Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Slaan]

*checks reddit* *checks back here* oh look more questions :D

So why is Chox in your POE? His spew case is just as valid as Barts, in my mind it's better then Bart's. It isn't because he's acting scummier, the entirety of peoples read on Chox is because of what people have said or done to him this game.

Havent gotten to Chox yet and went on him off my memory. I recall his push unlikely to succeed and thus being a good bus target after failing to save Logic for GH/Zack. I also think his posts were scummy on top of that, so that might cloud my judgement... I won't comment on that further till I have 100% reread this thread.

This looks more like directing the vig than a claim or crumb, but it could be a crumb.

Also looks like directing the vig to Barto, but now that it's repeated it feels crumb-y.

Much later, and referring to Zack:

After those two posts, Slaan goes:

Strange post. Why assume mafia have a NK and a vig, especially if you've been hinting you are a vig?

...

Are you an odd night vigilante, Slaan?

I'm not anything but VT my friend. And yes ofc I was keeping the facade of my vig claim alive and I actually thought you were the vig and kinda annoyed with the game or w/e to make those open claims... so that was my natural reaction. It didnt occur to me that you could be fake claiming as well as... well that is rather wonky from my already fake claimed perspective... so I wanted to - as low key as possible - insert that I made a similar claim earlier.

Later on I just let me thoughts flow without much strategy behind them, the vig claming wasnt really something I actively pursued, just mentioned it when it seemed fitting and then did my own thing.. I don't think I had it on my mind when I made this last post you quoted. This post came iirc from my believe that you are the vig so I figured if you are a vig and we have a doc (strongman indicates as much) then mafia also most likely has a vig so this comment was born. I'm still not really familiar with the roles you guys use as my homeforum has a certain set im meta with fixed roles that just get play all the time (one time doc that gets told the NK each night, 2x oneshot vig, cop) so I felt/feel like in dark waters when it comes to closed games such as this....

I realised how stupid this line of inquiry was when I made the post, see the last sentence... but as town I always figure to just say what I think so ppl can follow my process better and it should help them read me town... I got nothing to hide and all that. If this gets me mislynched here I might have to reconsider this policy ^^

Now I'm really off though, bb :)

[Montmorency]

Forgot to include Reinoe in blue.

And Kage.

3) Why the fuck would I ever vig Winston of all ppl in N1? I didnt have a read on him at

all at this point, I would've killed off one of my townreads so I could develop Winston

however I saw fit. Why kill of a null from my pile instead of Kage of dp? Makes no sense
4) What the fucking fuck did I do other than that? So I'm a vig... ok. Not a regular vig,

no additional kills N2 or N3. Odd night vig? But then I'd have to have vigged myself last

night... that doesnt quite seem likely. One shot vig? Then why _THE FUCK_ would I vig in

N1? I was in zero danger, I was part of the town core. Keep it holstered, play the game

quietly etc etc... you know, what I'd have done if I was actual part of mafia. Why waste it

N1 on Winston?

This entire case is Pizza getting unsecure because Manasi didnt work out, getting called

out for it and now and needing to find someone he misread previously to push today to

cement his hero image... which will only take a deeper dive after he mislynched me over

this bullshit case.

To be fair, at that point you weren't solo yet and Zack/GH killing Winston is pretty

plausible from their meta and IIRC they were backed into town-reading him by the end of D1

or before.

It has had its ups though, Monty is now secured in my town pile. He stood up for me

early and asked the correct questions, as mafia he could've just been happy pizza threw out

one of his cores... (though his vote on me in the end doesnt look too good.. why make that

if he wants to reconsider.......... >_>)

It makes it harder for Pizza to back down on a whim, it encourages you to confront the

issue (though I'm not sure how the logic can be challenged internally or what would change

Pizza's mind),and establishes the wagon for others' reactions to be measured.

Also, you had Chox below GH for that upcoming day 2, which falls

in line with the concerted attempt that Zack and GH had to push Chox day 2. Your post

about your GH/Chox theory would further back this up

At the time I contested this theory.

1st because a Logic bus doesn't help GH because he can use the overtly contrarian stance to

prop up WIFOM.

2nd because that wasn't a move designed to save Chox. Chox was in no danger of being

lynched, in fact the only ones really pushing him were Zack and GH, so it's clouding the

game state implying there was two actual wagons. It also further increased the chances of

the Chox lynch Day 2 so it did nothing to distract away from a scum teammate. You were

playing the role of the "logical townie" to try and see if the Chox and GH are scum theory

works but never was able to fully pursue it because distancing.

It's also interesting to not the places of GH and Chox on your post here. This seems to

indicate you want to Lynch GH next phase but are willing to switch to Chox, but the post

you make later is one that indicates Chox is your number one suspect in a tier by himself.

Oh crap, I quoted that earlier today but I read it as "always lynch [GH] over Chox

tomorrow"; it's the opposite. It is totally consistent with an intent, at least during N1,

to deflect from GH.

The best counter then is, why would Slaan's partners drop the ball on him? Instant

demoralization? I suppose Pizza would say the putative failed Mafia vig would do that to

them, but would they really have expected Pizza to be unprotected with that arrangement of

PRs? To not even try and leave Slaan hanging?

Re: Choxorn wagon D1, given the late reveal I assume it was an attempt to latch onto a

(nother) dark-horse, low-post wagon and hope it gained traction. With 5 votes at one point

it did present a challenge, or at least the only plausible alternative to, the Logic wagon.

This could be spew for Barto, but on the other hand as I said they didn't try for very hard

or very long to push Barto.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you typing these up in Word or Wordpad, and getting double spaced?

The formatting of that post is strange.

Posting via phone maybe.

[Montmorency]

Are you typing these up in Word or Wordpad, and getting double spaced?

The formatting of that post is strange.

Posting via phone maybe.

From time to time the site eats posts, so I did that one mostly in Notepad.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok. I get it.

The site was wonky for me earlier today as well.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I reread dp again just in case I got snowed by his earlier work. If he's scum here then I cannot catch him. It's flawless. I could see a distancing motive from Zack and GH, but the same principle applies to choxorn. You have to just assume the outcome, it's not possible to reach it decisively. If I'm going to play that way I should skip 18 hours of analysis today and just flip coins.

Fredwood is similarly a picture of perfection, with less likelihood of distancing tactics from GH and Zack. The passive aggression directed at him seemed real.

Choxorn lock.

Me lock.

That's 4 locks we don't lynch today, and 6 remainders.

If I find one townie and it's correct, and the above are correct, the game is still locked.

I even called for the town doctor to hard claim, if we have one, that locks the game as well.

We lynch outside of the 5 locks and it should be a win.

Looks like we'll end up in a final 4 if it comes to that, and from your own perspective Monty, the game should be locked, because you're not in the above pile at present.

Outside is Csargo, Barto, you, Cuth, Slaan, and Xiahou.

I just feel like we should be able to find a townie in this pile and lock things away. I have strong bets on several of them.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Do you get how calling for the tie is like trying to artificially add to the competing wagon on day one and why it looks incriminating to me, Monty?

[Montmorency]

Do you get how calling for the tie is like trying to artificially add to the competing wagon on day one and why it looks incriminating to me, Monty?

Yes, I admitted that to Slaan N1. Having a tie was the desired state, and I didn't think through how I was proposing for it to come about.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it ended in a 2-1 scenario that's game, but it's a coin toss instead.

[Montmorency]

Explain the reasoning behind this idea.

KISS principle applies here. Unless we're planning on lynching Fredwood or dp101 at some point, or choxorn or me, we went from a locked position to a near lock.

Near lock means we still win most of the time. The mafia has to be exactly the wrong person and everyone needs to let them go for them to win.

I ended up with like 10 townies outside of choxorn, and choxorn makes 11. Why can I not afford to kick out one or two "locks" when their interactions with the dead scums look incriminating, why does it need excessive planning.

This is part of why I suspected Slaan in the first place. Since when do we absolutely have to plan out failure until final 3?

If we're dead we're not influencing those lynches anyway, only the survivors will.

Alright, assume no new planning - summarize what the game looks like from there on.

It seems to me that every time the game doesn't end with a lynch, we will have to rewrite the landscape. Each time.

Whether it's a game with 1 lock or 2 locks or more, we always have had to plan ahead eventually - because the game isn't over.

Once it's over, there's no more planning to be had.

?

At the time, before the recent deaths.

I can't be bothered to go back and actually count, but from where I sit, the don't lynch people still outnumber the do lynch pile.

Have you calculated the effect of night kills?

I reread dp again just in case I got snowed by his earlier work. If he's scum here then I cannot catch him. It's flawless. I could see a distancing motive from Zack and GH, but the same principle applies to choxorn. You have to just assume the outcome, it's not possible to reach it decisively. If I'm going to play that way I should skip 18 hours of analysis today and just flip coins.

Fredwood is similarly a picture of perfection, with less likelihood of distancing tactics from GH and Zack. The passive aggression directed at him seemed real.

Choxorn lock.

Me lock.

That's 4 locks we don't lynch today, and 6 remainders.

If I find one townie and it's correct, and the above are correct, the game is still locked.

I even called for the town doctor to hard claim, if we have one, that locks the game as well.

We lynch outside of the 5 locks and it should be a win.

Looks like we'll end up in a final 4 if it comes to that, and from your own perspective Monty, the game should be locked, because you're not in the above pile at present.

Outside is Csargo, Barto, you, Cuth, Slaan, and Xiahou.

I just feel like we should be able to find a townie in this pile and lock things away. I have strong bets on several of them.

To be clear, even if at the moment you're not moving to re-assess a set of locks, why shouldn't the non-locks (of the present spread) receive planning?

I'll grant you that Slaan leaving the locks isn't a special circumstance as long as Choxorn is replacing him, but you've already proven that re-assessment and attrition is inevitable.

Here's what the schema I'm hinting at could look like (it involves multiple projected futures:


Lock Pile 1
A
B
C
D
Lynch Pile 1
E
F
G
H
I
J
Projected Lynches 1
.....


Lock Pile 2
B
D
H
J
Lynch Pile 2
A
C
E
F
G
I
Projected Lynches 2
.....

Lock Pile ...

[Askthepizzaguy]

Have you calculated the effect of night kills?

Not properly. I was thinking it's basically 5-4 since we can lynch inside the five not in the town circle easily, but that's a day late and a dollar short. It's still 4-4 come morning unless a doctor saves us. Eventually that leads to a 2-2.

Even numbered remaining people screws with the calculations.