Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

So then why would Cuth keep you alive?

As you said, only you could convince yourself that DP is scum, or convince DP that you are scum. Otherwise, as I said, Cuth's only chance is a tie flip. What would you do in that scenario (setting aside your rhetorical skills)? Do you feel an F3 is the only honorable way to die so you set that up for yourself as scum every time?

[Askthepizzaguy]

As you said, only you could convince yourself that DP is scum, or convince DP that you are scum. Otherwise, as I said, Cuth's only chance is a tie flip. What would you do in that scenario (setting aside your rhetorical skills)? Do you feel an F3 is the only honorable way to die so you set that up for yourself as scum every time?

Well, I just don't agree that Cuth's only chance is a tie flip.

If you're alive in final 4, then the game state looks wrong to me. That's not a winning plan and I'm a stickler for plans that win.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch Xiahou, shoot me, that's a valid plan.

[Montmorency]

Lynch Xiahou, shoot me, that's a valid plan.

Is it equally valid for all players, or more so for you and DP?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is it equally valid for all players, or more so for you and DP?

Such a plan makes sense from dp's perspective, if he's somehow a wolf here.

Which I just don't see. All the evidence points the other way.

[Montmorency]

Hit send too soon. ^From Cuth's perspective.

But to me, I don't think it wins. He's gotta bet the farm that you guys lynch dp, because dp lacks the votes to lynch you.

For whatever it's worth:

@Cuthilius

Would you be satisfied betting on a coin flip if the alternative was facing DP & Pizza?

I think this breaks along differences in basic assumptions.

[Cuthillius]

For whatever it's worth:

@Cuthilius

Would you be satisfied betting on a coin flip if the alternative was facing DP & Pizza?

I think this breaks along differences in basic assumptions.

except it's not really betting on a coin flip, if i were a wolf that'd depend on me being able to persuade pizza/at that point i'd probably gun harder for one of you i'd imagine to get that or something

i think shooting to give f4 only really makes sense if the wolf is not me

if it's a lover, they have to

if it's dp or pizza, they feel like they can easily win no matter where the votes go just by the way sentiments go

so i'd probably do dp and pizza? phrasing

but

i don't know on what level i'd even be operating if i was a wolf surviving until this point in the game

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch Xiahou, shoot me, that's a valid plan.

Hit send too soon. ^From Cuth's perspective.

But to me, I don't think it wins. He's gotta bet the farm that you guys lynch dp, because dp lacks the votes to lynch you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The way I see things Monte, is that you and I and dp are townies.

I can see universes where any of the others are guilty.

But, if any of csargo or dp are guilty, they will not be lynched in final 3/4.

And Xiahou always gets lynched, and either you or me dies tonight, Monte. So, I want to be thoroughly exhaustive.

You're absolutely sure, betting the game, that it's not csargo?

[Askthepizzaguy]

This is the last and only round where csargo is lynchable.

[Montmorency]

The way I see things Monte, is that you and I and dp are townies.

I can see universes where any of the others are guilty.

But, if any of csargo or dp are guilty, they will not be lynched in final 3/4.

And Xiahou always gets lynched, and either you or me dies tonight, Monte. So, I want to be thoroughly exhaustive.

You're absolutely sure, betting the game, that it's not csargo?

Are you calling me "Monte" to impress your seriousness upon me?

Let me ruminate for a few minutes.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Are you calling me "Monte" to impress your seriousness upon me?

Let me ruminate for a few minutes.

I am saying this is the call we can't take back.

We've had all game to try various scenarios and then the next day go the opposite way.

If it's dp or csargo, this is the last round either of us could reasonably determine that and make it happen.

I don't think it's dp, but I don't think it's xiahou either.

I know we're lynching xiahou. The question is, does it have to be today?

[Montmorency]

I am saying this is the call we can't take back.

We've had all game to try various scenarios and then the next day go the opposite way.

If it's dp or csargo, this is the last round either of us could reasonably determine that and make it happen.

I don't think it's dp, but I don't think it's xiahou either.

I know we're lynching xiahou. The question is, does it have to be today?

Is this saying, if you had to lynch Xiahou it would be better to lynch him after Cuth?

[Montmorency]

Csargo started the day right away, alongside GH, Zack, Pizza, Winston, and me. He had a number of D1 interactions with Zack and others that could be seen as distancing, or slips. However, his vote on Logic shortly before EOD could be seen as decisive. Or it could be seen as bussing. That means Zack was telling the truth when he said Logic was bussed - in a way. That could be reverse-psychology ("Zack lied!") to misdirect away from Csargo.

Cuth came in shortly after Logic came under threat, poking at DP. They had a conversation, then Zack started hounding Cuth over alleged DP shade. Soon after, Logic arrived to sheep Zack on this accusation. But then he voted Kage. Then Zack seems nullish on Cuth, calls in GH, and GH makes a few reads and votes Cuth. GH makes his infamous Aladdin exhortation that Kage vote Cuth. Kage follows. Pizza and others defend Cuth, time passes, and we hear no more about him from the scum. They move on to Barto. Then Cuth returns to challenge all this stuff, and to townread Zack. So this is all also interpretable as distancing. (In the middle of Cuth's return, Xiahou arrives to vote Zack incidentally). When Cuth still has two votes on him (GH and Kage), Kage asks Csargo what he thinks of Cuth. Csargo sees it as just typical Cuth, not worth pursuing. As a result, Kage switches onto Logic and soon after, GH quasi-rands into voting Manasi. Cuth is not mentioned again for the rest of the day (other than to be moderately scum-read ("but improving") by GH. He only posts again near EOD to shade Monty-Zack and a "discredit-y" post by Logic. He never votes, and ends as the only non-voter of the day.

Csargo's level of engagement and nature of content was consistent after D1. He did post less, but it was proportional; almost everyone was posting less, especially after 3 scum had flipped.

Cuth dropped away almost entirely, whether it was a strategy, or anti-strategy, or just his feeling on the game and RL during that time.

In the end, I have Csargo's QT presence, but I don't have the same for Cuth. On the face of things, both Csargo and Cuth acted consistent with being on a scum-team with Logic/Zack/GH. Maybe if I had no relationship with Csargo, or even if we were lovers w/o a QT, I would suggest Csargo should be lynched today, and Cuth/Xiahou resolved only after. But seeing Csargo in private puts an amount of his D1 activity in a much better light, along with independently towny thoughts, so this is what I have to consider.

I have to vote Cuth over Csargo. If you think it works out better, I could be brought to vote Cuth over Xiahou today.

But I just don't see how I vote Csargo at this point.

You should have vigged Csargo when you had the shot, then dragged out Zack for all the spew.

[Askthepizzaguy]

time is ticking, so where I'm at is I'm eating dinner, and then putting to bed any thoughts on csargo or dp before the flip.

I tend to agree the decision on tomorrow needs to be made today. People get tinfoily tomorrow.