Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

Explain the reasoning behind this idea.

KISS principle applies here. Unless we're planning on lynching Fredwood or dp101 at some point, or choxorn or me, we went from a locked position to a near lock.

Near lock means we still win most of the time. The mafia has to be exactly the wrong person and everyone needs to let them go for them to win.

I ended up with like 10 townies outside of choxorn, and choxorn makes 11. Why can I not afford to kick out one or two "locks" when their interactions with the dead scums look incriminating, why does it need excessive planning.

This is part of why I suspected Slaan in the first place. Since when do we absolutely have to plan out failure until final 3?

If we're dead we're not influencing those lynches anyway, only the survivors will.

Alright, assume no new planning - summarize what the game looks like from there on.

It seems to me that every time the game doesn't end with a lynch, we will have to rewrite the landscape. Each time.

Whether it's a game with 1 lock or 2 locks or more, we always have had to plan ahead eventually - because the game isn't over.

Once it's over, there's no more planning to be had.

?

At the time, before the recent deaths.

I can't be bothered to go back and actually count, but from where I sit, the don't lynch people still outnumber the do lynch pile.

Have you calculated the effect of night kills?

I reread dp again just in case I got snowed by his earlier work. If he's scum here then I cannot catch him. It's flawless. I could see a distancing motive from Zack and GH, but the same principle applies to choxorn. You have to just assume the outcome, it's not possible to reach it decisively. If I'm going to play that way I should skip 18 hours of analysis today and just flip coins.

Fredwood is similarly a picture of perfection, with less likelihood of distancing tactics from GH and Zack. The passive aggression directed at him seemed real.

Choxorn lock.

Me lock.

That's 4 locks we don't lynch today, and 6 remainders.

If I find one townie and it's correct, and the above are correct, the game is still locked.

I even called for the town doctor to hard claim, if we have one, that locks the game as well.

We lynch outside of the 5 locks and it should be a win.

Looks like we'll end up in a final 4 if it comes to that, and from your own perspective Monty, the game should be locked, because you're not in the above pile at present.

Outside is Csargo, Barto, you, Cuth, Slaan, and Xiahou.

I just feel like we should be able to find a townie in this pile and lock things away. I have strong bets on several of them.

To be clear, even if at the moment you're not moving to re-assess a set of locks, why shouldn't the non-locks (of the present spread) receive planning?

I'll grant you that Slaan leaving the locks isn't a special circumstance as long as Choxorn is replacing him, but you've already proven that re-assessment and attrition is inevitable.

Here's what the schema I'm hinting at could look like (it involves multiple projected futures:


Lock Pile 1
A
B
C
D
Lynch Pile 1
E
F
G
H
I
J
Projected Lynches 1
.....


Lock Pile 2
B
D
H
J
Lynch Pile 2
A
C
E
F
G
I
Projected Lynches 2
.....

Lock Pile ...