An interesting situation occurred in my current Numidian Campaign.
Tarsus (that hotbed of rebellion) was accidentally infected with plague and that seemed to send the public order into freefall (70% rebellion).
So I decided to minimise the rebellious forces and basically demolished all military buildings. Good idea?
Actually NO!
When I was kicked out it replaced me with 22 (twenty two) units of peasants, each of offence 12 and defence 13.
This got me thinking - what is the algorithm the AI uses to create rebellious forces. (NB it is not guaranteed, I have had cities rebel that when I loaded the game in again and did nothing did not rebel in the 2nd version - so presumably it is probability generated.)
Current thought
1) The total strength of the rebellious forces must be greater than the garrison. AND
2) The total number of units is based on the amount of money that the city generates in absolute terms - the wealthier the city, the worse the rebel stack.
if that is the case then the best procedure when a city is expected to rebel would be to destroy the wealth-creating buildings rather than the lower-grade military ones.
Anyone got any corroborative data?
Addenda
When adding to the recruitment queue of a certain town, I noticed that a symbol underneath the city suddenly appeared - first it was red, then amber, then green. I hadn't noticed this before but I suspect it indicates what the public order of the town will be next turn (or possibly when all the units queued are trained. This is different from the immediate public order that appears when you look at the city details.
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