UK Politics Thread

[rory_20_uk]

It doesn't help that the minister in charge of identifying Brexit opportunities, who is one of the leaders of the movement, and who said that we should be waiting 50 years before drawing conclusions (see also the argument posted here that we should wait 40 years before having another vote), is on record as saying that we should not be measuring the effects of Brexit. Saying so in his capacity as minister for identifying Brexit opportunities.

First off, I would rather an assessment done by, say, the ONS.

Secondly, if Mogg had done a report is there any outcome other than "abject, crippling failure" that you'd accept?

[Pannonian]

First off, I would rather an assessment done by, say, the ONS.

Secondly, if Mogg had done a report is there any outcome other than "abject, crippling failure" that you'd accept?

I wouldn't mind an assessment done by a respected organisation either. However, isn't it a tad concerning that the government, who are the people with the power to decide these things, are fundamentally against any kind of trustworthy assessment?

[rory_20_uk]

I wouldn't mind an assessment done by a respected organisation either. However, isn't it a tad concerning that the government, who are the people with the power to decide these things, are fundamentally against any kind of trustworthy assessment?

Drugs are still banned in this country. Evidence for years has demonstrated that this is poor policy.
Prostitution is still poorly defined, with brothels illegal although have been shown to protect women.
An annual assessment of the budget - if done, it doesn't seem to make politicians change course.

Yet no calls for a review or assessment (not that one is really required since the evidence is so strong). And these have some pretty simple variables to take into account.

To decide whether Brexit was "good" / "bad" you'd first need to define what these two things are and then disentangle such things as COVID and the Ukrainian war. How many Civil Servants would you like working on this undertaking? How many million is it worth to know - sorry, guess?

[Pannonian]

Drugs are still banned in this country. Evidence for years has demonstrated that this is poor policy.
Prostitution is still poorly defined, with brothels illegal although have been shown to protect women.
An annual assessment of the budget - if done, it doesn't seem to make politicians change course.

Yet no calls for a review or assessment (not that one is really required since the evidence is so strong). And these have some pretty simple variables to take into account.

To decide whether Brexit was "good" / "bad" you'd first need to define what these two things are and then disentangle such things as COVID and the Ukrainian war. How many Civil Servants would you like working on this undertaking? How many million is it worth to know - sorry, guess?

Here's a list of promises from that Leave.eu campaign video. At least some of them are quantifiable.

How will you benefit when we leave the EU?

You'll benefit from better care provided by our NHS thanks to the reallocation of funds from the EU budget

Controlled immigration will lead to reduced waiting times for you and your loved ones

Excess funding that would otherwise be sent to Brussels could also be directed to education

Your wages will rise thanks to better controlled immigration, which will lead to less competition for jobs

Your weekly food shop will become cheaper

Food prices will no longer be inflated by agricultural policies controlled by the EU

You and your family will benefit from a resurgent economy led by new and flourishing small businesses following the removal of burdensome EU regulations and red tape

With less pressure on housing, younger generations will also find it easier to get on the housing ladder

Politicians, both local and national, will become more accountable, helping to strengthen your community and others

Especially those most damaged by EU policies like farming, fishing, and industries like steel

A more prosperous and safer future awaits us outside the EU

A vote to leave is a vote for a brighter future for you, your family and your community

From that list, I can define the following questions.

1. Has the NHS had increased funding?
2. Has immigration decreased?
3. Have waiting times decreased?
4. Has education funding increased?
5. Have wages increased?
6. Have food prices decreased?
7. Has the economy improved?
8. Is it easier to get on the housing ladder?
9. Are politicians more accountable?
10. Have prospects improved for the fishing, agriculture and steel industries?

AFAIK the answer is a clear no to all the above, based on a verbatim list of Leave's promises. If there is a yes somewhere in there, it's a very, very qualified yes amongst an answer that's mostly no. If it were a manifesto, one would compare the promises with the results. Is there any reason why we should not compare the above promises with the results so far?

[Furunculus]

1. Has the NHS had increased funding?
...
AFAIK the answer is a clear no...

Seriously?

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/project...ell/nhs-budget
https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-su...-data-analysis

[rory_20_uk]

Here's a list of promises from that Leave.eu campaign video. At least some of them are quantifiable.



From that list, I can define the following questions.

1. Has the NHS had increased funding?
2. Has immigration decreased?
3. Have waiting times decreased?
4. Has education funding increased?
5. Have wages increased?
6. Have food prices decreased?
7. Has the economy improved?
8. Is it easier to get on the housing ladder?
9. Are politicians more accountable?
10. Have prospects improved for the fishing, agriculture and steel industries?

AFAIK the answer is a clear no to all the above, based on a verbatim list of Leave's promises. If there is a yes somewhere in there, it's a very, very qualified yes amongst an answer that's mostly no. If it were a manifesto, one would compare the promises with the results. Is there any reason why we should not compare the above promises with the results so far?

Why should we, post COVID, with the biggest war in Europe since WW2, not do a direct comparison...? And these are the two most obvious confounding variables. As I thought all you want is for a statement "Brexit caused everything bad!" And you'd be happy. I'm sure you realise that leave.eu was merely the propaganda of a group - certainly not a government position. But each time it is trotted out like some sort of predefined study primary endpoint.

Right at this moment in time, if the government started printing money like it was water (like in the good old Tony-Brown days where boom and bust was declared dead) then each and every one could be turned in to a "yes" - merely at the risk of massive long term damage to the country.

It neglects one obvious one from the list:

Is the UK a sovereign state again?

Where the answer is yes - and you can look around the world how much countries have been prepared to suffer for independence.

[Pannonian]

Genuine newspaper headline (Metro, 12th August 2022):

"PM turns up for meeting"

[Montmorency]

Its all going really well in the UK at the moment