Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[El Barto]

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

How so?

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way.

[Cuthillius]

so we're sheeping pizza right

still think zack's town, still think dp's probably town

[Slaan]

No sheeping. Get reads yourself and follow those... we need everyone to put in work so everyone can be sorted.

[Askthepizzaguy]

That "cfd" attempt onto either Monty or dp101, both of those attempts look godawful.

Think both targets are strongly townie.

I had town leans or strong town leans on both Zack and GH at one point but this is not two townies interacting, as I'm reading this.

I don't seriously think they believed the cfd attempt would work, given the time frame and the fact that we're on the org, and who might have been online at the time. I don't think they thought they could really save Logic, I think more serious attempts at that were made by both over the course of the round, in their own unique styles.

Here, I think they didn't know what to do and both choxorn and logic look like correct lynches, and that they both look like butt for defending Logic, so the play was confusion, stick to their meta of being in favor of cfds so they could at least look like they had no idea a scum was about to flip.

Plus there's always a chance some townie moves off of Logic and choxorn becomes snipe bait. If choxorn is town, this is a good way to destroy all of the positive progress being made on d1, and if he's scum, this at least is some kind of attempt at confusion.

I think both were at a loss for a better move under the circumstances. Just flat out pushing choxorn over Logic even if choxorn is town isn't a great play in the long term because Logic really looked bad by the end of that day and he'd probably have been revisited on choxorn's town flip especially with end of day shenanigans.

I don't think the random cfd attempts were significantly worse, and certainly less straightforward and readable, than simply pushing a more sincere-looking alternative to either, or just plugging away at the hope choxorn dies.

I really don't buy some of their suspects and the reasons why, and their arguments for why Logic was town were scummy. The dp push from both just makes me feel gross when looking at it.

I'll still go back and iso both, try to look at things from a body of work perspective, but I am sensing a lot more interest in chaos and unreadability and trying to make day one worthless than actual solving from both, particularly as the day wound down.

If either or both are townies I have my work cut out for me, and we all do, because it's quite bad on several re-reads.

I also gotta say, both of their posts after the flip felt awkward, like they weren't really sure what the town reaction should be to that. I don't want to read too much into that or give it a lot of weight, but I was all gung ho to give them both a shot at looking townie, and I am seriously wondering how either one has credibility at this point.

It wasn't lolcatting but it sure felt like desperation and trickery rather than sincere towning.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think both have too much experience being scums to collapse in such a way so visibly or dramatically, but I'm having a hard time denying what I'm looking at.

I really had better sleep, and focus on town-building when I wake up. All of this seems too easy but it doesn't feel townie either. Don't know what to make of it.

[Slaan]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

[Fredwood]

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

Eh it's possible I guess. I just think if he's scum he knows bussing Logic there buys him no equity so better to take the contrarian stance to fuel WiFoM.

I don't see the CFD as an attempt to save Chox though, I mean it's only put Chox further in the towns crosshairs if anything, personally I was 100 percent null on Chox before reading EoD.

It might be possible that Chox and GH aren't aligned. (IE Bad GH tries to make the VillaChox lynch more likely to save his actual partner who could also be on the chopping block). However I'm already WIFOMing the hell out that. Anybody know if GH is Sicilian?

[Kagemusha]

I have still akin to 500 kilometers to drive home, but once there i am going to start showing my lines drawn to the air based on first day, in case i happen to perish n7ght one. My current conclusion is that GH should be default lynch for day two, unless something changes drastically.

[El Barto]

See post #1137

Typo fixed.

[Choxorn]

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way.

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

[Dp101]

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

I know I'm not him, but I don't necessarily have problems with this right now. Reinoe has had very inconsistent tone between his posts, and there isn't that much clearing him. I'll have to reread EOD first though because I need to confirm whether or not Logic's flip clears you at all.

[Slaan]

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

1337 15 743 83773|2 /V|_||\/|83l2 740|_|64

[Csargo]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

[Dp101]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

[Csargo]

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

My best guess is they got bored and were never really convinced Logic was scum, so they went in search of someone else. Awful idea in hindsight, but everything is an awful idea in hindsight. There's little chance they'd both do that as scum I don't think.

[Csargo]

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

So to answer the first question, yeah I'd say it's probably more of a townie action than a scum action, however misguided it may have been.

[reinoe]

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

[reinoe]

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

[Montmorency]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

This is an important setup. The question may hold the key to the game.

If that was scum behavior, then it was either anti-spew or lolcatting supreme like you don't see often outside of when Csargo got outed by Zack in Pokemon. And that was a totally different context with different people, lasting throughout a day rather than a few minutes of EOD.

If that's coordinated scum action, then how many layers of WIFOM are we talking? Assume 2 dead per round, we have 7 more lynches left. How does this help them survive 1 teammate down?

If only one of the two is scum, then trying to divine the rationale may be pointless; better off mechanically flipping or otherwise clearing one of the two through normal game course and process.

Pokemon GH, you could say, proved capable of risky EOD moves for no immediate payoff (he tied two townies IIRC), but that was tying the vote to produce confusion, not CFDing to protect a partner or otherwise. The crucial thing is that, aside from me, DP, and Slaan who were around to see it during EOD, he was only playing in a way that muddies his own image (as was Zack). They had the spotlight, and no one was implicated in anything, so you can't say it sets up scrutiny of a townie or furthers a mislynch down the line.
@Askthepizzaguy, I don't think I'm capable of doing analysis of Zack beyond gut reads. Could you look at that set of D1 content from Swords and Sorcery I collated? By the time of my posting that



Pizza's townies:

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

Let's see, there's no point in tinfoiling Pizza right now, Kage was solid on Logic throughout the day (as well as an early advocate of Pizza's case), and DP was 2nd or 3rd to join that wagon. If we had m/m wagons, these two even going only off timing are acceptable locks. Winston is kind of playing at high-level independently, and without checking also early on Logic (2nd?). Not sure if that's the case for Slaan, but off the top of my head my impression of Slaan is as insightful, helpful, and challenging in a consistent way, but there aren't notable single instances that ping me heavily towards one alignment or another. I was struck that smiley post reaching out to Choxorn earlier on, but purely by content it's NAI.

So I wouldn't lock Slaan, and having no "candidate locks" would place him in a 50%+ town (i.e. 75%+) category alongside Fred. Reinoe, may be turning out inconsistent like Viper in Pokemon, so as of now only a light town read.

Pizza's the-rest: Individuals need substantive treatment, but I don't have any new opinions on Manasi and Barto beyond null, and Xiahou hasn't had more than a couple posts. As for Csargo, I don't agree on how you're treating him for early D1, that even as he's doing just fine past the beginning of the game you pre-emptively rule out any opportunity for him to post himself into Town. Choxorn since EOD is unremarkable, sussing Reinoe so if that's where he's pushing the two less likely a team.

I still need to see how the EOD wagons can be anaylzed wrt this group.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

[No Montmorency post quoted]

(;¬_¬)

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Barto voters, in your last few minutes of this round, compare what your feelings are on El Barto to the quoted post in 1985.

Csargo gotta go.

[Fredwood]

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.

Ultimately when it comes to my view of GH, (Similar to where I'm at with SLaan) there was enough wtf is he doing to vote for him, but I still had doubts because I don't think I should be able to catch scum GH so easily. So from my perspective, I can see how Csargo makes that post.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.

Ultimately when it comes to my view of GH, (Similar to where I'm at with SLaan) there was enough wtf is he doing to vote for him, but I still had doubts because I don't think I should be able to catch scum GH so easily. So from my perspective, I can see how Csargo makes that post.

I believe the fourth scum absolutely has to push the narrative that one of GH or Zack are not scum for that EOD, and saying both might not be scum is the best. Also, since people aren't suspecting him hard after the Logic bus, he's the only wolf really capable of selling that narrative.

[Slaan]

Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.

Me too btw. I think it's the normal reaction to the way those two buddied each other (which kinda makes me suss everyone a bit who hasnt but considerings its mainly pizza that heroshotted Zack it's hard to argue ^^)

[Csargo]

Bingo.

This is much more condemning.

I'd lynch Csargo over this post for sure.

This is the narrative that pretty much HAD to be spoken by the final scum.

I posted the reality of the situation, it still doesn't make sense to me tbh. Why would I do this as scum?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I posted the reality of the situation, it still doesn't make sense to me tbh. Why would I do this as scum?

Do what?

I don't know what you're referring to, if it's in the post or your previous sentence. Clarify?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.

Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.

Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).

That's the biggest issue.

red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.

Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.

It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.

Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.

I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.

Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't think I'll be okay with pushing Xiahou personally at any point.

My POE is putting him into the town side.

Still looking for a scum game of his.

If he's got one that matches this game, all bets are off.

[Askthepizzaguy]

After a kill, we're at final 8, which gives us 3 lynches.

Csargo/Cuth/Slaan/Monty

In approximately that order. Shame I have 4.

If one dies and is town, lynch the rest.

[Csargo]

Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.

Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.

Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).

That's the biggest issue.

red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.

Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.

It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.

Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.

I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.

Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.

Have you noticed a pattern to most of my arguments this game Pizza?

Do you disagree with the sentiment behind the argument? I wasn't trying to dissuade anyone, I was trying to understand the strategy behind it. I still don't get it, such a bizarre thing. It was meant as an objective look at their actions, since I wasn't a fan of either at that point, it probably failed to be that.

I don't blame you for thinking I'm scum, I haven't done a great job this game of making sound arguments. If I was scum I never would have tried to give a reason for voting Zack D1, I would have just moved on. I wouldn't have voted Logic over Choxorn in that situation D1.