I know I'm not him, but I don't necessarily have problems with this right now. Reinoe has had very inconsistent tone between his posts, and there isn't that much clearing him. I'll have to reread EOD first though because I need to confirm whether or not Logic's flip clears you at all.
I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.
@Askthepizzaguy
earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?
I don't know. At this point I don't trust a certain group of people, but I feel like I can more reliably find my townies.
Gonna do that. I could harp on and on endlessly about how scummy x y and z are, but I have too many so some of it is wrong.
I get the feeling if I go based on what looks scummy to me I could swing-and-a-miss on the next guess, and then we can get off track.
What do we know? Well some people look townie and they got there in a way that was well earned, and I feel like going through those one by one is my better bet. Make the town circle.
Because if Xiahou is scum, I'm not finding that in his posts so far. I might not before I die. If Manasi is scum, that might be based off of a post or two that felt wrong to me, but I don't have a strong case. If it's GH or Zack I can't tell which one right now, if it's both I don't know if I convince this crowd, see Csargo's argument for why.
I don't know if I can get what scum remain outside my town into a nice, tight lynching knot that's exactly right.
What I do think is that I can find 8 townies by midnight tonight, especially since I've got half of them and what I feel are good leads on 3 additional ones.
If I find that 8th townie, and if all are right, and I convince you guys not to eat each other when I die, shit like being unable to read Xiahou or Manasi or Zack or GH or Csargo or choxorn town when they are won't begin to matter.
It won't matter, it's still a win. Maybe a sloppy win, but when all the scums have left to do is count down to the day when their POE number comes up, that's gonna be extremely demoralizing. Like repeated punches to the stomach that knock all the wind out of 'em.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
@Askthepizzaguy
earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?
This is an important setup. The question may hold the key to the game.
If that was scum behavior, then it was either anti-spew or lolcatting supreme like you don't see often outside of when Csargo got outed by Zack in Pokemon. And that was a totally different context with different people, lasting throughout a day rather than a few minutes of EOD.
If that's coordinated scum action, then how many layers of WIFOM are we talking? Assume 2 dead per round, we have 7 more lynches left. How does this help them survive 1 teammate down?
If only one of the two is scum, then trying to divine the rationale may be pointless; better off mechanically flipping or otherwise clearing one of the two through normal game course and process.
Pokemon GH, you could say, proved capable of risky EOD moves for no immediate payoff (he tied two townies IIRC), but that was tying the vote to produce confusion, not CFDing to protect a partner or otherwise. The crucial thing is that, aside from me, DP, and Slaan who were around to see it during EOD, he was only playing in a way that muddies his own image (as was Zack). They had the spotlight, and no one was implicated in anything, so you can't say it sets up scrutiny of a townie or furthers a mislynch down the line.
@Askthepizzaguy, I don't think I'm capable of doing analysis of Zack beyond gut reads. Could you look at that set of D1 content from Swords and Sorcery I collated? By the time of my posting that
Pizza's townies:
Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101
Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty
Let's see, there's no point in tinfoiling Pizza right now, Kage was solid on Logic throughout the day (as well as an early advocate of Pizza's case), and DP was 2nd or 3rd to join that wagon. If we had m/m wagons, these two even going only off timing are acceptable locks. Winston is kind of playing at high-level independently, and without checking also early on Logic (2nd?). Not sure if that's the case for Slaan, but off the top of my head my impression of Slaan is as insightful, helpful, and challenging in a consistent way, but there aren't notable single instances that ping me heavily towards one alignment or another. I was struck that smiley post reaching out to Choxorn earlier on, but purely by content it's NAI.
So I wouldn't lock Slaan, and having no "candidate locks" would place him in a 50%+ town (i.e. 75%+) category alongside Fred. Reinoe, may be turning out inconsistent like Viper in Pokemon, so as of now only a light town read.
Pizza's the-rest: Individuals need substantive treatment, but I don't have any new opinions on Manasi and Barto beyond null, and Xiahou hasn't had more than a couple posts. As for Csargo, I don't agree on how you're treating him for early D1, that even as he's doing just fine past the beginning of the game you pre-emptively rule out any opportunity for him to post himself into Town. Choxorn since EOD is unremarkable, sussing Reinoe so if that's where he's pushing the two less likely a team.
I still need to see how the EOD wagons can be anaylzed wrt this group.
[No Montmorency post quoted]Originally Posted by Pizza
(;¬_¬)
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Barto voters, in your last few minutes of this round, compare what your feelings are on El Barto to the quoted post in 1985.
Csargo gotta go.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Saying both isn't likely is odd, but I know Monty and myself both said, that we didn't think that they could be scum together. The timing and both of them were jumping on the grenade just didn't make sense for teammates to do. My guess is they both came to the decision to pounce on the same thing independently.
Ultimately when it comes to my view of GH, (Similar to where I'm at with SLaan) there was enough wtf is he doing to vote for him, but I still had doubts because I don't think I should be able to catch scum GH so easily. So from my perspective, I can see how Csargo makes that post.
I believe the fourth scum absolutely has to push the narrative that one of GH or Zack are not scum for that EOD, and saying both might not be scum is the best. Also, since people aren't suspecting him hard after the Logic bus, he's the only wolf really capable of selling that narrative.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Vote count:
El Barto (3): Montmorency, Slaan, Choxorn,
Csargo (2): Xiahou, Pizza,
Not voting (5): Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo
With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.
EOD4:
![]()
Right but Monty and myself were both selling that. In fact I was doubting my suss of GH. I think it goes back to the first point you made in the iso. The you're not doing much in your posts suss is not something you throw at a teammate who has some deep wolf cred.
Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.
Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.
Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).
That's the biggest issue.
red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.
Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.
It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.
Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.
I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.
Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
I don't think I'll be okay with pushing Xiahou personally at any point.
My POE is putting him into the town side.
Still looking for a scum game of his.
If he's got one that matches this game, all bets are off.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
After a kill, we're at final 8, which gives us 3 lynches.
Csargo/Cuth/Slaan/Monty
In approximately that order. Shame I have 4.
If one dies and is town, lynch the rest.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Have you noticed a pattern to most of my arguments this game Pizza?
Do you disagree with the sentiment behind the argument? I wasn't trying to dissuade anyone, I was trying to understand the strategy behind it. I still don't get it, such a bizarre thing. It was meant as an objective look at their actions, since I wasn't a fan of either at that point, it probably failed to be that.
I don't blame you for thinking I'm scum, I haven't done a great job this game of making sound arguments. If I was scum I never would have tried to give a reason for voting Zack D1, I would have just moved on. I wouldn't have voted Logic over Choxorn in that situation D1.
I didn't notice a pattern as I wasn't looking for such, what was the pattern?
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Found another Xiahou game.
Mafia VII Shadows of the Mafia, Xia had 29 posts.
He was town. You could talk after death in that game. The pattern is between 1 and 3 posts per day on average, with frequent gaps where he doesn't post at all that day.
Need to check the old database and see if he was ever even scum once.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
Stickied at the top of the forum:
link
XiahouGameroom Statistics (link) - Contains statistics on games and mafia players. Awesome job, Romanic! (note: not updated since 2011)
Mafia: 3 games (1 win, 2 losses, 0 draw, 0 WOG, 0 replaced) - Survived 1 time
As of 2011 (database is OOOOOLD and hasn't been updated)
I can keep looking. What else am I gonna do tonight.
#Winstontoostrong
#Montytoostronger
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