Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

So a question to Slaan, Pizza or whomever. Taking out voting record and spew which concerns you more in the current game state (one where we caught 3 scum in the first 2 days):

7 posts total

or

3 posts since Day 1?

I get where you're coming from, I really do, but several people have done very little since the early game scums got caught.

It cannot be alignment indicative, in fact if it were an indicator, it would indicate the other way. Town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Doesn't mean he is town, it just means that's not a tell, but an exception if he were scum.

I can believe in exceptions. I just don't base a lynching case off of one.

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is really why I can't push Xiahou. I have to see it, and I cannot ever see it based on the posts so far.

Until the POE is resolved I wouldn't push Xia.

Make him your final lynch. Mislynch maybe.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I posted the reality of the situation, it still doesn't make sense to me tbh. Why would I do this as scum?

Do what?

I don't know what you're referring to, if it's in the post or your previous sentence. Clarify?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sorting by post count, Xiahou was in the massive Capo 2 game.

He had posts. 1 post and vote per day. Looking for his alignment.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Sorting by post count, Xiahou was in the massive Capo 2 game.

He had 4 posts. 1 post and vote per day. Looking for his alignment.

Num lock.

[Fredwood]

I get where you're coming from, I really do, but several people have done very little since the early game scums got caught.

It cannot be alignment indicative, in fact if it were an indicator, it would indicate the other way. Town.

No my general point is that if we're going down the Xia rabbit hole then it's only fair if we include Cuth for post count purposes. had 28 day one, has had 3 since. I know my WIM would be destroyed if all my teammates were killed. He also presented the idea that GH and Zack probably weren't teammates, or at least he didn't think Zack was scum, but said it after the fact. His last post day one was a passive aggressive jab at the thread for "sheeping" pizza, which is meh.

I'm not really arguing for the Cuth lynch, but I'm saying whenever we consider Xiah, we have to consider Cuth as well to stay consistent. If that day is today I'm more inclined to think a guy who has consistently low posted is a lot less suspicious then someone who has basically stopped posting after having a decent post count to start (I say this cus we had similar day 1 post counts lol). I know there's a a spew case in his favor, but scum was scrambling day 1, I don't know how likely logic is to save a teammate with spew in that case, or if it means Cuth is town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

“As to our post-mortem results, we’ve come up with this information. Fahad I, Killfr3nzy, Sapi, and Xiahou were all clearly townies with no information linking them to the mobs or to criminal activity in general.”

Xiahou confirmed townie in Capo 2.

I'm gonna keep looking until I find a scum game of his.

If this is his town pattern, and it looks like it is, he's nailed it completely if he's scum.

I feel like if he's scum he should be posting more than this as a gut feeling. I'm prepared to be wrong though, still digging.

[Askthepizzaguy]

No my general point is that if we're going down the Xia rabbit hole then it's only fair if we include Cuth for post count purposes. had 28 day one, has had 3 since. I know my WIM would be destroyed if all my teammates were killed. He also presented the idea that GH and Zack probably weren't teammates, or at least he didn't think Zack was scum, but said it after the fact. His last post day one was a passive aggressive jab at the thread for "sheeping" pizza, which is meh.

I'm not really arguing for the Cuth lynch, but I'm saying whenever we consider Xiah, we have to consider Cuth as well to stay consistent. If that day is today I'm more inclined to think a guy who has consistently low posted is a lot less suspicious then someone who has basically stopped posting after having a decent post count to start (I say this cus we had similar day 1 post counts lol). I know there's a a spew case in his favor, but scum was scrambling day 1, I don't know how likely logic is to save a teammate with spew in that case, or if it means Cuth is town.

If he's scum, this is why.

[Csargo]

Do what?

I don't know what you're referring to, if it's in the post or your previous sentence. Clarify?

I was referring to the post you quoted.

[Askthepizzaguy]

In any case, this is why I'm so protective of natural low-posters.

All I do all day is run my big fat mouth and push and prod and poke and influence.

The low posters only have so much impact on the game, and the BEST way they can impact the game is just by voting correctly.

It also is rare to see the lowest posting scum voting for the biggest influencers.

I do NOT believe players have more or less value than one another just because they post more. If you're voting, you're playing.

I use my big mouth to speak out in defense of low posters who I don't think are null, or who are bussing wolves.

If they're alive come endgame then maybe. They don't have any town points except the bussing.

But that's the point, that's not ever going to be enough and Xiahou has to know that.

Instead, he's ice cold. Not flinching. Same strategy.

And it's his townie meta. I wouldn't be me if I didn't speak out against his lynch based on this record.

If it's wrong, this is my crippling achilles' heel. I grew up on org mafia and although I've been annoyed at times by the low posting, and especially if they don't vote and let me down that way, I've been forced to read them over the years. I feel like it's worth trying to explain how they're town.

Even if it's wrong, that idea needs to have its day, and Xiahou ain't ever going to be the one who argues it.

Insight into Pizza's brain. Monty is keeping close notes about my meta, well here is a big clue.

[Fredwood]

If he's scum, this is why.

Just to make sure, I'm talking about Cuth in the bolded, not Xia.

I'm generally in the place that I'm not really worried about losing to either of them if they're scum. If forced, based solely on the drop off of posts to think Cuth is inherently more suspicious then Xiah.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.

Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.

Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).

That's the biggest issue.

red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.

Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.

It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.

Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.

I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.

Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just to make sure, I'm talking about Cuth in the bolded, not Xia

Me too

[Fredwood]

So that has helped with my remainder I guess.

So that just leaves Slaan and Cuth I guess, I legit don't know what to do with Csargo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Right but Monty and myself were both selling that. In fact I was doubting my suss of GH. I think it goes back to the first point you made in the iso. The you're not doing much in your posts suss is not something you throw at a teammate who has some deep wolf cred.

Yes, the tell isn't generic here though.

The final scum had to be doing this in my opinion. It's the only plan that wins.

Just because townies were doing it too, doesn't mean that logic isn't valid.

It isn't "anyone who is doing this is scum"

It's "someone who is doing this is scum".

Only a few folks were. And you and Monty both look a lot townier to me from the rest of your work.

See the process?

[Askthepizzaguy]

So that has helped with my remainder I guess.

So that just leaves Slaan and Cuth I guess, I legit don't know what to do with Csargo.

Lynch him before Cuth.

Then Cuth maybe.

[El Barto]

After you die you may post one BAH post which does not include any clues.

one little brat from Snoreway

Damned Snorwegians.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't think I'll be okay with pushing Xiahou personally at any point.

My POE is putting him into the town side.

Still looking for a scum game of his.

If he's got one that matches this game, all bets are off.

[Askthepizzaguy]

After a kill, we're at final 8, which gives us 3 lynches.

Csargo/Cuth/Slaan/Monty

In approximately that order. Shame I have 4.

If one dies and is town, lynch the rest.

[Fredwood]

Yes, the tell isn't generic here though.

The final scum had to be doing this in my opinion. It's the only plan that wins.

Just because townies were doing it too, doesn't mean that logic isn't valid.

It isn't "anyone who is doing this is scum"

It's "someone who is doing this is scum".

Only a few folks were. And you and Monty both look a lot townier to me from the rest of your work.

See the process?

Yeah, I guess. I realize every-time I say something to argue with you that it should Csargo saying it so I'll just let you work lol.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza
choxo
dp101
Fredwood
Xiahou
-------------------
Monty
Slaan
Cuth
Csargo

Possibly final answer.

3 shots into that bottom 4 means we should still win, but lol us if we can't.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I feel like the bottom 4 all did their best to argue against the Logic lynch (and/or) tried to get us off of suspecting both Zack and GH or one of each.

As such those are generically the correct suspects.

Lynch them in order of least to most townie in your own mind.

[Askthepizzaguy]

My suggestion to the bottom 4 is to look into why the others in that pile are not the scums we're looking for, and also, why they are.

[Csargo]

Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.

Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.

Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).

That's the biggest issue.

red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.

Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.

It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.

Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.

I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.

Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.

Have you noticed a pattern to most of my arguments this game Pizza?

Do you disagree with the sentiment behind the argument? I wasn't trying to dissuade anyone, I was trying to understand the strategy behind it. I still don't get it, such a bizarre thing. It was meant as an objective look at their actions, since I wasn't a fan of either at that point, it probably failed to be that.

I don't blame you for thinking I'm scum, I haven't done a great job this game of making sound arguments. If I was scum I never would have tried to give a reason for voting Zack D1, I would have just moved on. I wouldn't have voted Logic over Choxorn in that situation D1.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Have you noticed a pattern to most of my arguments this game Pizza?

Do you disagree with the sentiment behind the argument? I wasn't trying to dissuade anyone, I was trying to understand the strategy behind it. I still don't get it, such a bizarre thing. It was meant as an objective look at their actions, since I wasn't a fan of either at that point, it probably failed to be that.

I don't blame you for thinking I'm scum, I haven't done a great job this game of making sound arguments. If I was scum I never would have tried to give a reason for voting Zack D1, I would have just moved on. I wouldn't have voted Logic over Choxorn in that situation D1.

That is the towniest thing in your favor and I did see it.

So in Cuth/Monty/Slaan, are those the correct suspects?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't notice a pattern as I wasn't looking for such, what was the pattern?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Found another Xiahou game.

Mafia VII Shadows of the Mafia, Xia had 29 posts.

He was town. You could talk after death in that game. The pattern is between 1 and 3 posts per day on average, with frequent gaps where he doesn't post at all that day.

Need to check the old database and see if he was ever even scum once.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Stickied at the top of the forum:

link

Gameroom Statistics (link) - Contains statistics on games and mafia players. Awesome job, Romanic! (note: not updated since 2011)

Xiahou
Mafia: 3 games (1 win, 2 losses, 0 draw, 0 WOG, 0 replaced) - Survived 1 time

As of 2011 (database is OOOOOLD and hasn't been updated)

I can keep looking. What else am I gonna do tonight.

[Fredwood]

Stickied at the top of the forum:

link



Xiahou
Mafia: 3 games (1 win, 2 losses, 0 draw, 0 WOG, 0 replaced) - Survived 1 time

As of 2011 (database is OOOOOLD and hasn't been updated)

I can keep looking. What else am I gonna do tonight.

Lol at your win loss record as scum.