Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

sigh...

Maybe you truly don't see the difference, maybe you do, at this point I don't know how else to say it to make it clear.

At the start of the day you weren't in the POE for today, you were in the lynch as last resort pile. Now you're in the needs to be dealt with sooner then later pile. I

You were saying, Yes, I believe we should follow this POE (except lol Bart is in my Final 3...for whatever reason), but Imma go ahead and plan out all the lynches until final 3.

It's the difference between playing for the day and playing 4 days ahead. Now what Monty is saying that since we're considering you that we're severely altering our path to victory that was established pretty much since the first phase, so that means we have to think it out. I don't think it really is a valid point, it just means we have a smaller don't lynch until later pile.

I should point out, I recognized some problems with planning if planning involves changing course on the basis of flips - because all flips are town until the game ends.

Standard 2 deaths per round. 4 lynches, 3 kills.

Predict only 1/4 locked survives to LYLO.







But there's nothing new here. Actually, this is more arbitrary than I imagined. I can't really switch around people in the Lock/Lynch piles, or do so contingent on future lynches, because there's no new flips to distinguish lynches (effectively all town until game ends). No one can be cleared or spewed anymore (without role claims) because there are no more Mafia partners to lynch. I can't predict what new information changes the variables, so it becomes random if you make plans that deviate from Pizza's OG stable.

OK I was somewhat mistaken. You really do have to take it day by day.

So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.

I said that if there is no claim it creates problems for Pizza, so claiming now, especially near EOD, would harm town. A claim would only strengthen the case against you, even if it isn't airtight.

But I believe that the absence of any claim up to now suggests that there is no doctor, and there is no vig: Pizza's scenario is all wrong.