha]

I sense something between GH and Winston. I cant point my finger into it yet, but i hope others will oit it under scrutiny as well. Maybe its just one of them, but my gut is giving strange vibes. GH can you elaborate concerning Chox and also wgat you think about Winston?

[GeneralHankerchief]

I sense something between GH and Winston. I cant point my finger into it yet, but i hope others will oit it under scrutiny as well. Maybe its just one of them, but my gut is giving strange vibes. GH can you elaborate concerning Chox and also wgat you think about Winston?

I pretty much had my big post about Choxorn already, the long story short of it is I don't think he's within his town meta.

Here's the link

[GeneralHankerchief]

Oh right, the Winston part.

Town, probably, don't have a bigger read on him than that right now.

[Kagemusha]

I think Logig is far better lynch then Chox at this point. Lurk for a ehile and wait to get out eith evetual counter wagon. Cheess!

[Slaan]

I think Logig is far better lynch then Chox at this point. Lurk for a ehile and wait to get out eith evetual counter wagon. Cheess!

Hm, I'm torn tbh. Logic could've had real rl issues and if he can start being more active starting next day that would be good... Chox on the other hand seems to have displayed his commitment to this game and it doesnt look like it'll get better.... Then again my read on Logic is a bit stronger and his lynch would give us max infos after he was talked about so much so I'll stay on Logic me thinks