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Thread: UK Politics Thread

  1. #661
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Iraq happened 20 years ago in another country. Suella Braverman is redefining what is happening now and in the future in the UK. One of them is more relevant than the other.

    Not that I supported Iraq back then. I was against every one of Blair's foreign adventures.
    It happened 20 years ago in the UK about another country.

    What Suella is doing is similar to what I do in my job - checking if things are OK to do. Any idiot can just say "no". She is asking them to mitigate risk and be "solutions focused". Y'know - helpful.

    Why not 100% lawful? Because laws are often written poorly with vague language, are out of date and often overlap. Expecting each lawyer to know exactly through this mess what any judge might think in the event of a theoretical complaint is impossible. And frankly, if they were that good they'd probably be in private practice. This of itself doesn't mean she's advocating for bringing back slavery and the Star court or extrajudicial killings.

    My ultimate point is that under the current system, people like Blair can get a legal opinion, be told what he's doing is illegal, demand a rewrite one to say its 100% legal and based on this move on. This is if anything worse since it pretends risk doesn't exist.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  2. #662
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Case in point - Kier was 100% certain he'd done nothing wrong and it turns out he's made 8 minor errors registering some small gifts. Humans are fallible - why do politicians appear to have all the answers or perfect recall (Boris is the outlier given ambiguity avoids the criminal threshold for guilt).

    And in other news the Heads of the NHS have criticised the two candidates for not having a plan to fix the NHS.

    Just let that sink in.

    A large number of people, all who are paid easily in the 6 figures with final salary pensions whose sole purpose is sorting out the NHS is bleating two people who have never worked in healthcare and not been the health minister don't have an answer for them! They should be clamoring with proposals and ideas that their decades of high paid strategic leadership created that were refused by the DoH under Johnson. Well, "should" in the fantasy world where those at the top are there for their ability.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

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  3. #663
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Clip surfaces of Sunak criticising Labour for putting funding into deprived areas, and that he (Sunak) moved funding away from that.

  4. #664
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Video from the Leave campaign

    Absolutely none of it has come true after Leave won. Just about all of it has gone the opposite of what was promised in that video.

    Is there any way of holding Brexiteers to what they had promised?

    How will you benefit when we leave the EU?

    You'll benefit from better care provided by our NHS thanks to the reallocation of funds from the EU budget

    Controlled immigration will lead to reduced waiting times for you and your loved ones

    Excess funding that would otherwise be sent to Brussels could also be directed to education

    Your wages will rise thanks to better controlled immigration, which will lead to less competition for jobs

    Your weekly food shop will become cheaper

    Food prices will no longer be inflated by agricultural policies controlled by the EU

    You and your family will benefit from a resurgent economy led by new and flourishing small businesses following the removal of burdensome EU regulations and red tape

    With less pressure on housing, younger generations will also find it easier to get on the housing ladder

    Politicians, both local and national, will become more accountable, helping to strengthen your community and others

    Especially those most damaged by EU policies like farming, fishing, and industries like steel

    A more prosperous and safer future awaits us outside the EU

    A vote to leave is a vote for a brighter future for you, your family and your community

  5. #665
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Absolutely none of it has come true after Leave won. Just about all of it has gone the opposite of what was promised in that video.

    Is there any way of holding Brexiteers to what they had promised?


    i'm a leave voter, and i am quite content with the decision six years later.

    are you manufacturing a problem that doesn't exist...?
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  6. #666
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post


    i'm a leave voter, and i am quite content with the decision six years later.

    are you manufacturing a problem that doesn't exist...?
    A lot of the above is measurable using objective metrics (cost before and after, investment before and after, etc.). Are we allowed to measure them and compare what has become with what was promised? Or does your approval override objective assessment?

  7. #667
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    A lot of the above is measurable using objective metrics (cost before and after, investment before and after, etc.). Are we allowed to measure them and compare what has become with what was promised? Or does your approval override objective assessment?
    Sure, fill your boots.

    A few interesting indicators with comparable EU nations:
    Manufacturing PMI
    GDP growth since 2016
    Unemployment
    Investment in tech and fin-tech sectors
    Inflation
    % non-performing debts in the banking sector
    climate change goals - inc coal use**


    https://external-preview.redd.it/IE_...=webp&1de1b0af
    Last edited by Furunculus; 08-06-2022 at 19:16.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  8. #668
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Sure, fill your boots.

    A few interesting indicators with comparable EU nations:
    Manufacturing PMI
    GDP growth since 2016
    Unemployment
    Investment in tech and fin-tech sectors
    Inflation
    % non-performing debts in the banking sector
    climate change goals - inc coal use**


    https://external-preview.redd.it/IE_...=webp&1de1b0af
    Why are we comparing with the EU again, when the promises were made about how we would improve our prospects, ie. comparing with ourselves? We're out of the EU now. Why are you still obsessed with our relationship with the EU?

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  9. #669
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Why are we comparing with the EU again, when the promises were made about how we would improve our prospects, ie. comparing with ourselves? We're out of the EU now. Why are you still obsessed with our relationship with the EU?
    because it helps account for the effects of externalities.
    small things like covid, ukraine, etc.

    how would you like to do it?
    perhaps via CER modelling of putative uk doppler economy absent brexit - using the US as the basis (during a time when the worlds reserve currency doubled its balance sheet with money printing)...
    Last edited by Furunculus; Yesterday at 09:22.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  10. #670
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    because it helps account for the effects of externalities.
    small things like covid, ukraine, etc.

    how would you like to do it?
    perhaps via CER modelling of putative uk doppler economy absent brexit - using the US as the basis (during a time when the worlds reserve currency doubled its balance sheet with money printing)...
    I remember one of the arguments being made for Brexit (by PVC here?) is that it would force us to stop looking to the EU for excuses, that we would be forced to own up to the effects of our own decisions. I transcribed the list of Leave promises, and the first response is to compare with the EU. We entered a pandemic, and the government's response was to say that we wouldn't have been able to do what we did within the EU, and to compare our vaccination results with the EU. Ukraine was invaded by Russia, and our government compares our response with the EU.

  11. #671
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    I remember one of the arguments being made for Brexit (by PVC here?) is that it would force us to stop looking to the EU for excuses, that we would be forced to own up to the effects of our own decisions.
    He would be absolutely right. No argument there.

    What does this have to do with using comparable nations to which we economically connected when we measure them and compare what has become of the UK as a result of the variable here; brexit - which is your interest here, correct?
    Last edited by Furunculus; Yesterday at 15:32.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  12. #672

    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    I can't tell you what your link reports, but for establishing EU membership status as a substantial factor in the development in a variable, the least you need is the progression of domestic data, i.e. the past and current performance. For example, if one believes that the UK has posted both higher GDP growth and inflation than its counterparts have for many years (though I'm not sure the former is actually the case), it suggests underlying structural factors are at play in which EU membership is not germane either way. If the point is to identify consequences.
    Last edited by Montmorency; Yesterday at 20:19.
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  13. #673
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I can't tell you what your link reports, but for establishing EU membership status as a substantial factor in the development in a variable, the least you need is the progression of domestic data, i.e. the past and current performance. For example, if one believes that the UK has posted both higher GDP growth and inflation than its counterparts have for many years (though I'm not sure the former is actually the case), it suggests underlying structural factors are at play in which EU membership is not germane either way. If the point is to identify consequences.
    It doesn't help that the minister in charge of identifying Brexit opportunities, who is one of the leaders of the movement, and who said that we should be waiting 50 years before drawing conclusions (see also the argument posted here that we should wait 40 years before having another vote), is on record as saying that we should not be measuring the effects of Brexit. Saying so in his capacity as minister for identifying Brexit opportunities.

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I can't tell you what your link reports,
    the link was no more than cheeky fun, pointing at the poor policy platform that can happen inside the sainted eu.
    pointing in particular at germany.

    "but for establishing EU membership status as a substantial factor in the development in a variable, the least you need is the progression of domestic data"


    the point is more the opposite, to poke fun at 'the sky is falling in' narrative.
    i don't know if you catch the usual media narrative of 'brexit is disaster'...?

    well, fine, but show me how we suffering so egregiously...
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  15. #675

    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    the link was no more than cheeky fun, pointing at the poor policy platform that can happen inside the sainted eu.
    pointing in particular at germany.

    "but for establishing EU membership status as a substantial factor in the development in a variable, the least you need is the progression of domestic data"


    the point is more the opposite, to poke fun at 'the sky is falling in' narrative.
    i don't know if you catch the usual media narrative of 'brexit is disaster'...?

    well, fine, but show me how we suffering so egregiously...
    Frankly I haven't looked at a single analysis of the effect of Brexit on the British economy since it was enacted, but they would be the place to start.

    I was saying the link is broken btw.

    Error 403 Forbidden
    Forbidden

    Error 54113
    Details: cache-bos4630-BOS 1659911197 2186096025
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  16. #676
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    the link was no more than cheeky fun, pointing at the poor policy platform that can happen inside the sainted eu.
    pointing in particular at germany.

    "but for establishing EU membership status as a substantial factor in the development in a variable, the least you need is the progression of domestic data"


    the point is more the opposite, to poke fun at 'the sky is falling in' narrative.
    i don't know if you catch the usual media narrative of 'brexit is disaster'...?

    well, fine, but show me how we suffering so egregiously...
    Doesn't the winning side get to enact their agenda? I listed the promises made in the video. How do they stack up with the reality?

    It really is remarkable how a winning side that has won the last few elections/referendum continues to point at the losing side for everything they haven't done. The Tories have a landslide majority. The opposition can do absolutely nothing to stop them from enacting their agenda, as seen in how the government has been steadily eroding what we understand to be the constitution.

  17. #677
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Frankly I haven't looked at a single analysis of the effect of Brexit on the British economy since it was enacted, but they would be the place to start.

    I was saying the link is broken btw.
    Just comparing with your US politics. Excluding the Speaker and Sinn Fein, the Tories had 365 MPs versus the Opposition's 277, a majority of 88 (out of 642).

    Using the same proportions, if the Democrats control the chief executive, have 59 more representatives than the opposition, and 12 more senators than the opposition, would you expect them to be effective in enacting their flagship policy? If they do all sorts of stuff regarding the constitution, but do not enact their flagship policy, what would your conclusion be?

  18. #678
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Frankly I haven't looked at a single analysis of the effect of Brexit on the British economy since it was enacted, but they would be the place to start.

    I was saying the link is broken btw.
    I don't disagree, but the problem here is retreiving the signal from the noise.
    i.e. looking to isolate the effects of brexit on UK econono-social performance from other events like covid and ukraine.
    This is why i suggested comparitive results with similar economies that were similarly effected by those same events.

    Re: the link - it was a infographic map of europe showing coal use (both brown and hard) for european nations.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comm...rts_in_europe/
    Last edited by Furunculus; Today at 09:52.
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  19. #679
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    "Let's keep Brexit safe", says one of the candidates of the Tory leadership contest.

    It's been 6 years and 2 elections since Leave's victory, and they still push it as a political issue. They've had 3 years with a landslide majority, potentially another 2 years with that landslide majority. Why is it still an issue?

  20. #680
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Doesn't the winning side get to enact their agenda? I listed the promises made in the video. How do they stack up with the reality?

    It really is remarkable how a winning side that has won the last few elections/referendum continues to point at the losing side for everything they haven't done. The Tories have a landslide majority. The opposition can do absolutely nothing to stop them from enacting their agenda, as seen in how the government has been steadily eroding what we understand to be the constitution.
    This is kind of the point of the argument over the NIP - the winning side isn't getting to enact their agenda.
    Which is exactly what the EU intended to happen - their ambition has always been dynamic alignment.

    The problem in NI is evidence of this: how do you meaningfully diverge without leaving NI behind?
    By allowing Single Market regs in NI how do you discourage regulatory reach back from NI into British markets?

    Sticky problems, yes.
    Problems caused by May with her assenting to 'sequencing' and an asinine interpretation of 'no hard border', yes.
    But the problem is right there in front of us.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: UK Politics Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    It doesn't help that the minister in charge of identifying Brexit opportunities, who is one of the leaders of the movement, and who said that we should be waiting 50 years before drawing conclusions (see also the argument posted here that we should wait 40 years before having another vote), is on record as saying that we should not be measuring the effects of Brexit. Saying so in his capacity as minister for identifying Brexit opportunities.
    First off, I would rather an assessment done by, say, the ONS.

    Secondly, if Mogg had done a report is there any outcome other than "abject, crippling failure" that you'd accept?

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

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