Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I had a thought that Cuth or some other lurker could be scum - just weren't around to help their partners on the Choxorn wagon toward EOD - but it's not strong reasoning and you shouldn't rely on it.

What is your assessment on Csargo?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If it happened to be Cuth or Xiahou, there's no way for Askthepizzaguy to determine that from just reading the thread.

There's nothing in their posts suggesting it. Cuth because most of his behavior is null, save for a couple of posts I cited that looked good, and the way Logic talked about him.

Eventually such a read will have to be reexamined. I went with what I saw and what my gut told me about it.

Xiahou had good votes and not much else. So if we're just lynching folks who vote for the scums and for no other basis of suspecting them, it's like we're flipping coins.

It's a great way to sneak past me. I have to see motive and a plan and when I don't, when your behavior just looks like a townie, it's playing dice to vote there, and with 3 flipped wolves and this many posts, we should be able to tell at the very least that everyone but Xiahou is townie looking, if it was Xiahou. Even if you can't read the slot you can read the room.

But if it's him I can't catch him. It's a blind spot.

[Montmorency]

What is your assessment on Csargo?

I don't have a D1 analysis, but I think he's detached town who's poking at whatever he sees at the time he's available.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't have a D1 analysis, but I think he's detached town who's poking at whatever he sees at the time he's available.

So who are your suspects in total. Who would you lynch today, who would you never lynch today.

[Montmorency]

So who are your suspects in total. Who would you lynch today, who would you never lynch today.

0. If it's you, you can have it. I take you for granted as town.

1. DP and Choxorn lock town. I'd prefer not to look at DP in another light unless something in a reread specifically catches my eye.

2. I feel good about Csargo.

3. Cuth and Fred have performed strongly, with a fair amount of spew. Look at them last.

4. Xiahou is a wildcard that can't be overlooked.

5. Slaan may have to be lynched now, but despite my hesitance I think there's more total scumminess going for him than for Barto - then again there is also more total towniness.

At this point clear out Barto today, and if that fails try to recheck all the reads and interactions by flipped scum to see if there are special patterns in the ways they behave that are relevant to a Xiahou and Slaan TD, and other relationships.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Give me more about Csargo if you can, please.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I also have to actually iso him. Been putting it off because the game state .

[Askthepizzaguy]

I will say this

@Xiahou

@Cuthillius

And anyone who hasn't been really following the game state (not saying the above have not been, just, I can't tell how much you've been keeping up or read from your posts)

Since your posts are not clearing enough to keep you out of suspicion to many, and your activity is infrequent, if you have a power to claim, you should do it on the next day phase.

Otherwise the assumption is you're scum or vanilla townie and it can result in a hammer.

[Montmorency]

Give me more about Csargo if you can, please.

Leaving aside D1, D2 saw the collapse of GH and D3 started with Zack dead. If these are Csargo's partners, he is remarkably consistent in affecting variously lolcatting and semi-serious observation, neither collapsing into chaos (if giving up on the game) nor making any real attempt to direct the agenda or to clear himself. Both his level and manner of participation are stable and proportionate to game state/activity since at least later in D1.

[El Barto]

Vote: Csargo
Someone tell me why I'm wrong.

I might have missed something, but why are you voting for him?

In lack of better leads, having expected the day to end way later and not while I'm off to IRL I'll just have to stick by this. vote: Xiahou.

If you're voting for me then specify whether there's any post(s) that made you feel I was a mafioso or whether it's just that I'm not clean enough and you need to whittle down the number of suspects. Bye.

So just to nail this: If the doc is around and has protected pizza and gets a confirmation that his protection worked then I agree. I'd laugh loud if that happened (as that would mean there is actually a mafia vig out there and shot pizza N1) but in that case I'm the obvious lynch and will laugh at it from the graveyard. But the existing of a doc that protected pizza N1 doesnt prove anything alone in my eyes.... clearing would be (at least in regard to pizzas theory) if the doc had protected someone else that night... but I'm not sure if I want the doc to out himself for that tbh, even with that clear I'd probably don't get back to the secure town pile after all that happened today so him staying quiet would probably be +EV even if I'm mislynched.

Didn't choxorn claim something?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Leaving aside D1, D2 saw the collapse of GH and D3 started with Zack dead. If these are Csargo's partners, he is remarkably consistent in affecting variously lolcatting and semi-serious observation, neither collapsing into chaos (if giving up on the game) nor making any real attempt to direct the agenda or to clear himself. Both his level and manner of participation are stable and proportionate to game state/activity since at least later in D1.

My observations about Csargo is that he doesn't really break a poker face no matter what the game state is.

If his partners are all under pressure, or himself, he may not react at all.

I think if there was a tell, it would be something along the lines of breaking character as opposed to showing visible signs of stress.

Something like changing tactics or levels of seriousness about the game. The evenness in terms of stress or reaction to pressure on him or the outed wolves I'd expect, the evenness in how he's playing the game in the phases we've seen so far is really good wolfing from him if that's what it is. I think that might be the only thing he wouldn't normally control, is the overall approach to the game. At some point, the changing game state should have caused a crack and gotten him to attempt to win town points and get out of the POE.

Mainly, in how he'd be interacting with the town core.

If I were to come up with a theory on how to read Csargo as scum, which... as he's seeing me type this it can probably become invalid the next time he rands scum. The tells only work if you're not aware they are a tell.

What I've seen lines up with your own characterization.

[Cuthillius]

I will say this

@Xiahou

@Cuthillius

And anyone who hasn't been really following the game state (not saying the above have not been, just, I can't tell how much you've been keeping up or read from your posts)

Since your posts are not clearing enough to keep you out of suspicion to many, and your activity is infrequent, if you have a power to claim, you should do it on the next day phase.

Otherwise the assumption is you're scum or vanilla townie and it can result in a hammer.

hi

noted

i have been following along for the most part, i just

lost any actual drive/interest in the game while it was in the PizzaFollowsPoEAndLaughsAtScumbags phase

and was ~dead yesterday

but am feeling a bit better today and there's actually a point in engaging with the thread now so I should be around more

all the same

[Slaan]

Alright, basically through now (page54 but that oughta do... not like ppl sussing me after this is gonna help me find the last wolf ^^)

No Chox is in the never lynch pile now. To my mind nothing has changed because yes, essentially you guys swapped. Which is why I don't agree with Monty, but he's also not saying the same thing you were doing.

However according to your logic with Bart, Chox should have always been in the never lynch pile. Basically anybody with somewhat valid spew should be, which means Monty shouldn't have been in your lynch as last resort. Your logic was inconsistent within your own post.

After I read the first 30 pages In my mind when they started going after Barto that had a real chance of working out... later the wagon on Chox didnt as much. So seeing as they couldnt save Logic by forcing a town mislynch in Barto they switched to Chox to bus a partner here into a 2 mafia wagon D1 scenario... I had this on my mind partly because of what happened in our Wild West Game were GH pushed mudkip when Bumblebee was getting lynched. It triggered a blindspot for me in that game because I hardly ever see two wolf wagons on D1 on my homesite but in this MU-ish meta that seemes to be a valid strategy.

I have to admit though that my reasoning isnt perfect on Barto. In the end it doesnt matter all that much who dies if Barto is indeed mafia and they bussed him then. If Barto ended up being the flip then great, they'd have gotten tons of cred (similiar as everyone that pushed the logic wagon got).. if not at least they distanced themselves etc. So yes, Barto is far from lock town.

So let me give you my current thoughts on everyone:

Csargo: Only small things clearing him. Like Zack multiple times saying there was lots of bussing going on on the Logic wagon which I usually here from wolves when there was, in fact, no bussing. Other than that I don't think there is much....
Dp101: Massive tinfoil territory with a possible slip but overall he just looks too good. The spew, the tone, the 'bussing'. Only thing that botheres me is how inactive he was now. I think mafia would like to play passively right about now and let town tinfoil on each other... but I doubt I could ever kill him over the others.
Pizza: Heh, also massive tinfoil but if he is mafia this is a 1% play and he'd never get townread for wolfhunting again as long as he is alive so that's probably a bad play to make even as scum just for being townread this game ^^. I kinda have a pet theory that he is some 3p that knows all the roles and has to be last man standing with a bulletproof vest... hello speculation. He can have this game in this case though as well, don't see how we'd realistically ever catch that.
Fredwood: I don't like how he is going after me but he looks good the previous days and even the way he is going after me I'd consider more towny. At this point in game I don't think mafia is looking to be very active and push mislynches... especially Fredwood who I'd overall not charcterize as aggressive would sit back more, not be on the forefront of a Slaan mislynch. I think he is just entered tunnel territory on me which is fine (well ish)
El Barto: Actually difficult. I liked my previous theory but that one was obviously wrong with Chox claim and all. Maybe I got it backwards and they sussed/did distancing thingy with Barto and didnt think it would go anywhere (or that Barto could clear himself, Zack did jump off him very lightly)? Barto was in the scumpile of both GH and Zack, so maybe he was the designated low mafia fruit they wanted to go after for cred. Barto himself did vote pretty well overall but that could very well be part of this strat, not to mention that he wasnt really constructive when Zack/GH were still around but got rather active once it was clear he would have to solo? I have to admit I have a blindspot when it comes to coordinates mafia strategies as I'm not yet used to games with mafia chat and mafia actually talking, we don't have this on my homesite. Only in the Champ game did I see the mafia doing something to a coordinated strategy, in Wild West there was none and in the orchestrated chaos game we also didnt coordinate much (nothing I'd really call a strategy anyway, talked night kills and power usage)... so maybe I'm overthinking it but in the end I think he has to die before the game ends.
Cutch: Not much to read up on, the townpoints some bring up are there but there is soo little.. that's NAI but having him in F3 would be terrible without having anything to really read up on. Not that anything he can say now is going to change that I think so imo he has to go at some point. How is the modkill policy here? He has only 1 post so far this phase....
Monty: I'd let him live I think. I didnt find anything damning with now knowing the flips. On top of that his WIM has been insane, I'm not a big fan of the way he does ISO (more recounting what happened and less analysis) but doing all this work and on top of that apparently reading older games etc..? Yes townreading one for him alone isnt great but he is mafia he is pretty insane. And similar to Fredwood: Why would he interfere so constructive in pizzas case against me? I mean it can be mafia to bolster their own cred for being right in the end on me but then why vote me.... Just sit back, enjoy the show or write smth non committal or w/e.. but he seemed to be in my head as he mostly wrote exactly what I was thinking/my position. Now tinfoil me says thats because he knows I'm town and can thus better judge the situation and make those posts... na, I'd let him beat me this game.
Chox: Actually lock clear. Well 99%, Cuth could come around and counterclaim I don't think he'd seen it yet but the way he claimed was just towny.
Xiahou: I'd lynch him without a second thought. Yes his voting profile looks good but that's about it... and that's actually also what concerns me. He seems to be hardly around, I doubt he reads the entire thread (or I'd imagine he'd post more comments). Now how can he have such a great voting record? I have players on my homeforum that follow the strat to just bus ppl and be quiet otherwise and then let their votingrecord speak and I feel like this could very well be happening here...

So this leaves me with the following list of ppl from most want dead to least want dead:
Xiahou -> Cuth -> Barto -> Csargo -> Monty -> Fred -> dp101 -> pizza -> Chox -> Slaan

[Slaan]

Vote: Xiahou

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (2): Montmorency, Pizza,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,

Xiahou (1): Slaan,

Not voting (6): Choxorn, Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Xiahou can be a suspect tomorrow at the earliest.

He's never been under pressure and needs to be given a chance to claim before he's speed lynched.

Other than that, it's an okay theory.

[Slaan]

Xiahou can be a suspect tomorrow at the earliest.

He's never been under pressure and needs to be given a chance to claim before he's speed lynched.

Other than that, it's an okay theory.

Actually a good point.... I wonder if we should ask Cuth to claim if he's around... but I guess you are all set on Barto dying today so w/e.

Vote: Barto

[Slaan]

Cuth you said you are more or less caught up.. what is your take on the situation?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Barto gets to 4, please don't add additional votes to him, just say you want to vote him if so.

Use the time. If he's town, what in his posts say that he is?

[Choxorn]

Vote: El Barto

I have no better ideas at this point.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lol POE.

[Slaan]

If Barto gets to 4, please don't add additional votes to him, just say you want to vote him if so.

Use the time. If he's town, what in his posts say that he is?

Isnt it over in 30min? If he is mafia we can discuss all we want after the game is over, if he isnt we can discuss during the night ^^

[Askthepizzaguy]

Isnt it over in 30min? If he is mafia we can discuss all we want after the game is over, if he isnt we can discuss during the night ^^

I'm not done isoing Csargo yet. And burying someone is not necessary if there is a better alternative.

I would like to make a decision on Csargo as to whether he should still be town read or not.

[Slaan]

Alright, have fun

[Dp101]

I’ve been in a similar position to cuth recently, haven’t had much WIM in general with the game state being what it is. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game use PoEs as aggressively as this one before, it’s kind of weird. I think overall though Slaan doesn’t need to be a suspect right now, he’s reacted authentically to the pressure. His currently proposed PoE is fine by me.

[Montmorency]

If Barto gets to 4, please don't add additional votes to him, just say you want to vote him if so.

Use the time. If he's town, what in his posts say that he is?

Check out this angle (general, not Barto). I'm planning to explore D1 overnight with this lens, and see if it leads to patterns that are actionable wrt living players.

So Zack reads Manasi horribly, wait till scums flip and do partner analysis; GH can read Manasi reasonably well, better than she might expect (votes Manasi). So that's a divergence.

Going by a quick advanced search of the thread I can't find a direct Manasi read in a comprehensive post by Zack, but at the end of D1 GH was scumreading Manasi, at points even his top scum. Still a divergence.

Here's what I have by the two on Barto so far (major items, not complete):

Well, now that I'm finally live, some combination of Fred, Barto, and Reinoe. I'd also like to stay live for a little while.

GH looking at people including Barto - BUT, this was before Zack made the case against him.

Okay so I got distracted doing other stuff and was only able to get to Fred and Barto.

Barto I still have no idea on, and probably won't until we get a flip. Wouldn't say no to lynching him but at the same time I fully recognize this is a lazy read. Don't care though.

Fred I feel somewhat better about, I think it was dp(?) who said that while he was around he made some pretty good points, and here I agree pretty much. Seems natural and focused, not really forcing anything. Fred can be town today.

GH looks at Barto, but takes away a nullish, self-admittedly lazy read. Still before Zack's case.

Also, anyone who is riding the train of "Logic is scum here, because he is noticeably and explicitly different from XCOM mafia, where he was town."

Read Barto in that game, read Logic in that game. Read them both in this game.

There's a stark difference in one of them, and it's not Logic.

Difference in games between XCOM and this one greater for Barto than for Logic.

People refuse to read him, because he's barto. But it's not that hard.

In the CFC/MTGS game on MU, I defended him for days before finally giving up. He was town.

I don't remember the game it was, but he was worried with fixing votecounts or something while having zero interest in the actual thread. I called him out on it as being wolfy, and got a mixture of scorn and ambivalence.

In Sooh's last game, I called him out as a probable wolf again. He was scum. I barely escaped getting mislynche d1, and got immediately killed by the town vigilante.

In Representative Democracy, as my teammate, I was literally begging him in our scum chat to please, post and do something. He did nothing but occasionally pop in to complain about the number of posts and do not really anything, pretty much what he's done here.

Look at XCOM. How much time does he spend complaining about having to read the thread? Does he make thoughtless OMGUS votes then peace out?

Nope.

Zack's case on Barto that he is trolling and lacks interest in the thread.

I mean, the interpretation/paraphrase that makes most sense to me is the following:

There are two wagons right now, Logic and Barto. I'm scumreading Barto more than Logic but am fine with either lynch. Unfortunately I'm still going to vote Logic despite my greater scumread of Logic.

It just... doesn't make sense from town? It's almost like he's trying to appease Pizza.

GH shading Fred, who suspects both Barto and Logic but thinks Logic should be the 'default' lynch for the day. (This could mean any number of things, but it should be included).

***

So I think Zack wants Barto dead, and GH doesn't really care, except maybe indirectly. It's still a divergence, but not as large as the one on Manasi. I have no idea what it means. What it means depends on Barto's flip now, and the nature of any other divergence I can pick up in D1.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (4): Montmorency, Pizza, Slaan, Choxorn,

Csargo (1): Xiahou,



Not voting (5): Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Csargo

[Montmorency]

Vote: Csargo

I disagree.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

El Barto (3): Montmorency, Slaan, Choxorn,

Csargo (2): Xiahou, Pizza,



Not voting (5): Fredwood, El Barto, Cuthillius, Dp101, Csargo

With 10 players there are 6 to hammer.


EOD4: