Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Montmorency]

No clue. I'm at the point where I'm not going to share my thoughts about who the scum should kill because I'm worried that they can lock the game if they do it right, and I'm not certain that I wouldn't end up figuring out how they could do it and posting it.

Definitely don't do that. I just wanted to know the word I'm thinking of!

[Askthepizzaguy]

I fell asleep. Not for very long, obviously.

This game is like a demon consuming my life until we win or lose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So, this is what I see, with a clearer head and laying in bed staring at the darkness just a minute ago.

A lot of people solve games or find scums / townies subconsciously, on some instinct level, based on their memory and the stuff that's going on in their mental background.

You know when you walk away from a game, think on it, and your reads change, or you feel like someone you liked you read wrong? Or, when you remember the game, some people didn't make an impression on you?

That's what I'm currently feeling. This is the stuff that's on my mind, without even looking at the game and doing re-reads and shit.

This is what I know about my re-reads: Whoever the scumbag is, I already caught them. I've laid out why any particular person is guilty by now, even dp, so it's not as though the theory on who is scum hasn't rattled around in my brain at least one time.

I've also tinfoiled on some townies hard. As is to be expected after doing nothing but watching townies die for a week.

This is what I remember this game, without looking:

dp101: I remember the cfd thing, and I remember without looking about his disastrous several moments dealing with reinoe. I remember him defending all his town reads passionately.

Montmorency: I remember that his posts always made me feel like they were an attempt to solve. I remember that today, on the critical round, he was the one who sat here and did real, difficult work, actually looking through tinfoil scenarios and entertaining either Cuth or Csargo scum universes.

Csargo: I remember him responding to me at key points of the game; when we pushed GH/Zack, and when we tinfoiled onto him.

Cuth: I remember that all the scums had an opinion on him which was negative, and there was a vote and encouragement to scum read him and the vote was based on a faulty premise. Too faulty for me to buy that GH is that sloppy of a wolf. I remember him being negative about the game ever since day one.

I remember these things and those are the things that stuck with me the most.

So what can I infer from that?

[Askthepizzaguy]

The main inference is that I am finally about to die.

As such, sleep is for the weak, parents with little children, and mafia scumbags.

[Askthepizzaguy]

With regard to the lovers, and having 1 mafioso inside of them.

Mafia - Mafia lovers ruled out mechanically by host confirmed info.

Mafia - survivor lovers ruled out, because there's essentially zero difference between that and the above. The survivor only cares about making it to endgame, and living, and that's the same as the mafia pretty much, and the survivor would be able to talk to someone who has a kill, making them only different from mafia on paper.

Mafia - 3p Lover lovers... like, a nominal "townie" who wins only if they survive the game, is not a townie. I remember the game I was in where I was a neutral lover, and my partner was a townie lover, but the win condition was us both being the last ones standing. Technically, that's not townie or neutral, but Lover alignment. That's just mafia with a special win condition, and I've ruled this out because it's still identical to the mafia - mafia lovers.

So, to put it another way, this is "lovers" being used in a way that is semi-foreign to my experience. I've seen the lovers mechanic appended to literal townies or scumbags in a mash setting, and this might be how lovers are used elsewhere as well. It simply means that they die, nothing more about alignment or win condition.

With those ruled out there are only two scenarios, which is that one of Csargo and Montmorency are literal townies, or both are and they both die.

This means that if they did truly suspect the other, they must lynch there, or they lose the game.

Exploring that idea next.

[Askthepizzaguy]

As to specifically which lover is a wolf, if it's one of the lovers, I always say it is Csargo.

Monty's game this game is the only game I've ever given him even temporarily lock townie status. And if it were him, lynching one lover kills the other lover anyway. The tie thing is something that he can do as town. (shrug) Just part of his odd process.

Monty was here, still processing the game and looking at scenarios. This game is a cakewalk win for him at this point, since csargo has him as town, and the only serious lynchees were xiahou and cuth today. And tomorrow, tinfoils on dp101 are even possible.

The subconscious swiss cheese memory version of Askthepizzaguy agrees. Of the two, Monty is at least a townie.

Csargo having a backchannel that we cannot see with Monty has persuaded Monty that he's town, but they do not have host confirmation that each other are town.

Csargo's actual posts, on the other hand, I've identified a plan. I laid out what it was, and the plan was as simple as distancing from wolves, spreading suspicions all over the place which I said didn't make any sense at the time, and most critically, suggesting after bussing logic and then the logic flip that GH and Zack were both town.

That plan is, as I've mentioned, the plan I was looking for from the fourth scum. Someone executed that plan.

As it stands, it was not dp101 who executed that plan. He had them as townie but immediately burned them both to death the moment they pushed him scummily.

I still agree with that analysis.

Cuth might not have been at the keyboard for most of the game, but Cuth also didn't execute that plan. Did he? I have to check but that's not what Cuth really did, if he was scum. If he's scum, then his buddies all distanced from him as an alternate suggested lynchee over Logic, which can make sense because Logic had a power. Maybe Cuth doesn't. And besides, the ole one scum is hanging, lynch a different one and control the narrative, is a plan I've executed successfully before and gotten scum wins. I've seen others execute such a plan as well.

But Cuth did not execute the plan of suggesting it wasn't Zack or GH. Instead, his plan was to earn no townie points at all this game? Other than fake ones from dead scums distancing from him, doing deliberate anti-spew so Cuth would look good upon their flip. I don't know, that still doesn't seem to be enough. If it were part of an actual "plan", I feel like... why do you need all three dead wolves to agree on it.

If Cuth is guilty, something didn't go according to plan. Hey, I can believe that.

But like with Xiahou:

When I search my swiss cheese memory banks, I do not recall three wolves pushing their partner on day one, all reacting around the same time to the same series of easily attackable posts.

That's the main thing about Cuth's posts, when I remember them, I remember that they were attackable.

And by attackable, I mean the kind of thing that you can instantly generate suspicion based off of, just by pressing down on.

And when I read those posts, I didn't see a dance, with two people tangoing. I didn't see something consensual. What I saw was every other wolf kind of roughly grabbing and pointing at his posts, and he's not even reacting to it. He's making no show of "being caught" or being agitated or pushing back, or selling this theater.

He looks like someone who is walking through a crowd of bullies, and they're all throwing spitballs at him, and he's just used to it and keeps on walking.

I don't want to speculate about psychology or make too deep an inference in an internet guessing game, but more of a meta read: Cuth probably feels like his own town game is attackable, normally. So it is utterly and completely normal for him when a bunch of people read his posts in the most negative light possible. It might get annoying, especially when it can lose an otherwise well fought game, but I don't think his instinct is to react with suspicion.

In any case, he didn't sell the dance.

If it was a plan, someone should have been said after "my what now" when GH voted him "for voting for dp101". Like, there were other dance steps involved in that tango, and he didn't continue any of those steps.

That's what I remember.

So that brings me back to Csargo.

[Askthepizzaguy]

But like with Xiahou:

When I search my swiss cheese memory banks, I do not recall three wolves pushing their partner on day one, all reacting around the same time to the same series of easily attackable posts.

Clarifying

I mean, out of the hundreds and hundreds of games I've played. The closest I get to that is fancy plays on like 2+2 forums, or perhaps a game I wasn't even in on Dragonmount where the wolf team all piled on one partner d1, taking turns calling a series of posts of that person scummy, when not a ton of other people even scum read those posts.

I remember common tactics. Stuff I've seen used to pull the wool over the eyes of towns, successfully, repeatedly.

Stuff like how Xiahou went after Zack on day one, and then GH, and then Csargo all game long, showing no concern about changing the game state, is too passive. It puts all the power into the hands of townies who tinfoil.

Bussing all your partners is not enough. People tinfoil and say "well he must have KNOWN they were guilty".

It's not a winning plan, and everyone knows it instinctively when they're mafia. It's when they're town that they forget such a plan doesn't ever happen. Not often and it doesn't win games when it happens. For this very reason.

Xiahou is dead. All his town credit died with him. And he was ALWAYS dying this game, for that very reason.

It's not enough. Simply pointing at all the scums is not enough. There has to be something more.

Xiahou had no visible process that looked like solving to most people. There was no SELL.

What sold me was that he had no sell. Because that no sell, is townie as

Even with my back against the wall, with 2 shots and 2 suspects, I don't put him as one, except reluctantly and by force.

I hated the cases against him, because they all were wrong in my experience.

Wolves don't do that.

Like with that example, I do not remember a wolf team all scum reading and then attacking, voting, and encouraging to vote a partner based on a series of attackable posts on day 1 which almost no one was scum reading but them.

I used to write down post patterns, verbal tics, and confirmed mafia strategies about 6 years ago or so, and put it in a big database. I'd refer to it in my notes, and I never published it. I called it "SkyNet".

Eventually I just committed SkyNet to memory, and the stuff that didn't end up being reliable tells, I ended up forgetting.

But what I remember, is basically every single gambit, plan, or strategy that wolf teams have used over something like 300+ games. I can tell you when I haven't seen something.

I can tell you when I have never seen Logic be passive aggressive as a townie, on instinct, for example. What people do to win games, that much I remember.

I don't remember that kind of bussing very often, except in rare examples on sites with very different processes and meta, making Cuth and GH/Zack/Logic's plan to distance from Cuth or get credit for lynching him over Logic, less likely. And when I've seen it, it has iffy results.

But, I can't rule it out completely.

What I can say is that Csargo's plan, I've seen that plan dozens and dozens of times probably, making it a far more likely plan that was put into action.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Either the lover team dies tonight, or they do not. They can't be the target if Csargo is mafia.

If the mafia is in the lover team, they can shoot me tonight, they could shoot dp, they could even be extra creative and shoot Cuth, just to really mess with minds. But the odds say shoot me or dp.

That's a winning plan. As such, I predict a winning plan will continue to play out.

[Askthepizzaguy]

When Monty was up there in people's towns, especially mine, and it looked unlikely that he might die, he should have become a valid nightkill target.

Csargo, less so. He never really struck anyone as lock townie.

And mafia don't want to do enough to get them lock townie status on day one, even by bussing partners hard, like I've been saying. Then their lack of death afterward has to be explained.

But the dead scums didn't really push hard onto either Monty or Csargo, if I remember correctly.

Doing so would cause a townie and a fellow scumbag to flip.

So they were never shot at, and they were never really pressed by the wolves, in a dangerous way. And they're both still alive, with the kills and the lynches all landing outside of both of them by pure chance?

There is a dark force acting against the will of the town all game.

That dark force is made up of: The gambits/strategies/tactics and spew, deliberate or not, of the dead wolves, and the people they suggested needed to die. Plus, the night kills. Plus, who people suggest need to be lynched.

That dark force surrounds the lover team. It has been protecting them all game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

All of those factors, including who Montmorency suggested to lynch, or to suggest the tie on day one, and later, when he claimed and it saved Csargo from being under suspicion.

Monty is either wittingly or unwittingly a part of that dark force. Even though he rings true as a townie to me, his actions help direct the lynch away from Csargo. Even with the best of intentions.

There was no dark force protecting Xiahou, none that protected Cuth. Both were POE and all the kills and lynches that happened, and the arguments that happened ever since Zack died, have all been subtly pushing it so that eventually, both Xiahou and Cuth would end up dead.

That is the darkness that is pushing against the light of the town.

And you extinguished Xiahou's candle, despite all my efforts. I had two candles. Now I have one. Tomorrow, I will have none.

But I promise you that the dark side surrounds Csargo and Monty. And Monty is a townie.

Again, Monty.

You have the power to save the town you love. You must choose.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I know the dark side, Monty.

In order to become a complete and wise (??? debatable after this performance) leader of the town. In order to win games as scum, I have learned as much as I can about winning strategies.

Slaan was right, my town game a little iffy. But my scum game is on point.

I know how I'd win this game if I were a wolf. I know the winning plan. Even if I am only a slightly better than rand guesser at who is executing the winning plan, I know what the plan is.

I have in my hands the Death Star plans. Let me show you them.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Blue- Why you would say this, is because there needs to be a logical argument why they wouldn't do that if they're both scum, that is not just based on reading them town. Something I do if I'm scum or null reading my own buddies, is I put the thought out there that disconnects them. I don't have to town read them to defend them. I can put out the logic as to why they're not scum together without committing to a town read. You've enough experience to know this is something scums can do as well.

Orange- more logic suggesting the strategy is self-defeating. Again, don't have to town read either one to make this argument, and it dissuades people from pushing there.

Green- They don't need to get a lynch, just look unaware a scum is about to flip, and by your own admission in orange, that shouldn't have even been their actual motive. We've all pretty much decided they were betting the farm that their cfd antics would be seen as distancing themselves from the eventual scum flip. Their posts around that time indicate so, they simply bet on acting shocked that crazy pizza was actually right on his total non-case on some random low poster. That was the play. So you're arguing out of both sides of your mouth here. They can't be scum because it doesn't make sense as a strategy (blue/orange), but they also can't be scum because it is obviously not that strategy (green).

That's the biggest issue.

red- Well you're suggesting they're both town. I don't think you can really believe that. Some suspicion has to go their way if you're towning, Csargo. I think. Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like you've got better instincts than that. And logic, when you present any.

Teal- Again, you're arguing that it can't make sense as a strategy to save Logic which means that they shouldn't be scum here. This is how you argue in their defense without giving them a town read.

It's defensible, and it needed to be argued to dissuade the town from killing them. Even when they flip, if they flip, it doesn't immediately go back to you, because your reasoning is neutral and reasonable, you were not suggesting they were town, just that they don't make sense.

Agreed, doesn't make sense. But it's what happened. And you were telling us that you did not think it was possible. That's a good way of defending a partner so you can vote elsewhere. You're dissuading people by example rather than trying to change minds.

I can see all of this coming out of Scum Csargo's brain, easily.

Doesn't mean you're scum, but it puts serious doubts about a town read I had on you.

These are the death star plans.

And you're in the chambers of the Sith Lord, watching the final destruction of the alliance, and the end of our townie rebellion.

You're watching it all unfold.

All of the townies will die. You don't know the power of the dark side.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And as for me. Well, I've fulfilled my destiny.

I killed all those Sith Lords, and then put a shit town of Jedis to the sword, trying to find the last Sith Lord.

I am become Darth Vader.

I cannot overthrow the emperor alone. Join me, and together we can rule the galaxy.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Star Wars. I am a fan of them.

[Csargo]

Well GL with your tinfoil, tell me when you want to lynch someone who might be mafia. I honestly don’t understand how you can look at my D1 this game and not see me as innocent, but I guess it’ll be revealed soon.

It's not me, it's not ATPG/Monty, that means it has to be you or Cuth. If it's Monty then he's played an exceptional game, and until ATPG brought it up last round, I didn't know lovers could be scum/town. I thought the whole point was I had a town bro to bro down with. I find it extremely unlikely that our pairing could be scum/town though, considering the apparent setup of this game. It's possible, but I don't think it's likely.

As far as your D1 is concerned, there was a lot that was good, but there was a number of things that weren't in my opinion. Your initial response to reinoe's opinion on you was good, but later posts that were targeted at reinoe just weren't. The post you made townreading Zack/GH, and trying to backpedal out of your Logic vote.

I'm basically going to ignore ATPG for the rest of this game now. I don't see the point in arguing the same things with him over and over.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The alternative universe is one where the lovers were to somehow die tonight, leaving me with Cuth and dp as suspects.

Under such a scenario, Cuth gets a Poe vote and dp wins the game regardless of alignment.

[Askthepizzaguy]

And option 3, dp is slain.

It's the same as if I were slain.

Csargo is the one with the winning plan from where I sit, not Cuth.

All he needs is Monty voting with him. That wins. All he needs is Monty's very townie voice arguing on his behalf.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Your quicktopic might as well be called "the pocket".

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Montmorency

Csargo started the day right away, alongside GH, Zack, Pizza, Winston, and me. He had a number of D1 interactions with Zack and others that could be seen as distancing, or slips. However, his vote on Logic shortly before EOD could be seen as decisive. Or it could be seen as bussing. That means Zack was telling the truth when he said Logic was bussed - in a way. That could be reverse-psychology ("Zack lied!") to misdirect away from Csargo.

Cuth came in shortly after Logic came under threat, poking at DP. They had a conversation, then Zack started hounding Cuth over alleged DP shade. Soon after, Logic arrived to sheep Zack on this accusation. But then he voted Kage. Then Zack seems nullish on Cuth, calls in GH, and GH makes a few reads and votes Cuth. GH makes his infamous Aladdin exhortation that Kage vote Cuth. Kage follows. Pizza and others defend Cuth, time passes, and we hear no more about him from the scum. They move on to Barto. Then Cuth returns to challenge all this stuff, and to townread Zack. So this is all also interpretable as distancing. (In the middle of Cuth's return, Xiahou arrives to vote Zack incidentally). When Cuth still has two votes on him (GH and Kage), Kage asks Csargo what he thinks of Cuth. Csargo sees it as just typical Cuth, not worth pursuing. As a result, Kage switches onto Logic and soon after, GH quasi-rands into voting Manasi. Cuth is not mentioned again for the rest of the day (other than to be moderately scum-read ("but improving") by GH. He only posts again near EOD to shade Monty-Zack and a "discredit-y" post by Logic. He never votes, and ends as the only non-voter of the day.

Csargo's level of engagement and nature of content was consistent after D1. He did post less, but it was proportional; almost everyone was posting less, especially after 3 scum had flipped.

Cuth dropped away almost entirely, whether it was a strategy, or anti-strategy, or just his feeling on the game and RL during that time.

In the end, I have Csargo's QT presence, but I don't have the same for Cuth. On the face of things, both Csargo and Cuth acted consistent with being on a scum-team with Logic/Zack/GH. Maybe if I had no relationship with Csargo, or even if we were lovers w/o a QT, I would suggest Csargo should be lynched today, and Cuth/Xiahou resolved only after. But seeing Csargo in private puts an amount of his D1 activity in a much better light, along with independently towny thoughts, so this is what I have to consider.

I have to vote Cuth over Csargo. If you think it works out better, I could be brought to vote Cuth over Xiahou today.

But I just don't see how I vote Csargo at this point.

You should have vigged Csargo when you had the shot, then dragged out Zack for all the spew.

It was already in your mind, Monty.

Search your feelings.

Cuth is served up for you on a platter. He's even arguing that it can be dp101 tomorrow.

You have a majority read in your mind, what you've been convinced of all game long by being in Csargo's pocket, alone, with him feeding you reasons to think he's townie, away from prying eyes.

He has convinced you to lynch everywhere else.

The murders have landed everywhere else.

The scum's suspicions landed everywhere else. You and he were never seriously threatened, even based on a day or two info.

When the scums suggested there was bussing, that conclusion was always directed at choxorn, not Csargo.

All of these dark, invisible forces have been pushing you into a majority read that Csargo is town, and there are better lynches.

But inside your own process, you too saw that Csargo has what looks like a plan.

You just didn't trust yourself and couldn't pull the trigger on him. The grip he has on you is strong.

Flip your read and believe it, really believe in it.

You do not walk out of this game alive, no matter what you do.

The fear of loss is a path to the dark side. Death is a natural part of life.

Train yourself to let go of everything that you fear to lose.

[Cuthillius]

if it's either dp or you you literally have the game in a bag no matter what

[Askthepizzaguy]

if it's either dp or you you literally have the game in a bag no matter what

I feel we were on the right track in the moments before the lovers claimed.

People's reads at that point in time were correct, I think.

We've been tearing each other apart frantically ever since that time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If any of DP or Fredwood are scum, they are the greatest of all time.

Those isos cannot be faked.

Xiahou could conceivably fake his town game, because it's easier. You just have to copy and paste the structure and keep your head down and hope Slaan doesn't lynch you.

But he looks great.

Cuth just got spewed mega hard by GH and every other scum, so.

Chox is lock.

Those are 5 locks plus me. What else is there to do except lynch the other three.

After this point, Csargo suggested that Slaan and Xiahou become the next two lynches, and since I started up on Csargo the next day, Monty claimed.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Slaan/Xiahou/not sure

Csargo's POE.

[Askthepizzaguy]

i think it comes down to at this point in the game

if any of these players, excepting xiahou let's say, just did a fantastic job of looking like a villager

the game's pretty much theirs

and

it's bad to go against poe, and there's not really enough of a reason to

so

basically just

we're here now and... we'll see what happens

A bad thing for wolf!Cuth to be arguing when he's the very last person in the POE.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Dp101 @Cuthillius

My legacy read is to lynch Csargo.

And you'll have to talk Monty into it. On this, all depends.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If we lynch Cuth, and he turns out to be scum, I'm going to change my avatar on this forum to the same Weird Al tinfoil image as Phighter's on MU.

Don't lynch Cuth.

[Cuthillius]

I feel we were on the right track in the moments before the lovers claimed.

People's reads at that point in time were correct, I think.

We've been tearing each other apart frantically ever since that time.

that was my point with mortal kombat

i don't know how familiar you are with the events in that game

but the people who were mechanically villagery weren't acting their alignment

and a lot of the people who weren't mechanically villagery were just astoundingly villagery aside from that

but we had to keep lynching though each other, and it was awful

we even lynched outside the poe once or twice, but that was... even worse

but just like over and over going mechanically

and there was a peeked godfather when there shouldn't have been

and we lost

but generally that's not going to be the case

have to evaluate risk/reward

usually it's bad

here i'm at the point where i

like

it's either that or dp's pulling an incredible deepwolf

and i... really don't want to commit either way, because i don't feel like it's easy to be right here

if that makes sense

[Dp101]

@Dp101 @Cuthillius

My legacy read is to lynch Csargo.

And you'll have to talk Monty into it. On this, all depends.

I'm rather ok with this at this point, literally the only thing against is why on earth is he going after me instead of cuth, when cuth is 10x as attackable.

[Dp101]

I feel we were on the right track in the moments before the lovers claimed.

People's reads at that point in time were correct, I think.

We've been tearing each other apart frantically ever since that time.

I also agree fully with this. Clearing them was a mistake. @Montmorency, which of you suggested the claim, and if it was Csargo, what reason did he give?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm rather ok with this at this point, literally the only thing against is why on earth is he going after me instead of cuth, when cuth is 10x as attackable.

Because there are arguments, long forgotten, as to why Cuth is lock town.

The way the dead woofs behaved toward him makes little sense. If it's distancing, it was executed in a way that's wholly unfamiliar to me.

There needs to be an alternative to Cuth that he can vote, if for some reason, Cuth isn't an easy roll over and die lynch tomorrow.

Plus, paranoia generically looks townie.

Csargo's game is a generic looking game.

In XCOM, he went all out. He had WIM and vigor and humor and joie de vivre. I don't expect him to ever replicate that. I never once held that against him.

Here, he just looks like he is going through the motions. I identified scummy behavior from him on day one. I let him go because I was chasing too many rabbits, and under no pressure, he did okay for a while.

I think he flinched specifically when I attacked Logic.