Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

The main inference is that I am finally about to die.

As such, sleep is for the weak, parents with little children, and mafia scumbags.

[Askthepizzaguy]

With regard to the lovers, and having 1 mafioso inside of them.

Mafia - Mafia lovers ruled out mechanically by host confirmed info.

Mafia - survivor lovers ruled out, because there's essentially zero difference between that and the above. The survivor only cares about making it to endgame, and living, and that's the same as the mafia pretty much, and the survivor would be able to talk to someone who has a kill, making them only different from mafia on paper.

Mafia - 3p Lover lovers... like, a nominal "townie" who wins only if they survive the game, is not a townie. I remember the game I was in where I was a neutral lover, and my partner was a townie lover, but the win condition was us both being the last ones standing. Technically, that's not townie or neutral, but Lover alignment. That's just mafia with a special win condition, and I've ruled this out because it's still identical to the mafia - mafia lovers.

So, to put it another way, this is "lovers" being used in a way that is semi-foreign to my experience. I've seen the lovers mechanic appended to literal townies or scumbags in a mash setting, and this might be how lovers are used elsewhere as well. It simply means that they die, nothing more about alignment or win condition.

With those ruled out there are only two scenarios, which is that one of Csargo and Montmorency are literal townies, or both are and they both die.

This means that if they did truly suspect the other, they must lynch there, or they lose the game.

Exploring that idea next.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As to specifically which lover is a wolf, if it's one of the lovers, I always say it is Csargo.

Monty's game this game is the only game I've ever given him even temporarily lock townie status. And if it were him, lynching one lover kills the other lover anyway. The tie thing is something that he can do as town. (shrug) Just part of his odd process.

Monty was here, still processing the game and looking at scenarios. This game is a cakewalk win for him at this point, since csargo has him as town, and the only serious lynchees were xiahou and cuth today. And tomorrow, tinfoils on dp101 are even possible.

The subconscious swiss cheese memory version of Askthepizzaguy agrees. Of the two, Monty is at least a townie.

Csargo having a backchannel that we cannot see with Monty has persuaded Monty that he's town, but they do not have host confirmation that each other are town.

Csargo's actual posts, on the other hand, I've identified a plan. I laid out what it was, and the plan was as simple as distancing from wolves, spreading suspicions all over the place which I said didn't make any sense at the time, and most critically, suggesting after bussing logic and then the logic flip that GH and Zack were both town.

That plan is, as I've mentioned, the plan I was looking for from the fourth scum. Someone executed that plan.

As it stands, it was not dp101 who executed that plan. He had them as townie but immediately burned them both to death the moment they pushed him scummily.

I still agree with that analysis.

Cuth might not have been at the keyboard for most of the game, but Cuth also didn't execute that plan. Did he? I have to check but that's not what Cuth really did, if he was scum. If he's scum, then his buddies all distanced from him as an alternate suggested lynchee over Logic, which can make sense because Logic had a power. Maybe Cuth doesn't. And besides, the ole one scum is hanging, lynch a different one and control the narrative, is a plan I've executed successfully before and gotten scum wins. I've seen others execute such a plan as well.

But Cuth did not execute the plan of suggesting it wasn't Zack or GH. Instead, his plan was to earn no townie points at all this game? Other than fake ones from dead scums distancing from him, doing deliberate anti-spew so Cuth would look good upon their flip. I don't know, that still doesn't seem to be enough. If it were part of an actual "plan", I feel like... why do you need all three dead wolves to agree on it.

If Cuth is guilty, something didn't go according to plan. Hey, I can believe that.

But like with Xiahou:

When I search my swiss cheese memory banks, I do not recall three wolves pushing their partner on day one, all reacting around the same time to the same series of easily attackable posts.

That's the main thing about Cuth's posts, when I remember them, I remember that they were attackable.

And by attackable, I mean the kind of thing that you can instantly generate suspicion based off of, just by pressing down on.

And when I read those posts, I didn't see a dance, with two people tangoing. I didn't see something consensual. What I saw was every other wolf kind of roughly grabbing and pointing at his posts, and he's not even reacting to it. He's making no show of "being caught" or being agitated or pushing back, or selling this theater.

He looks like someone who is walking through a crowd of bullies, and they're all throwing spitballs at him, and he's just used to it and keeps on walking.

I don't want to speculate about psychology or make too deep an inference in an internet guessing game, but more of a meta read: Cuth probably feels like his own town game is attackable, normally. So it is utterly and completely normal for him when a bunch of people read his posts in the most negative light possible. It might get annoying, especially when it can lose an otherwise well fought game, but I don't think his instinct is to react with suspicion.

In any case, he didn't sell the dance.

If it was a plan, someone should have been said after "my what now" when GH voted him "for voting for dp101". Like, there were other dance steps involved in that tango, and he didn't continue any of those steps.

That's what I remember.

So that brings me back to Csargo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

But like with Xiahou:

When I search my swiss cheese memory banks, I do not recall three wolves pushing their partner on day one, all reacting around the same time to the same series of easily attackable posts.

Clarifying

I mean, out of the hundreds and hundreds of games I've played. The closest I get to that is fancy plays on like 2+2 forums, or perhaps a game I wasn't even in on Dragonmount where the wolf team all piled on one partner d1, taking turns calling a series of posts of that person scummy, when not a ton of other people even scum read those posts.

I remember common tactics. Stuff I've seen used to pull the wool over the eyes of towns, successfully, repeatedly.

Stuff like how Xiahou went after Zack on day one, and then GH, and then Csargo all game long, showing no concern about changing the game state, is too passive. It puts all the power into the hands of townies who tinfoil.

Bussing all your partners is not enough. People tinfoil and say "well he must have KNOWN they were guilty".

It's not a winning plan, and everyone knows it instinctively when they're mafia. It's when they're town that they forget such a plan doesn't ever happen. Not often and it doesn't win games when it happens. For this very reason.

Xiahou is dead. All his town credit died with him. And he was ALWAYS dying this game, for that very reason.

It's not enough. Simply pointing at all the scums is not enough. There has to be something more.

Xiahou had no visible process that looked like solving to most people. There was no SELL.

What sold me was that he had no sell. Because that no sell, is townie as

Even with my back against the wall, with 2 shots and 2 suspects, I don't put him as one, except reluctantly and by force.

I hated the cases against him, because they all were wrong in my experience.

Wolves don't do that.

Like with that example, I do not remember a wolf team all scum reading and then attacking, voting, and encouraging to vote a partner based on a series of attackable posts on day 1 which almost no one was scum reading but them.

I used to write down post patterns, verbal tics, and confirmed mafia strategies about 6 years ago or so, and put it in a big database. I'd refer to it in my notes, and I never published it. I called it "SkyNet".

Eventually I just committed SkyNet to memory, and the stuff that didn't end up being reliable tells, I ended up forgetting.

But what I remember, is basically every single gambit, plan, or strategy that wolf teams have used over something like 300+ games. I can tell you when I haven't seen something.

I can tell you when I have never seen Logic be passive aggressive as a townie, on instinct, for example. What people do to win games, that much I remember.

I don't remember that kind of bussing very often, except in rare examples on sites with very different processes and meta, making Cuth and GH/Zack/Logic's plan to distance from Cuth or get credit for lynching him over Logic, less likely. And when I've seen it, it has iffy results.

But, I can't rule it out completely.

What I can say is that Csargo's plan, I've seen that plan dozens and dozens of times probably, making it a far more likely plan that was put into action.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Either the lover team dies tonight, or they do not. They can't be the target if Csargo is mafia.

If the mafia is in the lover team, they can shoot me tonight, they could shoot dp, they could even be extra creative and shoot Cuth, just to really mess with minds. But the odds say shoot me or dp.

That's a winning plan. As such, I predict a winning plan will continue to play out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

When Monty was up there in people's towns, especially mine, and it looked unlikely that he might die, he should have become a valid nightkill target.

Csargo, less so. He never really struck anyone as lock townie.

And mafia don't want to do enough to get them lock townie status on day one, even by bussing partners hard, like I've been saying. Then their lack of death afterward has to be explained.

But the dead scums didn't really push hard onto either Monty or Csargo, if I remember correctly.

Doing so would cause a townie and a fellow scumbag to flip.

So they were never shot at, and they were never really pressed by the wolves, in a dangerous way. And they're both still alive, with the kills and the lynches all landing outside of both of them by pure chance?

There is a dark force acting against the will of the town all game.

That dark force is made up of: The gambits/strategies/tactics and spew, deliberate or not, of the dead wolves, and the people they suggested needed to die. Plus, the night kills. Plus, who people suggest need to be lynched.

That dark force surrounds the lover team. It has been protecting them all game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

All of those factors, including who Montmorency suggested to lynch, or to suggest the tie on day one, and later, when he claimed and it saved Csargo from being under suspicion.

Monty is either wittingly or unwittingly a part of that dark force. Even though he rings true as a townie to me, his actions help direct the lynch away from Csargo. Even with the best of intentions.

There was no dark force protecting Xiahou, none that protected Cuth. Both were POE and all the kills and lynches that happened, and the arguments that happened ever since Zack died, have all been subtly pushing it so that eventually, both Xiahou and Cuth would end up dead.

That is the darkness that is pushing against the light of the town.

And you extinguished Xiahou's candle, despite all my efforts. I had two candles. Now I have one. Tomorrow, I will have none.

But I promise you that the dark side surrounds Csargo and Monty. And Monty is a townie.

Again, Monty.

You have the power to save the town you love. You must choose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I know the dark side, Monty.

In order to become a complete and wise (??? debatable after this performance) leader of the town. In order to win games as scum, I have learned as much as I can about winning strategies.

Slaan was right, my town game a little iffy. But my scum game is on point.

I know how I'd win this game if I were a wolf. I know the winning plan. Even if I am only a slightly better than rand guesser at who is executing the winning plan, I know what the plan is.

I have in my hands the Death Star plans. Let me show you them.